The coronavirus is not on its way out, experts say, no matter how much we want it to be.
Not even with updated boosters newly available to better protect against the variants now circulating, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention dropping its quarantine and distancing recommendations and people throwing off their masks and acting as if were back to pre-pandemic times.
The scourge already has lasted longer than the 1918 influenza pandemic, but its going to be with us far into the future, scientists predict.
One reason is that its gotten better and better at getting around immunity from vaccination and past infection. And research suggests that the latest omicron variant gaining ground in the United States BA.4.6, which was responsible for around 8% of new U.S. infections a week ago appears to be even better at evading the immune system than the dominant BA.5.
And experts worry the virus might keep evolving in worrisome ways.
Better get used to living with it because itll likely be around for the rest of our lives, says Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House COVID-19 coordinator.
Experts expect COVID ultimately will become endemic, meaning it occurs regularly in certain areas according to established patterns. But they dont think that will happen very soon.
Still, living with COVID should not necessarily be a scary or bad concept, since people are getting better at fighting it, Jha said during a recent question-and-answer session. Obviously, if we take our foot off the gas if we stop updating our vaccines, we stop getting new treatments then, we could slip backwards.
The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub made some pandemic projections spanning August 2022 to May 2023 that assumed the newly tweaked boosters, adding protection for the newest omicron relatives, would be available and that a booster campaign would take place this fall and winter. In the most pessimistic scenario a new variant and late boosters they projected 1.3 million hospitalizations and 181,000 deaths in that period. In the most optimistic scenario no new variant and early boosters they projected a little more than half the number of hospitalizations and 111,000 deaths.
Dr. Eric Topol, head of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, says the world is likely to keep seeing repetitive surges until we do the things we have to do, like developing next-generation vaccines and rolling them out equitably.
Topol says the virus just has too many ways to work around our current strategies, and itll just keep finding people, finding them again, and self-perpetuating.
Scientists expect more genetic changes that affect parts of the spike protein that studs the surface of the virus, letting it attach to human cells.
Every time we think weve seen the peak transmission, peak immune escape properties, the virus exceeds that by another significant notch, Topol says.
But the virus probably wont keep getting more transmissible forever.
I think there is a limit, says Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. What were really dealing with, though, is theres still a lot of people across the world who dont have any prior immunity either they havent been infected, or they havent had access to vaccination.
If humanitys baseline level of immunity rises significantly, Binnicker says, the rate of infections and, with that, the emergence of more contagious variants should slow.
But there is a chance the virus could mutate in a way that causes more severe illness.
Theres not any inherent reason, biologically, that the virus has to become milder over time, says Dr. Wesley Long, a pathologist at Houston Methodist.
Omicron has been around since late last year, with super-transmissible versions quickly displacing one another. Binnicker thinks that will continue at least for the next few months.
Down the road, he says its likely that a new variant, distinct from omicron, will pop up.
He says the recent wave of infections gives the virus more chances to spread and mutate and new variants to emerge.
Yes, experts say. One way: Get vaccinated, and get a booster.
According to Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, as many as 100,000 COVID hospitalizations and 9,000 deaths could be prevented if Americans get the updated booster this fall at the rate they typically get an annual flu shot. About half of Americans typically get vaccinated against influenza.
People also can take other precautions, like wearing masks indoors when COVID rates are high.
AUSTIN, Texas Austin Public Health (APH) recommends families prioritize getting up to date with their vaccines this fall, includingseasonal flu shotsand COVID-19 vaccines.
Health professionals look to the southern hemisphere to predict the severity of flu season.In Australia this year, children younger than 5 years to teens had the highest number of reported cases.
"Now is not the time to let our guard down. Everyone, especially children and seniors, need flu protection,"said Austin-Travis County Health Authority Dr. Desmar Walkes. "This time last year we were fighting the COVID-19 delta variant, and we protected our most vulnerable from COVID-19 and flu with a combination of masking and vaccine. Lets do it again."
Babies and young children have been eligible for COVID-19 vaccines sincelate June. More data:
Fewer than 2,500 children 6 months to 4 years arefully vaccinated in Travis County.
Half of children admitted to hospitals for treatment were unvaccinated and do NOT have any underlying medical condition.
Case numbers at our areaschoolsare rising and may significantly increase if illness spreads from sick students to their families.
