LONDONThe U.K., in an experiment watched by the world, lifted most Covid-19 restrictions in the summer, wagering that immunity from vaccinations and prior infections would keep the virus at bay.
Three months later, the British experience shows that, in the face of the highly transmissible Delta variant of the coronavirus, herd immunity is elusive. Covid-19 cases and deaths have risen in recent weeks as winter has begun to close in. The bottom line: Reliance on immunity, which is imperfect to begin with and wanes over time, doesnt guarantee a quick victory over Delta.
After another brutal spike in coronavirus cases and deaths this summer fueled by the Delta variant infections are declining in the United States, down 50 percent from their peak in September.
Experts say what comes next is hard to predict, and we often do not know why the virus spreads the way it does. But looking back at the outbreak so far can provide some clues about how the virus may spread in the future.
Average cases per 100,000 people
Summer 2020
June August
Fall 2020
September November
Winter
December February
Spring 2021
March May
Summer and Fall 2021
June Oct. 20
Note: Most Nebraska counties did not report data during the summer of 2021.
The country has suffered through five waves of the pandemic now, depending on how you count. Each of these waves has a different complexity and pattern, said Alessandro Vespignani, the director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University in Boston.
During the first wave, for instance, strict stay-at-home measures and drastic changes in behavior may have stalled the virus for a time. Last fall, with those measures and behavior comparatively relaxed, record-breaking surges in the Midwest rippled outward to the South and both coasts. By the time the highly contagious Delta variant fueled a wave across the country this summer, vaccines were widely available, shifting the pattern once again.
Vaccines have clearly changed which places have been hit and how much theyve been hit, said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.
Below is a look at five times that the U.S. case curve hit a peak, and the lessons and insights experts have gleaned from each wave.
Outbreaks in
meatpacking facilities
Outbreaks in
meatpacking facilities
Outbreaks in
meatpacking facilities
In the spring of 2020, the first wave hit a few areas particularly hard, including New York City, New Orleans and Albany, Ga. A lot came down to random chance insofar as where the virus struck first, experts said, though population density and transportation hubs may have played a role.
Tests were hard to come by during this period, so cases were drastically underreported. But death data indicates the Northeasts outbreak was one of the worst of the whole pandemic one in about 400 New York City residents died within the span of two months.
Early stay-at-home orders and widespread, drastic behavioral changes flattened the curve in those outbreaks, however, preventing the coronavirus from rippling across the country in waves, the way it would in later surges.
While hospitals overflowed in the Northeast corridor, nearby areas like Maine did not see large outbreaks. Isolated hot spots broke out largely in places where people were unable to socially distance, like nursing homes, prisons and meatpacking plants.
I think its easy to miss how bad things could have gotten and how much better we did than we could have largely because of the lockdowns, said Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina.
Outbreaks on
Native American
reservations
Outbreaks on
Native American
reservations
Cases surged again in the summer of 2020, but this time Sun Belt states suffered the worst outbreaks. Many states that set new records for cases and deaths were also those that reopened first, including South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. Experts say seasonality perhaps the Sun Belts summer heat driving people indoors may also have been a factor.
The summer surge slammed many metropolitan areas of the South and Southwest, including Houston, Miami and Phoenix. Without tight virus restrictions in place, the virus spread outward into suburbs and exurbs. By the end of the summer, most of the worst outbreaks were occurring in rural areas.
If you think of the spring wave in 2020, it was more pointlike around urban areas. In the other waves, you see more of a general flow, Dr. Vespignani said, Like when you throw a stone in a pond.
The flow of cases is clearer in the surge that began in the Upper Midwest in September 2020. North and South Dakota had few virus restrictions in place to contain an outbreak, and both states had particularly bad spikes. One in 10 residents tested positive for the virus in the fall in North Dakota, and experts think many more cases went undetected.
From there, the outbreak expanded beyond the Midwest, reaching both coasts and stretching down to the South in a devastating wave. The country saw more daily cases and deaths in January than any other time before or since.
