Southern New Hampshire University joins a list of colleges across the nation requiring students to receive a COVID-19 vaccination to return to campus in the fall.
In a vaccination update posted on its website, the college said students will need to provide proof of vaccination for COVID-19, or proof of medical or religious exemption to attend classes on its campus for the fall 2021 semester.
President Paul LeBlanc said the college formed a task force at the beginning of the pandemic made up of health professionals and campus life representatives. It has followed public health policy and what colleges and universities are doing.
We were looking at the question of, How do we bring people back to campus in the most safe fashion possible in the fall? he said on Sunday.
The campus has been closed for the 2020-2021 school year. The campus will reopen in the fall, barring the catastrophic, LeBlanc said.
We really, really would like to get everybody back on campus if we could, and as close to normal as we can, he said. The campus typically has about 3,000 people.
The college will work with existing health policies for vaccinations and vaccination exemptions.
One returning student reached out to LeBlanc via email with hesitancy about getting the vaccine and asked for an accommodation. More information will be provided to the student, LeBlanc said.
We are monitoring the social media chat and Id say its overwhelmingly positive, LeBlanc said.
The college said widespread vaccination is critical for its plans to return to campus and help stop the spread of COVID-19.
Recent research shows that COVID-19 vaccines currently available in the United States are safe and effective at preventing serious illness, hospitalization and the spread of COVID-19, the update reads.
The college strongly encourages all on-site and remote employees to get the COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible.
While SNHU is not requiring employees to be vaccinated to be onsite right now, the SNHU COVID-19 task force will continue to monitor health and safety recommendations and may require vaccination in the future for on-site work, the update reads.
Earlier this month, Dartmouth College announced it will require all students showing up for the fall term to prove theyve been vaccinated for COVID-19.
The number of people who say they will take a coronavirus vaccine has increased since the beginning of the year, according to an Ipsos MRBI survey.
Individuals who either would be prepared to get a vaccine, or who have already been vaccinated, now represent 85 per cent of the population, up from three in four people who expressed a willingness in January.
One in 10 respondents were unsure about getting a Covid-19 vaccine, a reduction from the 18 per cent of undecided respondents in January.
The youngest group of adults were the most indecisive, with one in five 18 to 24-year-olds still to make up their mind on the matter.
Broken down, 73 per cent of nearly 1,000 survey respondents signalled this month that they would get a Covid-19 jab, while 12 per cent of the sample had already received a dose. Ipsos MRBI noted that the survey may underestimate the vaccinated cohort, as people in nursing homes, hospitals and other care settings were not interviewed.
While those responding positively increased, there was also a marginal decline in the numbers who would refuse to be inoculated, as well as those who were unsure about participating in the rollout. Just 6 per cent of people said they will not take a vaccine for the virus, down from 7 per cent in January.
People aged between 25 and 34 were least willing to receive the vaccine, with 10 per cent in this cohort saying they would definitely not accept it.
The tracker survey was conducted on behalf of the Irish Pharmaceutical Healthcare Association (IPHA), which represents the international research-based biopharmaceutical industry.
Ipsos MRBI conducted 983 telephone interviews with adults in the first two weeks of April. The sample was nationally representative for age, gender, geography and social class, the survey company said.
Bernard Mallee, a director at the IPHA, said the encouraging results should not give way to complacency.
We must keep facts to the forefront and trust the science, he said. Our industry, working with so many others, is bringing forward safe and effective Covid-19 vaccines in record time . . . Safety and effectiveness are our watchwords.
DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The "COVID-19 Vaccines - Mass Rollouts begin but Hurdles are Halting Progress" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
2021 has started tougher than many expected, with new variants causing a surge in cases and health systems once again overwhelmed globally.
This has prevented economic recovery which seemed to be on the mend in the summer when infection rates had fallen. Global economic growth is still expected to rebound quickly but this is unlikely to be as high as previously estimated, the World Bank has already reduced its forecast to 4% for 2021.
Despite this, the rapid creation of vaccines has offered hope and a way out of the crisis is now visible.
