President-elect Joe Biden has signaled that fighting the COVID-19 pandemic will be an immediate priority for his administration. He recently announced a coronavirus advisory board of infectious disease researchers and former public health advisers along with an updated strategy that will include increases in testing and contact tracing, as well as transparent communication.
But Inauguration Day is still two months away. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases are likely to increase to 20 million by the end of January, nearly doubling the current level of 11.4 million cases, predicts a Washington University in St. Louis COVID-19 forecasting model.
The model, which accurately forecasted the rate of COVID-19 growth over the summer of 2020, was developed by Olin Business Schools Meng Liu, Raphael Thomadsen and Song Yao. Their paper presenting the model and its forecasts was published Nov. 23 byScientific Reports.
One of the key reasons for the increased accuracy of this model over other COVID-19 forecasts is that this model accounts for the fact that people live in interconnected social networks rather than interacting mostly with random groups of strangers, said Thomadsen, professor of marketing. This allows the model to forecast that growth will not continue at exponential rates for long periods of time, as classic COVID-19 forecasts predict.
An interactive online version of the model also allows users to observe the impact different levels of social distancing will have on the spread of COVID-19. The current social distancing reflects an approximate 60% return to normalcy, as compared with the level of social distancing before the pandemic. If we continue, as a nation, at the current level of social distancing, the model forecasts that we are likely to reach 20 million cases before the end of January 2021.
Even small increases in social distancing can have a large effect on the number of cases we observe in the next two and a half months, Thomadsen said. Going back to a 50% return to normalcy, which was the average level of distancing in early August, would likely result in 5 million fewer cases by the end of January.
We could effectively squash out the COVID growth within a few weeks if we went back to the levels of social distancing we experienced in April.
We could effectively squash out the COVID growth within a few weeks if we went back to the levels of social distancing we experienced in April, he added.
However, the researchers caution that this is likely a conservative estimate due to increased testing and the upcoming holidays.
In our model, we assume that only 10% of cases are ever diagnosed, meaning that we will start to hit saturation, said Song Yao, associate professor of marketing and study co-author. However, more recently, testing has increased, and probably more like 25% of cases are diagnosed. In that case, total COVID cases would increase beyond 20 million in the next few months unless we, as a society, engage in more social distancing.
The upcoming holiday seasons will present a great deal of uncertainty to the outlook of the pandemic as people travel more at the end of the year. This will likely make our forecast an optimistic one, said Meng Liu, assistant professor of marketing and study co-author.
As Dr. Timothy Donovan led his daughter and granddaughter on a lengthy hike near Tucson, Arizona, he stumbled and fell. The Madison doctor brushed himself off and insisted the group keep going so his granddaughter, 10 or 11 at the time, could experience success in the outdoors.
The next day, Donovan went to urgent care, where an X-ray revealed a fracture. He had broken his wrist, but he didnt say one word to anybody, said his daughter, Kristin Nelson, who was with her daughter on the hike. He wanted to give her a sense of accomplishment.
Donovan was never one to complain, Nelson said, whether it was growing up as the eldest son of 10 children in southeastern Wisconsin, ushering Dean Clinic through mergers as president or fighting multiple myeloma in his later years, when he became UW-Madisons oldest stem-cell transplant recipient at the age of 72.
He would listen to the rest of us complain about one thing or another, Nelson said. But hed just focus on the positive.
Timothy Donovan helped lead Dean Clinic through mergers as president. In later years, he fought multiple myeloma and became UW-Madisons oldest stem-cell transplant recipient at the age of 72.
Donovan died from COVID-19 and his blood cancer on April 10 at age 82. He became ill from the coronavirus in late March.
He didnt even get that sick with COVID-19. But he was so sick with his cancer, that was all it took, said Dr. Conrad Andringa, a longtime friend and Dean Clinic colleague.
