As the US marks Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start of summer, the seven-day average for COVID-19 cases in the U.S. are more than six times what they were a year ago.
The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center showed a seven-day average of 119,725 cases as of Saturday. That figure held at 17,887 cases on May 28 of last year.
Despite the rising infection rate, COVID-related deaths were down from last year, a sign of increased immunity through vaccines and prior infections, along with wider availability of treatments.
The seven-day average of 470 deaths reported on Friday marked a decrease from 637 on the same day last year.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has said that about 54 percent of the U.S. population is experiencing lowCOVID-19 community levels, though some areas are seeing medium and high levels.
But the more than fivefold increase in infections comes as health experts have warned Americans to exercise caution ahead of a possible surge.
Almost a month ago, Deborah Birx, a leading member of the Trump administrations White House coronavirus task force, said that Americans should be preparing right now for a potential surge in this summer across the southern United States.
Bill Gates has warned that it is possible that the worst of this pandemic has not yet occurred, pressing for more investments needed to prevent a future pandemic.
Were still at risk of this pandemic generating a variant that would be even more transmissive and even more fatal, he said. Its not likely, I dont want to be a voice of doom and gloom, but its way above a 5 percent risk that this pandemic, we havent even seen the worst of it.
Still, current COVID-19 case numbers are well below peaks this winter, when the highly transmissible omicron variant contributed to a widespread uptick in inflections.
Coronavirus cases are up more than 25 percent in the United States over the past two weeksand those are just the ones we know about. Experts warn that the true size of the current outbreak could be 10, or even 14, times worse than the official counts suggest.
Take Hawaii, for example. Last week, the state reported about 900 new cases a day, but a spokesperson for Hawaiis department of health, Brooks Baehr, warned that the true number could be five, six, seven times greater. That would be an extra 4,500 to 6,500 new cases every day, Baehr told the local news channel KHON2.
What exactly is the average person supposed to do with that information? Many people know that COVID casesas shown in all those jagged charts and splotchy, color-coded maps that decorate front pagesare likely underreported right now. That uncertainty makes calculating ones own risk extra tricky. If cases could be 10 times worse than what you see on a graph, how do you know if your local outbreak is bad enough that its worth slapping your mask back on? Or, more drastically, canceling plans altogether?
Read: You are going to get COVID again and again and again
All of this uncertainty could be a bargain worth taking. Washington Secretary of Health Umair A. Shah told me that his states COVID team anticipated this data gap cropping up with the distribution of at-home tests, which arent always included in official tallies. But for Shah, giving people the tools to swab themselves outweighed concerns about losing track of the data. If Im going to try to trade off, whats better? For me to know all the numbers or for me to have people empowered to make good decisions? I would trade off to make sure people are empowered to make good decisions.
The gap between reported and actual cases is probably as much of an undercount as weve ever had during the pandemic, Jason Salemi, an associate epidemiology professor at the University of South Florida College of Public Health, told me. The state of Washington doesnt attempt to predict the gap between real and reported cases, Shah told me. We feel that whatever [estimate] we come up with is likely not going to be accurate. Because when you dont know, you dont know, right?
Salemi cited three big reasons for the size of the fissure this spring: first, the increased availability of at-home tests; second, a decline in testing overall; and third, the mix of viral conditionsor the fact that variants thought to cause less-severe disease are circulating around a country thats already got a good amount of immunity thanks to vaccination and infection. The last combo can lead to fewer people coming down with symptoms, which may make them less likely to get tested, he said.
At-home tests offer a kind of pandemic-tracking catch-22. While such tests have afforded Americans more visibility into their own dance with the virus, they also make measuring the pandemics movement from afar challenging: A positive result in ones living room doesnt always work its way into the official count. (The CDC does not require such results to be reported, but strongly encourages that people let their health-care provider know. Some test makers, states, and counties offer options for self-reporting ones results.) In a perfect world, obviously, we need to figure out ways to make sure that these at-home antigen tests, those results are making their way into the official numbers, Salemi told me. But it is way more important that people are taking advantage of the at-home antigen tests and utilizing them to make decisions in how to interact with their community.
So should Americans just throw out case-level data entirely? Experts told me that the numbers do still have some use, even if theyre less illuminating than before: monitoring the direction of the pandemicparticularly if used in combination with other metrics that arent affected by testing volume or the popularity of at-home tests.