You do see this movement, almost like its moving from county to county, said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Columbia University, who said researchers found community-to-community transmission played an important role in virus spread during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. But Dr. Shaman said factors other than proximity could have also played an important role with Covid.
Disparate communities may have similar school opening dates, for instance, experience the same cold fronts, or share similar behavior patterns, all of which could lead to independent outbreaks at the same time.
When youre looking at anything after October of last year, the virus is everywhere. It didnt need to be reintroduced, Dr. Shaman said.
Then, in one community after another, cases fell often as quickly as they had risen. A sharp fall after a peak is not uncommon during epidemics, experts said. When a virus rapidly spreads through a community, it eventually runs out of people to infect.
By Spring 2021, U.S. cases had retreated far from their winter peak. At the same time, a more-contagious variant that had fueled an enormous surge in the United Kingdom, called Alpha, was quickly becoming dominant in the United States.
Michigan saw a large surge in cases and deaths, worrying experts that the variant would cause a similar nationwide outbreak. Instead, the virus seemed to stop at the Michigan border in May.
Epidemiologists still do not know why Michigan was unlucky or why the outbreak did not spread to neighboring states. But some noted that it took place right around when all adults first became eligible for the vaccine, and before social distancing behavior loosened significantly.
Its possible that people became more cautious during the resurgence, slowing the spread, said Dr. Lessler, the University of North Carolina epidemiologist. Then vaccines helped stamp it out.
Case and death records
broken across the South
Case and death records
broken across the South
In June, U.S. coronavirus cases were at a low point not seen since the beginning of the pandemic, and nearly half the population had received at least one shot. States lifted virtually all virus restrictions and people relaxed their behavior in celebration.
The timing proved disastrous, especially for areas with lower vaccination rates. Another variant, this time Delta, took hold and quickly grew to account for a majority of U.S. cases. Missouri saw the first big surge of the Delta wave.
Thats where the fire was ignited; then the fire started to spread to other places, Dr. Vespignani said.
Soon, that outbreak moved across Arkansas, then Louisiana, both states with low vaccination rates. Florida became another early Delta hot spot. By the end of August, most states in the South had hit new records for daily cases or deaths and the virus turned northward, causing surges in the upper Midwest and Mountain West.
While the Delta wave rolled across much of the country, some places were relatively spared.
That fire was never able to get, for instance, into the Northeast corridor, Dr. Vespignani said. Its where theres one of the highest vaccination rates. Its like theres a wall.
Some experts say that the vaccination campaign and much of the country having already experienced several waves of outbreaks which have conferred some immunity to those who were infected and recovered have made them cautiously optimistic for the winter.
Dr. Lessler, who helps run the Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of research groups that model the future of the outbreak, said none of the groups forecast a substantial winter peak in the United States this year.
We might see a little bump in cases, and of course people could radically change behavior or we could see a variant, Dr. Lessler said, but he added that he did not think a substantial peak was likely.
All the same, there are bound to remain places where the virus can spread, as each new wave has shown. And questions still remain about how long immunity will last.
The difference between the Michigan Alpha wave in Spring 2021 and the Delta wave is really telling you that the wall that youve built might work for one variant, but it might not be enough for the next one, Mr. Vespignani said. There might be another variant that is more transmissible and with more immune evasion. Thats why we need to build the wall as high as possible.
Illinois health officials on Friday reported 15,131 new COVID-19 cases in the past week, along with 183 additional deaths and over 209,651 new vaccine doses administered.
In all, 1,680,908 cases of coronavirus have been reported in the state since the pandemic began, according to the latest data from the Illinois Department of Public Health. The additional deaths reported this week bring the state to 25,590 confirmed COVID fatalities.
The state has administered 773,791 tests since last Friday, officials said, bringing the total to more than 34 million tests conducted during the pandemic.
The states seven-day positivity rate on all tests dropped to 2.2% from 2.5% last week, officials said. The rolling average seven-day positivity rate for cases as a percentage of total tests remained at 2% over the past week.
