PIERRE, S.D. (KELO) Active COVID-19 cases increased by 85 in Mondays update from theSouth Dakota Department of Health.
Active cases are now at 1,355 up from Friday (1,270). The last time active cases were above 1,300 was on May 6.
Current hospitalizations from the coronavirus are now at 73, down from Friday (76). Total hospitalizations throughout the pandemic are now at 6,594, up from 6,583 on Friday.
There were 182 new total cases reported on Monday bringing the states total case count to 126,925, up from Friday (126,746). The difference in total cases is 179. The DOH resumed reporting COVID-19 numbers Monday through Friday last week after reporting new cases weekly through July.
The DOHs Community Spread map lists 32 counites as having high community spread, which equals 100 cases or more per 100,000 people or a weekly PCR test positivity rate of 10% or more. Counties with high community spread are Minnehaha, Lincoln, Brookings, Deuel, Grant, Union, Hutchinson, Hanson, Douglas, Sanborn, Jerauld, Beadle, Spink, Faulk, McPherson, Sully, Hyde, Corson, Dewey, Stanley, Hughes, Tripp, Todd, Bennett, Haakon, Meade, Pennington, Harding, Butte, Lawrence, Custer and Fall River.
The death toll from COVID-19 went up by one to to a total of 2,053. The new death was a woman in the 80+ age group.
Total recovered cases are now at 123,517, up from Friday (123,424). Total persons who tested negative is now at 378,654, up from Friday (378,281).
There were 552 new persons tested for a new persons-tested positivity rate of 32%. The latest seven-day PCR test positivity rate reported by the DOH is 10% (Aug. 6 through Aug. 12).
There have been 70 confirmed cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2, AY.1-AY.3) detected in South Dakota.
Theres been 172 cases of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha variant), 16 cases of B.1.429 and B.1427 variants (Epsilon variant), three cases of P.1. (Gamma variant) and two cases of the B.1.351 (Beta variant).
As of Monday, 60% of the population 12-years-old and above has received at least one dose while 55.19% have completed the vaccination series.
Theres been 398,826 doses of the Pfizer vaccine administered, 307,807 of the Moderna vaccine and 26,002 doses of the Janssen vaccine.
There have been 148,582 persons who have completed two doses of Moderna and 190,116 who have received two doses of Pfizer.
(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) Bailey Weems prepares doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine during a free COVID-19 clinic at Red Iguana 2 in Salt Lake City on Friday, Aug. 13, 2021.
| Aug. 16, 2021, 7:24 p.m.
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Another 2,441 Utahns tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend, and 12 more people died.
The Utah Department of Health also removed 18 earlier cases from the overall total after further testing.
The rolling seven-day average of new cases stands at 903. (UDOH no longer reports coronavirus numbers on weekends.)
In the past four weeks, unvaccinated Utahns were 5.4 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than vaccinated people, according to an analysis from the Utah Department of Health. The unvaccinated were also 6.5 times more likely to be hospitalized, and five times more likely to test positive from the coronavirus.
An additional 7,659 Utahns were fully vaccinated over the weekend, bring the total to 1,524,222 46.6% of Utahs total population.
Vaccine doses administered in past three days/total doses administered 21,633 / 3,137,913.
Utahns fully vaccinated 1,524,222.
Cases reported in past three days 2,441.
Deaths reported in past three days 12.
There were four deaths in Salt Lake County two men and one woman between the ages of 45-64, and a man 65-84.
Davis County reported three deaths two men and a woman 65-84. And three Utah County residents died two men 65-84 and a man 85-plus.
Also, a man 65-84 in Cache County and another man 65-84 in Weber County.
Tests reported in past three days 17,060 people were tested for the first time. A total of 26,747 people were tested.
Hospitalizations reported in the past day 379. Thats 25 more than on Friday. Of those currently hospitalized, 150 are in intensive care, 14 more than on Friday.
Percentage of positive tests Under the states original method, the rate is 14.3%. Thats higher than the seven-day average of 13.4%.
The states new method counts all test results, including repeated tests of the same individual. Mondays rate was 9.1%, lower than the seven-day average of 9.5%
[Read more: Utah is changing how it measures the rate of positive COVID-19 tests. Heres what that means.]
Totals to date 3,019,780 cases; 2,537 deaths; 19,360 hospitalizations; 3,019,780 people tested.
This story is developing and will be updated.
Detroiters who have been fully vaccinated for at least six months and have compromised immune systems canget a third dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the TCF Center starting Tuesday, officials announced Monday.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and Chief Public Health Officer Denise Fair also urged residents who are unvaccinated to get inoculated now so that they can have protection before a possible fourth surge of COVID-19 hits the city and state in the fall and hospitals start to fill up with patients.
Replay: Mayor Duggan update on 3rd COVID-19 vaccine shot distribution in Detroit
Public health officials say the unvaccinated are the majority of people getting seriously ill, being hospitalized and dying of the virus across the country, particularly in hot spots in the South. Duggan said there is an "enormous river of COVID transmission among the unvaccinated."