The first year of the pandemic saw historically low levels of influenza circulation. Infections increased during the2021-22 season, although flu-related deaths and hospitalizations remained low. Preventive measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing and robust hygiene practices protected our communities against more than COVID-19.
Seasonalflu vaccines are recommended for everyone 6 months and older. Ideally flu shots should be administered duringSeptember and October, although they can still help prevent serious illness from influenza when administered beyond this time period. Flu most commonly peaks in February and significant activity can continue into May.
Flu shots can be administered at the same time as COVID-19 vaccines. TheCDC just authorized new COVID-19 booster dosesand APH has ordered supply. Expect more details on those doses soon.
The seasonal flu vaccine protects against influenza viruses that research suggests may be more common during the upcoming season. Last season Influenza A was the most common circulating strain inTravis County. Some people who get flu shots may still get sick, but studies show the overall severity of illness is likely reduced by vaccinations.
"As a community, we realize now more than ever, how health impacts our quality of life our ability to work, play, and spend time with loved ones. Getting your flu shots is an easy way to keep your family safe and on track,"said Austin Public Health Director Adrienne Sturrup. "We dont have to getsidelined by another virus, especially one weve been routinely vaccinating against for decades."
The composition of flu vaccines varieseach seasonbecause there are many different flu viruses. Therecommendations for the 2022-2023 seasoninclude two updates compared with last seasons recommended vaccines: the influenza A(H3N2) and the influenza B(Victoria lineage) vaccine virus components.
Vaccine Providers
VisitVaccines.gov(Vacunas.govin Spanish) to find flu and COVID-19 vaccine providers near you.
Free COVID-19 tests
Thefederal governmentsuspendedits free mail-order test kit program to maintain the national stockpileSept. 2, 2022. Free at-home test kits and PCR testing are still available at APHs Metz Elementary testing site (84 Robert T. Martinez Jr. St., Austin, TX 78702).
Free masks(N-95 respirators)
Use theCDCs mask-locator toolto find pharmacies near you that provide free masks (N95 respirators). It does not show current inventories, so check with the location for availability.
Note: PIO staff will be available to respond to media inquiries following the Labor Day holiday weekend.
Health care workers and care home residents are to start receiving Covid boosters and autumn flu jabs from Monday as the autumn vaccination programme gets under way.
Thousands of people across Scotland have already been issued appointments, with the first inline receiving the inoculation today.
It comes ahead of an expected "winter wave of respiratory virus" with the flu possibly making a resurgence after a drop during the lockdown, the country's national clinical director warned.
Speaking to BBC Scotland Radio,Jason Leitch described Scotland's current Covid infection rates as"almost entirely good news" after cases were shown to have been at their lowest in eight months.
Around one in 55 people in private householdsnorth of the border were estimated to have the virus in the week to August 23, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.
However, Mr Leitch emphasised that a winter resurgence is expected and said: "Today's a really important day.
"This is the autumn booster for Covid and combined in many cases with flu so it is really important that people go for their appointment or make their appointment depending who they are."
The rollout will first see health and social care staffreceive the jab, alongside the "house-bound" which includes care home residents.
Mr Leitch said a portal has been open for some time to allow the essential workers to book an appointment for the jabs.
"The first day 35,000 of them signed up, that should tell you a little bit about how good this vaccine is if the health and social care workers want to queue up to get it," he added.
This rollout also marks the first time a bivalent vaccine, targeting two variants at once, will be issued to some Scots.
The 'Spikevax bivalent Original/Omicron has previously been described as asharpened tool in our armoury to fight against Covid.
"This is a kind of standard development," the national clinical director said."As vaccines come on stream, as the disease changes, the vaccine companies work on abetter in inverted commas vaccine.
"So this one has little bits in it that make it kind of amenable to Omicron original and Omicron new basically.
"We know the old vaccines, let's call them, still are absolutely fantastic. They are still doing really well, most of the world is using them, they are still reducing serious disease and death by huge percentages.
"So whichever vaccine you're offered, anywhere in the world, is the one you should get."
Speaking on new variants, he added:"The most important thing is what happens next and we are beginning to see new variants pop up with new numbers, but nothing so far.
"The trick is if they give it a new greek letter, that's more worrying. So if they just give it a new number attached to the old greek letter, don't panic.
"If they give it a new greek letter you'll have to have me in to talk about it probably and we don't want to have to learn the greek alphabet using Covid as our excuse of course."
Following the first group, the vaccine programme will then invite over 65s after which the over 50s will be able to book their appointment.