Key Figures
Key Highlights
Scope
Reasons to Buy
Key Topics Covered:
1. OVERVIEW
1.1. Catalyst
1.2. Summary
2. GLOBAL CASES SURGING BUT VACCINE DEVELOPMENT HAS PROVIDED OPTIMISM
2.1. Quick development of vaccines has been a significant scientific feat
2.1.1. Wide range of vaccinology uses has helped the creation of a large number of vaccines
2.1.2. Early release of genome data crucial in early development of vaccines
3. HICCUPS HAVE ALREADY PLAGUED PLANNED VACCINE ROLLOUTS IN MULTIPLE REGIONS
3.1. Delays to regulatory approval and supply issues have disrupted EU vaccine plans
3.1.1. EU and AstraZeneca lock horns over supply issue
3.2. Poor governance has hindered vaccine rollout and procurement
3.2.1. Joe Biden looks to implement an effective vaccination plan after Trump chaos
3.3. Public skepticism of vaccines could reduce uptake.
3.3.1. Hesitancy has links with populism
3.3.2. Public mistrust of authority is rife across the globe
4. COVAX INITIATIVE SET UP TO PROVIDE LOW AND MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES ACCESS TO VACCINE
4.1. Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine to play primary role for COVAX
4.2. Domestic supply remains the priority for countries
4.2.1. WHO warns of a 'catastrophic moral failure'
4.3. Vaccine procurement mirrors worrying pandemic trend
5. ALTERNATIVE VACCINES NOW VIEWED AS AN OPTION DUE TO CURRENT SHORTAGES
5.1. Vaccine provides soft power opportunity for China and Russia
5.1.1. Deals with Chinese and Russian vaccine makers are helping boost vaccine supply
5.1.2. Argentina quick to rollout Sputnik V
6. APPENDIX
6.1. Abbreviations and acronyms
6.2. Sources
6.3. Further reading
7. ASK THE ANALYST
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/ptl8ms
The Food and Drug Administration authorized Abbott's BinaxNOW (seen in photo) and Quidel's QuickVue COVID-19 tests to be sold without a prescription for consumers who want to test themselves repeatedly at home. Ted S. Warren/AP hide caption
The Food and Drug Administration authorized Abbott's BinaxNOW (seen in photo) and Quidel's QuickVue COVID-19 tests to be sold without a prescription for consumers who want to test themselves repeatedly at home.
As of this week, you can buy relatively low-priced COVID-19 rapid tests to take at home. The tests are available through pharmacies and do not require a prescription to buy one.
This bit of good news comes the same week that all people ages 16 and up in the U.S. are eligible to get a vaccine. The Food and Drug Administration authorized Abbott's BinaxNOW and Quidel's QuickVue at-home tests in late March. Both are antigen tests. The BinaxNOW test is currently available and Quidel says it expects to start shipping the QuickVue tests next week.
Antigen tests are less sensitive than genetic PCR tests, which are often considered the "gold standard" of testing, but the antigen tests do provide rapid results and can detect both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the window when someone is infectious. The BinaxNOW tests that are authorized for over-the-counter use are sold in packs of two, so users can test themselves twice, 36 hours apart. The sequential testing is designed to catch an infection that may just be ramping up.
"They are very reliable, if the question that you're asking and the reason that you're taking the test is, am I infectious right now and a risk of transmitting the virus to other people?" says Dr. Michael Mina, a Harvard epidemiologist who has advocated for at-home testing. "These tests work exceptionally well for that question."
The BinaxNOW test retails for $24 for two tests. Mina says he hopes the price will decrease to roughly $1-3 per test as time goes on.
"Right now in the United States, there's no market competition, so I hope that more tests will be authorized to either drive down the prices or that the government could subsidize the price of these tests," says Mina. "Using a test like this is a public health good."
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
On the necessity of at-home COVID-19 tests
I think the landscape has shifted dramatically, in a good way. What we do need today is to have enough tests so that people can know if they have a reason to think that they might be infectious and want convenient access to a test without having to go and wait for days to get a result back from a PCR laboratory. There is still a role for that. ... We're going to see kids get their normal illnesses and these tests are going to be crucial to enable parents and others to be able to know in real-time whether their child has the virus or if they just have a regular childhood cold.
