There's a new COVID variant being tracked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but how concerning is it?
Health experts broke down the latest developments on the pandemic and which COVID symptoms they aren't seeing much of anymore.
Here's what you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic across Illinois today:
A new COVID variant is slowly beginning to grow in numbers in the U.S. and in the Midwest, but how concerning is it and will it overtake the BA.5 variant currently dominating cases?
According health experts, much is still unclear about BA.4.6, a descendent of the BA.4 variant that first emerged in April and May. The new strain is now responsible for just over 5% of cases across the country, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates, marking a slight increase from numbers reported one week earlier.
Read more here.
As omicron subvariants continue to make up roughly all COVID cases in the U.S., and as new variants continue to emerge, are symptoms shifting?
According tothe latest update from the CDC, the BA.5 lineage of the omicron variant is now the most prevalent strain of the virus in the U.S., accounting for more than 88% of recent cases.
Read more here.
Do you still need to quarantine if you were exposed to COVID?
The guidelines have changed, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC changed its recommendations last week, releasing new guidance for people who were potentially exposed.
Read more here.
White House COVID coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha said on Wednesday that the newly updated COVID-19 boosters will be available to teens and adults "in a few short weeks."
"I believe its going to be available and every American over the age of 12 will be eligible for it," Jha told NBC News' Lester Holt.
Read more here.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky is reorganizing the agency, saying it didn't react quickly enough during the Covid pandemic, according an internal review of the agency's operations released on Wednesday.
Walensky laid out several organizational changes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will take over the coming months to correct missteps and failures that occurred during the last 2.5 years of the pandemic, according to a fact sheet.
Read more here.
An omicron subvariant that has been the dominant strain of COVID-19 in the United States since early July is showing no signs of letting up, causing nearly 90% of the current cases in the country.
According to the weekly Nowcast update provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday, the BA.5 COVID subvariant is now responsible for 88.8% of cases in the United States, a slight uptick from last week as it continues its spread.
Read more here.
First Lady Jill Biden is experiencing "mild symptoms" after testing positive for COVID, the White House announced Tuesday.
Biden, who has been twice-vaccinated and twice-boosted, has been prescribed Paxlovid, the same antiviral drug that President Joe Biden recently took when he contracted the virus.
Read more here.
New guidelines surrounding COVID protocols have been put into place, with the changes being driven by a recognition that an estimated 95% of Americans 16 and older have acquired some level of immunity, according to federal health officials.
The revised recommendations, announced Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, ease social distancing requirements and no longer encourage Americans to quarantine if they come into close contact with an infected person.
Read more here.
People who come down with COVID-19 can experience a wide range of symptoms, with fever, tiredness and cough said to be some of the most common. However, digestive symptoms like nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, as well as others, are reported less frequently, according to the Mayo Clinic.
A study titled "The Roles of Nausea and Vomiting in COVID-19," published in 2021, found both nausea and vomiting aren't uncommon symptoms for children and adults with COVID. Often times, they can appear before other types of symptoms.
Read more here.
Multiple subvariants of the omicron strain are continuing to circulate across the country, with some studies indicating that they could potentially do a better job of evading existing vaccines and immunity.
According tothe latest update from the CDC, the BA.5 lineage of the omicron variant is now the most prevalent strain of the virus in the U.S., accounting for more than 88% of recent cases.
BA.4, another omicron subvariant, is behind 5% of infections.
Read more here.
While some Illinois students and teachers are still waiting until later this month to head to the classroom, others have already begun to head back-to-school, including those in District U-46 -- the state's second largest school district.
But as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues to roll out its new, more flexible COVID guidelines and protocols, this school year is shaping up to look a little different than the last two.
Read more here.
Anyone who contracts COVID-19 is advised to isolate for at least five days, but could you be contagious even after that?
It's a possibility, according to Chicago's top doctor.
Read more here.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a new set of COVID guidelines Thursday, clarifying whether recovering individuals need to test out of isolation.
In its updated guidelines, the CDC recommended different approaches for patients based on their symptoms.
Read more here.
Under revised guidance from the Food and Drug Administration, individuals who have been exposed to COVID-19 may need to take as many as three at-home tests to ensure that they are not experiencing asymptomatic infections.
The new guidance was issued last week after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed its own recommendations for those exposed to COVID, saying that quarantine is no longer recommended for those exposed to the virus and who are not showing symptoms.
Read more here.
Oregon saw continued declines in identified COVID-19 cases over the past week, with the daily average falling below 900 new cases.
While reported cases can be unreliable indicators of how widespread the virus is, other measures also indicate the current surges peak has passed.