It is hoped that all groups will receive their vaccine by the end of the year with the rollout taking place in smaller centres.
Asked if there is a plan for a larger rollout for younger age groupsif there is a "massive covid outbreak in the winter", Mr Leitch said: "There is always. So the joint committee looks at the disease, the status of the people with immunity, where the immunity is going up or down all of that.
"So everything needs to be kept in reserve, we don't know what will happen with variants, we don't know. The doomsday scenario, of course, and this isn't to scare anybodywe don't expect it to happen but what if we get one from somewhere else in the world that escapes our vaccine and that sets us back.
"It probably won't set us back to the beginning but it might set us back a little so you've got to have everything in reserve."
Modellers have been using flu-tracking data to tease out incidence of Covid-19 in New Zealand. Photo / NZME
Piggy-backing a major flu survey has been giving modellers a handy insight into our Covid-19 rates and all without relying on test results.
In a new study, Kiwi researchers have outlined how they used weekly data from the Flutracking survey to get a fresh perspective on Covid-19 in New Zealand, where another 1103 new cases and 11 virus-linked deaths have been reported today.
For Dr Emily Harvey and her University of Auckland colleagues, the internationally-run survey, in which tens of thousands of Kiwis now self-report any influenza-like symptoms, offered a rich vein of data to mine.
Over the nearly two years where our elimination measures wiped out flu here, it provided a useful way to measure possible coronavirus cases against the number of PCR tests being carried out.
This told them not just how high testing rates truly were, but also how quickly a new community outbreak might be picked up.
"Although we looked into other sources of data, including from GPs and Healthline, we found that these other data sources all had major limitations," Harvey said.
The biggest one: that people typically only reached for those services when their cold or flu symptoms became severe enough.
"This is an issue for monitoring Covid-19 testing, because we know that only around 20 to 25 per cent of Covid-19 cases will have the 'influenza-like illness' symptoms of cough and fever, and this varies with different variants."
After FluTracking was widened to ask about a range of Covid-like symptoms, including "runny nose" and "sore throat", the team saw a new way to capture infected people who weren't necessarily seeking healthcare.
Their first step was to define two new groupings from the data those reporting any one or more, or two or more, Covid-like symptoms alongside those people with cough and fever.
That allowed them to capture a greater proportion of Covid-19 cases, as well as more non-Covid respiratory illnesses that were also circulating but couldn't be picked apart without a Covid test.
Next, they made careful adjustments to correct for two known biases that participants were more likely to report symptoms, and that certain age groups were under or over-represented which could distort incidence estimates.
"Once we'd done this, we also used some statistical packages to calculate confidence bands for our weekly estimates," Harvey said.
"This was important to capture how much of the week-to-week variability we were seeing could be coming just from low survey responses, particularly in small regions or under-represented age groups, and how much we could have confidence that the increase or decrease seen was real."
The result was a smart tool the team has been using since late-2020 to inform modelling and our wider Covid-19 response - and outlined in a study just published in open-access science journal MethodX.
"Although Flutracker cannot distinguish what is causing the symptoms, the expansion of the symptoms asked about has meant that we've been able to track the rates of respiratory illness in different age groups and in different regions," she said.
"We have seen clear signals of reductions in respiratory illnesses in school-aged groups during school holidays, with resulting drops in adults in the week or two following.
"Similarly, when schools go back, we consistently see an increase in rates of illness in school-aged children, with a rise seen in adults in the week or two after."
Over 2020 and 2021, Harvey found it handy in counter-acting headlines claiming that testing rates were plummeting, when it could clearly be seen the alert level restrictions were also lowering the spread of all respiratory illnesses.
"The number of people actually getting sick was dropping as fast, if not faster, than the testing numbers so, our estimates of the testing rates were still very high."
This year, they've turned to it for estimating how many rapid antigen tests should be distributed, to ensure that everyone with new symptoms consistent with Covid-19 was getting tested.
"It's also been used in conjunction with other surveillance data, including wastewater testing, to help give confidence that observed case number drops are real, and not just a drop off in reporting."
That was important, Harvey added, pointing out that the FluTracker data could be picking up other illnesses with similar symptoms to Covid-19 and indeed, it this year captured what was one of New Zealand's biggest flu waves in years.
"To get insights into what is causing those symptoms, this data needs to be combined with surveillance testing that ESR and others do on swabs from hospital and other settings, and the incredibly valuable work done as part of the WellKiwis study, where participants with any respiratory illness get swabbed to determine which virus is causing the illness."
