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Last Updated February 8, 2023Health and Education
Inferring COVID-19 Vaccine Attitudes from Twitter Data: An Application to the Arabic Speaking WorldRoy van der Weide, Policy Research Working Paper 10165, World Bank, Washington, DC, September 2022
Financing Vaccine Equity: Funding for Day-Zero of the Next PandemicRuchir Agarwal, Tristan Reed,Policy Research Working Paper 10067, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2022
COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official Death Counts and Excess DeathsGabrielDemombynes, Damien B. C. M. De Walque, Paul Michael Gubbins, Beatric Piedad Urdinola, Jeremy Henri Maurice Veillard, Policy Research Working Paper 9807, World Bank, Washington, DC, October 2021
Indirect Effects on Maternal and Child Mortality from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Disruptions in Healthcare Utilization in 18 Low- and Middle-Income CountriesTashrik Ahmed,Timothy Roberton,Monitoring of Essential Health Services Team, Jean Patrick Alfred,Martina Baye, Mamoutou Diabate,Helen Kiarie,Paul Mbaka,Nur Ali Mohamud, Charles Mwansambo, Youssoupha Ndiaye, Charles Nzelu, Anthony Adofo Ofosu, Tsihory Raharison, Husnia Sadat, Francis Smart, Helal Uddin, Naod Wendrad, Chea Sanford Wesseh, Mohamad Lamine Yasane, Sylvain Yuma, Petra Vergeer, Peter M. Hansen, Jed Friedman, Gil Shapira, SSRN Preprint, September 2021
How many infants may have died in low-income and middle-income countries in 2020 due to the economic contraction accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic?GilShapira,Damiende Walque,JedFriedman, BMJ Open, August 2021
Policy Actions to Increase the Supply of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Short TermMamta Murthi and Tristan Reed,Research & Policy Brief 49, World Bank, Washington, DC,August 2021
Disruptions in maternal and child health service utilization during COVID-19: analysis from eight sub-Saharan African countriesGil Shapira, Tashrik Ahmed, Salom Henriette Paulette Drouard, Pablo Amor Fernandez, Eeshani Kandpal, Charles Nzelu, Chea Sanford Wesseh, Nur Ali Mohamud, Francis Smart, Charles Mwansambo, Martina L Baye, Mamatou Diabate, Sylvain Yuma, Munirat Ogunlayi, Rwema Jean De Dieu Rusatira, Tawab Hashemi, Petra Vergeer, Jed Friedman, Health Policy and Planning,czab064, June2021
Five Ways that COVID-19 Diagnostics Can Save Lives : Prioritizing Uses of Tests to Maximize Cost-EffectivenessTristan Reed,WilliamWaites, David Manheim,Damien B. C. M. de Walque, Chiara Vallini, Roberta V. Gatti, Timiothy B. Hallett. Research & Policy Brief 43, World Bank, Washington, DC,February 2021
How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022Ruchir Agarwal andTristan Reed,Policy Research Working Paper 9632, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2021
Modeling and Predicting the Spread of Covid-19: Comparative Results for the United States, the Philippines, and South AfricaSusmita Dasguptaand David Wheeler, Policy Research Working Paper 9419, World Bank, Washington, DC, October 2020
The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19Roberta V. Gatti, Paul Corral, Nicola Dehnen, Ritika DSouza, Juan Mejalenko, andSteven Pennings. Washington, DC: World Bank, September 2020
Remote-learning, Time-Use, and Mental Health of Ecuadorian High-School Students during the COVID-19 QuarantineIgor Asanov, Francisco Flores,David McKenzie, Mona Mensmann, and Mathis Schulte, Policy Research Working Paper 9252, World Bank, Washington, DC,May 2020
How Two Tests Can Help Contain COVID-19 and Revive the EconomyDamien De Walque, Jed Friedman, Roberta V. Gatti, and Aaditya Mattoo, Research & Policy Brief 29, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2020
Strengthening Public Health Systems: Policy Ideas from a Governance PerspectiveStuti Khemani, Sarang Chaudhary, and Thiago Scot, Policy Research Working Paper 9220, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2020
Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 PandemicKibrom A. Abay,Nishant Yonzan,Sikandra Kurdi, andKibrom Tafere, Policy Research Working Paper 10172, World Bank, Washington, DC, September 2022
The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown PoliciesLin Ma,GilShapira, Damien B. C. M. De Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, and Andrei A. Levchenko, Policy Research Working Paper 9677, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2021
Death and Destitution: The Global Distribution of Welfare Losses from the COVID-19 PandemicFrancisco H. G. Ferreira, Olivier Christian Brigitte Sterck, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, andBenoit Decerf, Policy Research Working Paper 9673, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2021
Assessing Response Fatigue in Phone Surveys: Experimental Evidence on Dietary Diversity in EthiopiaKibrom A. Abay, Guush Berhane, John Hoddinott, andKibrom Tafere,Policy Research Working Paper 9636, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2021
COVID-19 and Food Security in Ethiopia: Do Social Protection Programs Protect?Kibrom A. Abay, Guush Berhane, John Hoddinott, andKibrom Tafere, Policy Research Working Paper 9475, World Bank, Washington, DC, November 2020
Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the Covid-19 PandemicBenoit Decerf, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, and Olivier Sterck, Policy Research Working Paper 9277, World Bank, Washington, DC, June 2020
Least Protected, Most Affected: Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic ResilienceMaria Jos Urbina,Sandra V. Rozo,Andrs Moya, and Ana Mara Ibez, Policy Research Working Paper 10291, World Bank, Washington, DC, February 2023
Neither by Land nor by Sea: The Rise of Electronic Remittances during COVID-19Lelys Ileana Dinarte Diaz, David Jose Jaume, Eduardo Medina-Cortina, Hernan Winkler,Policy Research Working Paper 10057, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2022
Occupational Hazards: Why Migrants Faced Greater Economic and Health Risks during the COVID-19 PandemicLaurent Bossavie, Daniel Garrote Sanchez, Mattia Makovec, and Caglar Ozden, Policy Research Working Paper 9873, World Bank, Washington, DC, December 2021
How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to EuropeTijan L. Bah, CatiaBatista, FloreGubert, andDavid J.Mckenzie,Policy Research Working Paper 9658, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2021
Do Immigrants Push Natives towards Safer Jobs? Exposure to COVID-19 in the European UnionLaurent Bossavie, Daniel Garrote Sanchez, Mattia Makovec, andalar zden,Policy Research Working Paper 9500, World Bank, Washington, DC,December 2020
Who on Earth Can Work from Home?Daniel Garrote Sanchez, Nicolas Gomez Parra,Caglar Ozden, Bob Rijkers, Mariana Viollaz, and Hernan Winkler, Policy Research Working Paper 9347, World Bank, Washington, DC, July 2020
Which Jobs Are Most Vulnerable to COVID-19? What an Analysis of the European Union RevealsDaniel Garrote Sanchez, Nicolas Gomez Parra,Caglar Ozden, andBob Rijkers,Research & Policy Brief 34, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2020
The Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity Generation: An Empirical InvestigationChang Shen,Anna Alberini, andGovinda Timilsina, Policy Research Working Paper 10116, World Bank, Washington, DC, June 2022
How Well Can Real-Time Indicators Track the Economic Impacts of a Crisis Like COVID-19?Gi Khan Ten,Josh Merfeld,Kibrom Tafere,David Newhouse, andUtz Pape, Policy Research Working Paper 10080, World Bank, Washington, DC, June 2022
The Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19Francisco J.Buera,Roberto N.Fattal Jaef, P. Andres Neumeyer, Hugo Hopenhayn, and YongseokShin,Policy Research Working Paper 9631, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2021
Growth of Global Corporate Debt: Main Facts and Policy ChallengesFacundo Abraham, Juan Jose Cortina Lorente, andSergio L. Schmukler,Policy Research Working Paper 9394, World Bank, Washington, DC, September 2020
Recovery from the Pandemic Crisis: Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term ConcernsNorman V. Loayza, Apurva Sanghi, Nurlina Binti Shaharuddin, and Lucie Johanna Wuester,Research & Policy Brief 38, World Bank, Washington, DC, September 2020
Banking Sector Performance During the COVID-19 CrisisAsli Demirguc-Kunt,Alvaro Pedraza Morales, andClaudia Ruiz,Policy Research Working Paper 9363, World Bank, Washington, DC, August 2020
The Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: An Optimistic Preliminary AccountPinelopi K. Goldberg, andTristan Reed,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Summer, 161-211, 2020
Winners and Losers When Private Banks Distribute Government Loans: Evidence from Earmarked Credit in BrazilJose Renato Haas Ornelas,Alvaro Pedraza,Claudia Ruiz-Ortega, and Thiago Silva,Policy Research Working Paper 8952, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2020
Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19: A Primer for Developing CountriesNorman V.Loayza, andSteven Michael Pennings, Research & Policy Brief 28, World Bank, Washington, DC, March 2020
Firm Resources, Strategies, and Survival and Growth during COVID-19: Evidence from Two-Wave Global SurveysSheng Fang, Chorching Goh, Shaomin Li, L. Colin Xu, Policy Research Working Paper 9997, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2022
Globally Engaged Firms in the COVID-19 CrisisCristina Constantinescu,Ana Margarida Fernandes, Arti Grover, Stavros Poupakis, and Santiago Reyes,Policy Research Working Paper 9991, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2022
How Resilient Was Trade to COVID-19?Maria Bas,Ana Margarida Fernandes, and Caroline Paunov,Policy Research Working Paper 9975, World Bank, Washington, DC, March 2022
Can Business Grants Mitigate a Crisis Evidence from Youth Entrepreneurs in Kenya during COVID-19Yanina Domenella, Julian C Jamison, Abla Safir, and Bilal Husnain Zia,Policy Research Working Paper 9874, World Bank, Washington, DC, December 2021
Competition and Firm Recovery Post-COVID-19Miriam Bruhn, AsliDemirguc-Kunt, and Dorothe Singer,Policy Research Working Paper 9851, World Bank, Washington, DC, November 2021
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Women-Led BusinessesJesica Torres, Franklin Maduko, Isis Gaddis, Leonardo Iacovone, and Kathleen Beegle, Policy Research Working Paper 9817, World Bank, Washington, DC, October 2021