Wastewater monitoring in about 40 Oregon communities shows infections may have peaked mid-July with general declines since then. The percentage of COVID-19 tests that come back positive has also fallen, with about one in 10 tests showing a coronavirus infection, compared to as many as 15 in 100 on certain days a month ago. Hospitalizations for COVID-19 fell from a peak of 464 occupied beds July 17 to 328 reported Wednesday.
But the fall is expected to bring a renewed uptick, an Oregon Health & Science University forecast shows. Per the Aug. 5 projections, Oregon could reach current hospitalization levels by around the end of the year.
And concerns about the virus are likely to grow as the school year starts at the end of the month, with no statewide masking mandates for schools. Districts have the freedom and power to enact whatever preventative measures they see fit, the state has said, with no interventions planned unless a particularly virulent and infectious strain of the virus appears again.
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Since it began: Oregon has reported 868,905 confirmed or presumed infections and 8,326 deaths.
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Hospitalizations: 328 people with confirmed coronavirus infections are hospitalized, down 43 since Wednesday, Aug. 10. That includes 38 people in intensive care, down 10 since Aug. 10.
Vaccinations: As of Aug. 15, the state has reported fully vaccinating 2,950,545 people (69.1% of the population), partially vaccinating 299,579 people (7%) and boosting 1,729,726(40.5%).
New deaths: Since Aug. 10, the Oregon Health Authority has reported 74 additional deaths connected to COVID-19.
Fedor Zarkhin
Where to buy a COVID-19 test online: How to find BinaxNow, iHealth, more at-home kits for sale with fast shipping
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Bella Smith fondly remembers the time she hit her first home run. Then 9, she stepped up to home plate on a softball field in East Alabama, read the pitcher like a book and swung with all her might. The ball soared over the outfielders. She charged through the bases and safely reached home well before the catcher could tag her out.
Bellas father, coach and hero, Jody Smith, was cheering her on from the sidelines. The two bonded over softball and spent their free time practicing in their backyard. For countless hours, Bella pitched curveballs and he hit popups for her to catch.
But really what I loved most about the game was my daddy being there and now hes not, said Bella, now 14.
Her father died from COVID-19 complications Sept. 3. Smith, 48, worked for eight years at the Carroll County Sheriffs Office in Carrollton, where he was responsible for driving detainees to other jails and prisons. His widow believes he contracted the disease in the Carroll County Jail.
Born in Ranburne, Alabama, Smith was a tenacious athlete who was passionate about softball.
From the minute Jody was old enough to hold a ball, he never put it down, said his mother, Brenda Smith.
Smiths friends said he closely resembled Dirty Dancing star Patrick Swayze when he was younger. Cheryl Smith, who grew up in the same hometown, was enamored by his looks and found his deep belly laughs contagious. They married in 2005. Jody loved Cheryls son, Tristen, and raised him as his own. Three years after they married, Jody and Cheryl brought Bella into the world.
Smith stayed upbeat after he tested positive for COVID-19, said his widow, adding their family expected him to fully recover. But his blood-oxygen level began to fall. His family took him to the hospital and he was eventually moved into intensive care. When Cheryl Smith visited her husband, she lifted up his oxygen mask and the two shared a kiss.
And even at that point, I never once doubted he was coming home, she said.
The Carroll Sheriffs Office and Smiths family held a prayer vigil outside of his hospital room. A nurse told Cheryl that he was improving. But the next morning a doctor called to tell her that he was not going to make it through the day.
Bella stopped playing softball after she lost her father. She said she never played without him and doesnt plan to now.
Capt. Michael DAngelo Garigan, 56, of Calhoun, died with COVID-19 on Jan. 24 of last year. To honor her husband, Leslie Garigan is starting a nonprofit, Be Like Mike. The college scholarship, she said, will be given to people who are dedicating their lives to making the world a better place.
Credit: Provided
Capt. Michael DAngelo Garigan, 56, of Calhoun, died with COVID-19 on Jan. 24 of last year. To honor her husband, Leslie Garigan is starting a nonprofit, Be Like Mike. The college scholarship, she said, will be given to people who are dedicating their lives to making the world a better place.
Credit: Provided
Credit: Provided
Age 56, of Calhoun. Read the obituary.
By Caleb Groves
Fresh Take Georgia
Hundreds of friends and loved ones gathered at Phil Reeve Stadium in Calhoun for a memorial service last year for Michael Garigan, a law enforcement officer who served Gordon County for 31 years. A church pastor related to Garigan led the audience in the chant, Be Like Mike, a nod to Garigans admiration of NBA legend Michael Jordan.
We are here because we love Mike, said Pastor James C. Marable, who leads Bethel Baptist Church in Barnesville.
Garigan, 56, died with COVID-19 on Jan. 24, 2021. He was married with three children and four grandchildren.
