Here is The Oregonians weekly look at the numbers behind the states economy.View past installments here.
Anna VonRosenstiels customers vanished last March when the pandemic hit and she wasnt sure they would ever come back. So she shut down her Southeast Portland ceramics shop, laid off her four employees and began contemplating the bleak prospect she might never reopen.
Instead of breaking down, though, VonRosenstiel opted to reboot.
I basically decided I would spend every moment of the day just reconfiguring the business, said the 42-year-old shop owner.
She began by putting free clay outside her shuttered shop on Southeast Division, Carter & Rose, just to stir interest among prospective customers. Then she spruced up her website and started posting Instagram tutorials on how to make ceramics.
Everybody was craving things to do and ways to stay connected in an uncertain time, she recalls. Her wholesale business began taking off, VonRosenstiel obtained a federal relief loan to help her reopen the store in June and start hiring again. Her husband, laid off last spring, plans to open a food cart in the space next door.
If someone asked me a year ago what a year from nows going to look like, I think I would have just burst into tears, VonRosenstiel said. Its the opposite of that. And Im very humbled and grateful.
This coming Tuesday is the first anniversary of Gov. Kate Browns stay-home order, which shuttered offices and businesses across the state. By the time the governor stepped in many businesses had already shut down and businesses were laying off workers by the tens of thousands.
The whirlwind VonRosenstiels family endured over the past 12 months is emblematic of Oregons larger struggles during the first year of the pandemic recession.
It was the steepest and deepest downturn on record. Nearly 260,000 Oregonians lost their jobs in the first month alone, nearly 1 in every 8 workers statewide. Low-wage workers on the front lines, in the service industry especially, have suffered the most.
And yet the recession has been far less brutal than economists expected at the outset. Oregons jobless rate never approached the 20% some forecast. State revenues rose despite the downturn, the vast majority of businesses weathered the storm and economists are increasingly hopeful of a sharp upturn this spring.
I think the recovery, once we start opening up, could be pretty quick, said Portland economist Eric Fruits. But it could also be uneven.
Adaptation
Think back to the state of commerce a year ago: A sudden economic catastrophe.
Panic buyers were emptying grocery shelves. McMenamins laid off almost everyone as it shuttered its theaters, hotels and brewpubs throughout the Northwest. Emily Powell warned darkly that she was doing everything within my power to keep Powells alive even as she closed down every one of its famous bookstores.
Stroll down your supermarket aisle today and theres plenty of toilet paper. Movies are playing again at the McMenamins Bagdad Theater. Powells cavernous downtown store is back open and restaurants are welcoming diners back inside all over the state.
ONE YEAR SINCE OREGONS STAY HOME ORDER
While the pandemic is in steep decline, its certainly not over. And yet many businesses have adapted.
They really swung into action to make the accommodations to keep doing business, said Fruits, who teaches at Portland State University and works with the libertarian Cascade Policy Institute.
With masks, plastic shields in the checkout line and limits on the number of customers inside a store or on an assembly line, Fruits said businesses found ways to get by. Officer workers learned how to do their jobs from home. Factories reconfigured their assembly lines.
Hopefully in the future we wont have to have these huge, economy-wide shutdowns, Fruits said. Hopefully people can know what the right thing to do is.
DISPARATE IMPACT
While the vast majority of businesses adapted to the pandemic, and some thrived, many never had the opportunity. Restaurants, bars, gyms, bowling alleys and skating rinks among others faced extended closure orders as the pandemic spiked last spring and again in the fall.
The industry lost about half its jobs, poof, in two months time, said Gail Krumenauer, economist with the Oregon Employment Department. Thats unreal.
A third of Oregons leisure and hospitality jobs still havent returned. Thats typically low-wage work, often part time.
The sector pays less than $25,000 a year on average, which means people will rarely have savings to cushion them when their incomes disappear. And workers in those fields are disproportionately women, or members of diverse ethnic or racial groups.
A year into the pandemic, Oregon counts more than 142,000 as unemployed nearly double the number a year ago. Another 100,000 have received benefits through a new program Congress created for self-employed workers.
Those expanded jobless benefits sustained many, despite long delays in payments, but nearly 1 in 5 tenants have fallen behind on their rent. Estimates suggest that renters owed $250 million or more at the end of last year.
I call it the debt hangover, said Fruits, the Portland State economist. While federal, state and local eviction moratoriums have kept people in their homes, unpaid rent keeps piling up.
I think thats going to be a huge hangover, Fruits said, and theres going to be no way to resolve that without someone getting hurt, whether its the property owners or the tenants.
Closed schools and family health issues put particular pressure on women, who represented a high proportion of self-employed workers seeking aid and who were far more likely to be unemployed during the first months of the pandemic.
