OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- One of the biggest outbreaks in sports has decimated the Baltimore Ravens roster and postponed one of the NFLs best rivalries three times.
The Ravens have gone from a preseason Super Bowl favorite to the face of the NFL's tumultuous and unpredictable 2020 season after at least a dozen players, including the reigning NFL MVP in Lamar Jackson, have tested positive for COVID-19 in Week 12. The Ravens had as many as 20 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including seven Pro Bowl players from last season and accounted for 85 starts this season.
As of Tuesday morning, Baltimore had 10 straight days of positive tests. The coronavirus has spread throughout the organization, infecting players, coaches and support staff. There are at least 30 members of the organization who have either tested positive or were identified as a high-risk close contact, a source said.
The Ravens Week 12 game against the rival Steelers, which was originally scheduled for Thanksgiving night, has been moved to Sunday to Tuesday to Wednesday.
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Here's a look at how one of the toughest weeks in the Ravens' franchise history unfolded and where it currently stands:
Wednesday, Dec. 2: The Ravens were tested in the morning, just hours before kickoff. All tests were negative, a source told ESPNs Adam Schefter. So Baltimore will play a game that was originally scheduled for Thanksgiving. This ended 10 straight days of at least one Ravens player testing positive. At least 14 Baltimore players have tested positive during that time, including seven Pro Bowl players.
Tuesday, Dec. 1: Rookie safety Geno Stone tested positive along with an equipment manager, according to a source. The Ravens learned of the latest positive tests just before traveling to Pittsburgh. The team reduced the number of players on its reserve/COVID-19 list for the first time since its outbreak began on Nov. 22. Baltimore activated four players: NT Brandon Williams, QB Trace McSorley and injured CBs Tavon Young and Khalil Dorsey. The Ravens now have 16 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Monday: Nov. 30: The Ravens had their 9:30 a.m. morning practice canceled by the NFL a day before their scheduled game in Pittsburgh, a source told ESPNs Adam Schefter. The league was awaiting results of the latest tests before allowing the players to practice, a source added. The Ravens waited most of the day not knowing whether they would practice again that afternoon and board a plane to play the NFL's only undefeated team. The day ended with the game between AFC North rivals getting moved for the third time in six days. Baltimore hasnt had a full team practice since Nov. 20, a span of 10 days.
The Ravens issued a statement about the latest postponement:
"As we continue to follow the advice of the NFLs health experts, as well as the Ravens medical professionals, we are preparing for our game against the Steelers.
This evening, we hosted a safely distanced walk-through/conditioning session at the Under Armour Performance Center. Players arrived already prepared to work out on the field, and they did not enter the locker room or training room.
We intend to hold another walk-through session on Tuesday, in preparation for traveling to Pittsburgh Tuesday evening."
Sunday, Nov. 29: Snead IV tested positive. He was the seventh starter on the Baltimore offense to either test positive or get identified as a high-risk close contact. This marked the eighth straight day of at least one positive test for the Ravens.
Saturday, Nov. 28: Two Pro Bowl players, Andrews and Judon, tested positive. Andrews is one of two current NFL players with Type 1 diabetes. The Ravens placed six more players on the reserve/COVID-19 list: Holden, LB Jaylon Ferguson, OT D.J. Fluker, DT Broderick Washington, CB Khalil Dorsey and CB Tavon Young. The Ravens have placed 18 players on the list in the past six days.
Friday, Nov. 27: The Week 12 game between the Ravens and Steelers is moved from Sunday to Tuesday. Further, Baltimore is now scheduled to play host to the Cowboys at 5 p.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 7. Will Holden, a practice squad player who suited up for the Ravens last game, tested positive. Its the sixth straight day of at least one positive test.
Thursday, Nov. 26: The Ravens' outbreak creates its biggest headline when Jackson tested positive. He is among the four latest Ravens players to test positive, along with a staff member, a source said. The Ravens believe Jackson was infected Sunday, when he took snaps from Mekari during the game and was in close contact with Dobbins and Ingram because his locker is right next to theirs, a source said. Under league rules, Jackson will quarantine for 10 days, which means he would miss Sunday's game at Pittsburgh, as well as Thursday night's game against the Dallas Cowboys.
In a span of five days, Baltimore has had 12 players test positive. Ravens coach John Harbaugh told his players they wouldn't return to the team facility until Monday at the earliest in the interest of team safety.