Over the past seven days, a total of 209,651doses of the coronavirus vaccine have been administered to Illinois residents. The latest figures brought the states average to 29,950 daily vaccination doses over the last week, per IDPH data.
More than 15.2 million vaccine doses have been administered in Illinois since vaccinations began in December. More than 54% of Illinois resident are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with more than 69% receiving at least one dose.
As of midnight Thursday, 1,277 patients were hospitalized due to COVID in the state. Of those patients, 323 are in ICU beds, and 152 are on ventilators.
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 have passed 242.4 million globally, according to Johns Hopkins University. The number of confirmed deaths stands at more than 4.92 million. More than 6.76 billion vaccination doses have been administered globally, according to Our World in Data.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended COVID-19 vaccine booster shots for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson jabs. They also said Americans can choose a different shot from their original inoculation as a booster.
The US has called on all World Trade Organization (WTO) members to support an intellectual property waiver for COVID-19 vaccines.
New Zealand has set a 90% vaccination target to end its strict COVID-19 restrictions, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced yesterday.
Lockdown restrictions have been eased in Melbourne, Australia, with pubs, restaurants and hair salons reopening.
Bavaria's leader, Markus Soeder, said yesterday that Germany should not let its COVID-19-related state of emergency expire as cases rise again.
Thailand is set to allow quarantine-free travel from 46 countries from 1 November, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha announced Thursday.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has urged the G20 to step up donations of COVID-19 vaccine doses to the global south.
The WHO also said COVID-19 may have killed between 80,000 and 180,000 healthcare workers up to May of this year - and insisted they be prioritized for vaccination.
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people in selected countries.
Image: Our World in Data
A booster dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was 95.6% effective against the disease when compared to a vaccinated group that did not get the third shot, data from a large study released by the companies has shown.
The companies in a release said the booster was tested on 10,000 participants aged 16 and older who had received two doses in its earlier trials. A booster administered about 11 months after the second shot had a favourable safety profile and worked against the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus, they said. The data has not been submitted for peer review.
Pfizer and BioNTech said they would submit detailed results of the trial for peer-reviewed publication to the US Federal Drug Administration, the European Medicines Agency and other regulatory agencies as soon as possible.
The COVID Response Alliance for Social Entrepreneurship is a coalition of 85 global leaders, hosted by the World Economic Forum. Its mission: Join hands in support of social entrepreneurs everywhere as vital first responders to the pandemic and as pioneers of a green, inclusive economic reality.
Its COVID Social Enterprise Action Agenda, outlines 25 concrete recommendations for key stakeholder groups, including funders and philanthropists, investors, government institutions, support organizations, and corporations. In January of 2021, its members launched its 2021 Roadmap through which its members will roll out an ambitious set of 21 action projects in 10 areas of work. Including corporate access and policy change in support of a social economy.
For more information see the Alliance website or its impact story here.
The move of social interaction and mixing indoors as the Northern Hemisphere winter sets in is driving a rise in COVID-19 infections in many countries across Europe, the Executive Director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Programme, Dr Mike Ryan, said yesterday.
"Most of those restrictions are now not in place anymore in many countries. And we're seeing that coincide with the winter period in which people are moving inside as the cold snaps appear," Ryan told a news briefing.
"The question remains as to whether or not we will have the same experience as last year with health systems coming once again under pressure."
Written by
Joe Myers, Writer, Formative Content
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.
The coronavirus that caused the pandemic can keep evolving as long as people are still getting infected, but that doesnt mean new variants will emerge as regularly or that theyll be more dangerous
By CHRISTINA LARSON AP Science Writer
October 21, 2021, 5:05 AM
3 min read
WASHINGTON -- Can new variants of the coronavirus keep emerging?
Yes, as long as the virus that caused the pandemic keeps infecting people. But that doesnt mean new variants will keep emerging as regularly, or that theyll be more dangerous.
With more than half the world still not vaccinated, the virus will likely keep finding people to infect and replicating inside them for several months or years to come. And each time a virus makes a copy of itself, a small mutation could occur. Those changes could help the virus survive, becoming new variants.