That gap in the jobless rate has eroded, but one main reason is that women are dropping out of the workforce altogether so theyre no longer counted in the standard unemployment statistics. Thats a broader trend that reflects worrying signals of nascent economic malaise.
Theres still persistent, deep unemployment or underemployment, Krumenauer said. Theres a lot of people who would like to be working more hours than they are right now.
NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS
Oregon has paid out an unprecedented $8 billion in jobless benefits in the past year, a decades worth of aid in just 12 months. Nearly 570,000 Oregonians have received benefits since the pandemic hit, with most of the money coming from expanded benefits funded by Congress.
Administrative failures at the employment department delayed many workers benefits for weeks or months. Yet Josh Lehner, with the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, said federal support kept a terrible situation from turning into an abysmal one.
Outside of wartime we have never seen anything like this, Lehner said. In addition to the jobless benefits, the federal government awarded $7 billion in forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans to 66,000 businesses, with billions more on the way after Congress renewed the aid in December.
Oregonians are now finding billions of dollars more in their bank accounts through a new stimulus program approved this month. Altogether, Lehner said the federal support amounts to a fifth or more of the gross domestic product and means a lot of the last years pain wont last.
Thats a tremendous amount of money, basically over the course of the year, Lehner said. It turns out that if you help households and businesses to such a degree you get surprisingly little permanent damage, economic scarring.
Oregons job losses tracked the national downturn early in the pandemic, but then faded some last winter as the state took extreme measures to contain resurgent infections. Oregons restrictions on restaurants, bars and gyms have been stricter than in most states but its death rate has been substantially lower.
Since the pandemic hit, Oregon has lost 55 people to COVID-19 for each of its 100,000 residents. Thats a third the national figure; only four states had lower death rates.
Its impossible to know, at least at this point, how much Oregons restrictions contained the pandemic and how much other factors played a role. And Lehner said theres no easy way to weigh the economic costs of business restrictions against the number of lives saved.
Regardless, Lehner said that the pandemic appears in retreat. Infections and deaths are at their lowest rates since last summer and vaccines are giving hope that Oregon may avoid any more spikes.
Some unforeseen obstacle could still trip up the recovery, Lehner said, but with more federal cash on the way and Oregonians eager to spend what they saved, he said theres every reason to believe the worst of the recession is behind us.
The stage is set for really strong growth. Incomes are up and weve seen relatively little of that economic scarring to date, Lehner said. So we think there will be quite a strong economic recovery.
-- Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | twitter: @rogoway |
This story will be updated.
Another 178 coronavirus cases have been reported across Maine, state health officials said Monday.
The number of coronavirus cases diagnosed in the past 14 days statewide is 2,716. This is an estimation of the current number of active cases in the state, as the Maine CDC is no longer tracking recoveries for all patients. Thats up from 2,670 on Sunday.
No new deaths were reported Monday, leaving the statewide death toll at 729.
Mondays report brings the total number of coronavirus cases in Maine to 48,642, according to the Maine CDC. Thats up from 48,464 on Sunday.
Of those, 37,559 have been confirmed positive, while 11,083 were classified as probable cases, the Maine CDC reported.
The new case rate statewide Monday was 1.33 cases per 10,000 residents, and the total case rate statewide was 363.43.
Maines seven-day average for new coronavirus cases is 207.3, up from 206.6 a day ago, up from 183.6 a week ago and up from 131.6 a month ago. That average peaked on Jan. 14 at 625.3.
The most cases have been detected in Mainers in their 20s, while Mainers over 80 years old make up the majority of deaths. More cases and deaths have been recorded in women than men. For a complete breakdown of the age and sex demographics of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, use the interactive graphic below.
So far, 1,630 Mainers have been hospitalized at some point with COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. Information about those who are currently hospitalized wasnt immediately available.
The total statewide hospitalization rate on Monday was 12.18 patients per 10,000 residents.
Cases have been reported in Androscoggin (5,116), Aroostook (1,362), Cumberland (13,569), Franklin (966), Hancock (999), Kennebec (4,111), Knox (768), Lincoln (629), Oxford (2,408), Penobscot (4,387), Piscataquis (373), Sagadahoc (942), Somerset (1,322), Waldo (675), Washington (755) and York (10,259) counties. Information about where an additional case was reported wasnt immediately available.
For a complete breakdown of the county by county data, use the interactive graphic below.
As of Monday morning, the coronavirus had sickened 29,819,107 people in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as caused 542,359 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.
(March 22, 2021) Three new coronavirus cases were reported on Nantucket Monday morning, increasing to 1,280 the total number of positive tests on the island since the pandemic began a year ago.
The results also included 22 negatives. Eighty-nine new COVID-19 cases have been reported on the island since March 1, and 18 in the past week. Health officials attributed the most recent surge to school-break-related travel. The public schools' winter break ended three weeks ago.