A Calhoun native, he graduated with a bachelors degree in criminal justice from Jacksonville State University. He served as a deacon at First Corinth Christian Church in Calhoun, coached youth football and worked as the commander of the Gordon County Jail. The kids he taught in the D.A.R.E. program remembered him as kind and respectful, said his widow, Leslie Garigan. He was passionate about sports and education, she added, and refused to let others celebrate him, despite his accomplishments.
The pandemic changed him. He and his wife spent thousands of dollars on cleaning supplies and scrubbed their walls until paint came off. He never left the house without a mask and spent as little time as possible in the jail, where social distancing is difficult.
He was petrified of COVID, his widow said.
When he became ill last year, his family was certain it wasnt COVID-19. But it eventually became clear to them that his illness was more than a cold as he struggled to breathe. Leslie Garigan called 911 four times. Every time, she said, 911 operators told her the hospitals were full. She nursed her husband until he was admitted to an intensive care unit, where he spent 19 days. When he was told he had COVID, he denied it, she said, and shook his head, repeatedly saying No. Garigan died later that day.
Leslie Garigan said she believes her husband contracted COVID-19 in the Gordon County Jail.
COVID was the one battle we would come up against that we were not able to overcome, she said.
To honor her husband, she is starting a nonprofit, Be Like Mike. A college scholarship, she said, will be given to others who are like he was dedicated to making the world a better place.
Sgt. Bobby Williams, 56, of Columbus, died from complications with COVID-19 on Sept. 13. His family believes he contracted the disease in the Muscogee County Jail, where he worked. He was joyful, he was kind, said Yairick McFadden, Williams oldest son. He was just that person someone would look up to.
Credit: Provided
Sgt. Bobby Williams, 56, of Columbus, died from complications with COVID-19 on Sept. 13. His family believes he contracted the disease in the Muscogee County Jail, where he worked. He was joyful, he was kind, said Yairick McFadden, Williams oldest son. He was just that person someone would look up to.
Credit: Provided
Credit: Provided
Age 56, of Columbus. Read the obituary.
By Melissa Walsh
Fresh Take Georgia
Bobby Williams sons vividly remember tagging along with their father while he worked the night shift as a security guard in LaGrange during the 1980s. They would hop in the family car along with their sister, eagerly awaiting the opportunity to walk the warehouse grounds and learn from their dad how to keep watch.
He instilled discipline and determination in his children. Williams built them an outdoor gym with a basketball hoop. His children remember him cheering them on from the sidelines at their sporting events.
He was joyful, he was kind, said Yairick McFadden, Williams oldest son. He was just that person someone would look up to.
Williams, 56, died from complications with COVID-19 on Sept. 13, 2021. His family believes he contracted the disease in the Muscogee County Jail, where he worked as a sergeant.
Williams was born in Brooklyn, New York, and raised in Warsaw, North Carolina, by his grandparents. Shortly after graduating from high school, he moved to Columbus, where he joined the Muscogee County Sheriffs Office in 1993. Williams loved to collect guns and rare coins and go fishing with his youngest son, Jordon Williams.
When Bobby Williams began experiencing symptoms, he didnt want anyone to worry about him. He struggled to catch his breath but sought to reassure his family it was just a cold. A few days later, Williams, who lived alone, didnt show up for work, prompting his colleagues to contact his family. Williams was too frail to get up and answer the door.
Williams was placed on a ventilator at the hospital. His relatives werent allowed to visit because of the pandemic, so fellow sheriffs deputies who were stationed there connected them by phone. That allowed his family to communicate with him every day until he died.
Muscogee deputies now routinely check on his family members, buy them dinner and share memories about Williams. Meanwhile, his oldest children are now teaching their own children what he taught them as they reminisce about the days when they were able to ride with their dad to work.
Cpl. Gregory Bernard Campbell, 54, of Augusta, died from complications from COVID-19 on Sept. 18, just five months after he was promoted corporal at the Richmond County Sheriffs Office. There was a brightness and countenance about him that always left an impression on people, said his widow, Pamela Campbell.
Credit: Richmond County Sheriff's Office
Credit: Richmond County Sheriff's Office
Cpl. Gregory Bernard Campbell, 54, of Augusta, died from complications from COVID-19 on Sept. 18, just five months after he was promoted corporal at the Richmond County Sheriffs Office. There was a brightness and countenance about him that always left an impression on people, said his widow, Pamela Campbell.
Credit: Richmond County Sheriff's Office
Credit: Richmond County Sheriff's Office
Age 54, of Augusta. Read the obituary.
By Lilly Carter
Fresh Take Georgia
Gregory Bernard Campbell enjoyed spending his early mornings at the gym when it was quiet so he could read his Bible while he worked out. He worshipped at Restoration Ministries International in Augusta, where he became a minister, ushered and worked with children. He met his wife, Pamela Campbell, there at a Wednesday night Bible study more than 26 years ago.
