John Edmunds has been at the centre of the unravelling of the Covid-19 pandemic since cases first appeared in January 2020. A member of Sage, the governments scientific advisory group, and a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, he has consistently warned ministers about the threats posed by the disease.
These risks have often been clear in their nature. But today, 18 months after Covid-19 first appeared, he believes the nation stands at a point of maximum uncertainty about the future of the pandemic.
At any other point of the epidemic, it has been easier to foresee what might happen, he told the Observer. But at this point, I think its really hard to understand what has happened and what is going to happen in the long term. There is a huge amount of uncertainty about the disease at the moment.
The fact that we are a year and a half into the pandemic and are still being wrongfooted by Covid-19 may seem surprising. After all, in that time, we have developed powerful vaccines to protect against it and have pinpointed critically important drugs to treat patients. Science has worked wonders.
Nevertheless, researchers are still very unsure about how Covid-19 will progress in the UK in the coming months.
The statistics have certainly been startling. First, case numbers rocketed at the beginning of July. Then they reversed and began to fall, leaving statisticians and scientists struggling to make sense of the fluctuating figures. For good measure, a host of conflicting factors has been put forward to explain Covid case numbers.
Has the opening up of society on 19 July had a major impact? Did Euro 2020 propel the virus through the homes and pubs of England? Could the UK be approaching herd immunity? And what impact have the school holidays had on the progress of the disease?
Untangling these factors, as well as understanding the exact impact vaccines have had on society, has now become a complex, urgent business. It will tell us just how bad things are likely to get when society really opens up in September and October and as winter approaches, said Edmunds.
There is clear agreement on one factor, however. All the evidence indicates that vaccines are now playing a pivotal role in controlling the disease. Had the government completely opened society on an unprotected populace, daily death tolls would by now have soared into their thousands. But just how far has our vaccine protection reached?
It is a crucial question, whose answer will determine just how severe will be the return of Covid-19 in the autumn as schools reopen, the weather chills and people head indoors. A key factor is the degree to which the country has achieved herd immunity. In other words, will we have reached the point where so many people have been either infected or vaccinated and therefore possess some immunity to the disease that viral transmission falls or even stops?
You can run some very simple models to see if the case numbers that we saw earlier this month are consistent with effective herd immunity, said Prof Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University. And in my view the answer is, yes, it is. There are some big caveats but the bottom line is that those figures are consistent with the impact of herd immunity.
Woolhouse pointed to a recent Office of National Statistics survey which showed that around 90% of adults in the UK now possessed Covid antibodies, which indicates that they could be capable of some kind of immune response to infection. That is a very large fraction and it may well be having an impact, he said.
Prof Martin Hibberd, also of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, agreed that herd immunity was becoming a realistic prospect. We are approaching herd immunity but I dont think were quite there yet, he said.
But if we are nearing this sought-after goal, why was there such a rapid rise in cases in mid-July? What circumstances could have triggered this massive leap in infections in a nation that is supposed to be heading towards herd immunity? Scientists point to two key factors: the Euros and schools closing for the holidays.
If you look at herd immunity, you would expect it to peak at different times in different parts of the country as there are differing levels of immunity across the country, said Edmunds. But this is not what we saw: we saw a synchronous drop in cases right across England. This suggests an external factor was behind it something that occurred across the country at the same time.
And the two most likely candidates, he said, are schools closing and the pingdemic that occurred immediately after the Euros. In other words, the large gatherings of fans mostly male in pubs to watch England play football would have triggered jumps in case numbers in mid-July. This would have been followed by a rise in contacts being asked to self-isolate after being linked to infected fans.
This bout of self-isolation occurred across the country at the same time, and it looks like it reduced cases, Edmunds said. But these would be expected to go up again if were not for the effect of school closures.
Pupils are no longer bringing home viruses after picking them up in class. This is now probably helping to hold cases down, and may well do so over the summer.
This point was backed by Woolhouse. We are now three and a half weeks past our peak in Scotland, and numbers are still not going back up. So, you know, Im more confident that the underlying trend is in the right direction.
Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute in Oxford, also thinks the short-term picture is optimistic. It looks as if case numbers are plateauing, and one would hope they will drop somewhat over summer, he said.
However, problems will return in September when children go back to school, businesses open up and people spend more time indoors.
We will still have high levels of infection in the community. About one person in 65 carries the virus at present, and that means virus levels are not going to go down significantly by September, Naismith said. Under those circumstances, the virus will have a good platform from which to start infecting those who are unprotected when conditions make it more favourable for it to spread.
This point was backed by virologist Stephen Griffin of Leeds University. I am worried that even if case numbers continue to go down, they will start to come back up again with a vengeance in September when the schools go back.
One solution proposed by Naismith is to vaccinate 16- and 17-year-olds across the UK. That would protect them from Covid-19 complications, which are worse than any vaccine complications they might encounter. It would also push the population closer to the level it needs to achieve herd immunity.
I think we are close to that immunity but will not be quite there by autumn, he added. So we should be thinking about whether or not to vaccinate 16- and 17-year-olds. That would help us achieve wider protection against the virus. In any case, teenagers are perfectly capable of making up their own minds about the risks and benefits involved in being vaccinated. After all, 16-year-olds in Scotland are allowed to vote.
Two further vexing issues bedevil attempts to clarify the nations route out of the pandemic: new variants and possible fading vaccine efficacy. The danger posed by new variants concern is raised by Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, in Spike: The Virus v the People, his new book about the pandemic. High infection rates raise the chances of a new variant being cooked up, he argues. That is very probably why the variants of concern have been traced to countries like the UK, South Africa and Brazil, which have had poorly controlled transmission.
These fears are echoed by Hibberd. It is possible that, with luck, the virus will not be able to mutate sufficiently to enable it to escape the immunity being provided by vaccines or previous infections, he told the Observer. Nevertheless, the appearance of an immunity-evading virus is a distinct possibility. After all, it happens with other viruses, like influenza. We have to create new vaccines against flu every year, and it mutates and comes back the next year slightly changed, and we then have to develop a new vaccine to tackle it.
At present, scientists and pharmaceutical companies are working on vaccines to tackle some of the new variants that have appeared over the past year. For example, the Oxford vaccine team led by Dame Sarah Gilbert is working on one for the beta variant, first discovered in South Africa, which is considered to be the one with the greatest potential to evade vaccines.
And then there is the issue of vaccine efficacy. Studies have shown that Covid-19 antibodies decrease over time in vaccinated individuals. This may limit peoples protection against the virus.
A study published last week indicated that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine declines by an average of 6% every two months. Findings such as these suggest that the government may have to set up a programme of booster vaccine shots for the over-50s to strengthen their protection over the winter.
These fears were highlighted last month by the Academy of Medical Sciences in its report, Covid-19: Preparing for the Future. We are going to go into this winter and start mixing again in ways that we didnt do last year, said Dame Anne Johnson, president of the academy. In those circumstances, we can expect to see a real upsurge in respiratory infections such as flu, which we may have waning immunity against because we were not exposed to it last year.
In addition, the Office of National Statistics estimated, in its last report, that a total of 856,200 people in England were infected with the Covid virus during the week ending 24 July. That is a very big number.
So whether overall figures go up or down slightly, the current situation is that weve got an awful lot of infection around with a very transmissible variant. So the take-home message is clear: this pandemic has not yet gone away.
Exactly how it plays out is a different matter. There are so many variables involved. Indeed the only thing that is clear is that the situation is very uncertain.
By Susan Canfora
The Delaware Division of Public Health is reporting 111,275 positive cases of the coronavirus, bringing the seven-day average of new positive cases to 89.9.
The seven-day average was 3.5 percent, up from 2.5 percent increase reported on July 20, according to a news release issued by the Delaware Division of Public Health.
As of the end of last week, 1,830 Delaware residents had died from the virus, including 545 from Sussex County, 903 from New Castle County and 382 from Kent County.
Thirty-two Delaware residents were hospitalized with the virus, four less than last week. Three were critically ill, a decrease of one from last week.
