by: Nancy R. Buchan University of South Carolina, AP The Conversation
(THE CONVERSATION) TheResearch Briefis a short take about interesting academic work.
The big idea
People who got COVID-19 or were directly affected by the disease, either by losing loved ones or having close friends or relatives become infected by the coronavirus, are more likely to give to a charity to support pandemic relief.
That was one of the main findings froman online studyweconductedin May 2020with932 adults living in the United States and replicated in June of that year with 723 adults who reside in Italy. Three other researchers worked on this experiment with us:Adriana C. Pinate,Giulia Ursoand Marilynn B. Brewer.
Our team told participants they would be paid US$3 to take a survey regarding their experiences and decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. Afterwards, we gave them a $5 bonus and asked if they wanted to donate some or all of the bonus money to charities supporting COVID-19 relief in their state or region, their own country or around the world. Italians got the equivalent in euros for the base payment and bonus. We told participants we would match any amount donated.
We found that people in the U.S. who were more directly affected by COVID-19 pandemic were 9% more likely to donate than others. They also donated 9.2% more money. The results were similar in Italy.
About 63% of the U.S. and 77% of the Italian participants gave away at least some of this unexpected money. Overall, people taking part in the study gave away 35% of their bonus and kept 65% for themselves. Nearly 20% gave away their entire bonus.
It also turned out that people in both countries were more likely to select a charity in their own state or region, rather than a national or global one. This reflects something prior research has found: People prefer to support their own communities when they make charitable donations,particularly during pandemics.
Interestingly, those who selected a global charity gave more money.
Our findings also suggest that having COVID-19 or seeing its toll up close through friends and loved ones makes the reality of the pandemic more certain and the need for charity more obvious.
Why it matters
U.S. charitable giving rose 3.8% to a record $471 billionin 2020. Andmost Americans found ways to express generosityduring the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether by donating, volunteering, going out of their way to keep local businesses afloat or other means.
That growth in support reflects acommon refrainduring theCOVID-19 pandemic: Were all in this together. We wanted to learn what that catch phrase actually means. That is, who do people mean by we? Whom do they want to help?
We also wanted tosee if that sentiment would affect altruism: the tendency to act selflessly to help others.
[Research into coronavirus and other news from scienceSubscribe to The Conversations new science newsletter.]
In meeting any global challenge, its worth considering evidence that people tend to be most interested in causes that directly affect their own interests or help their local communities even when crises are worldwide in nature.
We believe our findings may point to one reason why it has provenhard for governments to work togetherin the fight against COVID-19.
What other research is being done
Other scholars are also studying the degree to which people are expressing altruism in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Their findings suggest that older people in several countries seem to be more altruistic than others in response to the pandemic, but also that older people also aremore likely to give to charities closer to them. Additional research shows that people who experiencefeelings that they could die from COVID-19 are more altruistic.
Whats next
We also collected data about how political affiliation may affect charitable giving. We will relay those findings in another study.
The statement notes that the Pennsylvania Republican began experiencing "cold-like symptoms and was promptly tested for COVID-19" on Friday afternoon, and that he is vaccinated.
"He is in good spirits and further updates will be made available in the coming days," the statement on Thompson's Twitter said.
This story has been updated with additional details.
CNN's Shawna Mizelle contributed to this report.
Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.
Numbers continue to trend downwards as the Citywide 7-day average daily positivity rate dips to its lowest level since July 3.
In a breathless headline last month, the San Francisco Chronicle wrote: New population figures change what we thought we knew about COVID in San Francisco The article went on to report that San Franciscos Department of Public Health uses dated population figures when reporting on neighborhood case and vaccination rates. Probably the same applies to age groups. Does this change what we know about how covid is affecting SF? To some degree, but not all that much. Given the lack of adequate data collection and reporting systems, at best, the numbers Covid Tracker reports help provide a general picture of the local virus spread.
In addition, the numbers (provided to the public) are valuable for watching trends (such as last years testing debacle), and suggesting questions, but dont expect answers, and certainly not certainty.