His faith, hearty laugh, and winners smile are among his qualities she remembers most.
There was a brightness and countenance about him that always left an impression on people, she said. He was one of the nicest people you would ever meet.
Campbell, 54, died from complications from COVID-19 on Sept. 18, 2021, five months after he was promoted to corporal at the Richmond County Sheriffs Office. He started as a deputy jailor and worked there for more than 14 years.
Campbell was working closely with detainees in the Charles B. Webster Detention Center when he contracted COVID-19 in August. He battled the disease in the hospital for several weeks before he was placed on a ventilator. Campbells health was complicated by sleep apnea, a common condition that can prevent people from getting enough oxygen.
He had three sons, all of whom shared his Christian faith. His eldest son, Reign, runs a car detailing business they started together before the pandemic, Reign and Gregs Pressure Wash. In memory of his father, Reign wrapped his work van with a photo of him and one of their favorite Bible verses, John 3:16: For God so loved the world that he gave his only begotten Son that whosoever believeth in Him would not perish but have everlasting life.
The last time I tried to wait out the pandemic, I drove south. My dog and I traveled nine hours from San Francisco to the Anza-Borrego Desert, which sprawls over more than half a million acres near the Mexican border. Most of that territory is untouched wilderness, rocky washes home to deer, pumas, and golden eagles.
The place felt solitary. Thats why I chose it. I work as a doctor in an emergency room, a hospital, and an HIV clinic. I also take powerful immunosuppressants for autoimmune disease, one of which rendered the coronavirus vaccines far less effective in my body. My co-workers had tried to see all of the COVID patients to protect me, but as Omicron exploded in January, that became impossible. The woman whod broken her ankle tested positive. The grandfather whod lacerated his scalp did too, just like the middle-aged man who wanted to detox. Treatments for COVID were in short supply, and I wanted to get through the surge alive. So for several weeks, I canceled work, a privilege most cant afford. Forced into isolation, I decided to spend a week where solitude felt deliberate.
Back then I would have described my trip to the desert, and pandemic life broadly, as an intermission. The moment caseloads tumbled and hospitals stocked treatments, I would go hiking in Japan. I would brave the dating scene after a two-year hiatus. I would deploy with Doctors Without Borders. Meanwhile, I reassured myself that I just had to hold out a few months longer, even though the deadline kept retreating. Mine was an outlook equally comforting and wrong.
Read: The millions of people stuck in pandemic limbo
Kurt Vonnegut famously taught about six archetypes that underpin stories. In a video of one of his lectures, he draws on a chalkboard an x-axis for time and a y-axis for degree of good fortune, then traces a sine wave that plummets before rising again. We call this story Man in Hole, but it neednt be about a man, and it neednt be about somebody getting into a hole, Vonnegut says. Its a taleof fall and salvation, of mettle forged through trials, of ultimate catharsis and victorythat humans tell naturally. And it neednt be about a man and a hole. It could be about a world and a virus.
People in the U.S. have heard this story repeatedly over the past two and a half years, the media and government casting the downturn of each surge or advent of each therapeutic as the ladder that would soon carry us from the hole of the pandemic. Until that deliverance, we could cultivate rooftop gardens and sourdough starters to stave off our impatience. Its less scary to rewrite reality into a reassuring plot arcone with a familiar contour and clean resolutionthan to envision a story that doesnt end, or one whose ending permanently reconfigures our world.
But nearly eight months after my return from Anza-Borrego, the bridge of my nose is raw from my N95 mask. Yet another Omicron subvariant is spreading, as one strain supersedes another. Despite stunning progress in vaccines and drugs, COVID still threatens to hospitalize or disable me, and I dont foresee that reality changing imminently. While the mirage of normalcy recedes, glittering and unattainable, I remain marooned in another desert, staring down the truth that a sense of closure wont arrive anytime soon.
Read: The BA.5 wave is what COVID normal looks like
SARS-CoV-2 is only the latest pathogen to upend peoples lives. Working as a doctor who specializes in HIVa virus that profoundly affects my patients yet is ignored by most Americanshas taught me some truths about pandemics. The first time someone asked me whether HIV was still a problem, at a Christmas party years ago, I almost choked on my drink. But the question made twisted sense in a country where the notion that a pandemic is over depends little on science and more on which communities are affected.
The people I treat who gasp from pneumonia or seize from meningitis because they cant access or adhere to HIV medications are invariably poor, and many are Black or Latino. My acquaintance at the party was a straight, white, wealthy man in his 60s. He could exist in a story where the man had climbed out of the hole. Tale concluded, the credits rolled. That conversation is the reason why, whenever someone says the coronavirus pandemic is over, my first question is always, Over for whom?
