Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole today pledgedto increase Canada's vaccination rate beyond 90 per cent within two monthsas he unveiled the party'sstrategy to combat thefourth wave of COVID-19.
O'Toole's plan relies heavily on persuading more Canadians to get vaccinated through a public information campaign that will "appeal to Canadians' patriotism" and by providing incentives, such as paid time off work and free transportation to vaccineappointments.
It also promises a "booster shot strategy" to counter waning immunity, an expansion of rapid testing in workplaces and schools,and theaccelerated authorization of vaccinesfor children under the age of 12,who currently aren't eligible to receive a COVID-19vaccine.
In announcing the suite of pandemic policies at a campaign event in Coquitlam, B.C., O'Toole repeated his criticism of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's decision to call an election at the same time as thedelta variant drives a resurgence of cases and hospitalizations in some parts of the country.
"This shouldn't be the discussion we are having in the middle of an election, but it is, and we need to work together," O'Toole told reporters.
"I won't do what's convenient politically, but what is right."
WATCH:O'Toole says he wants Canada's vaccination rate up to 90 per cent
The Conservative leader has faced criticism from his political rivals in the past over hisunwillingness to support vaccine mandates for federal public servants and domestic travellers.
This plan doesn't include a vaccine mandate or passport, but it would require unvaccinated civil servants and domestictravellersboarding a bus, plane, train or boat to show recent negative COVID-19 test results or undergo rapid testing. It also promises to work with provinces to develop a national proof-of-vaccination system that could be used for international travel.
O'Toolesought to portray his approach to COVID-19 as fair, co-operativeand focused on understanding why some people have yet to get vaccinated, rather than demonizing them something he accused the Trudeau Liberals of doing in an attempt to score political points on the campaign trail.
"You don't win people over by threatening them. You win them over by reaching out, talking to them, understanding their fears, answering their questions," O'Toole said."We need to persuade every Canadian that vaccines are safe, effective and our best route out of this crisis."
Additional measures in the Conservative plan include:
Any attempt by O'Toole to promote the COVID-19 planwas overshadowed by abarrage of questions about the Conservative position on firearms, and what critics say is a lack of transparency in the language O'Toolehas used recently when speaking publiclyabout that policy.
O'Toole has generated confusionby pledging to maintain the ban on "assault weapons," but not "assault-style" weapons.
The "assault weapons" ban refers to a1977legislative change that classified fully automatic weapons as "prohibited" firearms but O'Toole wouldstill doaway with the Liberal prohibitionon 1,500 "assault-style" firearms models, such as the AR-15 and the Ruger Mini-14 rifle, among thosethe Liberal government blacklisted through an order-in-council last year.
WATCH:O'Toole defends his support for repeal of "assault-style" firearm ban
The Conservative election platform promises to scrap the May 2020 order-in-council that banned the wide variety of guns and review the Firearms Act with input from police, gun owners, manufacturers and the public.
But O'Toole seemed to backpedal on the pledge on both Thursday and Friday by saying the party would "maintain the ban on assault weapons" when pressed about his platform pledge.
A party spokespersonlater said in an emailed statement that O'Toole does promise to repeal the May 2020 order-in-council ban but not the prohibition of full-fledged "assault weapons" which are distinct from what the Liberals call "assault-style" weapons. That ban has been in place since 1977.
Reporters repeatedly pressed O'Toole on the matter during the campaign stop in Coquitlam, B.C., repeatedly asking whether he would repeal the ban on specific weapons used in mass shootings in recent years.
"We will maintain a ban on assault weapons and we will also have it's in our policy a transparent and public review of our classification system," O'Toole said, accusing the Liberals of divisive tactics.
"We will have that review, focusing on public safety and getting guns out of the hands of criminals that are being smuggled in from the United States."
Liberal candidate Bill Blair, a former Toronto police chief, unloaded on O'Toole's response,accusing himof "pretending that he had not made a commitment" to maintain the Liberal ban, as well as of being beholden to the gun lobby.
"I think, overwhelmingly, Canadians recognize that there is no place for these guns in our country," Blairsaid at a news conference in Toronto. "Mr. O'Toole is having difficulty admitting to Canadians that he's made that unholy pact with the gun lobby. He needs to be held to account."
We are delighted that you'd like to resume your subscription.
You will be charged $ + tax (if applicable) for The Wall Street Journal. You may change your billing preferences at any time in the Customer Center or call Customer Service. You will be notified in advance of any changes in rate or terms. You may cancel your subscription at anytime by calling Customer Service.
Please click confirm to resume now.
When the novel coronavirus burst into the world, and 2020 was still young and full of hope, many imagined the pandemic would last for just a few weeks of "lockdown." Later it became: Okay, just one more year of this.
Then the vaccines came out, and even health experts were finally starting to talk about population-levelimmunity, relaxing restrictions and living it up like it was 19. Cases were dropping, at least in the United States, and it looked like the end times might soon be at an end.
For the first time, even as we were loosening restrictions, and the Red Sox came back and etc., cases continued to drop. I was like, This is categorically new epidemiology. This is vaccine, says Dr. Benjamin Linas, an epidemiologist at Boston University. We had that moment of hope that perhaps we could generate complete herd immunity. I had adjusted to the idea of like, This is awesome.