The real problem is the lack of key indicators provided by DPH, especially hospitalization demographics. The fear of hospital overload has driven much of the covid policies, yet DPH provides no demographic data whatsoever on hospitalizations. Nor are we given the cumulative number of hospitalizations, so we never know the infection/hospitalization rate and if it has changed over time. Did The Vaccine provoke a decoupling of cases from hospitalizations? We can only guess. And it doesnt help that for over a month, DPH has temporarily paused reporting on vaccination status of those hospitalized.
Contact tracing is another black hole, inviting many to ask whether DPH actually does contact tracing.
Recently it has begun to appear that racial and ethnic minorities are more vulnerable to breakthrough infections. But this is data not reported, or apparently tracked, locally or nationally.
Probably the main argument for mass boosterism (pushed by Big Pharma) is data which shows a waning of the antibodies produced by The Vaccine. Some have argued that this concern has been overblown. Now some argue that waning antibodies are not only a natural and expected phenomenon, but may actually help, rather than hinder, long term immunity.
CalOHSA is debating whether or not to extend a mandate to pay those workers who get sick with covid or who must quarantine because of exposure. Why is this a debate? And will the agency enforce whatever it mandates?
Scroll down for todays covid numbers.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Oct. 20, DPH reports more than89 percent of all San Francisco residents over 12 have received one dose, and 83 percentare completely vaccinated. For those over 65, better than 90 percent are fully vaccinated. New vaccinations, though low, keep on truckin. On Oct. 20, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 196. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit ourVaccination Page.
On Oct. 16, DPH reports there were 50 covid hospitalizations,or about5.7 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). DPH has not reported breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths since Sept. 17. According to the CDC, there were 39 new admissions for the seven days ending Oct. 19 (-9.30 percent from the previous seven days). For the week ending Oct. 19, covid patients accounted for 2.58percentof hospital beds (no change from the previous week) and5.62 percentof ICU beds (-.92 percent from the previous week). As of Oct. 18, the CDC says that, of more than 189 million vaccinated U.S. residents, 41,127 patients with a covid vaccine breakthrough infection were hospitalized or died (though 26 percent were either aymptomatic or not covid related). Note: 85 percent of the deaths and 66 percent of the non-fatal hospitalizations were among those 65 and older.
The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 6 covid patients and 7 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 5 covid patients and 5 ICU beds available. Of 59 reported covid patients,30 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 76 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals. The California DPH says there are 80 ICU beds available in San Francisco. SFDPH wont say.
Between Aug. 18 and Oct. 17, DPH recorded 364 new cases in the Mission for a rate of 62 new cases per 10,000 residents. Over that period, DPH recorded 457 new cases in Bayview Hunters Point or 121 new cases per 10,000 residents. SOMA remains the only other neighborhood with new case rates above 100 per 10,000 residents and only 4 other neighborhoods (Chinatown, Treasure Island, Tenderloin and Western Addition) have rates over 80 per 10,000 residents.
On October 14, the 7-day average of daily new cases in the City was 53, or approximately 6.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). The 7-day average case rate among vaccinated residents was 5.2per 100,000 fully vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents 9.5 per unvaccinated 100,000 residents.
So far in October, White San Franciscans had 365 recorded infections, or 38.5 percent of October cases; Asians 230 or 24.3 percent, Latinxs 158 or 16.7 percent, Blacks 63 or 6.7 percent, Multi-racials 20 or 2.1 percent, Pacific Islanders 9 or 1 percent and Native Americans had 0 recorded infections or 0 percent of the months cases.
So far in October, Pacific Islanders have a 2.6 percent positivity rate, Latinxs 1.8 percent, Whites 1.6 percent, Blacks 1.6 percent, Multi-racials 1.5 percent, and Asians 1.3 percent. Note: Above, DPH reported 0 October cases among Native Americans. Here DPH reports 14 October cases among Native Americans with a positivity rate of 4.7 percent.