"We just want to contain this outbreak! Speaking from experience ... you don't want to catch COVID!," Campbell wrote on Twitter. "This virus is brutal! I pray no one else has to go thru this. This is bigger than football."
Wednesday, Nov. 25: At 12:50 p.m. ET, the NFL announced that the Thursday night game between the Ravens and the undefeated Steelers was being moved to Sunday afternoon. This decision comes 31 hours before the scheduled kickoff. It has since been moved again, to Tuesday night.
That evening, the Ravens released a one-sentence statement that a staff member was disciplined "for conduct surrounding the recent COVID-19 cases that have affected players and staff at the Ravens." A source confirmed this was the strength and conditioning coach who had tested positive last week and didn't follow league COVID-19 protocols.
Defensive end Jihad Ward, who was expected to replace McPhee (who is on the reserve/COVID-19 list), tested positive. He is the eighth Ravens player to get infected. A position coach as well as a support staff member also tested positive.
Tuesday, Nov. 24: The team facility is shut down a second time at noon. By that time, the Ravens had already conducted meetings and another on-field workout, a source confirmed.
At this point, the Ravens were still scheduled to leave the next day for Pittsburgh for their Thanksgiving night game at Heinz Field. The team had chartered an extra plane to increase social distancing.
Then, three more players -- defensive end Calais Campbell, starting center Patrick Mekari and backup center Matt Skura -- tested positive. There's also a report that third-string quarterback Trace McSorley, who was already on the list after being identified as a close contact last week, also tested positive. That brings Baltimore's positive tests for players to seven.
Monday, Nov. 23: The Ravens' team facility is closed in the morning, but the NFL authorized Baltimore to reopen in the afternoon. After virtual team and position-group meetings, the team conducted a walk-through during which everyone wore masks.
"We all knew that us playing football would put us at a bigger risk," Judon said after the walk-through. "We knew we [could] obviously get the virus, and we all knew that this wasnt something to be played around with."
Outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, who always ended his media sessions this season by saying, "Stay positive, test negative," becomes the third player this week to test positive. Nose tackle Brandon Williams is identified as a "high-risk" close contact and is put on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Sunday, Nov. 22: Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Ingram tested positive for COVID-19 just hours after the Ravens' emotional 30-24 overtime loss to the Titans. These are the first reported cases of the week involving Ravens players in what would become one of the largest outbreaks in the league.
Thursday, Nov. 19: A strength and conditioning coach for the Ravens tested positive, according to a source. He didn't report symptoms and didn't always wear a mask inside the team facility, the source added. To make matters worse, the coach didn't wear his tracing device at all times, which made it more difficult to determine "high-risk" close contacts.
The Oregon Health Authority reports the largest number of workplace outbreaks since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
PORTLAND, Ore. There are 108 active COVID-19 workplace outbreaks in Oregon as of this week, up from the 89 reported last week by the Oregon Health Authority (OHA). More than 11,000 people in the state have tested positive for the coronavirus in relation to workplace outbreaks.
Health officials track outbreaks of five or more employees at workplaces where there are at least 30 workers. An outbreak remains active if there has been a case within the past 28 days. The case count for each workplace includes everyone who is linked to the outbreak, whether they are workers or a close contact.
OHA said there have been 61 deaths and 11,139 cases associated with workplace outbreaks in Oregon during the pandemic. Thats eight more deaths and 1,172 more cases than officials reported last week.
The largest active outbreak remains at the Snake River Correctional Institution in Ontario. The outbreak was first identified on June 24 and the case count has continued to rise since then. There have been 550 coronavirus cases linked to the outbreak, with the most recent onset reported on Nov. 30.
The three largest active workplace outbreaks in Oregon are at prisons:
The list below includes active workplace outbreaks (Table 3), meaning that there has been a case within the past 28 days.
Food processing and packaging facilities have also been hot spots for COVID-19 outbreaks in the workplace. Amys Kitchen in Jackson County and Lamb Weston East in Morrow County have both been linked to 90 total cases, with the most recent cases reported on Nov. 24.
Distribution centers have also been connected to numerous coronavirus outbreaks. Amazon Troutdale has been linked to 101 COVID-19 cases, the fourth-largest workplace outbreak in the state. The Fred Meyer Distribution Center in Clackamas, with 88 associated cases, and the Walmart Distribution Center in Hermiston, connected to 87 cases, are also among the 10 largest active workplace outbreaks.
Two Oregon hospitals are also among the 10 largest active workplace outbreaks. Salem Hospital has been connected to 95 cases, with the most recent known case on Nov. 23. Good Shepherd Hospital in Umatilla County has been associated with 73 COVID-19 cases, the most recent on Nov. 27.