Duggan said that based on past patterns, this could be the case in Michigan "in a matter of weeks or months" and is preventable by getting vaccinated now.
"There is a good degree of likelihood that Florida's July could be Michigan's November," Duggan said. "That's what we all have to prepare for."
More: Another grim milestone: Michigan's COVID-19 death toll surpasses 20,000
More: COVID-19 vaccine clinics to be in Dollar General stores in 9 Michigan counties
The city's first-dose vaccination rate for those 12 and older is 42%, officials said. Thirty-four percent of city residents age 12 and older are fully vaccinated, according to the state's dashboard, last updated Friday.
More than 5.2million Michiganders age 16 and older (64.5% of that population) have at least one dose of vaccine. Fifty-nine percent of residents age 12 and older have at least one dose and 54.7% are fully vaccinated, according to the state's dashboard.
On Friday, a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention panel recommended a third dose of mRNA vaccines, Pfizer or Moderna,for those who are immunocompromised.
The immunocompromised could be people who have had anorgan transplant or have diseases that affect their immune systems, Duggan said.
Distribution of vaccine through the city health department will work like the first- and second-dose shots, with residents calling 313-230-0505 to schedule an appointment.
The TCF Center will reopen Tuesday for those who received the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and residents will receive the third shot of whatever vaccine they received before at the drive-through vaccination clinic, Duggan said.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was not approved for a supplemental shot.
More: COVID-19 delta variant leaving cascade of events in its wake
More: Michigan won't mandate masks in schools right now, but hopes local districts do
Duggan said the city has 30,000 Pfizer and Moderna doses on hand, and residents do not need a prescription or letter from their doctor to get a third dose.
The $50 Good Neighbor gift card card offer will be in place for those who drive someone to their vaccine appointment.
Duggan urged residents to get their first or second doses of vaccine and to not wait until the virus and its delta variant spreads further. The city has at leastseven locations where residents can get a first- or second-dose shot without an appointment.
More: Detroiters don't have to leave home, city will bring COVID-19 vaccine to them
More: Henry Ford Health System COO: Required employee COVID-19 vaccines is 'right thing to do'
He also said the city will be adding more sites where residents can get their third dose, as well as doing home visits, in the next week or so.
Fair said the city, like the state, is seeing an increase inhospitalizations and cases.She said she is "really concerned" for those who are not vaccinated.
"They remain unprotected. They are unsafe," she said.
City officials urged the use of masks in indoor, public spaces, but whenasked about a mask mandate or proof of vaccination, Duggan said that is up to the state.
More: Genesee County mandates masks for children ages 5-11 in schools, camps
City officials said callers for their third dose of vaccine will be asked four questions before scheduling their appointment:
They should bringtheir vaccination card so it can updated to reflect the third dose.
A list of locationsto receive a COVID-19 vaccine can be found at www.detroitmi.gov.
The city also offers free, drive-through testing at the Joseph Walker Williams Community Center, 8431 Rosa Parks Blvd., from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. for city residents as well as those living in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties. No appointment is necessary.
Dr. Adnan Munkarah, executive vice president and chief clinical officer for Henry Ford Health System, said Monday that the health system's infection and vaccination experts are finalizing their decision regarding third-dose shots.
He said week after week, patients increasingly have been testing positive for COVID-19 and a number are being admitted to the hospital. The health system's positivity rate was 1% to 1.5% weeks ago and now is 7% to 10%, he said.
As of Monday, 82 patients were hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19, and another 20 with suspected COVID-19 werein the emergency room being admitted and awaiting results of a test. Fifteen of the 102 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 are vaccinated while 87 are not, he said.
Munkarah was not aware of pediatric admissions in the Henry Ford Health System hospitals, but said there are young children testing positive for the virus.
He said two counties where Henry Ford Health System has hospitals -- Oakland and Jackson -- have high levels of community transmission for the virus, per the CDC's COVID tracker. Wayne and Macomb counties have substantial levels of community transmission.
The state, overall, is only one of six states in the country with a substantial level transmission. The rest are in high levels of transmission, per the CDC COVID tracker.
Munkarah said people should not wait to get vaccinated, as some immunity is acquired within the first two weeks of the first dose, "a start to give people a little bit of protection."
More: Henry Ford Health System COO: Required employee COVID-19 vaccines is 'right thing to do'
More: Detroit Public Schools mandates masks for students, faculty
He said more than 77% of the health system'semployees are vaccinated, with more going through the process and medical and religious exemptions being worked through. Henry Ford Health System was the first known health system in Michigan to require its workers to be vaccinated by Sept. 10 or they face losing their jobs.
Contact Christina Hall: chall@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter: @challreporter.
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Dozens of Texas hospitals have run out of intensive care unit beds as COVID-19 surges faster than any other time during the pandemic, propelled by the new delta variant.