Read: What COVID hospitalization numbers are missing
They pointed me toward several alternatives, including hospitalizations, the number of people on ventilators, the number of patients in the ICU, deaths, and wastewater data, as well as keeping tabs on what variants are circulating. If I had a cockpit with all those gauges, I would look at all that, Shah told me, though he stressed that hed prefer that members of the community focus more on taking action than on datathat is, masking up and getting boosters over refreshing charts.
If you are frequently monitoring the data, maybe consider your cadence. I asked Salemi if people who are very worried about COVID should really be checking four or five pandemic metrics daily. I think youre doing yourself a big disservice if youre looking at these numbers every single day, because there are reporting anomalies and things that change, he said.
Tara Kirk Sell, of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said that shes personally watching COVID case numbers mostly to understand trends and assumes theyre undercounted. I dont worry too much that I dont know exactly what the level is since a lot more people are getting sick right now is close enough for personal decision making, she told me over email.
Elizabeth Carlton, an associate professor at the Colorado School of Public Health, suggests starting with the CDCs community-levels map, which assigns counties colors using a combination of three metrics (one of which is cases). Green is low, yellow is medium, and red is high. If your county is in the red, then no more data-sleuthing needed,she wrote in an emailstart wearing a mask indoors. If its yellow, a simple approach is to round up. As for green: Personally, I have been treating green as low-risk and, in that case, rarely wear masks in public unless its really crowded. That said, I dont have an immune-compromised household member and at least one person in my household already had a SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Another option would be to forgo charts overall, and mine your social network for clues. If youre hearing your friends and your co-workers get sick, that means your risk is up and that means you probably need to be testing and masking, Samuel Scarpino, the vice president of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundations Pandemic Prevention Institute, told The New York Times earlier this year.
And of course, you can always put to use the very thing thats contributing to the chaos: Just last week, the Biden administration made a third round of free at-home tests available to Americans. While they may not sharpen our collective understanding of the pandemic, they can at least provide individuals with a bit of controlsomething thats been hard to come by amid two years of upheaval.
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Maine is the first state to see at least 30 percent of its eligible population receive a second COVID-19 booster shot, according to Dr. Nirav Shah, director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Maine once again lives up to our Dirigo motto, Shah tweeted Friday, noting that the state leads the nation in second booster shots with a rate of 30.5 percent of those eligible.
Adults 50 years and older, and people who are immunocompromised, may receive a second booster, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Of Maines 1.34 million population, 74.23 percent have been fully vaccinated, and 756,933 doses of booster shots had been administered as of Saturday, according to the Maine CDC. The tally of booster doses does not break down how many people have been boosted, or whether they got first or second booster shots.
Meanwhile Sunday, the Maine CDC reported 162 people were hospitalized with the coronavirus. Of those, 20 were in critical care units and three on ventilators. Thats an improvement from Saturday, when 166 people were in hospitals statewide with the virus.
The state reported 475 new cases of COVID-19 Saturday, compared to 510 new cases on Friday. The true number of infections is underreported because many people who take at-home tests do not report results.
Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, said of those who are in indoor settings with large numbers of people without masks, there is a good likelihood you will suffer a breakthrough infection, The Washington Post reported on Sunday.
In Maine, with most counties now categorized by the U.S. CDC as being at medium or high risk of coronavirus transmission, if youre in a group of 25 people, it is likely that one of them is positive for COVID, said Dr. Dora Anne Mills, the chief health improvement officer for MaineHealth and former head of the Maine CDC.
If youre fully boosted, relatively healthy and not elderly, even if you contract COVID, the chances are it will be mild, though its hard to know what your chances are of contracting long haul COVID, Mills said Sunday in an email.
If someone wants to go to a movie or an indoor concert, Mills recommends being fully boosted, wearing a high-quality mask and sitting where the ventilation is better. She also recommends having a plan for how to access treatment if infected. The risk for severe COVID-19 illness goes up steadily from age 40 and over, and much more precipitously from age 65 and up, she said.
Personally, Mills said she would go to the movies with conditions.
I feel fine to go to the movies, but while the COVID incidence is still high, Im choosing show times that are less crowded, and Im wearing a high-quality mask, sitting away from others, and of course making sure Im up (on) my vaccinations, Mills said.