Health officials also reported a list of 88 workplaces where COVID-19 outbreaks have been resolved (Table 4) over the last eight weeks. Outbreaks are considered resolved if there hasnt been a known case in 28 days.
In early November, as Colorados coronavirus case numbers surged to levels that now threaten the states hospital capacity and could lead to thousands more deaths before the end of the year, Gov. Jared Polis issued a plea to his constituents.
Weve got to live like we did in August and September. We just all eased up in October, and started taking it for granted, and got complacent, Polis said then.
The latest from the coronavirus outbreak in Colorado:
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This was like the opening mystery of a pandemic potboiler: What were we collectively doing in late summer that we stopped doing in October? Whats the villain here?
Accusations flew.
Its indoor dining at restaurants! Its large super-spreader events!
The finger-pointing ran in circles. Experts said small household gatherings appeared to be driving the surge in cases. The New York Times published an article, citing data from Colorado, questioning whether that is the case. And the director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rebutted the article.
But these debates missed the simpler answer, the common denominator of all the explanations for the case surge.
Its a matter of movement.
And, by many measures, Coloradans have since the summer been moving around as much as they did pre-pandemic maybe even more.
The prerequisite for this current surge has been in place for a while, said Jude Bayham, a Colorado State University economist who has been studying mobility trends to guide the states pandemic response.
The virus cant jump from host to host if people arent moving around. So, when people move around more, theres more potential for the virus to spread.
The rest is down to mask-wearing or distancing or hand-washing or ventilation or weather or luck. But Bayham said greater mobility plants the seeds for case surges.
Since early in the pandemic, the data company SafeGraph has been tracking something it calls its Shelter in Place Index. The company collects anonymized data on cell phone movements. The index is basically a measurement of how much of the population is staying home each day relative to a pre-pandemic baseline.
In the most recent data from Colorado, SafeGraph shows that Coloradans are back to staying home no more than normal, and sometimes less.
But theres no single culprit driving this.
According to SafeGraphs data, foot traffic at Colorado businesses is up since the lockdowns of the spring. But its still well below normal. And it has also begun to decline again in the fall as cases have risen.
Bayham also uses SafeGraph data in his research to track more specific measures. His analyses, for instance, can show how much people in individual Colorado counties are visiting restaurants, bars, grocery stores, parks or hotels. (Again, this data is anonymous and aggregated, so he and other researchers cant use it to track any individuals movements.)
Similar to what SafeGraph has found with visits to businesses, Bayham has found that more people in Colorado have returned to working in-person since the spring. But its still not back to pre-pandemic levels.
Still, Bayham has found that Coloradans are spending less time at home than they did in the spring. In many counties, the time spent at home at various points in the summer and fall has dropped below 2019 levels. Overall, Bayham said he estimates mobility in Colorado has been at 2019 levels since mid-summer.
(Bayham has produced charts for all of Colorados counties, available here. The charts below are for the 15 largest counties in Colorado. The dashed line shows the average amount of time people in the county spent at home per day during the stay-at-home period.)
Its important to note that time spent outside of the home doesnt necessarily mean people are traveling to risky places for viral spread. They could be taking a walk alone in their neighborhood or going on a hike in remote wilderness.
And exactly what people are doing when they arent at home differs by county. Take, for instance, the difference between Colorados two largest counties Denver and El Paso.
In Denver, visits to parks have jumped in the fall, but visits to restaurants and bars have remained far below 2019 levels.
In El Paso County, home to Colorado Springs, visits to restaurants and bars increased over the summer but have since fallen off.
Why this pre-pandemic level of mobility is only now translating into a rise in cases is a separate mystery.
Elizabeth Carlton, an infectious disease researcher at the Colorado School of Public Health who works with Bayham as part of the modeling team helping the state project the pandemics course, said COVID fatigue likely plays a big role. People just want to go back to their normal lives, which leads them to let down their precautions in what they consider safe environments, like their own home in the company of friends.
This virus is exhausting, Carlton said. And disruptive. And causing us to rethink everything. To be safe, we have to change how we worship, how we eat, how we mix with our family and friends. And thats a big ask.
The weather also likely plays a role. Colder weather pushes personal gatherings from well-ventilated back patios to poorly ventilated indoor spaces. But the colder temperatures also likely help the virus remain viable for longer outside the human body, giving it a greater chance to infect someone new.