On how these tests can serve as a backup plan
Come fall and winter, should anything go wrong with the vaccines, we need backup plans, and thus far into the pandemic, we have had essentially no backup plans and we've had over half a million deaths as a result. If new variants come around that get around people's immune systems, especially in elderly, whose immune systems a year after they get vaccinated might be waning in terms of their level of protection, we want to be able to limit spread as much as possible. And these tests are our eyes to be able to see where the virus is and whether we're at a risk of spreading it to people who could become sick.
On frustrations regarding the slow rollout of these tests
Had these tests been rolled out in the middle of last year in large numbers, we could have potentially seen hundreds of thousands of fewer deaths by preventing the surges. Instead, we had a lot of testing where nearly all of it was effectively useless to help slow spread [because getting results took so long.] But we can't roll back time, and so I hope that in the future we develop the regulatory framework that would enable tests to be considered in the context of public health versus medicine, and that the speed of getting them authorized would be commensurate with the danger and risks posed by the pandemic upon us.
Andrea Hsu, Justine Kenin and Amy Isackson produced and edited the audio interview. Mano Sundaresan adapted it for Web.
Oregon recorded more coronavirus cases last week than at any point since late January, marking the fourth straight week of sizable gains.
The Oregon Health Authority reported 4,742 confirmed or presumed infections for the week ending Sunday, April 18, up 27% from the previous week. New cases again outpaced the increase in week-to-week testing, which stood at 10%.
Oregon has recorded four consecutive weeks with at least 21% more cases than the previous week. The current week, which concludes Sunday, is also expected to see similar growth.
ZIP codes in southern and central Oregon recorded the most new cases last week, while parts of eastern Oregon saw high per capita spread.
Of note, the 97233 ZIP code in east Portland and Gresham led the metro area in cases last week, as it has through much of the pandemic. It had one of the metro areas lowest vaccination rates, as of last week, according to data released by the state.
The Oregonian/OregonLive is monitoring state coronavirus data, reporting by ZIP code the areas with the greatest weekly changes. Our analysis also highlights the areas with the most new cases in relation to population.
(Click here for an interactive map).
Heres a brief summary of the communities that added the most cases for the week ending Sunday, April 18:
97603 Klamath Falls
This Klamath County ZIP code added 139 cases, raising its tally to 1,804. Thats the 26th most in Oregon and 47th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97756 Redmond
This Deschutes County ZIP code added 136 cases, raising its tally to 1,930. Thats the 18th most in Oregon and 76th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97702 Bend
This Deschutes County ZIP code added 95 cases, raising its tally to 1,894. Thats the 20th most in Oregon and 135th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97701 Bend
This Deschutes County ZIP code added 94 cases, raising its tally to 1,641. Thats the 29th most in Oregon and 274th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97501 Medford
This Jackson County ZIP code added 93 cases, raising its tally to 2,831. Thats the seventh most in Oregon and 46th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97233 east Portland/Gresham (Hazelwood/Glenfair/Centennial/Rockwood)
This Multnomah County ZIP code added 90 cases, raising its tally to 3,402. Thats the second most in Oregon and 18th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97601 Klamath Falls
This Klamath County ZIP code added 83 cases, raising its tally to 1,122. Thats the 57th most in Oregon and 79th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97045 Oregon City
This Clackamas County ZIP code added 83 cases, raising its tally to 2,235. Thats the 15th most in Oregon and 125th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97402 Eugene
This Lane County ZIP code added 83 cases, raising its tally to 1,825. Thats the 24th most in Oregon and 157th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97305 Salem
This Marion County ZIP code added 77 cases, raising its tally to 3,264. Thats the third most in Oregon and 26th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
Heres a brief summary of the communities with at least 20 new cases that added the most new cases per capita for the week ending Sunday, April 18:
97845 John Day
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 85 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, down by about a third from the previous week.