Turns out things are not awesome. With the surge of delta variant infections around the world and the revelation that the strain can cause fully vaccinated people to experience infections and transmit the virus, Linas and other health scientists say its time to recalibrate our expectations once again. The coronavirus might very well be around forever, and Linas says its high time we accept that.
I dont think were ever going to eradicate or even eliminate SARS-CoV-2 [or the novel coronavirus], Linas says.
That leaves public health at a crossroads. If COVID-19 cases cannot be eliminated, and the window for herd immunity has passed, then health officials need new goalposts. Linas says that so far, they haven't been well defined.
"Im not sure that I can do the winter the way I did last winter. I think its actually starting to tear apart the fabric of our society.
If the goal is to stop transmission, then everyone should follow 2020-style COVID restrictions, since delta can spread among vaccinated people as well as unvaccinated people. Linas says thatmay have the benefit of preventing new, even more dangerous variants from arising, but it also comes with costs.
The deprivation of regular social interactions, time with family, travel and other activities has already taken a toll over the last year and then some. Linas says some restrictions like public indoor mask mandates are needed for now, but the idea of carrying them on in private is depressing.
I dont know how you feel, but I dont think I can do it again this year. Im not sure that I can do the winter the way I did last winter, Linas says. I think its actually starting to tear apart the fabric of our society.
There is another option, Linas says. Vaccinated people could stop trying so hard to avoid coronavirus exposure at all costs. Its becoming increasingly clear that even with the delta variant, vaccinated individuals are much less likely to become ill, end up in an intensive care unit or die. According to data from North Carolina public health officials, vaccinated individuals are four times less likely to get COVID-19, and 15 times less likely to die of it.
We might need to distinguish the difference between COVID-19, the disease, and SARS-CoV-2, the virus," he says. "With the vaccine, it might be possible to eliminate COVID-19 disease even if we cant stop all the transmission.
That will take a serious mental adjustment. Linus says accepting more coronavirus risk, even as a fully vaccinated person, still feels like blasphemy. But if the consequences of getting COVID-19 are much less severe for vaccinated people, then it may be time to start getting more comfortable with a little more risk.
This might become easier in a future when the coronavirus is still present, but its largely lost its teeth. At some point, every adult will have either gotten a COVID vaccine or survived the disease so that most future infections result in only mild illness, says Dr. Shira Doron, a hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center. Then, she thinks, COVID will slowly fade into the background and be one of those viruses that just circulate.
"People will mostly get mild COVID and wont think about it too much.
If you think down the road, and I dont know how long from now this is, every adult [will] have some immunity to COVID," she says. "People will mostly get mild COVID and wont think about it too much.
In rare cases, people will still get severe COVID and end up in the hospital, Doron says, but this was already happening with other viruses such as the common cold.
Here's a possible wrinkle: The pandemic may have changed our attitudes about disease transmission, Doron says. Just because we were fine with the flu, RSV and common colds dancing about each winter, that doesn't mean we should have been.
With the coronavirus in the seasonal mix, Doron says it's possible we're in for a perpetual pandemic, one that resumes each winter even if the virus ceases to be a fatal risk for most people.
Doron says well reach a new stage in the pandemic when case numbers are no longer coupled with rising hospitalizations and deaths. Were definitely not at a point where restrictions can go away just yet, Doron says.
The best way to get there is by vaccinating everyone who currently lacks immunity to the coronavirus. In that way, the short-term goal hasnt changed, says Dr. Sabrina Assoumou, an infectious disease physician at Boston Medical Center.
Remember, we dont vaccinate for the common cold, she says. The goal is to prevent severe disease, hospitalization and death. And right now, were very fortunate that in the U.S. we have vaccines that provide a high level of protection.
Its also possible we might never see a future where COVID-19 fades slowly away. Spikes continue to happen and, Doron adds, delta pulled the rug out from under us. If vaccination doesnt happen quickly enough, its still possible a new variant might emerge that causes more disease.
No one has any idea how to predict what the future looks like in waves of illness, she says. "So we just don't know."
Oregons COVID-19 hospitalizations could peak over the course of next week and possibly, begin to decline, according to a new model out of Oregon Health and Sciences University. But that will only happen if Oregonians continue to wear masks and take precautions.
But while hospitalizations might be peaking, that means theyre higher than ever before. In a press release on Friday, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown asked Oregonians to avoid risky activities over Labor Day weekend to keep hospital emergency departments empty.
While COVID-19 cannot be curedwhen people are hospitalized personnel are working to buy time for the patients body to heal. Every bed on this intensive care unit at Oregon Health and Science University is filled with a patient critically ill with COVID-19 in Portland, Ore., Aug. 19, 2021.
Kristyna Wentz-Graff / OPB
Oregonians fought previous surges by wearing masks and abiding by strict social distancing measures. This time around, the masking is helping to flatten the curve -- but another big reason is that there arent as many people left for the virus to infect.
This is the exact place that we were trying to avoid, with 1,200 hospitalizations, and nearly all hospital systems feeling overwhelmed or having to postpone or cancel other types of care. This is what we were trying to avoid. We are in that crisis, said Dr. Peter Graven, lead data scientist at OHSU.
Oregons hospitals are full and have been for several weeks. That isnt going to change any time soon.
Right now, were at a flattening point where, you know, frankly, its probably going to bounce around a little bit. Well probably see some up and down yet before it really starts going down, Graven said, Is it slowing down? Yes, but its far from better. I think we have two months of pain to go through before this is manageable again.