Though Ive endured a sliver of the adversity my patients have, Im learning what its like to embody a less comfortable story than the one others are telling. I walk by packed bars. I scroll through photos of maskless crowds at concerts. I hear people use the phrase during the pandemic, as if its ended. After multiple false starts, the man in the dominant version of the story escaped the hole after the Omicron surge once and for all.
That narrative has real consequences, including lax precautions, risky workplace policies, and woefully inadequate funds for global COVID efforts. It sidelines millions of Americans: not only people like me dealing with high-risk medical conditions, but also survivors confronting long COVID, frontline workers depleted by burnout, and loved ones grieving those who have died, disproportionately people of color. I dont want my fellow San Franciscans to stop eating out or traveling; their lives will be freer than mine, a situation I accept as unavoidable even if it saddens me. I do wish, though, that the government would value my life by investing in preventing COVID transmission rather than issuing ever more anemic guidelines. And amid such policy failures, I wish people with less to fear from the virus would shift the burden off the shoulders of the more vulnerable, by wearing masks on public transit, staying home when theyre sick until a rapid test turns negative, and keeping up to date on boosters.
Read: The pandemics soft closing
After far too long, I have stopped clutching the myth of Man in Hole, in which I must either pretend the pandemic is overa self-deception that could land me in the hospitalor else wait indefinitely for a ladder, watching clouds scud over desert lowlands as I forfeit plans and dreams. I need a story to replace it, and for that, Ive turned to my patients.
A few years ago, I treated a young man who had contracted HIV just out of college. A pandemic that had never touched him suddenly shaded his life, and for months, that paralyzed him. He didnt look for work; he played video games all day and nearly lost his housing. Then, six months after his diagnosis, he started bringing a notebook to our visits. In it, he fashioned a plan. Nothing sweeping: Stop by two restaurants to ask about jobs. Get glasses. Post a dating profile. A year into our time together, he was working in a caf, had an adoring boyfriend who knew his status, had undergone a long-overdue surgery, and had started graduate school.
I started carrying a notebook recently. The plans I scribble down differ from those I might have conceived before the pandemic but share one feature: They are possible despite my constraints. I rode my bike from Seattle to Vancouver for an outdoor vacation. I attended a wedding in an N95 mask. I made enchiladas with friends after we all took rapid tests. I spoke on the radio about the injustices of pandemic policy, because adapting to my new reality doesnt mean abdicating the battle for a better one. That, too, I learned from people with HIV, who formed committees to pressure the FDA and the NIH, demanded inclusion in policy decisions, and were jailed for protesting for effective antiretrovirals, including one used in COVID treatment.
Read: COVID long-haulers are fighting for their future
I still seethe whenever I show up to an event thats too overcrowded and underventilated for me to stay, or board a plane where the overturned mask rule reminds me of the nations disregard for my health. But action is nonetheless a relief after spending so long stymied. If I were to chart my life on Vonneguts chalkboard now, Id draw a steep plunge followed by a slow and bumpy incline that hasnt yet neared the original precipice. Its a tale less tantalizing than Man in Hole, and galling in its incrementalism, but it does have one advantage: Its true.
Some people visit Anza-Borrego only after the rains, in perfect conditions, when a riot of wildflowers suffuses the land with color. I never have. People tend to assume that this is when the desert is most alive, but in truth, even in the most arid conditions, bobcats prowl, coyotes slink, and foxes rear their kits. When the wild sheep cant find water, they ram barrel cacti and devour the wet pulp. These animals know well that the rains dont always come. During the dry spells, life carries on.
Model
The present comprehensive model combines the detailed aerosol dynamics with anovel double Poisson model to estimate the probability that at least one carrier particle containing at least one virion will be deposited in the lungs. This model recognizes not only the discreteness of virions and their fluctuations but also that of the inhaled residues/droplets which vector them and hence, introduces fluctuations in the entire size spectrum18,19,20. The aerosol dynamics accounts for evaporation, residue formation, room dispersion, settling, plate-out and deposition in the respiratory tract of the inhaling subject.
In the present work, thefalling-to-mixing-plate-out model21 is implemented, which allows a droplet's residence time () to smoothly transition from a gravity-dominated (larger particles, diameter>50m, <100s) to a turbulence-dominated (small particle, diameter<5m, >3000s) regime as shown in Fig.1. It is worth mentioning that turbulent mixing extends the particle residence time for droplets of intermediate size. The variation of droplet lifetime with RH is significant only for large particles of diameter in the range of 2080m, mainly due to evaporation and gravitational settling in this size regime. The study results show that the lifetime of virusols in the indoor environment is determined mainly by deposition; however, viral deposition in the lungs is entirely determined by viral load and aerosol physics. The reciprocal of theresidence time of virus laden droplets to reach a given risk is an important parameter used to estimate the rate of propagation/transmissibility.