The Grant County ZIP code added 24 new cases, increasing its total to 180.
97603 Klamath Falls
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 47 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up from the previous week.
The Klamath County ZIP code added 139 new cases, increasing its total to 1,804.
97403 Eugene
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 42 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, more than double from the previous week.
The Lane County ZIP code added 56 new cases, increasing its total to 876.
97601 Klamath Falls
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 37 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up slightly from the previous week.
The Klamath County ZIP code added 83 new cases, increasing its total to 1,122.
97756 Redmond
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 35 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up from the previous week.
The Deschutes County ZIP code added 136 new cases, increasing its total to 1,930.
97814 Baker City
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 31 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up slightly from the previous week.
The Baker County ZIP code added 38 new cases, increasing its total to 701.
97055 Sandy
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 29 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up from the previous week.
The Clackamas County ZIP code added 54 new cases, increasing its total to 894.
97503 White City
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 23 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up slightly from the previous week.
The Jackson County ZIP code added 30 new cases, increasing its total to 843.
97233 east Portland/Gresham (Hazelwood/Glenfair/Centennial/Rockwood)
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 22 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up from the previous week.
The Multnomah County ZIP code added 90 new cases, increasing its total to 3,402.
97501 Medford
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 20 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up from the previous week.
The Jackson County ZIP code added 93 new cases, increasing its total to 2,831.
-- Brad Schmidt; bschmidt@oregonian.com; 503-294-7628; @_brad_schmidt
Another Mainer has died as health officials on Saturday reported 373 more coronavirus cases across the state.
The number of coronavirus cases diagnosed in the past 14 days statewide is 5,867. This is an estimation of the current number of active cases in the state, as the Maine CDC is no longer tracking recoveries for all patients. Thats down from 5,805 on Friday.
A woman in her 60s from York County succumbed to the virus, bringing the statewide death toll to 772.
The federal CDC on Friday evening ended a pause on Johnson & Johnson vaccines instituted due to concerns about blood clots, and the Maine CDC said that it will begin using the vaccine again immediately. Doses already in Maine that have been kept in storage are being distributed to vaccine providers, and in a statement Friday the CDC said that it will order more of the vaccine as soon as it is available.
Saturdays report brings the total number of coronavirus cases in Maine to 59,612, according to the Maine CDC. Thats up from 59,239 on Friday.
Of those, 44,532 have been confirmed positive, while 15,080 were classified as probable cases, the Maine CDC reported.
The new case rate statewide Saturday was 2.79 cases per 10,000 residents, and the total case rate statewide was 445.4.
Maines seven-day average for new coronavirus cases is 395.4, down from 422.7 a day ago, down from 445.6 a week ago and up from 200 a month ago. That average peaked on Jan. 14 at 625.3.
The most cases have been detected in Mainers in their 20s, while Mainers over 80 years old make up the majority of deaths. More cases and deaths have been recorded in women than men. For a complete breakdown of the age and sex demographics of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, use the interactive graphic below.
So far, 1,809 Mainers have been hospitalized at some point with COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. Information about those currently hospitalized was not immediately available.
The total statewide hospitalization rate on Saturday was 13.52 patients per 10,000 residents.
Cases have been reported in Androscoggin (6,851), Aroostook (1,620), Cumberland (15,814), Franklin (1,193), Hancock (1,219), Kennebec (5,445), Knox (946), Lincoln (806), Oxford (3,120), Penobscot (5,246), Piscataquis (434), Sagadahoc (1,215), Somerset (1,804), Waldo (812), Washington (823) and York (12,262) counties. Information about where two additional cases were reported wasnt immediately available.
For a complete breakdown of the county by county data, use the interactive graphic below.
An additional 14,511 Mainers have been vaccinated against the coronavirus in the previous 24 hours. As of Saturday, 601,699 Mainers have received a first dose of the vaccine, while 470,514 have received a final dose.
As of Saturday morning, the coronavirus had sickened 31,992,687 people in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as caused 571,200 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.
Complacency with a false sense of security has led to the spike in cases, she says.