Organizational Resources, Country Institutions, and National Culture behind Firm Survival and Growth during COVID-19Yu Liu, Mike W.Peng, Zuobao Wei, Jian Xu, andL. ColinXu,Policy Research Working Paper 9633, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2021
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Micro Tax Data Simulations across CountriesPierre Bachas, Anne Brockmeyer, and Camille Semelet, Policy Research Working Paper 9437, World Bank, Washington, DC, October 2020
Winners and Losers from COVID-19: Global Evidence from Google SearchKibrom A. Abay,Kibrom Tafere,and Andinet Woldemichael, Policy Research Working Paper 9268, World Bank, Washington, DC, June 2020
Financing Firms in Hibernation during the COVID-19 PandemicTatiana Didier,Federico Huneeus, Mauricio Larrain, andSergio L. Schmukler, Policy Research Working Paper 9236, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2020
Talk or Text? Evaluating Response Rates by Remote Survey Method during COVID-19Sofia Fernando Monteiro Amaral, Lelys Ileana Dinarte Diaz, Patricio Dominguez, Santiago M. Perez-Vincent, Steffanny Romero,Policy Research Working Paper 9999, World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2022
The Interplay of Policy, Institutions, and Culture in the Time of Covid-19Sheng Fang,L. Colin Xu, and Yuanyuan Yi, Policy Research Working Paper 9470, World Bank, Washington, DC, November 2020
An Opportunity to Build Legitimacy and Trust in Public Institutions in the Time of COVID-19Stuti Khemani,Research & Policy Brief 32, World Bank, Washington, DC, May 2020
Costs and Trade-Offs in the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Developing Country PerspectiveNorman V.Loayza,Research & Policy Brief 35, World Bank, Washington, DC,May 2020
Per Capita Incomes to Shrink in All Regions
WASHINGTON, June 8, 2020 The swift and massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have plunged the global economy into a severe contraction. According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year.1That would represent the deepest recession since the Second World War, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870, the World Bank says in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects.
Economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7% in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5% this year, their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years. Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6%, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year.
The blow is hitting hardest in countries where the pandemic has been the most severe and where there is heavy reliance on global trade, tourism, commodity exports, and external financing. While the magnitude of disruption will vary from region to region, all EMDEs have vulnerabilities that are magnified by external shocks. Moreover, interruptions in schooling and primary healthcare access are likely to have lasting impacts on human capital development.
This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges, said World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. Our first order of business is to address the global health and economic emergency. Beyond that, the global community must unite to find ways to rebuild as robust a recovery as possible to prevent more people from falling into poverty and unemployment.
Under the baseline forecastwhich assumes that the pandemic recedes sufficiently to allow the lifting of domestic mitigation measures by mid-year in advanced economies and a bit later in EMDEs, that adverse global spillovers ease during the second half of the year, and that dislocations in financial markets are not long-lasting global growth is forecast to rebound to 4.2% in 2021, as advanced economies grow 3.9% and EMDEs bounce back by 4.6%. However, the outlook is highly uncertain and downside risks are predominant, including the possibility of a more protracted pandemic, financial upheaval, and retreat from global trade and supply linkages. A downside scenario could lead the global economy to shrink by as much as 8% this year, followed by a sluggish recovery in 2021 of just over 1%, with output in EMDEs contracting by almost 5% this year.
The U.S. economy is forecast to contract 6.1% this year, reflecting the disruptions associated with pandemic-control measures. Euro Area output is expected to shrink 9.1% in 2020 as widespread outbreaks took a heavy toll on activity. Japans economy is anticipated to shrink 6.1% as preventive measures have slowed economic activity.
The COVID-19 recession is singular in many respects and is likely to be the deepest one in advanced economies since the Second World War and the first output contraction in emerging and developing economies in at least the past six decades, said World Bank Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose. The current episode has already seen by far the fastest and steepest downgrades in global growth forecasts on record. If the past is any guide, there may be further growth downgrades in store, implying that policymakers may need to be ready to employ additional measures to support activity.