As experts have often pointed out, the numbers officially reported each day weren't reflecting the true picture of Covid-19 in New Zealand something not just down to people not testing, but asymptomatic cases and RATs not picking up infections.
"Estimating the true proportion of people who have had Covid is crucially important for knowing the height of the 'immunity wall' and thus the size and timing of future waves, but also for knowing where the burden of disease if falling - who is being hit hardest by the infection," Harvey said.
The critical missing piece of evidence remained a national Covid-19 Infection Prevalence Survey something the Ministry of Health had initially planned to launch in July.
"This would give a robust estimate of the proportion of people each week who have Covid-19, as well as valuable information on things like what symptoms people had, and their experiences of the illness," Harvey said.
"With Covid-19 here to stay, the sooner this gets up and running, the better."
A new virus called tomato flu has been reported in Kerala, India. According to an article in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, the first case of this mysterious illness was reported on May 6. There have now been over 80 cases, with the disease spreading to other parts of India.
Most of those infected are children under the age of five, with symptoms including a high temperature, intense joint pain and a rash. The children also suffered an eruption of red, painful blisters that grew to the size of a tomato hence the name.
Although the children can be unwell, there have been no reports of serious illness or death so far. Everyone seems to be recovering.
Doctors treating the children were unsure what was causing this illness. The temperature, aches and pains could be due to any number of infections. They speculated that it might be the result of some exotic-sounding viruses that are transmitted by mosquitoes, such as dengue and chikungunya or even chickenpox.
They thought that perhaps the unusual tomato-shaped rash might be occurring because children were reacting differently to infections after they had COVID. Also, because of the large size of the spots, there was even a suggestion that it might be monkeypox.
Scientists have been testing samples from children with tomato flu to try to identify the cause of the disease. Two children in the UK who developed suspected tomato flu symptoms after returning from a family holiday in Kerala were swabbed. The lab results revealed that they were infected with an enterovirus named coxsackie A16.
Coxsackie A16 causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), so-called because the patient has blisters on the palms of their hands, soles of their feet and in their mouth.
So it seems that tomato flu is actually HFMD. It is not a type of influenza, has nothing to do with tomatoes and is not a new disease at all.
It is not in any way related to foot and mouth disease of cattle. It is usually mild and clears up by itself within a week or so, although pain relief can be helpful.
Sometimes people get sores in their mouth, which makes it hard to swallow, so dehydration can be a problem in small children. In very rare cases, the person can develop viral meningitis. But it is important to note that, so far, no cases of serious illness following tomato flu have been reported from India.
Like many common childhood infections, it is very contagious and can be spread through faeces and the fluid in the spots, so parents are advised that children with HFMD should be kept away from school or nursery for five days after the symptoms start.
Viruses have been doing strange things since the COVID pandemic started. For example seasonal winter viruses spread in summer 2020, and no one is entirely sure what caused the outbreak of hepatitis in children in 2021. And until 2022, monkeypox outbreaks outside of Africa only involved small numbers of people.
Now we have these unusually large tomato-type rashes that arent typical of HFMD. It will be interesting to find out why the spots looked different enough for the disease to be given a new name. The tomato flu rash might be due to a range of different causes, and this highlights the value of accurate laboratory testing for viruses. However, it is worth noting that fewer than 100 cases of tomato flu have been reported since early May. So the outbreak is probably under control.
Sarah Pitt, Principal Lecturer, Microbiology and Biomedical Science Practice, Fellow of the Institute of Biomedical Science, University of Brighton
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Sarah Pitt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
University of Brightonprovides funding as a member of The Conversation UK.
WARE The towns public health department on Wednesday confirmed the first monkey pox case in this community of 10,066.
According to state Department of Public Health and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, there are currently 303 monkey pox cases in Massachusetts as of Aug. 31.
The CDC says there are 18,989 total confirmed monkeypox/orthopoxvirus cases in the country at this time.
Evaluating novel COVID-19 vaccines in the current chapter of the pandemic The Lancet
ADDIS ABABA ETHIOPIA, 05 September 2022 The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) in collaboration with UNICEF, WHO and other key stakeholders, through the Saving Lives and Livelihoods programme in partnership with the Mastercard Foundation, is hosting a continental workshop for managers in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI),to track progress towards achieving the 70 per cent vaccination target by the end of 2022, while reaching most vulnerable groups and strengthening countries health systems and routine immunization.