The state is divided into 22 trauma service areas, and half of them reported 10 or fewer available ICU beds on Sunday. As more than 9,400 COVID-19 patients fill the states ICUs, which are reserved for the patients who are the sickest or most injured, the trauma service area that includes Laredo reported no available ICU beds, while the area that includes Abilene reported having one.
At least 53 Texas hospitals have no available ICU capacity, according to numbers reported to the federal government during the week ending Aug. 5. In Austin, five hospitals were at or above 90% of their ICU capacity during the same period, with two reporting no available ICU beds.
This surge is by far the fastest and most aggressive that we've seen. Almost all of our hospitalizations are due to unvaccinated patients developing severe illness, Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis Countys health authority, told reporters last week. ICU staff are seeing a younger population in our hospitals. Patients in the ICU are sicker and stay in the hospital longer than with prior surges, putting more strain on hospital resources.
Around 87.1% of all hospital beds in Texas are in use the highest level since the start of the pandemic with 14.1% of those beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. When Gov. Greg Abbott began to relax some COVID-19 restrictions on businesses in October, his order maintained reduced restaurant capacity and kept bars closed in regions in which 15% or more of hospital beds were filled with COVID-19 patients.
This week, COVID-19 hospitalizations reached higher levels across the state than when Abbott imposed a statewide mask mandate in July 2020. Abbott has maintained that he will not be reviving the mask mandate and has barred local authorities from issuing their own.
Governor Abbott has been clear that we must rely on personal responsibility, not government mandates, Abbott press secretary Renae Eze said in a statement on Monday. Every Texan has a right to choose for themselves and their children whether they will wear masks, open their businesses, or get vaccinated.
Medical professionals are afraid that hospitals will become so overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients that they wont have space for new patients a situation that many hospitals faced during previous COVID surges.
We need to make sure that there's beds and hospitals and staff in hospitals available to take care of people who don't just have COVID-19, but all of those other conditions, said Dr. Jennifer Shuford, chief state epidemiologist for the Texas Department of State Health Services. As we see hospitalizations increasing at this rapid rate, we are afraid that we're going to stress hospitals to the point that they can't take care of some of those other people who are coming in to the hospital for a stroke or a heart attack or any number of other things.
Already, Shuford said shes heard of hospitals that cant accept patient transfers from other hospitals because they have no beds open.
Dr. David Callender, president and CEO of Memorial Hermann Health System, a 17-hospital system spanning southeast Texas, said the onslaught of people hospitalized with COVID-19 during the recent surge could overwhelm its capacity if the current trend continues.
The system now has more than 800 people hospitalized with COVID-19, with nearly a third of its ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, he said. At times, he said hospitals have had no pediatric ICU beds available and had to transport young patients across the state or even out of the state.
Everybody who's unvaccinated needs to get a vaccine, he said. That's what will keep us out of those terrible situations where people need care in a hospital and they can't get it.
As of Saturday, 44.4% of Texans have been fully vaccinated. According to Beckers Hospital Review, Texas ranks 37th nationally for the percentage of the eligible population vaccinated.
Walkes said vaccination is still the best hope for blunting the current COVID-19 surge.
We don't want you to be that person that has to choose a ventilator instead of a vaccine, she said.
Carla Astudillo contributed to this report.
Disclosure: Memorial Hermann Health System has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
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"It's really tough and hot for us because we are always in full hazmat suit while trying to navigate small alleys and high floors with a body in tow," said Taufiq.
So far this month, almost 50 people have died at home from Covid-19, according to LaporCovid-19, an online citizen reporting platform that receives information from families and local officials.
The number surged during July to around 2,400 -- a sixfold increase from June, according to Fariz Iban, the site's data analyst, who called the number "the tip of the iceberg."
According to LaporCovid-19, most of the deaths were in Jakarta, because that's the only local government sharing figures on deaths at home from Covid-19.
Indonesia's Health Ministry doesn't keep records on the number of people who die at home, said ministry spokesperson Siti Nadia Tarmizi. She said people should only isolate at home when asymptomatic or experiencing mild symptoms.
But the Indonesian Medical Association is urging the government to change its policy, saying home isolation has deprived some patients of medical care and the lack of supervision is helping the virus to spread.
An impossible choice
Last month, as the highly contagious Delta variant swept through Indonesia, its hospital system were quickly overwhelmed.
Positive patients were told to isolate at home if they were asymptomatic, but some were unable to find a hospital bed when their condition worsened.
Warsa Tirta returned a positive Covid test in late June and followed instructions to stay at home, said his son-in-law Fakhri Yusuf.
The 62-year-old driver wasn't feeling ill, but he had taken a test because his boss had caught the virus and there was risk he'd passed it on.
But within days of Warsa's home isolation, Fakhri's mother and two sisters also became ill. Warsa tried to care for them, but before long all three needed professional medical help, Fakhri said.