People ignored the travel orders and traveled anyway, Nantucket health director Roberto Santamaria said. This is the consequence of that.
Some of those who returned to the island infected with the virus then passed it on to others, he added.
"Though the people who were traveling may not be showing symptoms, they passed it on to other people, which has nowresulted in a secondary outrbeak. We must reiterate, mask orders, travel orders, social distancing, workplace orders and safety regulations are there not only to protect you, but to protect those who you come in contact with," Santamaria said.
"It is an understatement that no surge in cases is welcome. We must also recognize we are going to be particularly vulnerable in the coming weeks as the number of individuals on Nantucket climbs dramatically," Nantucket Cottage Hospital president and CEO Gary Shaw said in a statement to the community Friday.
"If the surge is not controlled it is not inconceivable that measures taken last year to stop the spread be reconsidered by the Department of Public Health, the town, and our Board of Health. Bells are ringing that we might listen and reflect on curbing behaviors that spread the virus."
Click hereto read Shaw's complete statement.
The 18 new cases reported in the past week represent a 4.7 percent positivity rate.
"Our biggest line of defense is you working together with us to help prevent the spread of this heinous virus. We are in the 24th mile of a full marathon. The end is near, but we cant quit now," Santamaria said in a recent Twitter message.
There have been four COVID-19 Nantucket deaths since last March, the most recent Dec. 22, 2020, a man in his mid-80s.
The second round of Phase 2 vaccinations, which prioritize those 65 and older and those whose health conditions pose a greater risk for serious COVID-19 illness, began in early March. Appointments for teachers, childcare workers and school staff opened March 11, and front-line workers and those over 60 are eligible ot begin scheduling appointments today. The state last week rolled out its plan for vaccination of the general public, which is scheduled to begin April 19. (Click here for story.
As of Monday, 4,105 first doses and 1,483 second doses of vaccine have been administered on Nantucket.
The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on March 8 issued its first set of guidelines for fully-vaccinated people.Click herefor more.
Free asymptomatic testing under the state's "Stop the Spread" program is administered indoors at the VFW on New South Road from 8-10 a.m. Monday-Saturday, but is limited to 75 tests per day.
Symptomatic testing is provided at the hospital's drive-through portico on Prospect Street from 7:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m. Monday through Friday.
Hospital staff have collected 28,433 nasal swabs for testing since the start of the pandemic. In addition to the 1,280 positive tests 4.5 percent of the total number returned 27,150 have come back negative, and three are awaiting results.
The Board of Health on Dec. 11, 2020 established a COVID-19 task force to better enforce and raise awareness of coronavirus regulations (Click herefor story).
Gov Charlie Baker late last month lifted the 9:30 p.m. statewide restaurant closing time, and in early March increased capcacity limits for restaurants, theaters, museums and other indoor locations. Additional capacity increases took effect today (Click herefor story).
Part-time in-class learning for Nantucket public-school students resumed Jan. 14 after being remote only since before Christmas. State officials are targetting April 5 for a full return to in-class learning for elementary-school students, and later in April for middle- and high-school students.
"I ask everyone on Nantucket to take personal responsibility and do all you can to reduce the potential for transmission in our community. That means wearing masks, staying physically distant, washing your hands, and not hosting or attending gatherings with people outside your immediate households," Shaw said recently.
"Most of all, we want our community to stay healthy, we want our economy to remain open, we want our public schools to be able to return to in-person learning. To that end, we must work together and apply the simple preventive measures that will keep this situation from spiraling out of control."
There have been 1,217 coronavirus cases confirmed on Nantucket in the past six months, beginning Sept. 9, 2020 with a spike linked to workers in the trades, followed by a second surge in late September tied to a church function in which a communal meal was shared.
A third spike in early November was again tied to workers in the trades, followed by significant surges related to holiday gatherings and travel at Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's.
Prior to Sept. 9, Nantucket had one of the lowest COVID-19 rates in the state per 100,000 population, and the fewest confirmed cases of any county in Massachusetts.
The state's current travel order requires all those entering Massachusetts from out of state, excluding Hawaii, to quarantine for two weeks or produce a negative COVID-19 test from the most recent 72 hours upon arrival. Failure to comply could result in a daily $500 fine.
The Board of Health on Oct. 6, 2020 voted to require all people on publicly-accessible property across the island to wear a mask, not just downtown and in Sconset, as was previously mandated, and limited public gatherings to 10 people or less indoors and outside
It decided in mid-November against tightening restrictions to limit the total number of workers on a job site to six in an attempt to stop the spread (Click herefor story).
Nantucket Cottage Hospital does not have an intensive-care unit and only five ventilators. Shaw has said patients in need of acute respiratory care would be transferred to mainland hospitals if at all possible.