Lifetime of droplets in a typical indoor environment.
The present study attempts to calculate the exposure time required to achieve a tangible single-hit risk for a given expiratory event as well as the event reproduction number (({R}_{e})) for the given input parameters. Coughing18,22,23 and sneezing18 will be specific to the sick and symptomatic patients, although breathing23 and speaking18,20,23 are normal expiratory processes relevant to all subjects. Table 1 lists the parameters of expiratory emission18,23,24, such as droplet size distribution, frequency of emission, virion concentration in emitted droplets, etc.
For each expiratory event, numerical computations are used to determine the exposure time for different risk levels (0.1%, 1%, 10%, and 50%) and AERs (0.510h1). In the exposure time calculations, it is assumed that the emissions are continuous with the given rate and the value is estimated for a given risk. The model findings (Fig.2) reveal that, up to a critical viral load, the exposure duration decreases linearly with the viral load in the loglog graph. Although the findings are not shown here, the slope of the linear component increases with emission rate (S0). The critical viral load in this case is, 1013#/mL for breathing, 1011#/mL for coughing, 1010#/mL for sneezing, 1012#/mL for speaking for a risk of 0.1%. Beyond this critical viral load, the risk becomes a constant or invariant with respect to theviral load. These results also show that the risk is strongly dependent on the emission rate; for example, if the particle emission rate of 1000#/s for speech20 is considered, then the risk will increase in that proportion against the risk value estimated for 270#/s23,24.
Exposure time as a function of viral load for a given infection risk and ventilation rate in the indoor environment.
Alternative to the exposure time estimates, the single-hit risk (double Poisson model)is estimated under the influence of all the four expiratory events occurring simultaneously at given emission rates. The joint risk probability is then given by,
$${R}^{^{prime}}=1-{P}_{0,B}times {P}_{0,Sp}times {P}_{0,C}times {P}_{0,Sn,}$$
(1)
where ({P}_{0,B}=expleft({-N}_{d}left[1-expleft(-{n}_{v}right)right]right)) is the probability of zero-hit for thebreathing expiratory process, ({N}_{d}) is the typical number of droplets inhaled by a person, ({n}_{v}) is the average number of virions contained in a droplet, the suffices Sp, C and Sn denotes speaking, coughing and sneezing events respectively. It is to be noted that the transmissibility of a virus is measured via single-hit risk probability, dominated by the aerosol route of exposure. Also, it has been argued often that the transmissibility of the virus is linked with the viral load3,25,26, and hence, the risk of transmission to a susceptible individual is estimated as a function of viral load for specified exposure times (Fig.3).
(a) Variation of single hit risk for susceptible persons as a function of viral load for different times of exposure. (b) Variation of single hit risk for susceptible persons as a function of viral load for RH and AER.
Numerical results (Fig.3a) show that the risk is less than 1% for viral loads<108 RNA copies/mL for 1-h exposure period. But the risk rapidly approaches ahigher value (ex. 50% for 1010RNAcopies/mL and 10-min exposure), which demonstrates the high transmissibility of Delta and possibly Omicron variants which are reported to give rise to higher viral loads27,28,29,30,31 (Table 2). Thus, the present study clearly demonstrates the risk dependence on the viral load irrespective of variants. The model also explores the effect of ventilation rate on indoor infection risks (Fig.3b). When the air-exchange rate is increased from 0.5 to 10h1 for a 10-min exposure time, the single-hit risk decreases approximately by an order. This is primarily due to the elimination of airborne viruses from the indoor environment via ventilation. However, when viral load increases, the effect of enhancing ventilation reduces because smaller particles contribute to the risk as well. The ambient RH has only a minor impact on the risk; higher RH leads to larger final droplet sizes, which reduces their lifetime and therefore infection risk, as seen in Fig.3b.
Another essential metric to describe infection risk is the event reproduction number (Re), which is computed by multiplying the infection risk during the exposure time of each susceptible person by the number of susceptible people exposed for a specific exposure scenario. The following three scenarios are studied in this work to demonstrate how the model can be used: (a) 25 students in a classroom with an infected subject exposed for 4h; (b) 4 employees in an office environment with an infected subject exposed for 8h; (c) outbreak in a restaurant in Guangzhou, China. In the first scenario, the Re value approaches 2 when the viral load of the infected person in the classroom exceeds 5107#/mL, as shown in the results; also, the Re value shall remain (le)1 if the viral load is less than 2.5107#/mL for the given input and environmental parameters, as shown in Fig.4. Similarly, if the viral load is (le)7107#/mL for the given exposure conditions in an office setting, the Re value will be (le)1 in the second exposure scenario.