Covid-related deaths in San Francisco have always been among the most ambiguous numbers. Its even worse now as the City no longer provides a definition of what constitutes a covid (or covid-related) death. Four new deaths have been recorded in October bringing the Delta total so far (August October) to 74 and the cumulative covid-related death toll to 650. September and October numbers should be considered less reliable meaning updates are likely. For over a month, DPH has temporarily paused reporting the vaccination status of covid-related deaths.
Covid R Estimation lowered its San Francisco R Number to .90 and revised its estimate for the California R number up to .99. The ensemble raised its average for the San Francisco R number to 77 and its California R Number average to .87. No model in the ensemble currently estimates San Francisco transmissibility above .9.
So far in October, San Franciscans 0-4 years of age have recorded 26 new cases for 2.7 percent of new cases this month; 5-10: 61 new cases, 6.4 percent, 11-13: 20 new cases, 2.1 percent, 14-17: 17 new cases, 1.8 percent, 18-20:10 new cases, 1.1 percent, 21-24: 52 new cases, 5.5 percent, 24-29: 134 new cases 14.1 percent, 30-39: 229 new cases, 24.2 percent, 40-49: 123 new cases, 13 percent, 50-59: 127 new cases, 13.4 percent, 60-69: 86 new cases, 9.1 percent, 70-79: 44 new cases, 4.6 percent, 80 +: 18 new cases 1.9 percent.
AUSTIN (KXAN) Austin Public Health says it will monitor and track COVID-19 cases following the Formula 1 Aramco United States Grand Prix race weekend at Circuit of the Americas.
Austin health officials did the same after the two weekends of the Austin City Limits Music Festival. Earlier this week, APH said a total of 36 COVID-19 cases so far were linked to ACL.
With over 360,000 people expected to be at COTA over the three-day weekend, the track is operating at full capacity with some COVID-19 protocols. The race is a sell-out with an estimated 140,000 people around the track for Sundays race.
If youre planning to be at one of COTAs indoor facilities, the Tower Club, Club SI, Circuit Suite and the Chairmans Suite, proof of a negative COVID-19 test is required. The test must be from Wednesday at the earliest to receive a wristband.
Rapid and PCR tests will be accepted. Masks are recommended indoors.
The Austin-Travis County area hit the threshold for Stage 2 COVID-19 risk-based guidelines Friday. Though, the local health authority hasnt officially announced a move from Stage 3 down to Stage 2 after the 7-day moving average of hospital admissions fell within the threshold Friday.
The metric APH largely uses to determine which COVID-19 risk-based guidelines we fall under is the7-day moving average of new hospital admissions. The threshold for Stage 2 guidelines is anything under 15 and above 5. We hit 14 Friday. Anything below 5 would be in the threshold for Stage 1, the least restrictive tier.
LIHUE Friday, the state Department of Health Kauai District Health Office reported 17 new cases of COVID-19, which include 16 residents and one visitor. Of the 17 new cases, three are children and 14 are adults.
Seven of the cases are related to travel, including two mainland and five interisland. The remaining 10 cases are considered community-acquired. Five of the community-acquired infections are close contacts of a previously announced case or are tied to an active cluster. The remaining five cases have no known source of infection.
Cases have jumped up in the last two days. The increase is likely related to fall-break travel, Kauai District Health Officer Dr. Janet Berreman said in a press release.
If you traveled recently, please get tested. If you test positive or if youre feeling sick, please isolate at home to avoid spreading disease to others. And if you havent been vaccinated, please do so.
Fridays cases bring the number of active cases to 63, with two hospitalized. To date, the county has seen 2,596 cumulative cases.
There is a growing sense of optimism across the country, with national coronavirus infection rates steadily falling, booster shots available for many Americans and pending vaccine approval on the horizon for young children.
In southern states like Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana and Georgia, which were hit early on by the delta surge, hospitalizations are on the decline.
But despite the good news, experts are pleading with Americans to remain alert, as the highly infectious delta variant continues to circulate.