The criteria for symptomatic drive-up testing at the hospital includes at least one of the following signs or symptoms consistent with a viral respiratory syndrome: subjective/documented fever, new sore throat, new cough, new runny nose/nasal congestion, new shortness of breath, new muscle aches or anosmia (new loss of sense of smell). Close contacts of COVID-19 positive patients and pre-procedure patients can also be tested.
For more information about symptomatic and asymptomatic testing,click here.
Click hereto sign up for Above the Fold, The Inquirer and Mirrors twice-weekly newsletter, bringing you both the news and a slice of island life, curated with content created by Nantuckets only team of professionally-trained journalists.
For up-to-the-minute information on Nantuckets breaking news, boat and plane cancellations, weather alerts, sports and entertainment news, deals and promotions at island businesses and more, Sign up for Inquirer and Mirror text alerts.Click Here
The number of identified coronavirus cases unsurprisingly climbed upward last week following a six-month low for Oregon.
The Oregon Health Authority recorded 2,272 confirmed or presumed infections for the week ending Sunday, March 14, up 31% from the previous week. Cases climbed despite a 27% decrease in week-to-week testing.
Oregons rise wasnt unexpected, however the previous weeks case count was the lowest since late September. Identified cases over the past four weeks have bounced up and down but generally have plateaued.
With more contagious variants circulating and businesses open for business, officials have warned theres risk for renewed spread. But deaths have plummeted in Oregon since the winter peak and climbing vaccinations will limit the number of people infected with a severe case of COVID-19.
Last week, ZIP codes in southern Oregon once again recorded the most new cases. Higher counts returned to the Portland area, as well.
The Oregonian/OregonLive is monitoring state coronavirus data, reporting by ZIP code the areas with the greatest weekly changes. Our analysis also highlights the areas with the most new cases in relation to population.
(Click here for an interactive map).
Heres a brief summary of the communities that added the most cases for the week ending Sunday, March 14:
97526 Grants Pass
This Josephine County ZIP code added 44 cases, raising its tally to 1,101. Thats the 52nd most in Oregon and 156th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97527 Grants Pass
This Josephine County ZIP code added 42 cases, raising its tally to 1,064. Thats the 55th most in Oregon and 173rd most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97501 Medford
This Jackson County ZIP code added 38 cases, raising its tally to 2,545. Thats the eighth most in Oregon and 44th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97301 Salem
This Marion County ZIP code added 38 cases, raising its tally to 3,482. Thats the most in Oregon and 32nd most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97230 east Portland/Gresham (Argay Terrace/Russell/Hazelwood/Wilkes)
This Multnomah County ZIP code added 36 cases, raising its tally to 2,463. Thats the ninth most in Oregon and 33rd most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97305 Salem
This Marion County ZIP code added 34 cases, raising its tally to 3,064. Thats the third most in Oregon and 22nd most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97045 Oregon City
This Clackamas County ZIP code added 33 cases, raising its tally to 1,955. Thats the 15th most in Oregon and 120th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97233 east Portland/Gresham (Hazelwood/Glenfair/Centennial/Rockwood)
This Multnomah County ZIP code added 33 cases, raising its tally to 3,157. Thats the second most in Oregon and 18th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97504 Medford
This Jackson County ZIP code added 31 cases, raising its tally to 2,129. Thats the 13th most in Oregon and 75th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
97420 Coos Bay
This Coos County ZIP code added 29 cases, raising its tally to 771. Thats the 75th most in Oregon and 195th most per capita since the start of the pandemic.
Heres a brief summary of the communities with at least 20 new cases that added the most new cases per capita for the week ending Sunday, March 14:
97526 Grants Pass
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 12 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, down slightly from the previous week.
The Josephine County ZIP code added 44 new cases, increasing its total to 1,101.
97527 Grants Pass
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 12 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up slightly from the previous week.
The Josephine County ZIP code added 42 new cases, increasing its total to 1,064.
97470 Roseburg
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 11 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, down by about a quarter from the previous week.
The Douglas County ZIP code added 22 new cases, increasing its total to 549.
97801 Pendleton
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 11 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up from the previous week.
The Umatilla County ZIP code added 22 new cases, increasing its total to 1,650.
97420 Coos Bay
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 10 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, down by about a third from the previous week.
The Coos County ZIP code added 29 new cases, increasing its total to 771.
97230 east Portland/Gresham (Argay Terrace/Russell/Hazelwood/Wilkes)
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 9 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, more than double from the previous week.
The Multnomah County ZIP code added 36 new cases, increasing its total to 2,463.
97220 east Portland (Sumner, Parkrose, Parkrose Heights)
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 9 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, more than double from the previous week.
The Multnomah County ZIP code added 26 new cases, increasing its total to 1,669.
97502 Central Point
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 9 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, down from the previous week.