Any progress the state has made combatting the delta variant of the coronavirus is fragile. There are still a lot of people in Oregon who dont have immunity. Graven said that Oregonians have been wearing masks, and have been avoiding large crowds and indoor dining at bars and restaurants, and thats really helped flatten new infections. But he expects to see an increase in transmission tied to peoples socializing this Labor Day weekend. And as fall comes people will be spending more time inside, which could change transmission rates, too.
Its not like were past anything. Vigilance is obviously key, every bit of transmission we prevent now clears out the hospital a little quicker. And it doesnt matter if [cases are] going up or going down, it still prevents the transmission, Graven said.
And then, of course, there are kids: thousands of children under 12, who have not yet received a COVID-19 vaccine, are returning to school.
In the spring, few outbreaks were linked to in-person learning. But now cases are much higher, and that means theres a bigger chance of outbreaks in school. And the delta variant wasnt a factor in the spring of 2021: now its a game-changer.
I think [schools] that are taking all of the precautions can feel pretty good about that. But its something we need to monitor and maybe make changes as we go, Graven said.
As schools have opened around the country, some states have seen a spike in cases in children. Others havent. Its still not clear if the delta variant of the coronavirus is more dangerous to children.
Still, the St. Charles Health System in Bend and Redmond is currently doubling the size of its pediatric intensive care unit.
Just in case, said Dr. Doug Merrill, chief medical officer at St. Charles.
The modeling Gravens has done focuses on the state of Oregon as a whole. And thats important because when so many people are sick, hospitals rely on each other to transfer patients and find available beds.
But the models predictions are an average taken across the state. Cases will continue to go up in some places and down in others, Graven said.
Hospital region 7, which includes Bend, Redmond, and several counties to the south and east, is one area where cases could keep going up.
Our folks are estimating a peak 11 days later, with September 17 being our projected peak, St. Charles Merrill said.
Three weeks ago, about 50 people with COVID-19 were hospitalized in the St. Charles system, and the patients were already waiting sometimes for days to be admitted from the emergency room to the hospital. Today, there are over 80 people hospitalized, down from over 90 a few days ago.
Most of the people who left the ICU did so in body bags.
Merrill said their modeling expects the health system to peak locally with about 120 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 at a time.
Were at 220, 225 adults hospitalized right now. And normally that number is in the 180s when we are full, Merrill said.
Despite the record-high numbers, things arent quite as dire as Merrill had worried they would be previously, but thats because traveling nurses and doctors have arrived from other states to help, and the Oregon National Guard was deployed to the regions hospitals to help manage the surge of cases, too.
We are loving the guards folk who are with us, and were so grateful for the staff weve gotten from the state and through our own contracts, Merrill said.
Staff is still working overtime and extra shifts, and many COVID-19 patients are currently placed two-per-room.
Its just such a stressful environment. It would be wonderful if we could say, you know, hang in there for another couple of weeks and things are going to get better, Merrill said. And the fact that we cant say that just adds to the stress.
Although the Portland metro area has been less hard-hit than other parts of the state, due in part to high vaccination rates, the metro area hospital system is also overwhelmed. Both Providence Portland Medical Center and Providence St. Vincent Medical Center ordered fatality management trucks: temporary morgues.
We still see our COVID-19 numbers increasing. And we want to be ready for that, Rosa Cone, the director of nursing at Providence St. Vincent said.
Hospital morgues usually have room for fewer than 10 deceased people at a time. But the delta variant is killing people so fast, the morgues cant keep up.
Its so difficult for the staff, it really takes a toll on them emotionally and physically, especially because these patients are much sicker than our first or second surge of COVID-19, said Amanda Hanley, the nurse manager of Medical Unit B at Providence St. Vincent. The number of people needing supportive respiratory care has about doubled, and the hospital filled up much faster than in previous surges.
Medical Unit B has been turned entirely into a COVID-19 ward. Its the first place many COVID-19 patients go when they are admitted to the hospital.
Abigail McDonald, a charge nurse in Medical Unit B, said the last few weeks have been incredibly difficult.
Our patients arent as sick as they are when they go to the ICU. You build relationships and know them from the beginning, to when you see them enter intensive care, and know they might not come back, McDonald said.
Health care workers at multiple hospitals told OPB that pre-pandemic when patients entered the ICU, there was a good chance they would be discharged. There was reason to be optimistic. Thats not the case now, they say.
We do normally care for some patients at the end of life, but its much different when the patient has lived a full life, and its something theyve expected and planned for, McDonald said. Now shes transferring patients in their 30s to critical care. These are people who never thought theyd be in this position, who havent made decisions about resuscitation or end-of-life care.
Now, McDonald and Hanley sometimes hear the last conversations patients will ever have with their family: conversations had over the phone or over Zoom, without anyone they knew before the hospital nearby.
This surge has hit health care workers particularly hard. Some of it is that many cases are preventable: people who would not have needed to be hospitalized if they had received the COVID-19 vaccine.
But more than that, they say, its the ebb and flow of hope thats getting to them. Even if cases and hospitalizations and deaths start to decline, its hard to feel optimistic.
Weve seen the light at the end of the tunnel so many times throughout the pandemic. And then to come to a surge like the one were facing now, its a roller coaster of emotions, Cone said. It makes me hold my breath at the light.
Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.
At least 45 small school districts across Texas have been forced to temporarily stop offering in-person classes as a result of COVID-19 cases in the first few weeks of the new school year, according to the Texas Education Agency.