With the daily infections accelerating at a blazing speed to reach 3,45,103 on April 23, and the daily deaths stubbornly remaining above 2,000 and rising since April 20, the second wave is growing at an alarming rate resulting in health-care facilities bursting at the seams. The second wave is expected to peak in May. Bhramar Mukherjee, Professor of Epidemiology at University of Michigan in an email says there will be 810 lakhs cases a day in mid-May when it peaks, and 4,500 deaths around May 23. Edited excerpts:
Since April 1, the number of daily cases has been accelerating at a rapid speed. Can it be any reason other than more infectious variants?
We have to be cautious here. Causality can sometimes be established by elimination of alternative explanations. Let us try that argument here.
We all agree that it is not a single factor but a confluence of different factors all coinciding to create the perfect transmission inferno in India. Lack of covid-appropriate behaviour at a time when the country was fully reopening, massive rallies, religious gatherings, cricket matches, use of public transportations, all were taking place largely without proper face covering, throwing caution to the wind. Indoor facilities with air-conditionings like malls, theatres, restaurants were buzzing with people.
We were complacent with a false sense of security, thinking we have conquered COVID-19. Instead of anticipating the silent footsteps of this insidious virus, we let it run wild without any surveillance. Even when we saw the uptick in mid-February, we were dismissive and continued with data denial. The nonchalance, negligence, complacency and hubris cannot be ignored. Colossal mistakes were made by not accelerating vaccination when the virus curve was at its nadir.
Even with all of those features factored in, and allowing for a certain rate of re-infection consistent with existing literature (84% protection from past infections at seven months), the growth rate that we are seeing with cases growing by 8-folds, deaths increasing by 9-fold, and eight States having a reproduction number (R0) around 2 cannot be adequately explained without entertaining the possibility of an intrinsically more transmissible variant. We have data now from different Indian States showing that the double mutant or the UK variant have quickly become dominant strains in Maharashtra or Punjab for example. The increasing number of reports of cluster/family level infections also point to this hypothesis. However, without proper sequencing data over geography and time and proper epidemiological investigations, this evidence is still circumstantial.
Bhramar Mukherjee
Even if the rise is due to new highly transmissive variants, why are we seeing a sudden acceleration since April 1?
This is the nature of exponential growth, the virus creeps in silently and explodes astronomically. The rate parameter of the growth is startling, but the pattern is explainable. This is a feature of the last surges for example in the US and UK. During the 1918 Influenza pandemic, India saw a similar pattern.
We started imposing lockdowns only recently to slow down transmission. Before then we were having not one or two isolated superspreader events but a continuous flow of numerous superspreader events.
The reproduction number is over 2.5 in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and above 2 in Delhi, Rajasthan and West Bengal for a few days now. At this high reproduction number, are these States reporting the expected daily cases?
Our papers have consistently estimated underreporting factors for reporting cases nationally around 10-20. The IHME model is projecting 45 lakhs daily new infections today in India, pointing to a daily underreporting factor of about 15. This factor widely varies across States. Even with inaccurate numbers the relative trends are clear. From all I know, the reality on the ground is much starker than what the numbers show.
I would like to reiterate that suppressing the truth or having artificially deflated numbers does not help anyone. It hinders prudent policymaking, prevents estimating true healthcare needs or need for oxygen supply/ICU beds accurately. This pandemic has turned into this confusing policy pandemonium partially because the data and science have not been presented transparently to the public.
Based on the high reproduction number in these Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat for days, are we seeing the expected number of deaths now?
We have estimated death underreporting by a factor of 2-5 in the first wave. Now with the surge, the reporting infrastructure has probably eclipsed dramatically. So I expect the underreporting of deaths to be massive right now. All reports from burial grounds and crematoriums strongly suggest this possibility.
The fact is, we have a relative idea of the growth but we have no idea about the absolute numbers. I tell my students that this India modelling exercise is to teach them to adopt best statistical practices with the worst possible data. Finally, even if we believe the reported death numbers, the IHME is projecting 664,000 reported deaths by August 1 for India. Each number is a person and I am so heartbroken to see the loss of countless human lives that could have been saved, particularly when in a few months we may have copious vaccine supply.