Since the pandemic began, Maine has recorded 262,572 cases of the virus and 2,346 deaths. The state typically does not report additional deaths and cases on Sundays and Mondays.
The death toll reported on Friday was one higher than Saturday. The reason is the state lowered the death toll by one after the Maine CDC reviewed and validated information submitted to the agency, Robert Long of the Maine CDC said Sunday in an email. One death previously reported as a COVID-related death did not meet the criteria to be classified as such, Long said.
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BOULDER, Colo. Boulder and Jackson counties in Colorado have been designated as having high rates of COVID-19 transmission by the Centers for Disease Control.
Heading into the holiday weekend, some health experts are warning that increased travel could cause cases to spike further, as they continue to rise across the country.
The CDC recommends communities with high rates of the virus wear masks indoors as well as on public transportation. It also recommends everyone who is able to get vaccinated and boosted, and be tested for COVID-19 if they experience symptoms.
This update from the public health agency comes as crowds flock to Boulder for both the Boulder Creek Festival and the BOLDERBoulder 10k race over Memorial Day weekend. While a few chose to mask up even during their outdoor activities Saturday, the vast majority did not.
I feel like weve been cooped up for a really long time, said Rachel Klopper, who was visiting Boulder from Denver. I mean, obviously you still need to be safebe vaccinated, wear masks indoors. But, being outdoors now in the open air, and being able to interact with other people without being terrified and being able to see summerits really lovely.
CDC data shows the current case rate in Boulder county is nearly 319 per 100,000 people; but, even with cases trending in the wrong direction across the country, we are still far below reported levels seen in the winter during the omicron surge.
Study by researchers of Keck School of Medicine of USC and Kaiser Permanente Southern California finds link between exposure to airborne particulate matter and increased risk of serious coronavirus complications
By Jeremy Deutchman
Downtown Los Angeles covered in a layer of smog. (Photo iStock)
Data from a new USC study shows a significant increase in the risk of severe outcomes for COVID-19 patients exposed to fine particles (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), two common (and correlated) components of ambient air pollution in Southern California. Produced by ground and air traffic, industrial burning and other sources, these air pollutants can exacerbate the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus over both the short and long term.
Our research demonstrated that one-year average exposure to PM2.5 translated to a 20-30 percent increase in the risk of hospitalization, intensive respiratory support and ICU admissions from COVID-19. Exposure to NO2 for one month carried an increased risk of 12-18 percent, said Zhanghua Chen, assistant professor of population and public health sciences at the Keck School of Medicine of USC and co-first author of the study. We also saw that long-term PM2.5 exposure was associated with a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19.
The study appears in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.
Researchers collaborated with Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) to examine a cohort of more than 74,000 COVID-19 patients diagnosed from March to August 2020. With detailed residential address history linked to Kaiser Permanente members electronic medical records (EMR), investigators were able to accurately predict exposure history for specific pollutants.
Individual-level results
Earlier in the pandemic, a number of studies using national data in ecological analyses found a link between long-term air pollution exposure and increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality. However, this approach raised important questions and concerns.
Ecological analyses are subject to a lot of biases, and it wasnt clear whether the findings could be applied beyond the community level, Chen said. In our population cohort study, we were able to leverage the sophistication of EMR to create a well-defined classification of the severity of COVID-19 outcomes tied to air pollution exposure at the individual level.
The results were clear, noted coauthor and Professor of Population and Public Health Sciences Frank Gilliland, MD, PhD. Our study demonstrates that breathing clean air may reduce the severity of the infection. When someone is infected, reducing their exposure to air pollutants maybe beneficial, as it may decrease the risk for poor outcomes and also has many other health benefits.
A compelling cohort
In addition to providing individual-level results, utilizing the Kaiser Permanente cohort for the study conferred other benefits as well. Kaiser Permanente has enriched patient background information also known as covariates encompassing factors including race, ethnicity, sex and socioeconomic status, which enabled us to adjust for social demographics and comorbidities like diabetes, obesity and asthma, said corresponding author Anny Xiang, PhD, MS, a senior research scientist at KPSCs Department of Research & Evaluation. Also, whereas other studies were more focused on older populations, which are more susceptible to COVID-19, ours has a much broader representation of age range because Kaiser Permanente covers such a large percentage of Southern California residents.