It may be, Carlton said, that we need to work harder now to control the virus than we did during the summer because the weather is making things less favorable for us.
The state has tried to do that hard work by tightening restrictions on restaurants and gatherings. But, in a briefing to Colorado reporters on Tuesday alongside Polis, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nations top infectious disease expert, said Thanksgiving-related travel may mean Colorado, like the rest of the nation, is poised for a surge upon a surge of cases and hospitalizations that could begin hitting in two to three weeks.
The nation, Fauci said, is poised for a month of precarious risk. And that risk will come in all sorts of places at work, at the store, in gatherings with friends or family. People can mitigate the risk, he said, by wearing masks. Maintaining their distance. Meeting with people outside rather than inside. Washing their hands.
But the most effective strategy is both the simplest and, as we enter the 10th month of the pandemic, perhaps the hardest. It addresses the root cause of almost all new cases but also asks the most of us.
Think about your mobility footprint. As much as possible, just stay home.
Avoid the things that we know are pleasant and desirable though theyre dangerous now, Fauci said. Its not too late to do something about it.
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Three companies have announced preliminary data indicating their vaccines are effective, and there are dozens of additional candidates in clinical trials. Can I choose which vaccine I get?
This depends on a number of factors, including the supply in your area at the time youre vaccinated and whether certain vaccines are found to be more effective in certain populations, such as older adults. At first, the only choice is likely to be Pfizers vaccine, assuming it is approved. Moderna asked the F.D.A. for emergency authorization on Monday; if approved, it would most likely become available within weeks after Pfizers.
Some participants in both Pfizers and Modernas trials have said they experienced symptoms including fever, muscle aches, bad headaches and fatigue after receiving the shots, but the side effects generally did not last more than a day. Still, preliminary data suggests that, compared with most flu vaccines, the coronavirus shots have a somewhat higher rate of such reactions, which are almost always normal signs that the bodys immune response is kicking in. At the meeting of the C.D.C. advisory committee last week, some members said it would be important for doctors to warn their patients about possible side effects and assure them of the vaccines safety.
Each companys application to the F.D.A. includes two months of follow-up safety data from Phase 3 of clinical trials conducted by universities and other independent bodies. In that phase, tens of thousands of volunteers get a vaccine and wait to see if they become infected, compared with others who receive a placebo. By September, Pfizers trial had 44,000 participants; no serious safety concerns have been reported.
The F.D.A. will also review the data for each vaccine seeking authorization and share it with its advisory committee, which will meet publicly in the case of the Pfizer vaccine, on Dec. 10 to ask questions and make a recommendation to the agency. The F.D.A. will then decide whether to approve the vaccine for emergency use.
Probably. Although people who have contracted the virus do have immunity, it is too soon to know how long it lasts. So for now, it makes sense for them to get the shot. The question is when.
Some members of the C.D.C. advisory committee have suggested Covid survivors should be toward the back of the line.
At the beginning, when its a resource-limited vaccine, my opinion is that we need to try and target as best we can to those that we know are susceptible, Dr. Robert Atmar, an infectious disease specialist at Baylor College of Medicine who serves on the committee, said during a meeting of the panel last week.
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For Andrew Rubalcabas 39th birthday, he wanted to get out of town but he also wanted to be safe.
So before Thanksgiving, he drove more than 500 miles west from his home in McKinney to visit Marfa and Big Bend National Park.
The popular Texas tourist destinations were appealing in the midst of a still-raging pandemic because they are seemingly in the middle of nowhere. Theyre rural, sparsely populated, outdoorsy and now overrun with visitors and saturated with COVID-19 cases.
If only we knew the locals were saying dont come, definitely we would not have gone. We would not have gone out of respect for the local population, Rubalcaba said.
Presidio and Brewster counties, home to Marfa and Big Bend, along with nearby Culberson County, lead the state in cases per 1,000 residents in the last two weeks, according to a Texas Tribune analysis. In fact, all of West Texas, including Jeff Davis, Hudspeth and El Paso counties, is ablaze with increasing COVID-19 cases and low on hospital beds.
Big Bend Regional Medical Center, located in Brewster County, has just 25 acute care beds. Culberson Countys 2,200 residents have just Culberson Hospital, where there are 14 beds and two ventilators, but at least one doctor said she doesnt feel adequately prepared to use them.
Its unlikely wed be able to help them at this point.