The Jackson County ZIP code added 25 new cases, increasing its total to 1,220.
97501 Medford
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 8 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, down by about a third from the previous week.
The Jackson County ZIP code added 38 new cases, increasing its total to 2,545.
97233 east Portland/Gresham (Hazelwood/Glenfair/Centennial/Rockwood)
This ZIP code recorded new confirmed or presumed infections of 8 per 10,000 people during the week ending Sunday, up sharply from the previous week.
The Multnomah County ZIP code added 33 new cases, increasing its total to 3,157.
-- Brad Schmidt; bschmidt@oregonian.com; 503-294-7628; @_brad_schmidt
Relman agrees that in the absence of conclusive evidence, the message on origins should be We dont know. After the Lancet statement, and then a subsequent paper on SARS-CoV-2s origins written by scientists who concluded that we do not believe any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible, he found himself increasingly disheartened by those who he claimed had seized on a spillover scenario, despite an amazing absence of data. Relman says he felt he had to push back. So he wrote a widely disseminated opinion piece in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences claiming that a lab origin was among several potential scenarios; that conflicts of interest among those on all sides of the issue had to be revealed and addressed; and that uncovering SARS-CoV-2s true origins was essential for preventing another pandemic. Efforts to investigate the origins, he wrote, have become mired in politics, poorly supported assumptions and assertions, and incomplete information.
One of the first media calls after the opinion piece was published came from Laura Ingraham at Fox News, Relman says. He declined the interview.
When asked why he thought Daszak and others pushed so strongly against the possibility of a lab leak, Relman says they may have wanted to deflect perceptions of their work as endangering humankind. With so-called gain of function experiments, for instance, scientists genetically manipulate viruses to probe their evolutionsometimes in ways that boost virulence or transmissibility. This sort of research can reveal targets for drugs and vaccines for viral diseases, including covid-19, and was used at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in studies showing that certain bat coronaviruses were just a few mutations away from being able to bind to human ACE2. A 2015 paper in Nature Medicine notes that the potential to prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks must be weighed against the risk of creating more dangerous pathogens.
Relman proposes that among those trying to suppress the lab-release hypothesis, there might have been far too much protection of ones self and ones peers before allowing a really important question to receive a hearing. And scientists collaborating with researchers in China might worry about their working relationship if they say anything other than This threat comes from nature.
Other scientists say opposition to the lab-leak hypothesis was grounded more in a general disbelief that SARS-CoV-2 could have been deliberately engineered. This is what became politicized, Perlman says. As to whether the virus may have escaped after evolving naturally, he says that is more difficult to rule in or rule out.
FEATURECHINA VIA AP IMAGES
In an email message last week, Relman added that the question may never be fully settled. From the natural-spillover angle, it would take a confirmed contact between a proven naturally infected host species (e.g., bat) and a human or humans who can be shown with reliable, confirmed time-and-place details to have become infected as a result of the encounter, ahead of any other known human cases, Relman says, and then shown to have passed on the infection to others. As for the lab-leak scenario, there would need to be confirmed evidence of possession of the virus ahead of the first cases, and a likely mechanism for escape into humansall of which become less likely with the passage of time. Finding the possible immediate parents of SARS-CoV-2 would help to understand the recent genomic/evolutionary history of the virus, he adds, but not necessarily how and where that history occurred.
As it stands now, pandemic preparedness faces two simultaneous fronts. On the one hand, the world has experienced numerous pandemic and epidemic outbreaks in the last 20 years, including SARS, chikungunya, H1N1, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, several Ebola outbreaks, three outbreaks of norovirus, Zika, and now SARS-CoV-2. Speaking of coronaviruses, Ralph Baric, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, says its hard to imagine there arent variants in bats with mortality rates approaching MERSs 30% that also have a transmissibility that is much more efficient. He adds That is terrifying. Baric is emphatic that genetic research with viruses is essential to staying ahead of the threat.
Yet according to Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, lab-release dangers are growing as well. The risk increases in proportion with the number of labs handling bioweapons and potential pandemic pathogens (more than 1,500 globally in 2010), he says, many of them, like the Wuhan lab, located in urban areas close to international airports. The most dramatic expansion has occurred in China during the last four yearsdriven as an arms-race-style reaction to biodefense expansion in the US, Europe, and Japan, Ebright wrote in an email to Undark.China opened two new BSL-4 facilities, in Wuhan and in Harbin, in the last four years, he added, and has announced plans to establish a network of hundreds of new BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs.
Meanwhile, squabbles over SARS-CoV-2s origins continue, some of them heated. During a recent exchange on Twitter, Chan was compared to a QAnon supporter and an insurrectionist. A few months prior, she had tweeted about issues of research integrity and stated that if the actions of scientists and journal editors were to obscure the origins of the virus, then those individuals would be complicit in the deaths of millions of people. (Chan has since deleted that tweet, which she says she regrets posting.)