Those who have died ranged from younger than 5 to 104 years old. There were 927 women and 903 men.
So far, 72.3 percent of Delaware residents 18 and older have received at least one dose of the vaccine to protect against the virus and as of July 30, 1,055,977 doses had been administered, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has consistently stated vaccines are the best protection against COVID-19 and variants. See de.gov/covidvaccine.
The Division of Public Health, partnering with the Delaware National Guard, have launched mobile units to offer vaccinations in underserved communities. Medically trained staff will give the Pfizer vaccine to those 12 and older and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to those 18 and older. Mobile units are scheduled to visit Sussex, New Castle and Kent counties next week. See de.gov/getmyvaccine.
As of Friday, July 30, the Division of Public Health has identified several variants in Delaware, through test specimens. They include the United Kingdom variant, South Africa, Brazil, India, New York, California and UK/Nigeria, which was formerly a New York strain.
Virus mutation is common but because these variants may spread more easily, those not vaccinated who are more susceptible to getting the virus and should wear a face mask, wash their hand frequently and be careful when attending large gatherings.
Vaccination reduces the chance of developing the virus or becoming seriously ill from it. So far, 469,873 Delaware residents have been fully vaccinated and of those, there have been 567 breakthrough cases of COVID-19.
As of July 29, there have been 2,785 positive cases of the coronavirus involving long-term care residents, with 825 residents dying, an increase of 65, between mid-May 2020 and late June 2021, according to the news release.
Even those who are fully vaccinated should get tested if they develop symptoms including fever, cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, muscle aches, fatigue, chills, shaking with chills, loss of smell or taste, nausea or vomiting, diarrhea, headache, congestion or runny nose without a known cause such as allergies. Other symptoms can include abdominal pain or lack of appetite. For information about testing, see de.gov/gettested.
Many Israelis, confused by changing restrictions and inconsistent enforcement, are unclear what rules the government currently has in place to contain the novel coronavirus.For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
On June 25, the masks were again required in public places indoors and on public transport, but not in eateries. And on July 29, the Green Pass restrictions were partially reimposed.
Under the latest restrictions, everyone over the age of 12 must present a Green Pass certificate of vaccination or recovery or show a negative COVID-19 test to access indoor events and restaurant venues where more than 100 people are present. Moreover, everyone over the age of 12 years must do the same to enter all hotels, restaurants, gyms, cafes, bars, pubs, and cultural and sporting events.
People without a Green Pass may present one of the following documents: a PCR test (result valid for 72 hours) or a rapid test (result valid for 24 hours).
Prof. Ora Paltiel of the Hebrew University-Hadassah Braun School of Public Healths Department of Hematology told The Media Line, I think there is definitely some confusion. I think theres a message to be careful, but there is not a clear message that regulations are being enforced.
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Paltiel is pleased with the governments approach to vaccinating people, and with Prime Minister Naftali Bennetts clear message that to refuse vaccination is to endanger fellow Israelis.
One message that I think is clear is that he does say that he wants to keep the economy open, and he wants schools to open, and that there is an issue of individual responsibility, but I think that the issue of what is individual responsibility or social responsibility, that has to be made a little bit clearer, she said.
Some Israelis remain bewildered by what they see as the inconsistency of the governments message.
Asher, a 58-year-old Jerusalemite, explained his predicament to The Media Line.
The government says last week that the vaccine is not good against the delta [variant of the] virus, and now they say that everybody must go and get vaccinated [for a third time, because of the delta variant]. We dont know what to do, he said.
As of August 1, all Israelis over the age of 60 who are not currently or were previously ill with the novel coronavirus, and who received their second inoculation against COVID-19 more than five months ago, can make an appointment to receive a third inoculation, or booster shot, consisting of Pfizer vaccine.
Asher continued that the apparent irregularity of the governments messaging has made him distrustful.
Im not really believing the government. They say one thing, and the next day they say another thing. It has confused most people.
However, Devora, 33, another Jerusalem resident, said she has no problems finding out what the current government guidelines are.