But that doesnt mean the virus will keep evolving in the same way since it emerged in late 2019.
When a virus infects a new species, it needs to adapt to the new host to spread more widely, says Andrew Read, a virus expert at Pennsylvania State University.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the delta variant is twice as contagious as earlier versions of the virus. And while it could still mutate to become more infectious, it probably wont double its transmission rate again, says Dr. Adam Lauring, a virus and infectious disease expert at the University of Michigan.
Weve seen a stage of rapid evolution for the virus. Its been harvesting the low-hanging fruit, but theres not an infinite number of things it can do, Lauring says.
Its possible that the virus could become more deadly, but there isnt an evolutionary reason for that to happen. Extremely sick people are also less likely to socialize and spread the virus to others.
Experts are watching to see whether emerging variants could be better at evading the protection people develop from vaccination and infections. As more people get the shots, the virus would have to be able to spread through people who have some immunity for it to survive, says Dr. Joshua Schiffer, a virus expert at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.
The virus could take on a mutation that makes the immune response less effective, he says.
If that happens, scientists may recommend that vaccine formulas be updated periodically, just as annual flu shots are.
The AP is answering your questions about the coronavirus in this series. Submit them at: FactCheck@AP.org. Read more here:
Is the delta variant of the coronavirus worse for kids?
Do the COVID-19 vaccines affect my chances of pregnancy?
Am I fully vaccinated without a COVID-19 vaccine booster?
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 have passed 242 million globally, according to Johns Hopkins University. The number of confirmed deaths stands at more than 4.92 million. More than 6.72 billion vaccination doses have been administered globally, according to Our World in Data.
New Zealand has reported a record daily rise in COVID19 cases for the second time in three days, with 102 new infections.
Britain's health minister Sajid Javid has resisted calls from doctors for a return of restrictions, a so-called 'Plan B', but warned that could change if more people did not take up the offer of vaccination. The country reported 223 new deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday, the highest daily figure since March, and cases are the highest in Europe.
It came as a descendant of the the Delta COVID-19 variant was being tested in the UK to assess the level of threat it poses. But it's not yet considered a variant of concern, according to the BBC.
Ukraine has also reported a record daily rise in new COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths, with 22,415 new cases and 546 deaths.
The United States has now donated more than 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to more than 100 countries, the White House announced.
Japan's Shionogi & Co Ltd has announced Phase II/III trials for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
France's lower house of parliament voted to approve the extension of COVID-19 health pass measures until at least 31 July, 2022. The pass shows the holder is vaccinated against COVID-19, or has recently tested negative.
The Pan American Health Organization has called on countries to grant entry to vaccinated travellers regardless of which shot they received, to prevent discrimination and facilitate business.
Poland plans to make COVID-19 vaccine booster doses available to all adults over the next few weeks, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, said.
The Czech Republic is set to introduce new restrictions, due to the rise in COVID-19 cases.
The US Food and Drug Administration has approved booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson. It also said Americans could choose a different shot from their original inoculation for their booster.
The World Health Organization has warned that the COVID-19 pandemic will go on longer than necessary because of vaccine inequity. It means it could 'easily drag deep into 2022'.
How COVID-19 cases are rising and falling a round the world.
Image: Our World in Data
India's immunization campaign has covered three-quarters of its 944 million adults with at least one dose, but only 31% with two. The government wants all adults to get vaccinated this year.
"India scripts history," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Twitter. "We are witnessing the triumph of Indian science, enterprise and collective spirit of (1.3 billion) Indians."
Nearly 90% of the vaccines administered in India have come from the Serum Institute of India (SII), which produces a licensed version of the AstraZeneca drug. SII has more than tripled its capacity since April and can now produce 220 million vaccine doses a month.
Each of our Top 50 social enterprise last mile responders and multi-stakeholder initiatives is working across four priority areas of need: Prevention and protection; COVID-19 treatment and relief; inclusive vaccine access; and securing livelihoods. The list was curated jointly with regional hosts Catalyst 2030s NASE and Aavishkaar Group. Their profiles can be found on www.wef.ch/lastmiletop50india.