Misclassification of COVID-19 deaths and attributing the cause of death to other comorbidities has happened to some extent in every country. The excess mortality calculations can provide a holistic evaluation of COVID-related deaths, comparing say year 2020 to historic data. For example, in the U.S. there have been 23% excess deaths than expected from March 2020-January 2, 2021 and 73% of those are attributed to COVID-19.
But in India, medical reporting of deaths and cause of deaths is already a very porous system so it is challenging to do such calculation reliably to quantify COVID-related fatalities in an indirect way. The data deficient infrastructure in India is really hurting us right now.
The seven-day average test positivity rate (TPR) nationally on April 23 was 18.5%. Delhi (30.5%), Chhattisgarh (30.1%), Maharashtra (24.6%), Madhya Pradesh (23.8%), Andhra Pradesh (22%) and West Bengal (20.4%) are reporting higher TPR than the national average. Are the daily fresh cases reported from these States in concordance with the test positivity rate?
These high levels of TPR can capture both increasing prevalence or limited testing. I think in this case it is a combination of both and impossible to unconfound one from the other. Again, I think all arrows point that cases are severely underreported.
How much should the daily tests be in these States to detect cases early and to bring down the TPR?
The testing shortfall can be estimated by setting a target TPR, if you set it at 5% say, that indicates it should be 4-5 times more than current level. You can also be clever with testing strategies by repeated testing with rapid tests instead of all RT-PCR tests to avoid testing bottleneck. India should also allow the home testing kit that we have in the U.S. now produced by Abbott which is inexpensive, easy to use and accurate. You can be clever with all of these strategies, there are so many papers now on optimal allocation of tests with limited budget. You have to innovate and be open to using new efficient tools.
Why are we seeing low TPR in Uttar Pradesh (12.5%), despite the number of tests done being less than in Maharashtra? What are the reasons for this?
You are asking me about a ratio where I neither believe the reported numerator nor the denominator. It could be that patients with obvious COVID-19 symptoms are not even being tested. Selection bias in testing can distort the numbers you get. We have worked on this issue of selective testing. I would like to add that some RT-PCR tests have a high false negative and they may not have the same accuracy to detect new variants if they are optimized for the original strain.
You had tweeted saying Uttar Pradesh's growth in spread is alarming. Our models are failing at this high rate of growth to come up with sensible predictions. Is the growth in spread alarming only in Uttar Pradesh?
No, not just Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar and Delhi are on top of my high alert list. Then comes Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Gujarat, and Karnataka. Kerala is again starting to look worrisome. I feel West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Kerala will need lockdown at some point. Odisha and Assam also have a high R0 value but the projected number of total cases is lower.
When do you think the second wave in India will peak and what will be the daily fresh cases reported at the time it peaks nationally?
All models are projecting a peak for infections in May right now. Deaths will be a lagged indicator by 7-10 days. The IHME is projecting early-May and we are projecting mid-May for infections to peak. We are projecting reported cases at 8-10 lakhs a day with 4,500 deaths, whereas the IHME predicts about 50 lakh infections (reported plus unreported) and 5,500 deaths at the peak of the two curves.
Do you expect a third wave in India? Are we anywhere close to reaching the daily vaccinations needed to avert a third wave?
Depends on how fast we vaccinate. We need to get to 10M vaccines a day (with the assumption of two dose vaccines). To vaccinate 800M adults it will then take another 5 months. If we could procure one dose vaccines like the J & J that will be best.
Very plausible that this will not be the last wave, this will not be the last variant we are seeing. We need to have an agile public health alert system to deal with this situation governed by data, science and humanity. We need to continue to build healthcare capacity, oxygen supply, ICU beds. Sequence reinfections, breakthrough infections.
Preparation and anticipation is the key to prevention. We have had a sluggish start to the vaccination. I am hoping with the new policies (like opening up to 18+ from May 1, approving multiple other vaccines with EUA) we can ramp up and have copious supplies by the summer.