This workshop will provide an opportunity for learning best practices and sharing experiences among Member States with the support of experts from Africa CDC, UNICEF, WHO and other partners. The event will also identify opportunities for continental change of policy and strategies to accelerate the scale-up of COVID-19 vaccination with a focus on achieving 100 per cent coverage among high-risk groups, and to recover, if not surpass, pre-pandemic routine immunization coverage.
Despite recent progress in global COVID-19 vaccine coverage, Africa continues to report the lowest COVID-19 vaccination uptake, with 22.1 per cent of people fully vaccinated compared to other regions globally. Most countries have coverage below 20 per cent compared to a global average of 60 per cent. Additionally, in most African countries where data is available, the COVID-19 vaccination coverage among the high-priority population, including Health workers, elderly people, adults, and children with co-morbidities, remains low.
African Union (AU) Member States are facing various challenges to rolling out COVID-19 vaccination, including, among others, the limited health workforce to implement accelerated vaccination strategies within an already strained health system and the low uptake of vaccination particularly among the most vulnerable groups due to a low risk-perception about the disease in most communities as hospitalizations and deaths plummeted.
According to UNICEF and WHO, the pandemic has grossly set back childhood immunization on the continent. Nearly 12 million children in Africa have missed out on vaccination in 2021 and were made vulnerable to vaccine-preventable diseases. Essential immunization service coverage dropped in all AU regions between 2019 and 2021. This resulted from the pandemics associated disruptions, in addition to strained health systems due to COVID-19 vaccination efforts. This is the largest backslide in childhood vaccinations in decades.
The continental workshop will gather delegates (i.e., National Managers of COVID-19 Vaccination programmes and National EPI Managers) representing all 55 Member States of the AU and partners alike to take stock of the progress on COVID-19 vaccination, share experiences to overcome critical bottlenecks towards 70 per cent coverage by the end of 2022, while strengthening countries health systems and routine immunization. The event is scheduled to take place from 6-8 September 2022 at theAU Commission in Addis Ababa.
About the Africa CDC
Africa CDC is a continental public health agency of the African Union whose role is to strengthen the capacity and capability of Africas public health institutions and partnerships to detect and respond quickly and effectively to disease threats and outbreaks based on data-driven interventions and programs. For more information, please visit: http://www.africacdc.org;
Follow Africa CDC on social media: (Tweeter, Facebook, LinkedIn etc.)
About the Saving Lives and Livelihoods Initiative
The Saving Lives and Livelihoods initiative is athree-year, US $1.5 billion partnership between the Mastercard Foundation and Africa CDC, designed to save the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in Africa and hasten the economic recovery of the continent in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. TheSaving Lives and Livelihoodsinitiative is committed to acquiring vaccines for more than 65 million people, supporting the delivery of vaccinations to millions more across the continent, and laying the groundwork for vaccine manufacturing in Africa by focusing on human capital development, and strengthening the capacity of Africa CDC.
About the Mastercard Foundation
The Mastercard Foundation is a Canadian foundation and one of the largest in the world, with approximately $40 billion in assets. The Foundation was created in 2006 through the generosity of Mastercard when it became a public company. Since its inception, the Foundation has operated independently of the company. Its Board determines the Foundations policies, operations, and program decisions. For more information on the Foundation, please visit: https://mastercardfdn.org/faq-saving-lives-and-livelihoods/
About UNICEF
UNICEF works in some of the worlds toughest places, to reach the worlds most disadvantaged children. Across more than 190 countries and territories, we work for every child, everywhere, to build a better world for everyone.Follow UNICEF onTwitterandFacebook
Media Contact
Africa CDC
G. Nekerwon Gweh, Communication Officer, Division of Policy, Health Diplomacy and Communication; Africa CDC | Tel: +251 945 502 310 | Email: GwehN@africa-union.org
Mastercard Foundation Nonye Mpho Omotola
Lead, Health Communications, Human Capital Development nomotola@mastercardfdn.org
UNICEF Office to the African Union and ECA
Mr. Derrick Ochuot
Communication and Advocacy Officer,dochuot@unicef.org
We are aware of false claims on social media that our advice on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine while pregnant or breastfeeding has changed.
We would like to reassure the public that our advice has not changed. Our advice remains that the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective during pregnancy and breastfeeding and there is substantial evidence to support this advice.
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