Top Last Mile Partnership Initiatives to collaborate with:
People vaccinated against COVID-19 are highly unlikely to die of the disease unless very old and already badly ill before getting it, a study in Italy showed on Wednesday.
The study by the National Health Institute (ISS), contained in a regular ISS report on COVID-19 deaths, shows the average age of people who died despite being vaccinated was 85. On average they had five underlying illnesses.
The average age of death among those not vaccinated was 78, with four pre-existing conditions. Cases of heart problems, dementia and cancer were all found to be higher in the sample of deaths among those vaccinated.
The analysis, carried out from Feb. 1 to Oct. 5 this year, studied the medical records of 671 unvaccinated COVID fatalities and 171 fully vaccinated ones.
Written by
Joe Myers, Writer, Formative Content
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.
We're breaking down the trends and relaying information from across the state.
We're breaking down the trends and relaying information from across the state of Georgia as it comes in, bringing perspective to the data and context to the trends.
Visit the 11Alive coronavirus page for comprehensive coverage, find out what you need to know about Georgia specifically, learn more about the symptoms, and keep tabs on the cases around the world.
State and federal officials with the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are continually monitoring the spread of the virus. They are also working hand-in-hand with the World Health Organization to track the spread around the world and to stop it.
Chattahoochee 5102 14
Gwinnett 111294 1347
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This week in coronavirus: Tennessee finally falls below the 'red' line The Tennessean
ST. PAUL Minnesota has experienced four straight days of declining test-positivity rates and hospitalizations suggesting the states fourth surge of coronavirus infections is beginning to ebb.
But the rate of COVID-19 deaths continues to be high with 22 more fatalities reported Friday, Oct. 22. The latest deaths to be reported ranged in age from their late 30s to their late 90s.
Seven of those deaths resided in long-term care, 14 in private homes and one was unsheltered. The death toll is 8,537 with 4,725 fatalities in long-term care.
Another 124 deaths are suspected to have been caused by COVID-19 but the person never had a positive coronavirus test.
There are 915 patients hospitalized including 223 in critical condition, down from a yearly high of 1,007 hospitalized patients a week ago. Hospital capacity remains strained in much of the state because of staffing shortages.
The 2,150 new cases reported Friday was the result of more than 37,000 tests and the number of new infections is down by 36% from the same time a week ago.
Nearly all new cases are caused by the more contagious delta variant. Health officials say the best way to avoid a severe infection and to slow the spread of the coronavirus is to be vaccinated.
Minnesota has administered 6.7 million doses of vaccine and 3.4 million people have gotten at least one dose. About 73% of those who are vaccine eligible, aged 12 and older, have gotten at least one shot.
Roughly 62% of Minnesotas 5.8 million total residents have gotten at least one dose of vaccine.
COLUMBUS (WCMH) The Ohio Department of Healthhasreleasedthe latest number of COVID-19 casesin the state.
As of Thursday, Oct. 21, the state is reporting a total of 1,511,760 (+4,084) cases, leading to 78,249 (+275) total hospitalizations and 9,967(+46) ICU admissions. A total of 6,425,794 or 54.97% of the population has begun vaccination. Thats an increase of 5,685 since the last report.
The ODH reported 289 deaths Tuesday, bringing the total to 23,616. The state is updating the number only after death certificates have been processed, usually twice a week.
The 21-day case average is now just below 5,000.
Recently, ODH Director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff said the delta surge seems to have plateaued, but he urged continued vigilance.
Its far too early for us to claim victory, he said at Thursdays ODH press conference. We may not know the full impact of this surge for some time. What we do know is hospitals are feeling the real effects of the surge.
Dr. Vanderhoff said it takes approximately six weeks for the vaccinated to be fully protected after their last shot. This is important because Thanksgiving a potential superspreader holiday is only seven weeks away.