Despite the increasing number of deaths seen since April 1 (from less than 500 daily deaths to over 2,000 on April 20) the case fatality rate is continuously dipping. How do you explain this?
Case fatality rate (CRF) is calculated by taking the ratio of deaths to cases. It could be that deaths have been growing but cases are growing at a faster rate, but please remember that death also is a lagged indicator. This lag is not incorporated in the current calculation. We should really calculate CFR by the number of deaths divided by the number of recovered plus deaths as we do not know what proportion of the active cases will die. A fair comparison could also be dividing todays death by cases reported two weeks ago.
I really want to advocate to look at the absolute numbers of active cases here. It is your number of active cases that determines what proportion will need oxygen/ventilators and drives your plan for gauging the need for healthcare capacity.
In general we do see a lower overall mortality in more recent surges in the U.S. as younger people are infected who have less co-morbidities. We should really compare age-specific mortalities across two waves, not overall mortalities here.
It seems like the released data by the government does not indicate that younger people are more infected in the second wave, though it seems from the same briefing that there is enrichment in disease severity in younger age groups compared to the first wave. I would love to get individual level or age-sex stratified data to study this.
There were five further deaths and 461 new cases of Covid-19 reported by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) on Saturday.
A quarter of eligible adults in the State have now had their first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. The vaccine rollout reached a new record on Thursday when 41,337 additional doses of the vaccine were administered.
Biggest day yet in the #CovidVaccine rollout yesterday with 41,500 doses given out, the Taoiseach tweeted.
It amounts to more than the equivalent of 1 per cent of the adult population of 3.8 million receiving a dose in a single day.
Michel Martin said 25 per cent of eligible adults have so far received their first dose (948,000) while 10 per cent were fully vaccinated with two doses (381,000).
The number of vaccines administered has steadily increased during the week from 11,028 on Monday, 21,478 on Tuesday and 34,863 on Wednesday and 41,337 on Thursday.
The vaccines, vaccinators, and volunteers are making a real difference, Mr Martin tweeted.
The latest figures released by Nphet bring the total number of people who have died with Covid-19 to 4,872 and the total number of cases to date is 246,204. The five-day moving average of daily Covid cases is at 460. Of the cases notified on Saturday 75 percent are under 45 with a median age of 28.
The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital has fallen to 162, with 46 in ICU, the figures show. There have been nine additional hospitalisations in the past 24 hours. It is the lowest number in hospital with Covid-19 since October 8th last year.
Commenting on the hospitalisation figures, HSE chief Paul Reid said it was important that we continue this dual approach and we can all soon get back to much of what we value.
Elsewhere there has been one further death of a patient who previously tested positive for Covid-19 in Northern Ireland. Another 80 people have tested positive for the virus in the last 24-hour reporting period. On Saturday morning, there were 64 confirmed Covid-19 patients in hospital, six of whom were in ICU.
There was also boost the the vaccine programme last night with news of improved supply of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The State is set to receive a large delivery of 165,000 AstraZeneca vaccines next week that had earlier been postponed until May.
AstraZeneca now expects to hit its European delivery target of 20 million doses this month, and 70 million in the second quarter, with Ireland receiving a pro rata share of about 1 per cent.
The Health Service Executive, which has complained about repeated changes to the companys delivery schedule, said last night it was more hopeful than we were of supplies arriving next week.
The latest change in the supply plan for the AstraZeneca vaccine has been made possible after the European Medicines Agency licensed the manufacture of its vaccine in a plant in Asia.
The European Medicines Agency has reiterated that the benefits of AstraZenecas vaccine outweigh any risks, as part of a detailed guidance into rare blood clots to help individual nations determine the shots use.
On Saturday the HSE opened its online vaccination bookings for 63 year olds, who will be offered the AstraZeneca doses.More than 170,000 people have registered since the portal went live last week.
The AstraZeneca shot has been limited in the State to people aged over 60 due to reports of rare blood clots connected with the vaccine.
The National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) is considering whether to broaden its use in the population. .