The shutdowns, which affected about 42,000 students as of Thursday, come as cases caused by the highly contagious delta variant have plagued administrators who hoped for a normal return to the school year.
Caseloads have left districts scrambling when many have said they have fewer tools at their disposal to combat the spread of the virus and have had to come up with their own strategies that can differ from district to district. Administrators are tasked with protecting students and staff members health, providing a quality education and staying open enough days to avoid tacking on extra days at the end of the school year.
By far this is worse in terms of planning than last year, said Tim Savoy, spokesperson for Hays Consolidated Independent School District, which closed some classrooms. Theres no question about it. Last year we had a lot of tools at our disposal: We could require masks, and we could provide a virtual option that was funded. [Then], the delta variant really kind of appeared and just exploded on us.
State data about the number of coronavirus cases in districts that have closed at least once during the school year thus far is incomplete 19 have not reported any cases in students or staff to the state, while case totals in 22 districts have been suppressed by the state due to privacy policies. The list of public school closures in Texas is also incomplete, according to TEA. The agency is tracking closures informally based on media and district reports since districts are not required to report closures to TEA, said Frank Ward, an agency spokesperson.
From Aug. 23-29, there were 27,353 new positive COVID-19 cases among students in Texas public schools, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services, making it the biggest one-week increase in the entire pandemic. The state reports 51,904 cases among students and 13,026 among staff since the school year began. Thats about 1% of the 5.3 million students enrolled in the state as of January.
Childrens hospitals, which have been inundated with COVID-19 patients at levels never seen before during the pandemic, have also seen an uptick in patients as the school year is underway, said Dr. Corwin Warmink, medical director of emergency services for Cook Childrens Health Care System in Fort Worth.
Every year when school starts, we expect a bump in volume [in our emergency room] we planned for it, we scheduled for it, Warmink said at a news conference Wednesday. In the regular year well see about 300 kids a day during this time. On Monday, we saw 601, an all-time record. ... At 600, were physically unable to care for kids in a timely fashion.
Districts handle closures as a result of COVID-19 differently: Smaller ones tend to temporarily close all campuses, and larger ones close classrooms, grade levels and individual schools.
Each week that the kids have been back, weve just seen those numbers increase dramatically, and that has been very stressful and very concerning to me, said Phil Edwards, superintendent of Angleton ISD, which has almost 7,000 students.
On Tuesday, Angleton announced it would close its campuses through next Tuesday, while still allowing extracurricular activities to proceed, and it is not requiring students to work remotely. Angleton ISD reported that as of Thursday, the district has more than 200 positive COVID-19 cases among students, employees and staff thus far this school year.
There are a number of factors at play that led to the district closing, Edwards said, such as staffing levels and the number of students who have quarantined due to COVID-19 exposure.
In Hays Consolidated ISD, 10% of the students in a group such as a class, grade level or school testing positive within one week triggers remote conferencing, a state-sanctioned form of temporary remote learning, for up to 10 days, Savoy said. Recently, five classrooms within the district closed down.
Under remote conferencing, schools are still able to count attendance, which the state uses to determine district funding. But the program isnt the same as a full-time virtual option, Savoy said. Senate Bill 15, which is headed to Gov. Greg Abbotts desk, would fund virtual learning until September 2023 and give school districts the option to set up their own virtual programs. However, the legislation comes with a slew of caveats which could exclude many students of color.
Another tool districts relied on last year the ability to require students to wear masks is caught in back-and-forth legal battles after Abbott issued an order banning mask mandates in schools.
Last school year, people had accepted that we were in a pandemic situation, and it was stressful, but everybody had the patience and understanding of the seriousness of it, Savoy said. This year, because we were coming out of the pandemic and then it suddenly came back on us, people are tired and theyre frustrated, and rightfully so, theyre exhausted. And so people are more upset this year about the provisions that we are or are not implementing.
Despite receiving a recommendation from its local health authority to close all of its campuses, Leander ISD decided to stick with a group-centered approach in how it handles COVID-19 clusters. As of Friday, the district had more than 900 COVID-19 cases among students and staff and has moved about 20 elementary school classes and sixth graders at three schools to remote conferencing, said Corey Ryan, a district spokesperson. Ryan said that at the moment, it seems like the best option, as some schools in the district have seen very few or no cases, many students rely on services and protection at school that they cant access at home, and the district has staffing shortages.
Its honestly a really tough balancing act for schools to do, Ryan said about deciding whether or not to shut down an entire district.
Teachers dying due to complications from COVID-19 is also a sobering reality for some districts. In Connally ISD, two teachers died in late August from COVID-19 within less than a week of each other. The deaths and an upswing in COVID-19 cases on campuses prompted the district to shut down all its campuses, said Jill Bottelberghe, the districts assistant superintendent of human resources.
We are seeing people who have just one symptom and who are coming up positive, and it can be as simple as a runny nose, and then we have even had some who have been asymptomatic, and they come up positive but yet they have the ability to spread it to people who it may very much impact, Bottelberghe said.
The district is planning to resume classes Tuesday. Bottelberghe said the district is consulting with the local district attorney to see what the repercussions would be if it were to require masks and go against Abbotts order.
Every day it seems like theres something new and a new challenge to overcome, Bottelberghe said.