First of all, theres the website of the Health Ministry. Second of all, they have a Telegram [social media] group, and there you get the formal indications right away, she told The Media Line.
Other Israelis appear to be suffering what has come to be known as coronavirus fatigue. Many of these people strictly adhered to regulations during the first year of the pandemic but have since become disillusioned, losing hope that the virus is going away.
Chai, a 38-year-old man living just outside Jerusalem, told The Media Line on Sunday, I dont know if Im taking it seriously anymore. I believe whats happening is true; Im not believing conspiracies. Im just not so afraid, and Im not so concerned about doing what the government tells you.
Chai had not heard anything about the renewed Green Pass regulations.
Paltiel expressed concern over the diminishing regard for government restrictions.
I think what happened was that we had a real honeymoon in May, beginning of June, when there were really almost no cases, she said. I think thats natural, but people need to take into account that things [new infections] seem to be doubling every week.
The government appears to have recognized this shift in public sentiment. On Thursday, Bennett released a statement saying that the hiring of 400 inspectors had been approved by the Finance Ministrys Budget Division, to enforce coronavirus regulations on public transportation.
Paltiel is skeptical of this approach.
I think people should enforce one another. People shouldnt be shy about telling one another, even socially, to wear masks. I think that making it a criminal matter never really worked. I would put more stock in social pressure, she said.
Aron Rosenthal is a student at the University of Edinburgh and an intern in The Media Lines Press and Policy Student Program.
Every county in the Twin Cities metro area except for Carver is in the substantial transmission category where mask wearing inside is recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A number of rural counties also are in the substantial or high transmission categories.
Just a dozen of the states 87 counties have low community transmission.
The CDC updated masking guidance earlier this week to address growing concerns over the highly transmissible delta variant. The number of Minnesota counties with transmission rates high enough to get an indoor-masking recommendation has roughly doubled in just a few days.
More than 75 percent of new cases in Minnesota are believed to be caused by the delta variant, and rates are even higher in states with low rates of vaccination.
Health officials say nearly all new infections, hospitalizations and deaths are residents who were not fully vaccinated. Theres growing evidence that while breakthrough infections of fully vaccinated people are rare, they still can spread the highly-contagious delta variant.
The growing numbers of infections have created urgency among public health officials to get more people vaccinated.
Gov. Tim Walz announced Thursday, July 29, that the state would pay $100 to anyone who got their first shot by Aug. 15. The incentive is part of a program launched by President Joe Bidens administration and uses federal dollars from the latest coronavirus response bill.
Minnesota has administered nearly 5.9 million doses of coronavirus vaccine to 3.1 million residents. Nearly 69 percent of those 16 and older have gotten at least one shot thats closing in on a goal of 70 percent that Walz hoped to meet July 1.
Minnesota health officials reported five more COVID-19 deaths Friday and 702 new coronavirus infections.
The latest Minnesotans to die from COVID-19 ranged in age from their early 40s to more than 100. Three lived in long-term care and two in private homes.
The states pandemic death toll now is 7,668 with 4,505 fatalities among long-term care residents. Roughly 88 percent of COVID-19 fatalities are seniors.
The 702 new cases reported Friday were the result of about 19,600 tests for a positivity rate of about 3.6 percent. Test positivity has steadily climbed for more than a month. Public health officials say a rate above 5 percent is evidence of dangerous community spread of the virus.
Minnesota has diagnosed 612,701 coronavirus infections since March 2020. Of those who tested positive, 601,097 people, or 98 percent, have recovered enough that they no longer need to be isolated.
There are 231 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 about twice as many as there were 10 days ago including 64 in critical condition. That surge is being driven by the delta variant, which health officials say requires hospitalization in about 9 percent of cases.
Her dad, Mark McCall, 60, died early Friday morning in the Covid ward of a Jacksonville, Florida, hospital where her mom, Sherry McCall, 58, was also being treated for the virus.
The family was already reeling after her brother, Britt McCall, 35, died on Monday.