Analytical sections in this edition of Global Economic Prospects address key aspects of this historic economic shock:
The pandemic highlights the urgent need for health and economic policy action, including global cooperation, to cushion its consequences, protect vulnerable populations, and strengthen countries capacities to prevent and deal with similar events in the future. It is critically important for emerging market and developing economies, which are particularly vulnerable, to strengthen public health systems, address challenges posed by informality and limited safety nets, and enact reforms to generate strong and sustainable growth once the crisis passes.
Emerging market and developing economies with available fiscal space and affordable financing conditions could consider additional stimulus if the effects of the pandemic persist. This should be accompanied by measures to help credibly restore medium-term fiscal sustainability, including those that strengthen fiscal frameworks, increase domestic revenue mobilization and spending efficiency, and raise fiscal and debt transparency. The transparency of all government financial commitments, debt-like instruments and investments is a key step in creating an attractive investment climate and could make substantial progress this year.
Download the June 2020 Global Economic Prospects report.
Regional Outlooks:
East Asia and Pacific: Growth in the region is projected to fall to 0.5% in 2020, the lowest rate since 1967, reflecting disruptions caused by the pandemic. For more, see regional overview.
Europe and Central Asia: The regional economy is forecast to contract by 4.7%, with recessions in nearly all countries. For more, see regional overview.
Latin America and the Caribbean: The shocks stemming from the pandemic will cause regional economic activity to plunge by 7.2% in 2020.For more, see regional overview.
Middle East and North Africa: Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa is forecast to contract by 4.2% as a result of the pandemic and oil market developments. For more, see regional overview
South Asia: Economic activity in the region is projected to contract by 2.7% in 2020 as pandemic mitigation measures hinder consumption and services activity and as uncertainty about the course of the pandemic chills private investment. For more, see regional overview.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic activity in the region is on course to contract by 2.8% in 2020, the deepest on record. For more, see regional overview.
World Bank Group COVID-19 Response
TheWorld Bank Group, one of the largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries, is takingbroad, fast actionto help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response. We are supporting public health interventions, working to ensure the flow of critical supplies and equipment, and helping the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. We will be deploying up to $160 billion in financial support over 15 months to help more than 100 countries protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery. This includes $50 billion of new IDA resources through grants and highly concessional loans.
Visit us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/worldbankBe updated via Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/worldbankFor our YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/worldbank
1 Using market exchange rate weightings.
Almost a year into the pandemic, nearly every business in the world has been affected by COVID-19, but performance has varied widely, even within countries and industries. Data collected through the World Bank firm surveys offer some glimpses into why, and how this may be relevant for policy.
Poverty projections suggest that the social and economic impacts of the crisis are likely to be quite significant. Estimates based on growth projections from the June 2020 Global Economic Prospects report show that, when compared with pre-crisis forecasts, COVID-19 could push 71 million people into extreme poverty in 2020 under the baseline scenario and 100 million under the downside scenario. As a result, the global extreme poverty rate would increase from 8.23% in 2019 to 8.82% under the baseline scenario or 9.18% under the downside scenario, representing the first increase in global extreme poverty since 1998, effectively wiping out progress made since 2017. While a small decline in poverty is expected in 2021 under the baseline scenario, projected impacts are likely to be long-lasting.
The number of people living under the international poverty lines for lower and upper middle-income countries $3.20/day and $5.50/day in 2011 PPP, respectively is also projected to increase significantly, signaling that social and economic impacts will be widely felt. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, COVID-19 could generate 176 million additional poor at $3.20 and 177 million additional poor at $5.50. This is equivalent to an increase in the poverty rate of 2.3 percentage points compared to a no-COVID-19 scenario.
A large share of the new extreme poor will be concentrated in countries that are already struggling with high poverty rates and numbers of poor. Almost half of the projected new poor will be in South Asia, and more than a third in Sub-Saharan Africa. Under the baseline scenario, the number of extreme poor in IDA, Blend and FCV countries is projected to increase by 21, 10 and 18 million, respectively.
The increase in the extreme poverty rate and number of extreme poor are projected to be significantly higher under both the baseline and downside scenario if inequality were to increase as a consequence of the crisis. For instance, a 1% increase in the Gini coefficient (on the upper side of the experience of previous pandemics2) would translate into an additional 19 million in extreme poverty, bringing the global total to 90 million in the baseline scenario. In the downside scenario, there would be an additional 16 million extreme poor, bringing the global total to 116 million. Further increases in inequality would only worsen this picture.
The same is true were GDP growth to be lower than projected under the downside scenario. Specifically, a 2 percentage point decline in GDP growth, vis-a-vis the downside scenario, would raise the number of additional extreme poor to 124 million.