Join us Sept. 20-25 at the 2021 Texas Tribune Festival. Tickets are on sale now for this multi-day celebration of big, bold ideas about politics, public policy and the days news, curated by The Texas Tribunes award-winning journalists. Learn more.
Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.
With at least 13,790 COVID-19 patients, most of them unvaccinated, hospitalized in Texas on Thursday, the state marked a week hovering at just below the record set in January for hospitalizations during the pandemic, according to numbers released by the Texas Department of State Health Services.
The states previous pandemic peak of 14,218 hospitalized COVID-19 patients was reported Jan. 11 during the deadliest wave of infections the state had seen since the virus was first reported in Texas in March 2020.
During the current summer surge, the largest number of COVID-19 patients in Texas hospitals has been 13,932 on Aug. 25. But with just a couple hundred fewer patients statewide than the record and a much more exhausted and depleted workforce than they had over the winter hospitals have been operating at or above capacity for weeks.
The surge has put unprecedented pressure on the states health care system as the delta variant spreads largely uncontrolled at a rate up to eight times faster than previous versions of the virus. Medical professionals say the situation could have been prevented with wider acceptance of the vaccine.
In recent weeks, the state has already seen a record number of hospitals reporting that they had run out of staffed ICU beds available for new patients. Particular pressure is being felt by large metropolitan systems that have put elective surgeries on hold and report having to turn away ambulances due to overflowing emergency and intensive care departments.
Much of the problem, hospital officials say, is a severe shortage of nurses and other staff to take care of patients after large numbers of health workers quit or retired due to COVID-related during the pandemic. Health care workers who remain are expensive and in high demand.
During the winter surge, state health and emergency management leaders sent tens of thousands of relief nurses from across the state and nation to relieve the pressure on overwhelmed hospitals.
After vaccinations were made widely available in the spring and hospitalizations dropped, the state-supported nurse program ended in May. But vaccinations began to slow around that time as well, when just about a quarter of Texans had gotten injections.
That opened the door for the delta variant to spread more quickly starting around June; hospitalizations started surging later that month.
Experts say the best way to flatten the curve is to ramp up social distancing, mask-wearing and hand-washing, proven methods for stopping COVID-19's spread, while the state works to get more of Texas 29 million residents vaccinated.
But Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has stood fast against any state or local mandates that proponents say would push Texas toward more vaccinations and slower community spread.
A strong opponent of lockdowns in the wake of widespread Republican criticism of his pandemic-era rules last summer, Abbott dropped statewide business capacity restrictions and mask mandates in March.
Through a series of executive orders and legislation, Abbott and Texas lawmakers also banned Texas businesses from requiring customers to show proof of vaccination, local governments and school districts from requiring masks and public sector employers from requiring their workers to be vaccinated.
Those bans remain in legal limbo as they move through the courts.
Last week, Abbott issued an executive order saying that his bans would remain in place even after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration gave Pfizer's vaccine full approval for people ages 16 and up on Monday. Abbott's previous orders had applied only to vaccines that had only emergency use authorization.
Meanwhile, most Texas school districts have started classes almost entirely in person, many with mask requirements in place in defiance of Abbotts stance against them, in an effort to stop the quickening spread of the delta variant among Texas children.
Just under 48% of Texans have been fully vaccinated, which experts say protects them from serious illness, hospitalization and death.
Those who arent vaccinated constitute upward of 90% of the hospitalized patients, officials report. Cities, counties, universities and private companies are offering incentives for vaccinations, and the state has reported a small upswing in the number of daily shots being given in recent weeks.
But while that number begins to climb from its low point late July, officials are seeking to solve the hospital staffing problem.
So far, the state has paid to hire more than 8,000 contract health care workers for Texas hospitals that are under the most pressure, many of which have already seen admission rates close to or higher than they were seeing in January when they had more staff to take care of those patients.
The state-funded relief nurses have been arriving at hospitals for the last few weeks. Meanwhile, some counties are considering using or have already agreed to tap federal stimulus money to add more workers to further handle the crush of patients.
More Texas doctors are also turning to monoclonal antibody therapies for COVID-19 patients who qualify, saying that the treatment gives them a better chance of staying out of the hospital and could lower statewide hospitalization rates until more people become vaccinated.
Mandi Cai contributed to this report.
Join us Sept. 20-25 at the 2021 Texas Tribune Festival. Tickets are on sale now for this multi-day celebration of big, bold ideas about politics, public policy and the days news, curated by The Texas Tribunes award-winning journalists. Learn more.
That meant, second, that the interventions were double-edged. Propping up the Treasury market enabled government spending on furlough schemes and paycheck protection plans to be funded in the normal way, by borrowing. But government IOUs are fuel for private speculation. When liquidity is flushed indiscriminately into the financial system, it inflates bubbles, generating new risks and outsize gains for those with substantial portfolios. Nowhere was this polarizing effect more pronounced than in the United States. While tens of millions struggled through the crisis, trillions of dollars piled up in the balance sheets of the wealthy.
Finally, the digital money creation was the easy bit. Keyness bon mot has a sting in its tail: We can afford anything we can actually do. The problem is agreeing on what to do and how to do it. In giving us a glimpse of financial freedom, 2020 also robbed us of pretenses and excuses. If we are not doing a global vaccine plan, it is not for lack of funds. It is because indifference, or selfish calculation vaccinate America first or real technical obstacles prevent us from actually doing it.