Tempers are high, Nielsen says, making it hard for qualified scientists to have any sort of serious discussion.
In Australia, Petrovksy says he is trying to stay above the fray. He says he was warned to avoid speaking publicly about his modeling findings. A lot of people advised us, Even if its good science, dont talk about it. It will have a negative impact on your vaccine development. You will get attacked; they will try to discredit you. But in the end, thats not what happened, says Petrovsky. Last year, amid the origins debate, his team became the first in the Southern Hemisphere to take a vaccine for covid-19 into human clinical trials.
If we are at the point where all science is politicized and no one cares about truth and only being politically correct, he says, we may as well give up and shut down and stop doing science.
Update: The story has been amended to indicate that more than one cave worker exposed to bat feces in Yunnan Province may have died.
Charles Schmidt is a recipient of the National Association of Science Writers Science in Society Journalism Award. His work has appeared in Science, Nature Biotechnology, Scientific American, Discover Magazine, and the Washington Post, among other publications.
This article was originally published on Undark. Read the original article.
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) last year released specific advice on how healthcare organizations should defend themselves against cyber-attacks in light of the increased digital traffic associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The advisory, which was jointly written with the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), highlights the need for advanced security measures as advanced persistent threat (APT) groups target healthcare and essential services involved in national and international COVID-19 responses.
The report identifies the key methods APTs use to perform COVID-19-related cyber-attacks, predominantly highlighting the vulnerability of pharmaceutical and research organizations and other entities with access to sensitive COVID-19 data, particularly through malicious campaigns known as password spraying. The advisory also lays out some suggestions of how healthcare organizations could mitigate these threats. These seek to minimize the risk of password compromising attacks by enforcing stricter institutional password security through, for instance, comprehensive security software, password screening and adding multi-factor authentication (MFA) to login credentials.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, there has been a slew of attacks by cyber-criminals exploiting the amplified sense of uncertainty and fear associated with the disease. The reasons for these attacks have run the gamut: commercial gain, espionage, poaching bulk personal information, response manipulation through misinformation and theft of intellectual property, to name a few. Given the primacy of the pandemic, cyber-criminals will likely be interested in gathering COVID-19-specific information, leaving organizations such as the NHS, integral to the pandemic response, particularly vulnerable to attack.
Password Spraying
One particularly effective and much used line of attack has been through password spraying. Password spraying is the process in which cyber-attackers use a list of commonly used passwords to try and infiltrate end user accounts. Once one account has been successfully hacked, attackers are able to access linked accounts where certain credentials are shared or attempt to infiltrate other users accounts laterally, creating a knock-on compromising effect.
Password spraying is particularly effective in large-scale organizations as there is a high chance that, within a large set of accounts, some users will use predictable, easy-to-crack passwords. In a recent research study, NCSC found that 75% of participating organizations had accounts using the 1000 most commonly-found passwords amongst their ranks.
This position is also reflected in the case of the Greater Manchester West Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, which took the initiative against potential threats of cyber-attack even before the pandemic by implementing a Breached Password Protection solution which enabled the NHS Trust to block weak passwords for Cyber Essentials Plus accreditation, while enjoying the added benefit of multiple policies and clear end user feedback. Head of ICT Andre de Araujo, who was in charge of the move, highlighted the vulnerable position the Trust was in going into the change: We ran a script to look for hashes that could be cracked. We had hundreds of users with passwords that included the day of the week, month or even the word password, often with a number at the end or an exclamation point. It was interesting to see how many people follow the same patterns, resulting in easy-to-guess passwords.
Threat Mitigation
A key recommendation given by the NCSC to protect against password spraying is to ensure that there is good institutional policy in place to mitigate the threat of infiltration. Although suggesting available pragmatic guidance to employees on how to choose good, secure passwords, there is a strong emphasis on the implementation of security frameworks that block the adoption of high-probability passwords in the first place, as well as offering up solutions such as MFA and protective monitoring software.
These policy frameworks may include disallowed lists, such as the pwned password list collated by the NCSC which is integrated into the Specops Password Policy, password expiration or the implementation of passphrases, which are proven to be more resilient against brute force spraying attacks.
Speaking on the significance of shoring up healthcare organizations against attack, Paul Chichester, director of operations of NCSC, noted the importance of a collaborative cybersecurity effort against APT actors and malicious cyber-actors: Protecting the healthcare sector is the NCSCs first and foremost priority at this time, and were working closely with the NHS to keep their systems safe. By prioritizing any requests for support from health organizations and remaining in close contact with industries involved in the coronavirus response, we can inform them of any malicious activity and take the necessary steps to help them defend against it. However, we cant do this alone, and we recommend healthcare policy makers and researchers take our actionable steps to defend themselves from password spraying campaigns.