"I tried to register them all to Covid Emergency Hospital, but they only can accept one person," said Fakhri. "All beds in the hospital were fully occupied. So we decided to send my sister (to hospital)."
Warsa died on the morning of July 6.
"I tried to register them all with a Covid Emergency Hospital, but they only could accept one person."Fakhri Yusuf
Fakhri said he called the local health center, but no one was available to take the body as hundreds of other people had also died that day.
"Their response was very slow. I was told that all of undertakers are busy with other death victims all around Jakarta," he said.
So Fakhri called the National Board of Zakat (Baznas), a government-run group that distributes zakats, or alms in the Muslim faith, where Taufiq works as a volunteer.
"They do all the process at home smoothly," Fakhri said. "Around 4 p.m. we depart to the cemetery, and the whole funeral procession was finished before dark."
Hospitals overwhelmed
As Covid cases mounted, the government raced to build new field hospitals and isolation facilities.
They included Pasar Rumput, a low-cost apartment block that would offer almost 6,000 new beds, according to a spokesman from the Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing.
The facility opened as planned. But as of this week, local media reports suggested fewer than 300 people were using it.
Siti, the government spokeswoman, says there are more than enough beds for the 30,000 or so new cases being reported each day.
"Now we really don't see any difficulties for the patient to access treatment, either in the isolation centers or in the hospitals," she said.
But despite the availability of beds, asymptomatic people and those with mild symptoms are still being given the option to stay at home.
Daily reported Covid-19 cases
"The ones who have more moderate symptoms, they need to go to the isolation center," said Siti. "The ones who have very severe symptoms, including difficulties in breathing, they should go to the hospital."
Siti said positive cases are being monitored at home through a private telemedicine company, where they can access help if needed.
But Dr. Daeng M. Faqih, chairman of the Indonesian Medical Association, says the government's health advice needs to change.
"We are now advocating government change the policy of home isolations. Isolations should be centralized in special isolation shelters," he said.
Daeng said home isolation aids the spread of the virus because many people live in crowded conditions, where it's impossible to protect family members.
"Isolations should be centralized in special isolation shelters."Dr. Daeng M. Faqih Chairman, Indonesian Medical Association
"Culturally in Indonesia, it is very common to have more than one family sharing one house, even three families in one house is not uncommon so, this will create family cluster," he said.
He also said it's difficult to stop asymptomatic people from leaving their homes.
"They can easily be moving around and infecting others," he said.
Death toll rising
Indonesia's daily number of cases may have halved since July, but it's still reporting the world's highest death toll each day -- about 1,500 people compared to 490 in India and 342 in the United States.
The crisis has delayed the country's vaccination rollout, and now officials are racing to double the number of daily doses to at least two million.
The country is aiming to vaccinate 208 million of its population of 270 million people, though that is some way off.
As of August 13, less than 10% of Indonesians had received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine, according to a CNN count.
In the meantime, Taufiq and his team of undertakers stand ready to help, if and when they're required.
Taufiq says his day starts with a prayer for his and his team's safety -- and ends with one for those who succumb to the virus.
He says his faith has kept him going through several difficult weeks.
"My family are afraid and scared that I will get infected and bring the virus (home) to them. But I convinced them (it was safe), and they also pray for me," he added.
Experts have long predicted that the pandemic will end with a whimper, not a bang. That is, COVID-19 wont so much disappear as fade into the background, becoming like the many other common pathogens that sicken people, but also can be controlled with vaccines and drugs.
This can become a livable pathogen where its there, it circulates, youre going to hear on the evening news about outbreaks in a dorm or a movie theater, but people go about their normal lives, former U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb predicted in an April 2020 interview with TIME. For a while, it felt like the U.S. was closing in on that point. Highly effective vaccines arrived and made their way into millions of arms. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) relaxed its guidance on wearing face masks. By mid-June, the U.S. was recording an average of about 11,500 new cases each day, with deaths and hospitalizations falling commensurately. Many bars and restaurants opened to full capacity, schools and offices made plans to reopen their doors and travel was rebounding. People were, by and large, returning to normal life.
And then the highly transmissible Delta variant hit, threatening to unravel everything. The U.S. is now clocking around 100,000 new infections per day. Thanks to those highly effective vaccines, fewer people are dying or ending up in the hospital than they did at similar points during previous wavesbut with only about half the country fully vaccinated, millions of people in the U.S. remain as vulnerable as ever. The situation has grown bad enough that the CDC on July 27 advised vaccinated people in areas of the country where the virus is spiking to resume wearing masks in public indoor settings, and many schools and offices are walking back just-finalized reopening plans.
Is this really what it feels like to live with COVID-19?
There is only one human virus that the World Health Organization officially considers eradicated: the one that causes smallpox. Wiping out an infectious illness is incredibly difficult. Its far more common for a pathogen to instead become endemicthat is, part of life in a particular place. Endemic viruses circulate consistently, and not without some disease and death, but they dont bring society to a screeching halt.