It turns out that budget constraints, in all their artificiality, had spared us from facing the all-too-limited willingness and capacity for collective action. Now if you hear someone arguing that we cannot afford to bring billions of people out of poverty or we cannot afford to transition the energy system away from fossil fuels, we know how to respond: Either you are invoking technological obstacles, in which case we need a suitably scaled, Warp Speed-style program to overcome them, or it is simply a matter of priorities. There are other things you would rather do.
The challenges wont go away, and they wont get smaller. The coronavirus was a shock, but a pandemic was long predicted. There is every reason to think that this one will not be a one-off. Whether the disease originated in zoonotic mutation or in a lab, there is more and worse where it came from. And it is not just viruses that we have to worry about, but also the mounting destabilization of the climate, collapsing biodiversity, large-scale desertification and pollution across the globe.
Looking back before 2020, it seemed that 2008 was the beginning of a new era of successive and interconnected disruptions, such as the global financial crisis, Mr. Trumps election, and the trade and tech war with China. It all had a familiar ring to it. Great-power competition, nationalism and banking crises all harked back to the 19th and 20th centuries. Then came 2020. It has given us a glimpse of something radically new: the old tensions of politics, finance and geopolitics intersecting with a natural shock on a global scale.
The Biden administration declares that America is back. But to what is it returning? As recent events in Afghanistan demonstrate, President Biden is determined to clear the decks, brutally if necessary. As far as the Pentagon is concerned, at the top of the agenda is great-power competition with China a 19th century writ large. But what of the interconnected global crises of the 21st century that cannot be attributed to a national antagonist? For those, the one model that we have is central bank financial market intervention a form of crisis-fighting based on technical networks, rooted in existing hierarchies of power and backed by powerful self-interest. It is conservative, ad hoc and lacking in explicit political legitimacy. It tends to reinforce existing hierarchy and privilege.
The challenge for a progressive globalism fit for the next decades is both to multiply those crisis-fighting networks into the fields of medical research and vaccine development, renewable energy and so on and to make them more democratic, transparent and egalitarian.
Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) is an economic historian at Columbia and the author of the forthcoming Shutdown: How Covid Shook the Worlds Economy, from which this essay is adapted. He writes the Chartbook newsletter.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
Many people are seeking definitive answers about what they can and cant do after being vaccinated against Covid-19. Is it OK to travel? Should I go to a big wedding? Does the Delta variant make spending time with my vaccinated grandmother more risky?
But theres no one-size-fits-all answer to those questions because risk changes from one individual to the next, depending on a persons overall health, where they live and those they spend time with. The bottom line is that vaccines are highly protective against serious illness, and, with some precautions, will allow people to return to more normal lives, experts say. A recent study in Los Angeles County showed that while breakthrough infections can happen, the unvaccinated are 29 times as likely to end up hospitalized from Covid-19 as a vaccinated person.
Experts say anxiety about breakthrough infections remains pervasive, fueled in part by frightening headlines and unrealistic expectations about the role of vaccines.
Theres been a lot of miscommunication about what the risks really are to vaccinated people, and how vaccinated people should be thinking about their lives, said Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. There are people who think we are back to square one, but we are in a much, much better place.
While the Delta variant is causing a surge in infections in various hot spots around the country, including Florida and Louisiana, there will eventually be an end to the pandemic. Getting there will require ongoing precautions in the coming months, but vaccinated people will have more freedom to enjoy life than they did during the early lockdowns. Here are answers to some common questions about the road ahead.
To understand why there is no simple answer to this question, think about another common risk: driving in a snowstorm. While we know that tens of thousands of people are injured or killed each year on icy roads, your individual risk depends on local conditions, the speed at which you travel, whether youre wearing a seatbelt, the safety features on your car and whether you encounter a reckless driver on the road.
Your individual risk for Covid after vaccination also depends on local conditions, your overall health, the precautions you take and how often you are exposed to unvaccinated people who could be infected.
People want to be told what to do is it safe if I do this? said Dr. Sharon Balter, director of the division of communicable disease control and prevention at the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. What we can say is, These are the things that are more risky, and these are the things that are less risky.
Dr. Balters team has recently collected surveillance data that give us a clearer picture of the difference in risk to the vaccinated and unvaccinated as the Delta variant surged from May 1 through July 25. They studied infections in 10,895 fully vaccinated people and 30,801 unvaccinated people. The data showed that:
The rate of infection in unvaccinated people is five times the rate of infection in vaccinated people. By the end of the study period, the age-adjusted incidence of Covid-19 among unvaccinated persons was 315.1 per 100,000 people over a seven-day period compared to 63.8 per 100,000 incidence rate among fully vaccinated people. (Age adjustment is a statistical method used so the data are representative of the general population.)
The rate of hospitalization among the vaccinated was 1 per 100,000 people. The age-adjusted hospitalization rate in unvaccinated persons was 29.4 per 100,000.
Older vaccinated people were most vulnerable to serious illness after a breakthrough infection. The median age of vaccinated people who were hospitalized for Covid was 64 years. Among unvaccinated people who were hospitalized, the median age was 49.
The Delta variant appears to have increased the risk of breakthrough infections to vaccinated people. At the start of the study, before Delta was dominant, unvaccinated people became infected 10 times as often as vaccinated people did. By the end of study period, when Delta accounted for almost 90 percent of infections, unvaccinated people were five times as likely to get infected as vaccinated people.