Based on their findings, Chen and her colleagues now plan to examine intervention approaches such as using air purifiers to reduce individual levels of PM2.5 exposure. Were starting some crossover clinical trials to investigate these types of strategies on a personal level, to see whether they can help reduce cardiometabolic disease risk, she said.
About the Study
Additional authors of the study include Brian Huang, Sandrah Eckel, Roya Gheissari and Duncan Thomas from Keck School of Medicine; Margo Sidell, Ting Chow, and Mayra Martinez from Kaiser Permanente Southern California; and Fred Lurmann from Sonoma Technology, Inc.
The study was supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (3R01ES029963-01) and the Keck School of Medicine Department of Population and Public Health Sciences COVID-19 Pandemic Research Center at USC.
While coronavirus cases are rising across the nation and in Alabama, vaccination rates have slowed.
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 221.2 million people in the United States are fully vaccinated, or about 66.6% of the countrys population. About 46.7% of fully vaccinated people have received a first booster dose.
COVID cases are rising slowly in Alabama and hospitalizations are inching upwards as the state closed out the week by adding more than 1,000 cases on Friday. That marks the first time the state has added at least 1,000 cases in a single day since March 2, according to data from the Alabama Department of Public Health. Fridays total brought the states weekly case count to 4,554..
The United States as of May 27 reached over 1 million COVID-19-related deaths and nearly 83.8 million COVID-19 cases, according to Johns Hopkins University. Stacker.com compiled a list of the counties with highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in Alabama using data from the U.S. Department of Health& Human Services and Covid Act Now.
Counties are ranked by the highest vaccination rate as of May 26, 2022. Due to inconsistencies in reporting, some counties do not have vaccination data available. See the top 10 below, and check out the full list here.
10. Lowndes County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 51.4% (4,997 fully vaccinated)
--- 0.2% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 792 (77 total deaths)
--- 97.5% more deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 27,082 (2,634 total cases)
--- 1.3% more cases per 100k residents than Alabama
9. Sumter County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 51.9% (6,447 fully vaccinated)
--- 1.2% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 418 (52 total deaths)
--- 4.2% more deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 21,027 (2,613 total cases)
--- 21.4% less cases per 100k residents than Alabama
8. Montgomery County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 52.6% (119,231 fully vaccinated)
--- 2.5% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 420 (952 total deaths)
--- 4.7% more deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 24,587 (55,687 total cases)
--- 8.1% less cases per 100k residents than Alabama
7. Bullock County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 53.9% (5,449 fully vaccinated)
--- 5.1% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 535 (54 total deaths)
--- 33.4% more deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 23,097 (2,333 total cases)
--- 13.6% less cases per 100k residents than Alabama
6. Wilcox County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 54.1% (5,607 fully vaccinated)
--- 5.5% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 443 (46 total deaths)
--- 10.5% more deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 27,948 (2,899 total cases)
--- 4.5% more cases per 100k residents than Alabama
5. Marengo County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 54.7% (10,312 fully vaccinated)
--- 6.6% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 573 (108 total deaths)
--- 42.9% more deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 27,610 (5,208 total cases)
--- 3.2% more cases per 100k residents than Alabama
4. Jefferson County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 58.6% (386,233 fully vaccinated)
--- 14.2% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 360 (2,374 total deaths)
--- 10.2% less deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 28,422 (187,177 total cases)
--- 6.3% more cases per 100k residents than Alabama
3. Hale County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 61.6% (9,024 fully vaccinated)
--- 20.1% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 724 (106 total deaths)
--- 80.5% more deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 32,523 (4,765 total cases)
--- 21.6% more cases per 100k residents than Alabama
2. Madison County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 62.6% (233,584 fully vaccinated)
--- 22.0% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 260 (970 total deaths)
--- 35.2% less deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 24,449 (91,174 total cases)
--- 8.6% less cases per 100k residents than Alabama
1. Choctaw County
- Population that is fully vaccinated: 66.7% (8,397 fully vaccinated)
--- 30.0% higher vaccination rate than Alabama
- Cumulative deaths per 100k: 294 (37 total deaths)
--- 26.7% less deaths per 100k residents than Alabama
- Cumulative cases per 100k: 16,300 (2,052 total cases)
--- 39.1% less cases per 100k residents than Alabama
Misinformation and confusion about the COVID-19 vaccines and pregnancy remains widespread, with most people including women who are pregnant or trying to get pregnant either believing or being uncertain about at least one of three false claims theyve heard, a new KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor shows.