Specops Software is working with multiple NHS Trusts and Healthcare organizations to strengthen their cyber-defense and requirements for achieving Cyber Essentials accreditation. Through world class password security and user authentication solutions, Specops solutions and support reduce costs for the IT department, burden on the helpdesk and ensure your first line of defense is protected against the growing threat of cyber-attack.
Specops is currently offering a FREE solution to identify password vulnerabilities in Active Directory, which is an essential first step in your situational analysis against topics discussed in this article.
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With the arrival of spring and after an exhausting year of COVID-19 restrictions, Americans are eager to return to some sense of normalcy.
However, many health experts are urging patience, warning a possible fourth surge may be on the horizon, with over a dozen states exhibiting early signs of increasing case numbers.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, raised the alarm this week, expressing his concern that we may be reopening faster than we should.
"There were times when we thought things were getting under control and then it exploded again," Fauci said. "So although we are going in the right direction, we've got to keep our foot on the pedal with regard to public health measures."
Over the last week, more than a dozen states have seen increases in their daily case averages. Parts of the upper Midwest have been exhibiting particularly concerning trends, including in Michigan, where cases have been on the rise since late February.
Experts and officials fear that a combination of loosening restrictions and spread of the U.K. variant might be causing the rise in Michigan -- a potentially troubling sign for other areas as mass vaccination rolls out.
'Real concern' in Michigan
The Great Lake State currently has the country's fourth-highest average of new COVID-19 cases per capita, with New Jersey leading the country. For the past three weeks, the daily case average has doubled. In the last week alone, the states average has increased by 53%.
In this Jan. 18, 2021, file photo, Jim Cory, the owner of Jimmys Roadhouse converses with his customers at his restaurant in Newaygo, Mich.
The seven-day average is now over 2,500 new cases a day, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and on Wednesday, Michigan reported a total of 3,164 new cases, its highest single-day case total since early January.
In comparison, California, with approximately four times the population of Michigan, has recorded only 415 more cases than Michigan this week.
Despite several months of declining trends, we are still at high levels of community transmission and with [the U.K.] variant that is known to be more transmissible, there is a real concern that you could rapidly get into a situation of exponential growth in cases that threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems again, explained Josh Petrie, a research assistant professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan's School of Public Health.
Michigan has experienced a steady increase in hospitalizations over since late February and 1,000 people are currently hospitalized, Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, said during a press conference Wednesday -- a 45% increase since Feb. 25.
By contrast, the seven-day average of hospitalizations is down 8.4% nationally this week, and 73% from the peak in January, according to CDC data.
In the last week, hospital admissions in Michigan have increased by 24%, according to the CDC, and the PolicyLab at Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia reports that emergency department visits and hospitalizations are increasing in Michigan.
Wayne and Genesee counties (home to Detroit and Flint) and Macomb County have viral reproduction numbers over 1.3, indicating substantial transmission, and the organizations models project a potential doubling in case incidence in these counties during the next 3-4 weeks.
Although there continues to be a decline in the number of deaths in the state, Lyon-Callo warned that deaths are a lagging indicator. Therefore, that the numbers of COVID-related fatalities could rise in the next few weeks.
Emergence of U.K. variant
The rising metrics may be related to the emergence of a more contagious coronavirus strain, Callo-Lyon said.
In this Dec. 16, 2020, file photo, a man lifts his drink with friends at the bar at Alibi Drinkery in Lakeville, Minn.
According to the CDC, Michigan currently ranks second in the nation for the most reported cases of the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in the U.K., with over 725 confirmed cases in 31 counties.
This variant is very communicable, Dr. Nigel Paneth, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics and pediatrics at Michigan State University, told ABC News. It may be a bit more likely to cause severe disease, but does appear to be preventable by the current vaccines.
The variant is found in the more densely populated areas of the state, with more than half the B.1.1.7 variants identified stemming from an outbreak within the Michigan Department of Corrections, according to the state health department.
In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant driving increased transmission, there is a confluence of factors which may be driving the rising metrics, Dr. Tara Smith, Professor of Epidemiology at the Kent State University College of Public Health, told ABC News, beginning with loosening restrictions on eating, entertainment venues, and other businesses, by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration in the past few weeks.
I believe we are also seeing COVID fatigue, along with, in our state, some modest relaxation of the public health guidelines, said Paneth. There is clearly an unfortunate trend now for the general public to relax distancing measures and for authorities to relax public health restrictions. This is a real concern in light of the continued evolution of new strains of the COVID virus.
Further, with more children back in school, and participating in sports programs, school-related COVID-19 cases are increasing in the state, according to state data.