Patients in dire condition are often transferred from the small towns to regional hospitals in larger metropolitan areas. But those closest hospital systems in El Paso, Lubbock and Midland, which have more resources, are already struggling with their own influxes of local cases, leaving doctors and county officials worried a bump in cases from Thanksgiving gatherings will fill beds beyond capacity with nowhere left to send the sickest patients.
Its unlikely wed be able to help them at this point, said Ricardo Samaniego, the county judge of El Paso, where COVID-19 patients occupy more than 35% of hospital beds.
Without El Paso as an option to send patients, nearby doctors and officials are scrambling.
Its a scary feeling to have a critically ill patient with nowhere to go, said Gilda Morales, a Culberson County commissioner and doctor at Culberson Hospital.
She said that in recent weeks, the county has sent struggling patients to hospitals in San Antonio more than 400 miles away including Culberson County Judge Carlos Urias, whos been there for nearly four weeks.
If a flood of residents need to be hospitalized quickly, and cases in San Antonio and other metropolitan areas swell, Culberson might not have the resources to treat everyone in need, Morales said.
Were worried those beds will run out, and then what? Morales said. Were all holding our breath because as much as we told people not to get together for Thanksgiving, the holidays and family give a false sense of security.
Hospitals across the West Texas region are bumping capacity and stretched absolutely to the limit, said John Henderson, president of the Texas Organization of Rural and Community Hospitals. Administrators have struggled to find open beds, in some cases calling 15 or 20 facilities, he said.
Everyone is headed the wrong direction, he said. Every week is a little worse than the last one.
In Odessa and in neighboring Midland, the areas three hospitals serve as referral centers, accepting patients from small-town facilities that are ill equipped to treat serious illnesses.
All of our outlying facilities, they dont have ICUs or ventilators that can take care of patients long term, said Dr. Rohith Saravanan, chief medical officer of Odessa Regional Medical Center. The hospital in recent weeks added 34 beds for people with COVID-19, and, as of Tuesday, only four were still empty.
If we see any more sharp rises, I dont think our hospitals will be able to keep up with capacity, Saravanan said.
Scenic Mountain Medical Center in Big Spring is one of those outlying community hospitals. The facilitys seven intensive care unit beds are full, as are 18 overflow beds that fill the hallways.
Before Thanksgiving, cases and hospitalizations were already on the rise in the mostly rural region, and locals worried tourism and family gatherings would only make the hot spot worse.
Yet even as cases of the coronavirus have ballooned, tourists from other parts of the state have continued to flock to the regions campsites and small communities, a worrying trend for local officials.
In the tiny desert city and artistic hub of Marfa, tourism never slowed. People still flood the towns hotels and shops. Its a delicate situation for the town of 1,700, which has an economy that relies on tourism but has seen an explosion of COVID-19.
Our community is fragile, said City Council member Ral Lara. He buys groceries on Fridays after work and rarely leaves his house during weekends to avoid crowds.
Its a double-edged sword, because we live on tourism money and we die without it, Lara said.
In response to rising concern that the next two weeks could be catastrophic because of Thanksgiving gatherings, residents of Jeff Davis County, one of the three counties touched by Big Bend, have urged one another to take precautions in a Facebook group. The members discuss the tourons rhymes with morons a reference to the tourists that continue to visit despite West Texas emerging as a hot spot.
Jeanine Bishop, the admin of the Facebook group Jeff Davis County News & Talk, also said tourism is a double-edged sword. The countys 2,300 residents are forced to pick between tourism and potentially more COVID-19, or closed businesses and unemployment.
This week, Bishop, who runs the Alpine Humane Society and a thrift shop, laid off all of her staff. As cases rise, she worries about unmasked customers entering her store.
Its hard. We need the tourist dollars, but were really scared of whats going to happen because of Thanksgiving, Bishop said. Shes frustrated with the governments inaction. Despite shutdowns this spring when COVID-19 was not widespread in her area, neither the state government nor Bishops local officials have urged stricter precautions this time around.
She feels powerless to stop what feels like an inevitable and sharp increase in cases as she watches more Texans vacation in the region while her community suffers the consequences.
She said last weekend most customers at her store said they were from out of town. Bishop offered them a message: Please dont. Were going to be devastated in two weeks.
For schools like those in the Chichester district, which has been rotating children into classrooms two days a week with virtual school days on Fridays, school time might not be lost if case counts rose to a shutdown level on a Thursday, for instance, and cleaning and contact tracing were performed over the weekend, said Superintendent Dan Nerelli.