While unvaccinated people are by far at highest risk for catching and spreading Covid-19, its also possible for a vaccinated person to become infected and transmit the illness to others. A recent outbreak in Provincetown, Mass., where thousands of people gathered in bars and restaurants, showed that vaccinated people can sometimes spread the virus.
Even so, many experts believe the risk of getting infected from a vaccinated person is still relatively low. Dr. Jha noted that after an outbreak among vaccinated and unvaccinated workers at the Singapore airport, tracking studies suggested that most of the spread by vaccinated people happened when they had symptoms.
When weve seen outbreaks, like those among the Yankees earlier in the year and other cases, almost always people are symptomatic when theyre spreading, Dr. Jha said. The asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic spread could happen, but we havent seen it among vaccinated people with any frequency.
Another study from Singapore looked at vaccinated and unvaccinated people infected with the Delta variant. The researchers found that while viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated workers are similar at the onset of illness, the amount of virus declines more rapidly in the vaccinated after the first week, suggesting vaccinated people are infectious for a shorter period of time.
In many cases it will be safe, but the answer depends on a number of variables. The risk is lower with a few close family members and friends than a large group of people you dont know. Outdoor gatherings are safer than indoor gatherings. Whats the community transmission rate? Whats the ventilation in the room? Do you have underlying health issues that would make you vulnerable to complications from Covid-19? Do any of the vaccinated people have a fever, sniffles or a cough?
Sept. 4, 2021, 4:11 p.m. ET
The big question is can five people sit around a table unmasked if we know theyre all vaccinated, Dr. Jha said. I think the answer is yes. The chances of anybody spreading the virus in that context is exceedingly low. And if someone does spread the virus, the other people are not going to get super sick from it. I certainly think most of us should not fear breakthrough infections to the point where we wont tolerate doing things we really value in life.
For larger gatherings or even small gatherings with a highly vulnerable person, rapid antigen testing using home testing kits can lower risk. Asking people to use a test a few days before the event, and then the day of the event, adds another layer of protection. Opening windows and doors or adding a HEPA air cleaner can also help.
Children under 12 probably will not be eligible for vaccination until the end of the year. As a result, the best way to protect them is to make sure all the adults and older kids around them are vaccinated. A recent report from the C.D.C. found that an unvaccinated elementary schoolteacher who didnt wear a mask spread the virus to half of the students in a classroom.
Studies show that schools have not been a major cause of Covid-spreading events, particularly when a number of prevention measures are in place. A combination of precautions masking indoors, keeping students at least three feet apart in classrooms, keeping students in separate cohorts or pods, encouraging hand washing and regular testing, and quarantining have been effective. While many of those studies occurred before the Delta variant became dominant, they also happened when most teachers, staff and parents were unvaccinated, so public health experts are hopeful that the same precautions will work well this fall.
Dr. Balter noted that masking in schools, regular testing and improving ventilation will keep children safer, and that parents should be reassured by the data.
UnderstandVaccine and Mask Mandates in the U.S.
The level of illness in children is much less than adults, she said. You do weigh all these things, but there are also a lot of consequences to not sending children to school.
In many cases it will be relatively safe for vaccinated people to spend time, unmasked, with an older relative. But the risk depends on local conditions and the precautions the visitor has taken in the days leading up to the visit. In areas where community vaccination rates are low and overall infection rates are high, meeting outdoors or wearing a mask may be advised.
If youre vaccinated but have been going to restaurants, large gatherings or spending time with unvaccinated people, its a good idea to practice more social distancing in the days leading up to your visit with an older or vulnerable person. Home testing a few days before the visit and the day of the visit will add another layer of protection.
Gregg Gonsalves, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, said he recently visited his 87-year-old mother and did not wear a mask. But that is because both of them are vaccinated and he still works mostly from home, lives in a highly vaccinated area and has low risk for exposure. He is also investing in home testing kits for reassurance that he is not infectious.
If I just came back from a big crowded gathering, and I had to go see my mom, I would put on a mask, he said.
The answer depends on the precautions your workplace has taken. Does the company require proof of vaccination to come into the office? Are unvaccinated people tested regularly? What percentage of people in the office are unvaccinated? What steps did your company take to improve indoor air quality? (Upgrading the filters in ventilation systems and adding stand-alone HEPA air cleaners are two simple steps that can reduce viral particles in the air.)
Offices that mandate vaccination will be safer, but vaccination rates need to exceed 90 percent. Even an 85-percent vaccination rate is not enough, Dr. Jha said. Its not going to work because one of those 15-percent unvaccinated is going to cause an outbreak for every single person in that room, he said. You do not want a bunch of unvaccinated people running around your offices.
The people who have the most to gain from booster shots are older people, transplant patients, people with compromised immune systems or those with underlying conditions that put them at high risk for complications from Covid. People who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine may also be good candidates for a second dose.
But many experts say healthy people with normal immune systems who received a two-dose mRNA vaccine from Pfizer or Moderna wont get much benefit right now from a third shot because their vaccine antibodies still offer strong protection against severe illness. That said, the Biden administration appears to be moving ahead with offering booster shots to the general public starting as soon as the week of Sept. 20.
A hiring sign gets displayed in a store window in New York City in August. Last month saw a sharp slowdown in hiring from previous months as the pandemic wears on and creates uncertainty. Spencer Platt/Getty Images hide caption
A hiring sign gets displayed in a store window in New York City in August. Last month saw a sharp slowdown in hiring from previous months as the pandemic wears on and creates uncertainty.