Thats the fate many experts see for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Theres no plausible way I can imagine us getting to zero COVID-19, and I think its a distraction to aim for that unlikely goal, says Dr. Sandro Galea, an epidemiologist and dean of the Boston University School of Public Health. A more realistic endpoint, he says, is for widespread immunity to make it so most people who get COVID-19 suffer no more than they would from a severe cold.
In that reality, lots of infections wouldnt necessarily mean mass deaths and hospitalizations. The flu, for example, infects anywhere from 9 to 45 million people in the U.S. each year, according to CDC estimates, but lands far fewer in the hospital (between 140,000 and 810,000) and kills fewer still (between 12,000 and 61,000).
Thanks to vaccines, Galea says, the U.S. isnt so far from a similar situation with COVID-19. While death and hospitalization rates are dangerously high in states with low vaccine coverage, like Florida and Louisiana, the national picture is changing. About 125,000 people in the U.S. were diagnosed with COVID-19 on August 6 and less than 600 people died from it that day. On the same day last summer, there were about 60,000 new cases diagnosed and more than 1,200 new deaths.
People receive COVID-19 shots at a mass-vaccination site in Seattle on March 13, 2021
Lindsey WassonReuters
No vaccine is perfect, and that includes the ones authorized for COVID-19. As was always expected, some immunized people are experiencing breakthrough infections, which can (but rarely do) lead to serious illness. CDC analysis also suggests vaccinated people who get infected with the Delta variant are capable of infecting othersperhaps even as capable as unvaccinated peoplewhich was a major motivator for the CDC once again recommending indoor masking in many areas.
But that doesnt mean the vaccines arent doing their jobs. They were, after all, designed to protect against severe disease and death, not infections. On that front, theyre still doing exceptionally well. Just 0.01% of fully vaccinated people in the U.S. have reported a breakthrough infection that led to severe disease, according to recent CDC data. And during a recent, high-profile outbreak on Cape Cod, almost three-quarters of the 469 Massachusetts residents who got infected were vaccinated, but just four of them landed in the hospital.
Vaccines are a huge piece of learning to live with COVID-19, but the availability of effective treatments play an important role too. When the pandemic began last year, doctors were learning as they went. In March 2020, a staggering 25% of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in one New York City health system died from it, according to one study. By August 2020, that number had fallen to under 8%, in large part because doctors knew what they were dealing with and had more research on effective drugs and therapies. Now, multiple treatments have received FDA authorization, helping to make the disease more manageable, and even more are in development.
Nevertheless, an obvious problem remains: about half the U.S. population still hasnt been vaccinated. That leaves millions of lives at stake, and allows the virus to keep tearing through regions, like the South and Midwest, where vaccine coverage is low. Right now, the rough equivalent of an entire stadium full of Ohio State football fans is diagnosed with COVID-19 every day in the U.S. Thats not sustainable, says Dr. Vineet Arora, dean for medical education at the University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine. She finds the conversation about endemic COVID-19 both premature and concerning, because she fears some people take it as license to give up. There are still tools in our toolbox that we need to use before waving the white flag, Arora says.
For example, vaccines havent yet been authorized for kids younger than 12, leaving millions of children vulnerable and potentially able to serve as tiny viral vectors. (Authorization for younger children may come this year, potentially as soon as autumn.) The three vaccines available in the U.S. right now have also only received emergency-use authorization rather than full FDA approval, a higher standard that involves a longer review process. If and when the FDA grants that full approval, Arora says it could both boost confidence in the shots and make schools and workplaces feel more comfortable about requiring them.
And though vaccine hesitancy has been discussed ad nauseam, the truth is that many of the roughly 30% of U.S. adults who remain unvaccinated are not anti-vaxxers. Surveys consistently show that roughly 15% of U.S. adults say they will not get the vaccine under any circumstances. But that leaves another 15% or so in the gray area. Some still want to wait and see what happens to people who have already been vaccinated. A small percentage have allergies or other medical conditions that prevent them from getting vaccinated. Others may struggle to access vaccines because theyve been overlooked by the health care system, cant take time off from work or child care or havent gotten trustworthy answers to their questions, Arora says. Reaching those people can take lots of time and individual attention, but she says it can and must be done with targeted, culturally sensitive community outreach.
If the U.S. accepts COVID-19 as an unchangeable fact of life before taking those steps, Were giving up on our children, as well as people who already are living with structural inequities, Arora saysnot to mention the burned-out health care workers who will have to keep treating a never-ending queue of coronavirus patients.
Further, letting our guards down early could open the door to new variants even worse than the Delta strain. The longer a virus spreads in a community, the more chances it has to mutatepotentially to the point that currently available vaccines no longer offer strong protection. Were not there yet, but variants may already be challenging the natural antibodies hard-won by people who previously survived COVID-19 infections, says Katherine Xue, a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University who studies viral evolution and the microbiome.