Event reproduction number as a function of viral load for two different indoor environments and exposure conditions.
The third case is a recognised outbreak16,32 in which a patient from an epidemic site had lunch in a restaurant of volume~435m3, with a floor area of 145m2. To compare the present study results with the literature values, the input parameters for this superspreading event from Buonanno et al.16 are considered. At the time of the presence of the case patient with a viral load of 107RNAcopies/mL, around 83 diners along with 8 staff members were present at the restaurant, and later some members of three families, who had lunch at the adjacent tables were found to be infected16,32. Considering speech as the continuous expiratory process, the infection risk is estimated as a function of exposure time (Fig.5). The infection risk due to the presence of the case patient in a limited volume of~45m3 (volume encompassing the table of case patient and other adjacent tables) is estimated as 23% for 2-h exposure period, i.e.,~(23) persons would be infected through aerosol transmission route (11 persons were present in this limited volume). This risk estimate is roughly half of the stated value in the literature16, which can be attributed to the differences in modelling because the input parameters are the same. If the complete volume of 435m3 with 91 susceptible persons is considered instead of 45m3, then the infection risk is reduced to~2% and~2 people would be infected. The decrease in risk value owing to an increase in indoor volume clearly demonstrates the dependence of the input parameter selection. The findings show that the model can be used to evaluate infection risk in low and medium risk events, including superspreading events. Thus, the new double Poissonian formalism combined with the comprehensive aerosoldynamics model introducedheremakes a significant value addition to the subject of risk evaluation of airborne diseases.
Infection risk as a function of exposure time for theoutbreak at a restaurant.
From Fig.5, it is observed that if droplet evaporation is neglected, the residual size will be higher, leading to larger removal by gravity. Hence, this would lead to lesser airborne droplet concentration and infection risk; i.e., 5.5% for this wet droplet distribution case compared to~23% (if dynamic evaporation is considered in the model) at the end of 2-h exposure scenario. Another effect related to particle deposition in the respiratory system, if lung deposition model as given by ICRP15 is replaced by a lung deposition probability of 1 (i.e., 100% deposition after inhalation), the estimated infection risk increases by~3.4 times, since a larger number of droplets are deposited in the respiratory tract leading to a higher value of infection risk. The risk value in this case is,~78% when compared to the standard model study value of~23%.
These findings imply that if the viral load is less than a certain value or if the contact period is limited for the specified emission and indoor settings, the event reproduction number will remain less than one. Alternatively, the limit on the number of people can also be estimated using the present approach for a given virus variant and the exposure duration. Hence, these studies can be used as a tool to aid decision/policy making as the spread of the disease can be directly predicted based on the viral load and other physically measurable input parameters.
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Residents in Allen, Auglaize, Hardin and Van Wert counties continue to be at high risk of exposure to COVID-19, while Putnam County remains under a medium risk advisory, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
There were an estimated 18 new hospital admissions per 100,000 people in Allen County in the last seven days, an increase over the previous week. Patients with COVID-19 illness occupied 3.2% of staffed hospital beds.
The Ohio Department of Health reported one additional death attributed to COVID-19 in Van Wert County.
Allen County
Cases ` 29,963 ` +235
Deaths ` 481 ` 0
Recovered ` 28,757 ` +259
Auglaize County
Cases ` 12,682 ` +95
Deaths ` 190 ` 0
Recovered ` 12,086 ` +147
Hardin County
Cases ` 7,755 ` +68
Deaths ` 162 ` 0
Recovered ` 7,390 ` +78
Putnam County
Cases ` 8,952 ` +45
Deaths ` 159 ` 0
Recovered ` 8,642 ` +45
Van Wert County
Cases ` 7,323 ` +48
Deaths ` 150 ` +1
Recovered ` 7,033 ` +62
Ohio
Cases ` 3,026,110 ` +24,067
Deaths ` 39,310 ` +90
Recovered ` 2,910,126 ` +30,255
Recovered defined as symptom onset more than 21 days prior, not deceased. Only verified deaths included now.
Source: coronavirus.ohio.gov
Updated 2 p.m. 8/18/22
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Florida - Friday August 19, 2022: The first case of Monkey Pox has been confirmed in a four-year old child living in Martin County.
However, the states leading health official sought to re-assure the public this week that that was an isolated case. They say the disease remains confined primarily to a limited group of people and does not pose a threat to the population at large.
As of Thursday, 1,432 cases of Monkey Pox had been reported throughout Florida.