Despite vaccination rollouts, several states, particularly those in colder climates, are beginning to see a rise in infections.
"You're starting to see an uptick in cases in the colder parts of the country and as people are driven indoors without masks on," former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNN earlier this month. "The delta wave has not run through the United States... I think we have a couple of months to go."
Experts have been warning for weeks that colder areas may see an uptick in cases this winter.
"We may be starting to see the delta surge in the northern parts of the country that were relatively spared over the summer," said John Brownstein, Ph.D., an epidemiologist at Boston Children's Hospital and an ABC News contributor.
In recently released forecasts, the PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia reported that infection rates in parts of the Midwest and Mountain states remained "stubbornly high," and that despite declining transmission in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and in California, a period of resurgence may be on the horizon for northern regions of the country.
A healthcare worker administers a Covid-19 test at a testing site in Mifflin Square Park in Philadelphia, Aug. 12, 2021.
"We can take some comfort this week in the fact that national daily case counts have dropped below 100,000 and national adult and pediatric hospital censuses have declined by 50% since late summer," the group wrote, adding that the country must still be prepared to see a resurgence.
In the Midwest, many counties throughout Minnesota and Michigan have had a significant rise in cases, while other states (Delaware, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Wyoming) are reporting high transmission in nearly every county, according to federal data.
"Coronaviruses tend to thrive in winter months and colder weather," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said. "Right now is not the time, as cases are coming down to become complacent because we do know colder weather is ahead of us."
These local increases in cases are being accompanied by an uptick in hospitalizations. Ten states (Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wyoming) are already seeing a higher number of hospital admissions.
In Montana, forecasters noted that cities are experiencing the highest rates of case incidence and hospitalizations they have seen throughout the pandemic, mirroring what happened in Idaho last month. Similarly, in Utah, the outlook continues to worsen, specifically in the Salt Lake City region, as resurgence spreads to a wider geographic area.
According to the PolicyLab, the regional variation across the country makes predicting the trajectory of this period of the pandemic challenging. While the team wrote that the likelihood of a fall and winter resurgence in northern areas "seems more probable," there is "uncertainty about the magnitude, duration and breadth of geographic regions that will be impacted."
"We need to expect that, as we enter a season of shorter, colder days that will push more people to gather indoors, we will soon see a widening geographic distribution of resurgent transmission in many locations," forecasters wrote.
The group noted that the Northeast did not experience a significant surge last year, until the holiday season in November and December, and added that nationally, case incidence increased rapidly just after Halloween last year, surging through the New Year.
"As winter approaches, indoor mixing, especially among the remaining unvaccinated populations, means that we will likely continue to see increases in cases. The biggest remaining question is whether we have vaccinated enough of the population to see a decoupling with hospitalizations and deaths," added Brownstein.
People who have not been fully vaccinated are 6.1 times more likely to test positive with the virus and 11.3 times more likely to die from it, compared with people who are vaccinated, according to federal data.
Although nearly two-thirds of Americans have now received at least one shot of a COVID-19 vaccine, more than 112 million Americans remain completely unvaccinated. Approximately 64 million of those unvaccinated Americans are people over the age of 12, and thus, are currently eligible to get the shot.
PolicyLab experts say it is therefore critical for communities to act now in order to "maximize vaccinations among children and adults so that we can prevent local surges in all regions this winter and finally move toward the waning days of the pandemic."
Avoid this frustrating COVID-19 testing mistake while traveling in the UK
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LONDONThe U.K., in an experiment watched by the world, lifted most Covid-19 restrictions in the summer, wagering that immunity from vaccinations and prior infections would keep the virus at bay.
Three months later, the British experience shows that, in the face of the highly transmissible Delta variant of the coronavirus, herd immunity is elusive. Covid-19 cases and deaths have risen in recent weeks as winter has begun to close in. The bottom line: Reliance on immunity, which is imperfect to begin with and wanes over time, doesnt guarantee a quick victory over Delta.