Consider the seasonal flu. The flu virus changes constantly, year to year, Xue says. Its that change that allows it to evade the buildup of immunity that we acquire through our own previous infectionshence why flu shots are given annually. Similarly, as COVID-19 mutates, it will also likely get better at outsmarting the bodys defenses. The immune system doesnt forget completelyas with other viruses, youd likely experience subsequently milder illness with each exposurebut the more different the virus is, the more pressure it may place on those immune defenses, Xue says.
That underscores the importance of vaccinating as many people, as fast as possible, to cut off the virus ability to mutate. Doing so at a global scale is even more important, since many countries have vaccinated less than 20% of their populations. As long as we have very large numbers of unvaccinated people around the globe, that still gives the virus many opportunities to transmit, and transmission gives it opportunities to evolve, Xue says.
In Aroras mind, thats another argument for staying vigilant about COVID-19 prevention. As long as the virus is evolving, we have to evolve with it, she says. That means being willing to resume certain safety precautionslike wearing masks in public indoor spaces, as the CDC again recommendswhen conditions call for it.
The work isnt over, but Boston Universitys Galea says hes optimistic all the same. He believes vaccination rates will continue to inch upward as more people trust in the shots benefits, and as community leaders and health workers find ways to traverse the last mile and bring vaccines to the people who need them. He seems to be right, particularly as people see the impact of the Delta variant close to home: On average, more than 400,000 people are now getting their first dose each day, nearly double the daily average a month ago.
Theres also the bittersweet reality that people who get infected with the virus develop some immunity to it (though less than they would get from vaccination), meaning population-level susceptibility goes down each day, Galea says.
As long as COVID-19 continues to circulate and mutate globally, there will be periodic spikes in infections. Butassuming SARS-CoV-2 behaves like other, similar virusesthese spikes should grow progressively milder, since a larger and larger chunk of the population will have immunity, either through vaccination or prior infection, each time it flares up. Eventually, it could become a disease that primarily affects young children, since everyone else would have had a brush with it before, says Jennie Lavine, a computational biologist who models infectious diseases at Atlantas Emory University.
If everyone 50 years from now is getting a first [COVID-19] infection between the ages of 0 and 5, that would actually be lower disease burden than flu, Lavine notes, because kids, at least so far, have been less likely than adults to die from or develop serious cases of COVID-19.
Of course, there are always exceptions to rules. Future variants could hit kids harder than initial strains, as already seems to be happening to some degree with Delta. Elderly adults and the immunocompromised will likely remain more vulnerable to COVID-19 than the general population, meaning health officials will have to find ways to keep them safe and healthy. And, as with other viruses, there will likely continue to be people who develop long-lasting and sometimes debilitating symptoms after even mild cases of COVID-19a serious problem that demands more research and better treatments.
None of those exceptions should be discounted. But in terms of learning to live with COVID-19 at a population level, turning it into a disease that kills and hospitalizes far fewer people than it infects is perhaps more important than getting case counts down to zero. Were more concerned, really, with how mild or severe it will be when it is at its steady state, Lavine says.
Reaching that steady state isnt like turning a page on a calendar. Theres never going to be a mission accomplished banner. Theres not going to be a moment when we switch from pandemic to endemic, Xue says. Its going to be a very gradated move back toward normal life.
That might mean mitigation tools, like masks and limits on large-capacity events, are periodically recommended during disease flare-ups. It may mean booster shots will be required at some point, to keep pace with the ever-changing virus. And, yes, it will likely mean dealing with some (hopefully small) amount of death and disease as more of the population builds up immunity.
But, as Xue wrote in a recent piece for the New Yorker, humanity has done this before. Influenza strains that routinely circulate today caused pandemics in the past. Some scientists even believe coronavirus OC43, which now causes little more than the common cold, seeded a pandemic in the 1800s. The point is not to minimize the suffering that occurred during those pandemics, but to recognize that the world eventually came out on the other sideand that the same is possible for SARS-CoV-2.
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Write to Jamie Ducharme at jamie.ducharme@time.com.
August 9, 2021 | Austin, Texas | Press Release
Governor Greg Abbott today announced a series of actions the State of Texas is taking to mitigate the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in Texas.The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) will be utilizingstaffing agencies to provide medical personnel from out-of-state to Texas health care facilities to assist in COVID-19 operations.The Governor has alsosent a letter to the Texas Hospital Associationasking hospitals to voluntarily postpone elective medical procedures, for which a delay will not result in loss of life or the deterioration of a patient's condition, in order to increase hospital capacity for COVID-19 patients.
Governor Abbott isdirecting the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) and DSHSto open additional COVID-19antibody infusion centersin communities across the state. These infusion centers will treat COVID-19 patients who do not need hospitalization with therapeutic drugs that can prevent their condition from worsening and requiring hospital care. These centers also help increase bed capacity in hospitals so that resources are available for the most ill patients.The existing infusion center in Lubbock will expand capacity this week, and DSHS will launch five new centers throughout Texas beginning with a facility in San Antonio tomorrow.The State deployedsimilar measures in early 2021 to communities across Texas. Patients must meet certain criteria and have a referral from a doctor.