Dr. Ulyee Choe, the Florida Department of Healths Statewide Medical Director briefed reports on the status of the outbreak. The majority of cases are occurring in the MSN community, men who have sex with men, specifically a sub-set that engage in high risk behavior such as multiple sexual partners as well as anonymous sexual encounters.
The vast majority of the cases have been reported in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and almost all the cases have been reported in men. Of the Florida cases the medium age has been 38. Looking at the gender breakdown, 99% have been male, 1% female. 51% are people living with HIV.
Six cases have now been reported in Martin County however, including a confirmed case in a 4-year-old, according to the Reportable Disease Frequency Report on the Florida Health website. You have to keep in mind its not readily transmissible," said Dr. Choe. "It spreads by direct skin to skin contact with lesions and not by casual contact.
Three cases have been reported in St. Lucie Counties. None have been reported Indian River or Okeechobee.
Dr. Choe also emphasized that Monkey Pox is not deadly and the cases reported in Florida have been relatively mild. He said Testing and vaccines are now available at county health clinics. The vaccine supply remains limited. To date Florida has received a little less than 65,000. Were in the process of converting all our shots to intradermal to really stretch that vaccine supply.
Monkeypox is characterized by a rash that develops into hard, round, fluid or pus-filled skin lesions. Transmission generally requires close human-to-human contact with the lesions or with contaminated items like clothing. The disease is rarely fatal.
Do you think you have or have been diagnosed with MPX?Click HERE for more information on how to protect yourself and others while you are symptomatic.
Learn more about monkeypox:
The majority of people likely infected with the omicron variant of COVID-19 were unaware, according to a study from a medical center in Los Angeles, Calif. Al Bello/Getty Images hide caption
The majority of people likely infected with the omicron variant of COVID-19 were unaware, according to a study from a medical center in Los Angeles, Calif.
The majority of people likely infected with the omicron variant that causes COVID-19 were not aware they contracted the virus, which likely played a role in the rapid spread of omicron, according to a study published this week.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai, a nonprofit health organization based in Los Angeles, examined the infectious status of individuals during the omicron surge in the U.S.
Omicron was first detected in November 2021 and has become the most dominant strain of COVID-19. Common symptoms are typically less severe than other variants and include cough, headache, fatigue, sore throat and a runny nose, according to the researchers.
The study analyzed 2,479 blood samples from adult employees and patients at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center around the time of the omicron variant surge.
Of the 210 people who likely contracted the omicron variant based on antibodies in their blood 56% percent did not know they had the virus, the researchers found.
They also found that only 10% of those who were unaware reported having any symptoms relating to a common cold or other type of infection.
"We hope people will read these findings and think, 'I was just at a gathering where someone tested positive,' or, 'I just started to feel a little under the weather. Maybe I should get a quick test,'" said Dr. Susan Cheng, one of the authors of the study.
"The better we understand our own risks, the better we will be at protecting the health of the public as well as ourselves," said Cheng, who directs the Institute for Research on Healthy Aging in the Department of Cardiology at Cedars-Sinai's Smidt Heart Institute.
A lack of awareness could be a major factor in the rapid transmission of the virus between individuals, according to the study.
"Our study findings add to evidence that undiagnosed infections can increase transmission of the virus," said Dr. Sandy Y. Joung, first author of the study who serves as an investigator at Cedars-Sinai.
"A low level of infection awareness has likely contributed to the fast spread of Omicron," Young said.
Although awareness among health care employees was slightly higher, the researchers said it remained low overall.
Researchers say further studies are needed, "involving larger numbers of people from diverse ethnicities and communities ... to learn what specific factors are associated with a lack of infection awareness," according to the news release.
CLEVELAND If youve had COVID-19 more than once, youre certainly not alone. Reinfections are becoming more common.
Viruses are very smart. If they are actively infecting a large swath of our population, there are active mutations that keep on happening in these viruses, said Abhijit Duggal, MD, critical care specialist for Cleveland Clinic. This is something that has been described very well, even before COVID.
Dr. Duggal further explains that once youre infected, your immune system will remember that specific variant. However, if a new one comes along, it may be harder to detect which can lead to reinfection.
He said its very similar to how influenza changes every year.
So, what can someone do to help protect themselves?
Dr. Duggal said all the same precautions still apply, like wearing a mask, social distancing when possible and regularly washing your hands. The same goes for getting vaccinated and boosted.
While the vaccine may not be able to prevent COVID completely, it will help lessen the severity of illness.
When it comes to vaccination, its not just a matter of infection, it is a matter of severity of infection. And that is something that has been shown time and time again through these variants, that if you are vaccinated and boosted appropriately, the risk of severe infection goes down significantly, he said.
Dr. Duggal said theres no telling how many times an individual can get COVID-19, which is why its important to protect yourself.