After another brutal spike in coronavirus cases and deaths this summer fueled by the Delta variant infections are declining in the United States, down 50 percent from their peak in September.
Experts say what comes next is hard to predict, and we often do not know why the virus spreads the way it does. But looking back at the outbreak so far can provide some clues about how the virus may spread in the future.
Average cases per 100,000 people
Summer 2020
June August
Fall 2020
September November
Winter
December February
Spring 2021
March May
Summer and Fall 2021
June Oct. 20
Note: Most Nebraska counties did not report data during the summer of 2021.
The country has suffered through five waves of the pandemic now, depending on how you count. Each of these waves has a different complexity and pattern, said Alessandro Vespignani, the director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University in Boston.
During the first wave, for instance, strict stay-at-home measures and drastic changes in behavior may have stalled the virus for a time. Last fall, with those measures and behavior comparatively relaxed, record-breaking surges in the Midwest rippled outward to the South and both coasts. By the time the highly contagious Delta variant fueled a wave across the country this summer, vaccines were widely available, shifting the pattern once again.
Vaccines have clearly changed which places have been hit and how much theyve been hit, said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.
Below is a look at five times that the U.S. case curve hit a peak, and the lessons and insights experts have gleaned from each wave.
Outbreaks in
meatpacking facilities
Outbreaks in
meatpacking facilities
Outbreaks in
meatpacking facilities
In the spring of 2020, the first wave hit a few areas particularly hard, including New York City, New Orleans and Albany, Ga. A lot came down to random chance insofar as where the virus struck first, experts said, though population density and transportation hubs may have played a role.
Tests were hard to come by during this period, so cases were drastically underreported. But death data indicates the Northeasts outbreak was one of the worst of the whole pandemic one in about 400 New York City residents died within the span of two months.
Early stay-at-home orders and widespread, drastic behavioral changes flattened the curve in those outbreaks, however, preventing the coronavirus from rippling across the country in waves, the way it would in later surges.
While hospitals overflowed in the Northeast corridor, nearby areas like Maine did not see large outbreaks. Isolated hot spots broke out largely in places where people were unable to socially distance, like nursing homes, prisons and meatpacking plants.
I think its easy to miss how bad things could have gotten and how much better we did than we could have largely because of the lockdowns, said Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina.
Outbreaks on
Native American
reservations
Outbreaks on
Native American
reservations
Cases surged again in the summer of 2020, but this time Sun Belt states suffered the worst outbreaks. Many states that set new records for cases and deaths were also those that reopened first, including South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. Experts say seasonality perhaps the Sun Belts summer heat driving people indoors may also have been a factor.
The summer surge slammed many metropolitan areas of the South and Southwest, including Houston, Miami and Phoenix. Without tight virus restrictions in place, the virus spread outward into suburbs and exurbs. By the end of the summer, most of the worst outbreaks were occurring in rural areas.
If you think of the spring wave in 2020, it was more pointlike around urban areas. In the other waves, you see more of a general flow, Dr. Vespignani said, Like when you throw a stone in a pond.
The flow of cases is clearer in the surge that began in the Upper Midwest in September 2020. North and South Dakota had few virus restrictions in place to contain an outbreak, and both states had particularly bad spikes. One in 10 residents tested positive for the virus in the fall in North Dakota, and experts think many more cases went undetected.
From there, the outbreak expanded beyond the Midwest, reaching both coasts and stretching down to the South in a devastating wave. The country saw more daily cases and deaths in January than any other time before or since.
You do see this movement, almost like its moving from county to county, said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Columbia University, who said researchers found community-to-community transmission played an important role in virus spread during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. But Dr. Shaman said factors other than proximity could have also played an important role with Covid.
Disparate communities may have similar school opening dates, for instance, experience the same cold fronts, or share similar behavior patterns, all of which could lead to independent outbreaks at the same time.
When youre looking at anything after October of last year, the virus is everywhere. It didnt need to be reintroduced, Dr. Shaman said.