Among women who are pregnant or trying to get pregnant the group for whom accurate information about the vaccines safety before, during and after pregnancy is most important 72% either believe or are unsure about at least one of the myths. Specifically:
More than two years into the pandemic, theres a surprising amount of confusion about the vaccines safety for pregnant women, said Mollyann Brodie, a KFF Executive Vice President and Executive Director of the Public Opinion and Survey Research Program. The fact that so many younger women incorrectly believe the vaccines can cause infertility or that theyre not safe for pregnant women highlights the real challenges facing public health officials.
The widespread reach of this misinformation may contribute to the publics lower level of confidence in the safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines for pregnant woman. For instance, about half (53%) of adults say they are confident in the vaccines safety for pregnant women and those trying to conceive, well below the 72% share who express confidence in its use for adults generally.
About 4 in 10 (42%) women who are or planning to become pregnant express confidence in the vaccines safety for pregnant women and those trying to conceive.
As part of KFFs THE CONVERSATION / LA CONVERSACIN campaign, OB-GYNs, a nurse and midwife affirm the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy and debunk myths about the impact on fertility in 40+ FAQ videos. Tailored media messages and community tools address information needs about the vaccines.
Designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF, the Vaccine Monitor survey was conducted from May 10-19, 2022, among a nationally representative random digit dial telephone sample of 1,537 adults, including 306 Hispanic adults and 248 non-Hispanic Black adults. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish online (1,246) and by phone (39). The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full sample. For results based on subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher.
The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitoris an ongoing research project tracking the publics attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations. Using a combination of surveys and qualitative research, this project tracks the dynamic nature of public opinion as vaccine development and distribution unfold, including vaccine confidence and acceptance, information needs, trusted messengers and messages, as well as the publics experiences with vaccination.
Novavax Inc. NVAX, +17.46% is still waiting for U.S. regulators to decide whether to authorize its COVID-19 vaccine, which some experts believe could serve as an alternative option for people who are hesitant to get a mRNA vaccine.
Novavaxs vaccine, called Nuvaxovid, is a recombinant protein-based shot that is similar in design to a flu shot thats been available in the U.S. since 2013.
This type of vaccine has a different makeup than the mRNA vaccines developed by Moderna Inc. MRNA, +8.73%, BioNTech SE BNTX, +5.57% and Pfizer Inc. PFE, -0.15% as well as the adenovirus shot from Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +0.91%.
I do think there is a minority group who would take a protein vaccine over an mRNA vaccine, Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health at the University of Maryland, told Kaiser Health News. (Nuezil is a researcher for one of the Novavax vaccine trials.)
The Food and Drug Administration is expected to make a decision after the regulators vaccines advisory committee meets June 7 to discuss the risks and benefits of the investigational two-dose shot.
Nuvaxovid has been authorized as a vaccine or booster in several countries, including Australia, Europe, Japan, the U.K., and Singapore, where a rollout of the shot is currently underway. The company said Wednesday it is participating in a new Phase 2 trial in the U.K. that gives a Novavax booster to teens who were vaccinated with the BioNTech SE BNTX, +5.57% and Pfizer Inc. PFE, -0.15% vaccine. The company also applied for authorization of a booster for teens in the U.K. earlier this month.
That said, investor interest in Novavax has largely waned at the same time that the intensity of the pandemic has lessened. The stock hit an all-time high of $319.93 on Feb. 8, 2021, but has since tumbled 86% since through Wednesdays closing price of $46.13.
We see a difficult commercial setup for Nuvaxovidbased on decreasing C-19 booster use, unclear benefit as a heterologous option, and waning immunity against new variants, BofA Securities analyst Alec Stranahan said in a research note to clients last week.
The shot is expected to generate $4.2 billion in revenue this year, according to a FactSet consensus.
Other COVID-19 news to know:
Heres what the numbers say:
The U.S. is averaging 110,614 cases a day, up 31% from two weeks ago, according to a New York Times tracker. The country is averaging 25,755 hospitalizations a day, up 29% from two weeks ago. The average daily death toll of 361 is up 10% from two weeks ago. Ciara Linnane