The Governor is also directing TDEM and DSHS to increase vaccination availability across the state and encourages all Texans to get the COVID-19 vaccine.Texans can visitcovidvaccine.texas.govto find a provider near them. Texans can also utilizeTDEM's State Mobile Vaccine Programby calling844-90-TEXAS and selecting Option 3 to schedule a mobile vaccine clinic to vaccinate groups of of friends, families, employees, volunteers, and more.Homebound Texans can also call 844-90-TEXAS and choose Option 1 to request a mobile vaccine team to come to their home.
"The State of Texas is taking action to combat the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and ensure that our hospitals and communities have the resources and support they need to mitigate the virus," said Governor Abbott. "Texans can help bolster our efforts by getting vaccinated against COVID-19. The COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective, and it is our best defense against this virus. Texans can visitcovidvaccine.texas.govto find a COVID-19 vaccine provider near them."
Editors Note: Kent Sepkowitz is a CNN medical analyst and a physician and infection control expert at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.
CNN
The unrelenting Covid-19 pandemic is now well into its fourth wave. Although more than half of the United States is fully vaccinated, the wildly contagious Delta variant is causing trouble throughout the country, with some areas seeing more daily infections than ever before.
Though this moment is unsettling, sooner (we hope) or later the Delta variant will pass. It may be difficult to believe, but its inevitable. The 1918 Spanish flu, for which there was no vaccine, infected about a third of the world and eventually fizzled out after three waves, although the virus itself never fully went away: scraps of its genes can be found even in todays influenza strains
What goes up eventually comes down. The B.1.1.7 variant of the virus that causes Covid-19 first identified in the UK and now referred to as the Alpha variant, routed much of the US over the winter before cases dropped back down, in large part due to the vaccine rollout.
Similarly, we should keep in mind that pandemics eventually end, often receding into pockets of disease here and there, either because a society effectively controls it, a vaccine is administered widely enough to hem it in, the virus itself changes into something less threatening, the weather changes or some other mysterious force that seems to govern epidemics comes into play.
Which raises the next question now forming in the minds of scientists and veteran worriers everywhere: what will happen once the Delta variant has finished infecting whomever it will infect? Will the horror show finally end? Or will there be yet another wave of yet another variant, one that can evade the current vaccines? Are we looking at an even worse lockdown than the grim pre-vaccine hunkering that we saw in 2020?
No one knows. I repeat: no one knows. No one can know. Which means even though we might be approaching an awkward start-stop, yes-no, relax-panic, is it really over? phase, we are stuck flying blind. Sorry. But regardless of the irreducible uncertainty, were bound to see articles many, many articles, like this one and interviews many, many interviews on what comes after the Delta variant. Even though planning doesnt always make perfect, considering the range of maybes is the only way to prepare.
Here is my guess on whats ahead. The Delta variant will continue to overwhelm unvaccinated communities. Right now, Mississippi and Oklahoma, both of which have vaccination rates that are lower than the national average, have unimaginably high rates of test positivity, exceeding 50%; an additional six states have test positivity rates that are higher than 20%. While Florida and Alabama do not release this data to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, they are also likely to be high in both states, given the rising case numbers there.
And these are the rates before millions of unvaccinated pre-teens are marched off to school, many unmasked and undistanced. This will likely lead to more spread and more soul-crushing tragedy, much of it vaccine-preventable. This surge of new cases, which we saw at the start of the school year in 2020, will take a while to settle down. And by then, we will be looking at the winter when the prospect of being stuck indoors hour after hour will feel particularly grim.
But despite all this, I am somewhat optimistic. At this point in the pandemic, 69% of the eligible US population have received at least a single dose of vaccine and within a few months, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is likely to approve the current mRNA vaccines for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in pre-teens. There are only so many unvaccinated people at this point who can get infected. While breakthrough cases certainly do happen, they remain a small minority of overall cases at least for now.
Thus, even with the persistent proliferation of anti-vaccine, anti-mask and anti-distancing messages, states with high vaccine rates did indeed pull themselves out of the sky-is-falling misery of the winter. While there is of course backsliding as the Delta strain takes hold, these states continue a relatively normal existence. Yes, masks are back in many cases, and there are difficult decisions ahead about schools and the need for booster shots.
In contrast, states with low vaccination rates are on a much more difficult path and will not establish equipoise with the virus until thousands and thousands more become ill. The ones that survive, combined with those already vaccinated, will eventually provide a comparable collective immunity that will allow them to establish something resembling normalcy though at tremendous cost of life, health and resources.