In addition, increased adipose tissue may have more ACE-2, the enzyme that allows the coronavirus to invade cells and begin to damage them. A recent study has shown an association of increased ACE-2 in adipose tissue rather than lung tissue. This finding further strengthens the hypothesis that obesity plays a major role in more serious COVID-19 infections. So in theory, if you have more adipose tissue, the virus can bind to and invade more cells, causing higher viral loads that stay around longer, which can make the infection more severe and prolong recovery.
Updated 4:45 p.m.
This month 20 million Americans will be vaccinated against COVID-19, and the first people on that list are health care workers.
As we get into January, February and March, and we get more and more of the priority groups, we will, soon as we get into April, have vaccines for the general population for the 20 and 30-year-old healthy man or woman who wants to get vaccinated, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Once we get there, we can crush this outbreak just the way we did with smallpox, with polio and with measles.
Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, joined Gov. Jared Polis in a remote update on the states response to the coronavirus pandemic on Tuesday, Dec. 1.
Fauci was appointed director of NIAID in 1984 and has advised six presidents on HIV/AIDS and many other domestic and global health issues, and currently serves on the Trump administrations Coronavirus Task Force.
Gov. Jared Polis previously predicted the state could get 100,000 to 200,000 doses in December and early January. Fauci said the 40 million doses that will be available in December each person will receive two doses of the vaccine will be distributed to states based on population, which means Colorado could get more than Polis has predicted.
Colorados draft distribution plan calls for health care workers to be first in line for the vaccine, including those who work in assisted living facilities.
First responders like police, firefighters, corrections workers and others deemed members of Colorados critical workforce would be next, then residents of nursing homes and long-term care facilities, followed by people living in close quarters like prisons and shelters for the homeless.
Some people have expressed distrust of the new COVID-19 vaccines. Fauci said it all comes down to messaging and transparency. He explained that the vaccines have been tested in more than 70,000 Americans and then independently reviewed, and reviewed again, by career scientists at the Food and Drug Administration, who also wait 60-days to track adverse side effects before granting an emergency use authorization for a vaccine.
I think if every health care worker realizes how transparent and independent the process is, they would feel much more comfortable about getting vaccinated, Fauci said. You're seeing me now as a public health person, but I am also a health care provider. And I also see patients, and I will get vaccinated when my time arrives.
Polis has pleaded with Coloradans to wear a mask to protect themselves and others, Fauci echoed his sentiments.
No intervention is 100 percent, but if we disregarded interventions that are not 100 percent, we'd be in a lot of trouble, Fauci said. We know that seatbelts save lives for absolutely certain, but occasionally there's a car accident that's severe enough that someone is wearing a seatbelt and they still get severely injured or even die. Does that mean people should not wear seatbelts? Absolutely not.
The press conference with Fauci was just days after Polis announced he and his partner, Marlon Reis, tested positive for the virus.
I'm grateful to report that both of us continue to do well. Very mild symptoms this is just such a lottery, Polis said.
Earlier this week when he talked to CPR News he said he was grateful he didnt see his parents for Thanksgiving.
But, plenty of Coloradans did gather for the holiday, including Republican Representative-elect Lauren Boebert, who said she hosted around 30-people.
Public health officials have warned for months of the possibility of a serious post-Thanksgiving surge in COVID-19 cases. If it does happen, a Harvard epidemiologist says, the signs should become apparent this week, and she cautioned those who gathered with family and friends for the holiday to get tested or act under the assumption that theyve been infected.
We expect a rise in cases and a rise in deaths, unfortunately, over the next few weeks, said Megan Murray, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Ronda Stryker and William Johnston Professor of Global Health at Harvard Medical School. The main thing is to recognize that you could have been exposed and to assume youre exposed or test frequently. Assume one might be infectious rather than otherwise.
Murray, who offered her prediction on Tuesday during a Facebook Live event sponsored by The Forum at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and PRIs The World, balanced the dismal outlook for the immediate future with the likelihood that vaccine distribution could begin later this month. If the FDA approves the vaccine developed by Pfizer and Germany-based BioNTech a step taken Wednesday by British authorities distribution could begin very quickly, she said.
Infectious disease experts and epidemiologists tracking the coronavirus have warned that holiday gatherings have the potential to fuel virus transmission and boost an ongoing national surge that has seen 1.1 million new cases over the last seven days alone and pushed total deaths above 267,000. Those numbers, which continue to climb, have prompted dire predictions for the coming months, even as hope for an eventual end to the pandemic has risen with the apparent success of coronavirus vaccines.