"It has been one of the most, roughest and hardest experiences that I have ever had to go through in my whole life and I would never, ever wish this on anybody in their family," McCall told CNN. "I mean, I wish it wasn't me, but I sure wouldn't wish it on anybody."
She said her mom was well enough to come home on Friday night but is heartbroken after losing her oldest son and her husband of more than 38 years.
The family was scared to get the vaccine, McCall said, because they have health conditions and didn't know how their bodies would react to the shots.
"We weren't trying to convince anyone not to get it," she said. "We didn't care what choices people made, but unfortunately we made the wrong one."
Last visit with dad
McCall said she tested negative for Covid-19 and has gotten her first vaccination dose since her parents were hospitalized.
She and her fianc were able to suit up in double masks and full PPE on Thursday for one last visit with her dad.
McCall said her dad was tired and on a lot of medication, but he fought hard to remain coherent while she held his hand and rubbed his head.
"I didn't get to hug him and I didn't get to kiss him, but I rubbed him and let him know that I was there and that I was proud of him for pushing as far as he did," she said. "I got to tell him that I loved him and that it was OK and that I got vaccinated. He said he knew and he loved me too."
She said her brother Britt got sick around the Fourth of July and was taken directly to the ICU when he went to the emergency room for treatment.
She said her brother seemed to be doing OK up until he had to go on a ventilator.
"After a couple days, he wanted to go home, so he was trying to do anything he could to get home," she said. "He fought for three weeks to come home and he suffered from complications of Covid and he didn't make it."
She said her mom was immediately hospitalized, but her dad's symptoms weren't as severe so he was told to quarantine at home. He got worse and had to be admitted nine days later.
'People envied how good of a daddy he was'
McCall said her dad was her hero and that he did everything in his power to make sure that she didn't want or need anything -- he'd go and fill her car up with gas even after she was an adult."Oh my God, we were so tight," she said. "We literally had one of the best relationships a father and daughter could have."
Mark was a foreman in the mill shop for Duval County Public Schools and worked with Britt. Sherry is a media specialist in the district.
"Daddy could do anything. He could fix your car -- he wouldn't know anything about it, but he could fix it -- and he was the best craftsman I've ever seen," she said. "I don't know how anybody could ever fill the shoes my dad left. He was loved by so many people, and he still is."McCall said she and her brother, Cason McCall, 31, grew up in Britt's shadow because he was a great athlete with "the most beautiful blue eyes" and was "the kindest, most giving person I've ever met in my life."
She said Britt was their leader and he always knew what to say, "especially in situations like this.""Cason and I are finding it hard to manage because Britt was good at everything and he was good at things like this," she said. "I love Cason, and I feel for him because he's got to be the leader and he's got to protect us. It's just me, him and my momma."
McCall said she has so many regrets and wishes that she could go back in time and make different decisions.
She said her dad was "supposed to be there for so many things," including her wedding next May.
"I wanted him so badly to walk me down the aisle and he won't be there," she said. "And it's all because we were scared. We were scared to get the vaccine and we were scared about everything."
She wants people who think it can't happen to them to know that she thought that too until her family got sick.
"All the people who are scared to get vaccinated, do it!" she said. "Do it for the people you care about because I don't think you want to see them suffer the way we're suffering right now."
The Food and Drug Administration claims to follow the science. So why is it attacking ivermectin, a medication it certified in 1996?
Earlier this year the agency put out a special warning that you should not use ivermectin to treat or prevent COVID-19. The FDAs statement included words and phrases such as serious harm, hospitalized, dangerous, very dangerous, seizures, coma and even death and highly toxic. Any reader would think the FDA was warning against poison pills. In fact, the drug is FDA-approved as a safe and effective antiparasitic.
Ivermectin was developed and marketed by Merck & Co. while one of us (Mr. Hooper) worked there years ago. William C. Campbell and Satoshi Omura won the 2015 Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine for discovering and developing avermectin, which Mr. Campbell and associates modified to create ivermectin.
Ivermectin is on the World Health Organizations List of Essential Medicines. Merck has donated four billion doses to prevent river blindness and other diseases in Africa and other places where parasites are common. A group of 10 doctors who call themselves the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance have said ivermectin is one of the safest, low-cost, and widely available drugs in the history of medicine.