Hiring slowed sharply in August as a new surge in coronavirus infections slammed the brakes on the economic recovery.
U.S. employers added just 235,000 jobs last month, a sharp slowdown from the torrid pace of hiring in June and July.
"The labor market recovery has downshifted," said Nela Richardson, chief economist for the payroll processing company ADP. "The U.S. economy is facing increasing headwinds as the pandemic wears on and the delta variant creates uncertainty."
The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in August from 5.4% in July.
Confirmed coronavirus infections have jumped nearly 20% in the last two weeks, while COVID-19 deaths have nearly doubled during that period. The worsening public health outlook threw a late-summer speed bump in the recovery, making people more cautious about traveling and eating out and reducing the need for workers.
Restaurants and bars cut 42,000 jobs in August after adding 253,000 in July.
Retailers cut 29,000 jobs last month.
Homebase, which makes scheduling software for small businesses, saw a notable decline in hours worked last month especially in the entertainment and hospitality industries.
"We are hearing anecdotally from our customers that absolutely it is a result of COVID," Homebase CEO John Waldmann said. "We are seeing similar trends in the data from what we saw last year and January of this year. It would be hard-pressed to say this is not COVID-related."
The slowdown in the Homebase data was particularly pronounced in the Southeast, where COVID-19 cases are especially high. New England, where case counts are lower, fared somewhat better.
The spike in new cases has also discouraged some people from returning to work. And it threatens to disrupt in-person schooling, which could make it harder for parents to hold down jobs.
"All of us who care about small businesses really wanted to be optimistic that a lot of the things keeping people from work were going to start to heal themselves into the fall," Waldmann said. "Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to be dealing with challenges here for a little bit longer."
The slowdown in hiring comes just as emergency unemployment benefits that Congress authorized earlier in the pandemic are about to expire. In mid-August, more than 12 million people were receiving some form of jobless aid. Most will receive their final payments next week.
Warehouses and delivery services added 53,000 jobs last month as the online retail business continues to expand.
Manufacturing is another bright spot in the economy, with new orders and output both accelerating in August. But factories continue to struggle to find enough parts and workers.
Factories added 37,000 jobs last month, up from 27,000 a month earlier.
"Companies want to hire more people," said Tim Fiore, who oversees a monthly survey of factory managers for the Institute for Supply Management. "There's no doubt that demand is calling for more people, and they can't get them."
Fiore said many factories are facing increased turnover as workers depart for higher wages elsewhere.
Wages have been rising, especially in restaurants and hotels. But prices have been climbing, too, eroding workers' buying power. Private sector wages in August were up 4.3% from a year ago. But they are not keeping pace with inflation, which was 5.4% in July matching the highest rate in nearly 13 years.
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 have passed 219 million globally, according to Johns Hopkins University. The number of confirmed deaths stands at more than 4.54 million. More than 5.41 billion vaccination doses have been administered globally, according to Our World in Data.
Viet Nam could face a lengthy battle against COVID-19, its prime minister has warned. "The COVID-19 pandemic is evolving in a complicated and unpredictable manner and may last for a long time," Pham Minh Chinh said.
Thailand has said its COVID-19 vaccine regimen of a dose of Sinovac followed by AstraZeneca was safe and successfully boosted immunity among its first 1.5 million recipients.
Just over 10% of Venezuelans have been vaccinated against COVID-19, according to a doctors group.
The Philippines' Food and Drug Administration has granted emergency use of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 12 to 17.
Australia is set to receive 4 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in a swap deal with Britain. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said it should speed up the country's reopening.
Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei has announced new transport and social restrictions in a bid to tackle surging COVID-19 cases and alleviate pressure on hospitals.
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people in selected countries
Image: Our World in Data
The United States plans to invest $3 billion in the vaccine supply chain, White House COVID adviser Jeffrey Zients told a news conference.
"The investments we are making, the $3 billion, are in US companies that will expand their capacity for critical supplies," Zients said.
The funding - which will start to be distributed in the coming weeks - will focus on manufacturers of the inputs used in vaccine production as well as facilities that fill and package vaccine vials, he added.
Areas of focus will include lipids, bioreactor bags, tubing, needles, syringes and personal protective equipment, Zients explained.
Each of our Top 50 social enterprise last mile responders and multi-stakeholder initiatives is working across four priority areas of need: Prevention and protection; COVID-19 treatment and relief; inclusive vaccine access; and securing livelihoods. The list was curated jointly with regional hosts Catalyst 2030s NASE and Aavishkaar Group. Their profiles can be found on www.wef.ch/lastmiletop50india.
Top Last Mile Partnership Initiatives to collaborate with:
South Korea has extended social distancing restrictions for several weeks to contain COVID-19 outbreaks across the country. It comes ahead of a thanksgiving holiday later this month.
Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said the toughest level 4 restrictions in greater Seoul and level 3 curbs in the rest of the country would run through to 3 October.
However, restaurants and cafes in the greater Seoul area would be allowed to close an hour later and families would be allowed to gather in groups of up to eight people in the week of the 21 September Chuseok holiday. At least four of the eight will need to be fully vaccinated.
"We fear a spike in outbreaks from increased movement around the Chuseok holiday," Health Minister Kwon Deok-cheol told a briefing.
Written by
Joe Myers, Writer, Formative Content
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.