Despite the mounting good news on vaccines, Murray said their distribution faces considerable hurdles, including such practical matters as how to store vaccines that need very cold temperatures in locales without the necessary equipment. Other issues include deciding who should be vaccinated first. States will have a significant say on this question, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory board this week advised that front-line health care workers and vulnerable elderly should be first in line. Another issue, Murray said, is whether enough people are willing to be vaccinated to interrupt transmission. If just 50 percent of the population lines up, it would be a real problem, she said.
Its not easy, but its doable, Murray said.
Murray gave the clinical trials high marks for scientific quality but pointed out that trials of such short duration dont give researchers a sense of a vaccines characteristics over the long term, including how durable immunity will be.
Public health officials have likewise noted that it is also unclear whether its possible to carry the disease and infect others even if you are immunized.
Its likely that a vaccine wont be widely available for months, Murray said, and in the interim people are left to continue to deal with the daily reality of the pandemic. There is a new tool to help, however. An at-home test by Lucira Health Inc. is the first that provides results without having to send a sample to a lab. While the new test represents progress in the march toward rapid and frequent at-home testing which has been suggested as a way to interrupt transmission and control the pandemic Murray said because this test is only available by prescription and costs $50, it may be too pricey to be the answer for daily or weekly testing.
Overall, the testing landscape is chaos, Murray said, marred by inconsistencies where some get tested immediately and see results quickly, while others wait in long lines for tests and results take days. The situation, she said, illustrates a lack of public health governance.Will there be a serious post-Thanksgiving COVID surge?
It can be done; it just hasnt been done, Murray said of a fair and fluid testing scheme.
Here are the latest updates on COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
ST PAUL, Minn. Thursday, Dec. 3
The New York Times has unveiled a new online tool that can help people estimate when they might be able to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. That tool can be found here on the Times website.
Gov. Tim Walz and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are urging Minnesotans to draw upon state aid for their end-of-year housing bills.
In a media call at 1 p.m. Gov. Walz highlighted efforts to "ensure Minnesotans can afford to stay in their homes during the COVID-19 pandemic."
Minnesotans can apply for housing assistance through the United Way by calling 211 or going online at 211unitedway.org. The deadline is Monday. Dec. 7 at 11:59 p.m. As of the end of November, the state still had over $30 million available to give out to those struggling to make housing payments.
COVID-19 is continuing to take a significant number of lives in Minnesota, with 92 new fatalities reported by state health officials on Thursday
Those deaths are the second highest single-day total since the pandemic began, only behind the 101 deaths reported the Friday after Thanksgiving. The total number of lives lost in the state now sits at 3,784. Thursday's near-record comes just one day after the third-highest daily death toll of 77.
The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) says 6,166 new coronavirus cases were reported Thursday, based on results from 50,718 tests (45,885 PCR, 4,833 antigen) processed in private and state labs.
A positive PCR test is considered a confirmed case, while a positive antigen test is considered probable.
Minnesota now reports 333,626 COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic.
Hospitalizations due to the coronavirus in Minnesota are continuing a downward trend. COVID-19 patients are currently using 1,394 non-ICU beds across the state - 29 fewer than the day prior, and 376 ICU beds - nine fewer than the previous day. Metro bed availability has improved from 1.9% to 2.3%, and ICU bed availability in the metro has grown from 4.5% to 5.7%.
The total number of patients hospitalized since COVID hit Minnesota is 17,623, with 3,911 of those requiring treatment in the ICU.
COVID-19 case rates now put 86 of 87 Minnesota counties under full distance learning recommendations from MDH, although community spread is only one factor of many schools are instructed to use to determine their learning model.
Leading causes of exposure for those who have tested positive include community exposure with no known contact (62,312 cases) followed by a known contact (55,953 cases) and exposure through a congregate care setting (26,100 cases).
Young people 20 to 24 make up the largest group of cases with 35,289 and two deaths, followed by those 25 to 29 with 30,360 and four deaths. The greatest number of fatalities involves people 85 to 89 with 712 in 4,244 confirmed cases.
Hennepin County has the most recorded COVID activity with 70,069 cases and 1,145 deaths, followed by Ramsey County with 29,459 cases and 521 deaths, Dakota County with 23,564 cases and 198 deaths and Anoka County with 23,541 cases and 236 fatalities.
Cook County in northeastern Minnesota has the least amount of COVID activity with 80 cases and no deaths.