Ivermectin fights 21 viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the cause of Covid-19. A single dose reduced the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in cells by 99.8% in 24 hours and 99.98% in 48 hours, according to a June 2020 study published in the journal Antiviral Research.
By Susan Canfora
The Delaware Division of Public Health is reporting a total of 111,275 positive cases of the coronavirus, bringing the seven-day average of new positive cases to 89.9.
The seven-day average for the percent of positive tests was 3.5 percent by the end of last week, an increase from the 2.5 percent reported on July 20, according to a news release issued by the Delaware Division of Public Health.
Also at the end of last week, 1,830 Delaware residents had died from the virus, including 545 from Sussex County, 903 from New Castle County and 382 from Kent County.
Thirty-two Delaware residents were hospitalized with the virus, four less than last week. Three were critically ill, a decrease of one from last week.
Those who have died ranged from younger than 5 to 104 years old. There were 927 women and 903 men.
So far, 72.3 percent of Delaware residents 18 and older have received at least one dose of the vaccine to protect against the virus and as of July 30, 1,055,977 doses had been administered, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has consistently stated vaccines are the best protection against COVID-19 and variants. See de.gov/covidvaccine.
The Division of Public Health, partnering with the Delaware National Guard, have launched mobile units to offer vaccinations in underserved communities. Medically trained staff will give the Pfizer vaccine to those 12 and older and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to those 18 and older. Mobile units are scheduled to visit Sussex, New Castle and Kent counties next week. See de.gov/getmyvaccine.
As of Friday, July 30, the Division of Public Health has identified several variants in Delaware, through test specimens. They include the United Kingdom variant, South Africa, Brazil, India, New York, California and UK/Nigeria, which was formerly a New York strain.
Virus mutation is common but because these variants may spread more easily, those not vaccinated who are more susceptible to getting the virus and should wear a face mask, wash their hand frequently and be careful when attending large gatherings.
Vaccination reduces the chance of developing the virus or becoming seriously ill from it. So far, 469,873 Delaware residents have been fully vaccinated and of those, there have been 567 breakthrough cases of COVID-19.
As of July 29, there have been 2,785 positive cases of the coronavirus involving long-term care residents, with 825 residents dying, an increase of 65, between mid-May 2020 and late June 2021, according to the news release.
Even those who are fully vaccinated should get tested if they develop symptoms including fever, cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, muscle aches, fatigue, chills, shaking with chills, loss of smell or taste, nausea or vomiting, diarrhea, headache, congestion or runny nose without a known cause such as allergies. Other symptoms can include abdominal pain or lack of appetite. For information about testing, see de.gov/gettested.
We are in an evolutionary arms race with SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus that causes COVID-19, biologists at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom have warned.
Writing in the journal Virulence, they say that relaxing control measures while the majority of the worlds population remains unvaccinated risks the evolution of more transmissible, more virulent variants.
These variants may be more dangerous for children and certain vulnerable groups, such as transplant patients with compromised immune systems, they argue. They may also escape the protection afforded by existing vaccines.
Even in countries where vaccination has reduced the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, high case numbers and large numbers of unvaccinated individuals provide a mixing vessel in which new variants can emerge.
Relaxing restrictions boosts transmission and allows the virus population to expand, which enhances its adaptive evolutionary potential and increases the risk of vaccine resistant strains emerging by a process known as antigenic drift, they write.
Antigenic drift refers to the continual random mutations in a viruss genome that change the proteins on the virus particles surface.
These are the foreign proteins, or antigens, that antibodies recognize. For SARS-CoV-2, the most important is the spike protein that allows the virus to invade cells.
Every change in this protein has the potential to interfere with the immune systems ability to recognize and disrupt the virus, which will reduce the protection provided by a past infection or vaccination.
Like repeatedly rolling dice, a larger number of individuals who have had the virus are more likely to generate a mutation that allows it to evade its future hosts immune defenses.