There is an expectation in Government that the Niac will also authorise the Johnson and Johnson single-dose vaccine for use next week, paving the way for a further acceleration of the programme. Sources drew encouragement from Germanys decision not to impose limits on the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, while last night, the US Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determined that the use of the vaccine should resume following a 10-day pause.
Mr Reid said that if the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is approved the HSE would begin administering the shots next week. He said the organisation would have 40,000 doses of the single-dose vaccine by next week.
Mr Martin said that approval to use the Johnson & Johnson vaccine from the Niac would really advance the programme of vaccinations.
There are concerns in Government that a restrictive decision would hit public support for the vaccine programme and damage the wider effort to suppress the virus.
Meanwhile, momentum continues to grow towards reopening economic and social life and officials are working on options for Ministers to consider next week. There was significant relief among Ministers at the broadly positive outlook presented by chief medical officer Tony Holohan after his return to frontline duties this week, according to sources.
It is expected that the Government will unveil the reopening measures next Thursday or Friday, after a special Cabinet meeting.
Monday will bring several changes in Covid restrictions including that underage non-contact outdoor training can recommence in pods of 15 or fewer. Many outdoor sports facilities can reopen, such as pitches, golf courses and tennis courts. While the reopening of zoos, open pet farms and heritage sites will be allowed. The maximum attendance at funerals will increase to 25.
Over the last two weeks, Massachusetts reported another 24,036 COVID-19 cases, down from the 26,717 confirmed over the prior 14 days, according to the latest Department of Public Health community-level data.
The latest totals are based on data analyzed between April 4 and April 17.
Percent positivity also declined over the last two weeks, to 2.3% from the 2.48% recorded during the last 14-day update.
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And as of data available Thursday, there are now 48 communities at high risk for COVID spread. Last week, the number of cities and towns at high risk was 59.
Officials began releasing the number of confirmed cases among children and teenagers several weeks ago. On Wednesday, 1,223 cases were confirmed in children younger than four over the last 14 days, down from 1,235 reported last week. Officials reported 1,400 infections in children between the ages of 5 and 9, down from 1,469 since the last update.
And 1,696 infections were confirmed in children between the ages of 10 and 14, which is down from 1,816 reported on April 14, according Wednesdays data. There were also 2,481 teenagers between the ages of 15 and 19 infected with COVID over the last two weeks, down from 2,696 since the last update.
This week, 5,046 cases were confirmed among 20-somethings, down from the 5,942 reported last week.
While the distribution of new cases varies week-to-week, the slight reduction in cases among younger age groups follows what for several weeks now has been overall decline in COVID activity statewide. Hospitalizations, active infections and percent positivity have declined over the past seven days after several weeks of heightened concern over whether vaccinations are keeping pace with the rising numbers.
The decline in infections also suggests progress is being made in vaccinating elderly populations, which have seen fewer and fewer new infections and far fewer deaths in recent days. As of Thursday, nearly 2.2 million Massachusetts residents are fully vaccinated, and 5.4 million doses have been administered to date.
State health officials confirmed another 1,431 new COVID-19 cases and 17 virus-related fatalities on Thursday. On Monday, Massachusetts opened COVID vaccinations to all residents ages 16 and older.
Here is a breakdown of the cities and towns at high risk by county:
Barnstable County: Brewster, Dennis, Harwich, Yarmouth
Berkshire County: Adams
Bristol County: Berkley, Fall River, Freetown, New Bedford, Rehoboth, Seekonk, Swansea, Taunton, Westport
Dukes County: Edgartown, Oak Bluffs, Tisbury
Essex County: Haverhill, Lawrence, Lynn, Methuen, Peabody
Hampden County: Chicopee, Hampden, Holyoke, Ludlow, Palmer, Southwick, Springfield
Middlesex County: Ayer, Dracut, Lowell, Townsend
Nantucket County: Nantucket
Norfolk County: Bellingham, Plainville
Plymouth County: Brockton, Carver, Plymouth, Wareham, West Bridgewater
Suffolk County: Revere
Worcester County: Sterling, Sutton, Templeton, Upton, West Boylston, Winchendon
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