On Wednesday, Governor Tim Walz, Department of Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington and several first responders spoke to Minnesotans to address the way the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted public safety and emergency response.
Walz said that he hopes to highlight aspects of everyday life that are impacted by the pandemic that many Minnesotans may not typically consider. According to Walz, the workforce of firefighters, police officers and paramedics in Minnesota has been affected by COVID-19, which can impact their ability to respond to emergencies.
Harrington emphasized that this is a statewide issue, and that he is hearing every day from fire departments and police departments that are having staffing issues due to COVID-19.
He added that fire departments have been hit particularly hard.
"Ninety-nine out of the 500 fire departments in the state of Minnesota have had major COVID outbreaks," he said. "That's 20%."
He stressed that the state has worked to rearrange resources and take precautions to keep departments staffed, but it won't take much to take those departments out of service if communities do not wear masks, avoid gatherings and social distance.
Eagan Police Chief Roger New said that his department has followed CDC guidelines since the pandemic began, but he has still seen 20% of his staff take time off due to COVID-19 quarantines at some point since March, including one staff member who was hospitalized and took two months to fully recover.
Jay Wood, a firefighter in Plato, said that the Plato Fire Department has also carefully followed guidelines, but an outbreak that affected over three quarters of the department forced them to take the department out of service for a time.
"We are not alone as a small department of dealing with the virus and the staffing issues it has presented to us," he said. "Minnesota fire services are always here to help the public, and people always ask how they can help us. The biggest thing you can do is follow the guidelines the governor and the Department of Health have set for us."
Paramedic Ross Chavez echoed this, urging Minnesotans to follow advice from health experts to help keep first responders in the community healthy so they can continue providing fast and effective emergency services.
"Please, help my colleagues and me be there for those who need us, especially this holiday season during these trying times," Chavez said.
Walz said that for Minnesotans frustrated by other community members not following these guidelines, he does not want to shame anyone, but it is a "moral hazard" to not wear a mask and go to large gatherings.
"We're not going to be able to arrest everybody, that was certainly never our intention," he said. "You don't have to follow these rules because I said so, you don't have to follow them because you don't like government. You should follow them because they're the right thing to do, they protect lives."
Walz added that by next Tuesday, he hopes he and state health officials will have a clear timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) Commissioner Jan Malcolm said she expects the FDA will issue an emergency use authorization on Dec. 11, and that the first wave of vaccinations could begin as soon as a week or so later.
Walz said he understands concerns around safety of the vaccine, but his assessment has been that the federal government has done a "fantastic job" of the vaccine development.
However, he stressed that though the excitement around the vaccine may indicate that the pandemic is over, we are still "in the teeth of it."
"Let's make sure we get all of our neighbors there, and protect those folks that make a difference," he said.
The resurgence of COVID-19 in Minnesota is proving deadly, as underscored by 77 new fatalities reported by state health officials Wednesday.
Those deaths are the second highest single-day total since the pandemic came to Minnesota, only behind the 101 deaths reported the Friday after Thanksgiving. The total number of lives lost in the state now sits at 3,692.
The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) says 5,192 new coronavirus cases were reported Wednesday, based on results from 42,737 tests (39,912 PCR, 2,825 Antigen) processed in private and state labs.
A positive PCR test is considered a confirmed case, while a positive Antigen test is considered probable.
Minnesota now reports 327,477 COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic.
In a bit of positive news, hospital bed use is down after a surge in recent days. Coronavirus patients are currently using 1,350 non-ICU beds, down 104 from Tuesday, and 354 ICU beds across the state are being used for COVID patients, down 40 from a day ago.
The total number of patients hospitalized since COVID hit Minnesota is 17,378, with 3,873 of those requiring treatment in the ICU.
Leading causes of exposure for those who have tested positive include community exposure with no known contact (60,808 cases) followed by a known contact (54,554 cases) and exposure through a congregate care setting (25,695 cases).
Young people 20 to 24 make up the largest group of cases by a significant margin with 34,806 and two deaths, followed by those 25 to 29 with 29,876 and four deaths. The greatest number of fatalities involves people 85 to 89 with 691 in 4,156 confirmed cases.
Hennepin County has the most recorded COVID activity with 68,898 cases and 1,130 deaths, followed by Ramsey County with 28,948 cases and 512 deaths, Anoka County with 23,196 cases and 232 fatalities, and Dakota County with 23,102 cases and 194 deaths.
Cook County in northeastern Minnesota has the least amount of COVID activity with 79 cases and no deaths.