By the same token, a greater number of cases is also more likely to lead to changes that allow a variant to spread more easily, giving it a competitive edge over all the other strains.
The authors point out that during the course of the pandemic, a succession of more transmissible variants have become the dominant strains within populations.
My main concern is about the high case numbers right now, said co-lead author Dr. Cock Van Oosterhout, Ph.D., who is a professor of evolutionary genetics at the University of East Anglia.
Because these remain high, this allows for continued evolution of [the] virus, and that comes at a risk, including the evolution of more virulent variants, or variants that can escape the vaccine, he told Medical News Today.
He pointed out that although vaccines have reduced the COVID-19 mortality rate in some countries, there remain many clinically vulnerable people at high risk of severe disease or even death if they contract the disease.
This shows we still have a battle on our hands, he said. For that reason, we must not let our guard down in the middle of a co-evolutionary arms race.
In their article, the scientists write:
Children, the clinically extremely vulnerable, such as patients on immunosuppressants, and those who choose not to be vaccinated (or are unable to receive a vaccine) are all placed at an increased risk when relaxing COVID-19 restrictions.
They recommend that control measures such as the mandatory wearing of face masks in indoor public places remain in place until most of the population has received a vaccine.
In addition, the authors believe that relaxing restrictions while children are unvaccinated risks inadvertently promoting the evolution of variants that are better able to infect this group.
This is because natural selection will favor the spread of variants through populations that are not protected by vaccination.
[T]he risks of a more virulent strain spreading into an under-vaccinated population could be more severe. In other words, a policy of not vaccinating children in an otherwise largely vaccinated population could place them at increased risk, they argue.
The scientists conclude:
Slowing down the rate of virus evolution requires us to act fast and decisively, reducing the number of [people with the infection] through the use of vaccines, in combination with other public health policies. [] Relaxing these measures now would be letting our guard down in the middle of the battle, and it would place [us] at a significant disadvantage in the arms race with the virus.
In the U.K., following an exponential rise in cases of the Delta variant in July 2021, case numbers have begun to fall in recent days. This has led to optimism in the British press that the fight against COVID-19 is all but over.
Our point though is that unfortunately the virus isnt a stationary target, it is adapting, producing new variants [that] are better able to transmit in the spaces left available to it, said co-lead author Dr. Kevin Tyler, Ph.D., of Norwich Medical School at the University of East Anglia and the University of Minnesota Twin Cities in St. Paul.
Based on what has happened so far and the huge amount of virus transmission worldwide, it is unlikely that this Delta will be the last wave, he told MNT.
We should be proactive in keeping transmission rates low with all means available and anticipate new waves better able to transmit through unvaccinated and partially immune populations, he added.
For live updates on the latest developments regarding the novel coronavirus and COVID-19, click here.
PHOENIX New numbers from health officials show a dramatic increase in the number of people getting tested for the coronavirus.
Additionally, more people are testing positive for the disease.
On Sunday, the state reported more than 2,000 new cases for the second day in a row.
So COVID-19 numbers in Arizona continue to be on the rise, said Data Analyst Garrett Archer.
Theres no question that the number of COVID-19 infections in the community is rising at a pretty rapid rate, Archer added.
Embry Womens Health which operated dozens of testing sites said they were previously testing 1,000 people a day.
However, in July, the company tested about 4,000 a day.
"And if we follow the same type of curves as places like Japan or Florida, this is only the beginning, said Embry CEO Raymond Embry.
Embry said people not social distancing, not wearing a mask, low vaccine rates and the delta variant may be playing a factor.
Unfortunately, what we're consistently hearing is that people are being exposed to others who have come back for COVID-19 or they've been around somebody who has been sick, said Embry.
Both Embry and the state offer COVID-19 testing at no cost.
The Hawaii Department of Health is collaborating with businesses and organizations across the state to host #HIGotVaccinated events and promotions that encourage all residents ages 12 years and older to get their COVID-19 vaccine. With the help of our partners, COVID-19 vaccines are now easily accessible with walk-ins and extended hours at many vaccination sites.