"The largest number of outbreaks are in K-12 school settings at 162, with 54 new outbreaks reported this week," said Callo-Lyon. Children ages 10-19 now have the highest COVID-19 case rate in Michigan, a rate that "is increasing faster than that of other age groups."
Nationally, however, new child cases declined for the eighth consecutive week, according to a weekly report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association.
However, she said, these new cases are associated with extracurriculars such as sports, and not being in a classroom. As a result, Michigan will begin mandating testing among high school student-athletes.
A nurse looks over the observation area as seniors wait after receiving their coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccinations at Second Ebenezer Church in Detroit, Feb. 27, 2021.
The classroom environment itself has not been a strong signal for outbreaks. It tends to be more those the activities associated with schools, and including sports but not limited to sports, Callo-Lyon added.
'Grit our teeth'
The outbreaks come as the state prepares to open its largest mass vaccination site at Ford Field in Detroit, which is set to officially open on March 24.
"It is time for us to grit our teeth and keep doing the work we need to do until the last second of this event plays out. If we want to get back to normal...we all need to get vaccinated, encourage our loved ones and friends and co-workers and neighbors to do so, Whitmer said on Thursday.
The state is vaccinating at a rate of 90,000 people a day, according to state officials, but so far, less than 25% of the state population has received at least the first dose of the vaccines.
The percentage is lower for cities like Detroit, falling to 15.1%. Earlier this month, the city of Detroit faced criticism for choosing to forgo an allocation of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had said that intention, for as long as possible was to stick with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, as they were the best. However, the mayors office later retracted his comments, and said the city is excited to have three highly effective vaccines to offer its residents.
Experts agree that the key to avoid a possible resurgence will be to not only vaccinate as many Americans as quickly possible, but also to continue to follow proper mitigation efforts.
Getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible will be helpful for reducing the impact of a resurgence. However, my worry is that it takes about a month and a half to get both doses and develop full immunity. Transmission happens much faster than that, said Petrie. So continuing to mask, social distance, and avoid unnecessary community contact will be important until we can get a much larger proportion of the population fully vaccinated.
We all need to still be careful and realize we're not yet out of the woods, concluded Smith.
We were struggling mightily with trying to line up adequate diagnostic testing, and even to get accurate diagnostic testing, Marrazzo said. People were being told that they had to stay home from work. And we were arranging places for people who had to come into the hospital or to stay, people were afraid to go home to their families, if they had spent the night for example, in the intensive care unit or the emergency department.
Hearing loss and other auditory problems may be strongly associated with coronavirus, new research suggests.
Researchers found 56 studies that identified an association between COVID-19 and auditory and vestibular problems. The vestibular system includes the parts of the inner ear and brain that process the sensory information involved with controlling balance and eye movements.
They pooled data from 24 of the studies to estimate that the prevalence of hearing loss was 7.6 per cent, tinnitus was 14.8 per cent and vertigo was 7.2 per cent.
Their data primarily used self-reported questionnaires or medical records to obtain COVID-19-related symptoms, rather than the more scientifically reliable hearing tests. However, the team who followed up their review carried out a year ago described the quality of the studies as fair.
There is an urgent need for a carefully conducted clinical and diagnostic study to understand the long-term effects of COVID-19 on the auditory system, said Kevin Munro, professor of audiology at The University of Manchester and Manchester Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) hearing health lead.
It is also well-known that viruses such as measles, mumps and meningitis can cause hearing loss, little is understood about the auditory effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Though this review provides further evidence for an association, the studies we looked at were of varying quality so more work needs to be done.
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Prof Munro is leading a year-long UK study to investigate the possible long-term impact of coronavirus on hearing among people who have been previously treated in hospital for the virus.
His team hopes to accurately estimate the number and severity of COVID-19-related hearing disorders in the UK, and discover what parts of the auditory system might be affected.
The new study, published in the International Journal of Audiology, was funded by the NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre.
Its hypothetically possible, but parcels pose a very small risk.
A US study found that the coronavirus can survive for up to 24 hours on cardboard (and paper is likely to be similar). So for the parcel to be contaminated, someone with COVID-19 would have had to touch or cough on your parcel within the past day.
The chances of this are low, but common sense advice would be to wash your hands with soap and water after opening the parcel, and then again after youve disposed of the packaging especially if you or anyone else in your household is in one of the vulnerable groups.
The same study found that the virus can survive for up to three days on hard, shiny surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel which is why door handles are particularly good vectors for the virus. So, if you receive anything packaged in plastic, such as takeaway deliveries, make sure to wash your hands after touching it, and especially before eating.
We dont yet know how long the virus can survive on smartphone screens, but its likely to be up to three days. This means that you should ideally clean your phone with disinfectant wipes (Apple recommends 70 per cent isopropyl alcohol wipes), at least once a day.
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