Of course, this all may fall apart due to a second problem introduced by our disjointed response to the pandemic. By prolonging the time it takes to control the pandemic, we have dramatically increased opportunities for new variants to emerge, including one with a potential doomsday mutation that renders our current crop of vaccinations useless. Though possible, this seems unlikely. Vaccines are not like antibiotics; the latter typically tend to either work or not work at all. Vaccines on the other hand, likely by provoking the many different prongs of the immune system, may lose some edge against new variants but not with the same dramatic off-on suddenness of antibiotics. As studies have shown, the mRNA vaccines remain quite effective, though admittedly less so against the Delta variant.
Plus, the scientific community has long had experience chasing after the genetic contortions of various viruses and bacteria. The genetic composition of influenza is famously shifty, requiring a new vaccine each year that aims at the four likeliest strains. Pneumococcus, the most common bacterial cause of pneumonia, also can change serotypes (similar to strains), making adjustments a necessity. But we have the tools to identify and adjust to these changes relatively quickly.
All of this is, of course, only my educated guess. Covid-19 behaves in ways weve never seen before theres the lack of clear seasonality, the transmissibility before clinical illness and the hyperinflammation that causes the bulk of serious clinical illness. With vaccines as with so much else, Covid-19 may not play by the previously established rules.
Uncertainty abounds right now as it has for the entire pandemic. The only real certainty we have is this: the worlds herd will eventually become immune to the Delta variant one way (via vaccine) or another (through infection, disease and possible death). Humans can decide between the options but the virus has declared its intent.
As for what the world will look like post-Delta, that too remains uncertain. But Covid-19 looks increasingly like its here to stay. Much like the seasonal flu, we will probably have coronavirus outbreaks in the years ahead, with good years and bad years and better and worse vaccine boosters. And much like measles, whooping cough and other preventable infections, there will continue to be relatively small groups of people who prefer to forgo vaccines, despite the many risks. This, of course, could then endanger the rest of the population.
Regardless of what the post-Delta world holds, we need to do much better in the here and now. Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence that supports the use of vaccines and other precautionary measures including masks, the demoralizing one-sided debate about their efficacy continues. Meanwhile, more than 621,000 people including young children have already died and more will die, be it from the Delta variant or whatever comes next.
It appears this debate, fueled largely by misinformation, will continue until the public recognizes that the pandemic is caused by an infectious disease and not political opportunism. Given this simple fact, it will not be stopped by threats or protests or speeches, but rather by vaccination and other preventive measures just like so many infectious diseases before it.
As the United States experiences another surge in coronavirus infections fueled by the rise of the delta variant, the Los Angeles Lakers have joined a growing list of corporations mandating the COVID-19 vaccine for all full-time employees who work in their offices, with limited exceptions.
The Lakers joined with several other professional sports franchises and ticketing venues in Southern California to announce the news in the following statement:
CEOs from the two largest live entertainment and ticketing companies, and ownership of five Southern California professional sports franchises have each decided to require that all full-time employees working at eligible company offices in the U.S. be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 with limited exceptions as required by law.
The organizations include Live Nation Entertainment, AEG, Goldenvoice, Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, AXS, Los Angeles Lakers, LA Kings, Anaheim Ducks, LA Galaxy and Los Angeles Chargers. Each organization has or will be implementing policies designed to expand on health department guidelines and ensure the best interests of employees.
In addition to mandating vaccines for full-time U.S. office employees, these organizations are working closely with public health officials to ensure that they are following or exceeding the latest guidance as it relates to vaccination, testing and masking requirements for fans and event staff in their venues.
We must work together and across sectors to ensure that we are increasing vaccination rates especially now as we see an increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions due to the highly contagious Delta variant, said California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly. Vaccination against COVID-19 is the most effective means of preventing infection from COVID-19 virus, and subsequent transmission and outbreaks. These organizations are setting a good example for other companies, and I applaud their efforts.
This news follows companies like Disney, Google, Facebook, Walmart and others requiring their own employees returning to offices to get the COVID-19 vaccine as part of a growing movement in corporate America.
This requirement will not apply to players at least not yet as not only are they not office employees, but they are also represented by a powerful union, the NBPA, which would need to negotiate with the league and collectively bargain any new mandates for players.
The Lakers did reach the threshold of having 85% of their roster and traveling party fully vaccinated by the end of the 2020-21 season, but have almost entirely overhauled their roster, so it is unclear whether they would still meet that benchmark when the new season begins. At least two of their new additions, Dwight Howard and Kent Bazemore, have expressed vaccine hesitancy in the past.
As my colleagues at Vox.com point out, more than 60 percent of adults and 80 percent of people over 65 are fully vaccinated, giving them excellent protection against severe illness or death from Covid; so far less than 0.004 percent of fully vaccinated people have been hospitalized with Covid, and less than 0.001 percent have died.
For more information on the safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine, visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website, and for help in making an appointment to get the vaccine in Los Angeles, visit the County of Los Angeles Public Health website.
For more Lakers talk, subscribe to the Silver Screen and Roll podcast feed on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or Google Podcasts. You can follow Harrison on Twitter at @hmfaigen.