Then, in one community after another, cases fell often as quickly as they had risen. A sharp fall after a peak is not uncommon during epidemics, experts said. When a virus rapidly spreads through a community, it eventually runs out of people to infect.
By Spring 2021, U.S. cases had retreated far from their winter peak. At the same time, a more-contagious variant that had fueled an enormous surge in the United Kingdom, called Alpha, was quickly becoming dominant in the United States.
Michigan saw a large surge in cases and deaths, worrying experts that the variant would cause a similar nationwide outbreak. Instead, the virus seemed to stop at the Michigan border in May.
Epidemiologists still do not know why Michigan was unlucky or why the outbreak did not spread to neighboring states. But some noted that it took place right around when all adults first became eligible for the vaccine, and before social distancing behavior loosened significantly.
Its possible that people became more cautious during the resurgence, slowing the spread, said Dr. Lessler, the University of North Carolina epidemiologist. Then vaccines helped stamp it out.
Case and death records
broken across the South
Case and death records
broken across the South
In June, U.S. coronavirus cases were at a low point not seen since the beginning of the pandemic, and nearly half the population had received at least one shot. States lifted virtually all virus restrictions and people relaxed their behavior in celebration.
The timing proved disastrous, especially for areas with lower vaccination rates. Another variant, this time Delta, took hold and quickly grew to account for a majority of U.S. cases. Missouri saw the first big surge of the Delta wave.
Thats where the fire was ignited; then the fire started to spread to other places, Dr. Vespignani said.
Soon, that outbreak moved across Arkansas, then Louisiana, both states with low vaccination rates. Florida became another early Delta hot spot. By the end of August, most states in the South had hit new records for daily cases or deaths and the virus turned northward, causing surges in the upper Midwest and Mountain West.
While the Delta wave rolled across much of the country, some places were relatively spared.
That fire was never able to get, for instance, into the Northeast corridor, Dr. Vespignani said. Its where theres one of the highest vaccination rates. Its like theres a wall.
Some experts say that the vaccination campaign and much of the country having already experienced several waves of outbreaks which have conferred some immunity to those who were infected and recovered have made them cautiously optimistic for the winter.
Dr. Lessler, who helps run the Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of research groups that model the future of the outbreak, said none of the groups forecast a substantial winter peak in the United States this year.
We might see a little bump in cases, and of course people could radically change behavior or we could see a variant, Dr. Lessler said, but he added that he did not think a substantial peak was likely.
All the same, there are bound to remain places where the virus can spread, as each new wave has shown. And questions still remain about how long immunity will last.
The difference between the Michigan Alpha wave in Spring 2021 and the Delta wave is really telling you that the wall that youve built might work for one variant, but it might not be enough for the next one, Mr. Vespignani said. There might be another variant that is more transmissible and with more immune evasion. Thats why we need to build the wall as high as possible.
Illinois health officials on Friday reported 15,131 new COVID-19 cases in the past week, along with 183 additional deaths and over 209,651 new vaccine doses administered.
In all, 1,680,908 cases of coronavirus have been reported in the state since the pandemic began, according to the latest data from the Illinois Department of Public Health. The additional deaths reported this week bring the state to 25,590 confirmed COVID fatalities.
The state has administered 773,791 tests since last Friday, officials said, bringing the total to more than 34 million tests conducted during the pandemic.
The states seven-day positivity rate on all tests dropped to 2.2% from 2.5% last week, officials said. The rolling average seven-day positivity rate for cases as a percentage of total tests remained at 2% over the past week.
Over the past seven days, a total of 209,651doses of the coronavirus vaccine have been administered to Illinois residents. The latest figures brought the states average to 29,950 daily vaccination doses over the last week, per IDPH data.
More than 15.2 million vaccine doses have been administered in Illinois since vaccinations began in December. More than 54% of Illinois resident are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with more than 69% receiving at least one dose.
As of midnight Thursday, 1,277 patients were hospitalized due to COVID in the state. Of those patients, 323 are in ICU beds, and 152 are on ventilators.