Donovan, from a Catholic family, entered the seminary but started a hunger strike to bring attention to his desire to attend college. It was to let his parents know he wanted to be a doctor, not a priest, Andringa said.
After attending Marquette University, Donovan received his medical degree from UW School of Medicine and Public Health. He and Andringa, medical school classmates, ended up at Dean Clinic, Andringa as a pediatrician and Donovan an ear, nose and throat specialist.
Timothy Donovan on a trip to Italy in 2010.
Donovan became president of Dean Clinic, helping it merge with another doctor group and launch an HMO, Dean Health Plan.
He was a friend you could count on, said Andringa, who played the card game Sheepshead with Donovan and joined him in attending Badgers football, basketball and hockey games.
Donovan was a dedicated tennis player, spending many hours at the John Powless Tennis Center in Madison. He also played bridge, achieving the title of life master.
He worked extremely hard at whatever he did, whether it be tennis or golf or bridge, said Nelson, a veterinarian in Janesville.
As with many COVID-19 deaths, a traditional memorial service was not held.
Its a big Irish family and there was no big funeral, no big wake, Nelson said. There wasnt a lot of closure.
ESTERO
Hertz Arena announced over the weekend that they were creating a pop-up COVID-19 testing site in the parking lot. The testing is free for those who live in The Village of Estero.
But Molecular Testing is different from other types of coronavirus testing because it takes just a little bit longer. However, medical experts say it is more accurate, which is important during the week of Thanksgiving.
Peter Cordon took one of those molecular COVID-19 tests. Im older and I thought I would check it out and see if Im ok. I feel ok, but you never know, said Cordon.
On Monday, he came out to get a free test just to sure hes okay. cordon says he isnt taking any chances with the holidays right around the corner.
We are doing a little get together six people. And I want to be sure, comfortable. And its great that they have this testing available, Cordon said.
At Hertz Arena, Cordon and hundreds of others were able to get a molecular test instead of the rapid antigen tests offered at sites like CenturyLink.
Molecular tests are more sensitive and look for the viruss genetic material. Antigen tests only look for pieces of the virus. That is how those antigen tests provide faster, yet less accurate, results.
Dr. Yuka Manabe is an infectious disease specialist at Johns Hopkins. Infectious people are likely to be found by a test like Abbott ID Now and other molecular tests overall, its more sensitive than an antigen test, Dr. Manabe.
For Cordon, the level of accuracy that comes with the molecular test is worth the wait. Of course, Id like to know right now but Id rather have more thorough, Id rather have that versus false positives or false negatives. So Im glad its more thorough, a higher percentage of success, he said.
Neither an antigen nor a molecular test can tell if the virus in your body is still alive or contagious, only that youve been exposed to coronavirus.
The third available kind of tests is an antibody test, thats what tells you had the virus already.
SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) New Mexico's governor is calling for $1,200 cash payments to workers who have qualified for unemployment since the pandemic began.
New Mexico lawmakers were drafting legislation Monday aimed at providing about $300 million in direct economic aid for the unemployed, small businesses, and emergency housing subsidies. They're set to meet Tuesday in a special session in hopes of delivering an emergency aid package before Thanksgiving.
The Cleveland Clinic's Chief Caregiver Officer Kelly Hancock urged her community to follow social distancing and mask guidelines as Covid-19 grips hundreds of those working inside of one of America's best hospitals.
"We had a record today, we saw nearly 12,000 new cases in the state of Ohio of Covid-positive patients, and so when you think about the increase and the hospitalizations that results in, it's incredible," Hancock said during a Monday evening interview on "The News with Shepard Smith." "We're experiencing close to 1,000 of our caregivers who've been affected by Covid-19, and unable to come in and care for those patients."
The Cleveland Clinic reported that 970 caregivers are out due to the virus, triple the number from two weeks ago. In the greater Cleveland area, Covid-19 cases are on the rise, according to the Ohio Department of Health. There was an average of 83 new cases between September 23-29, but between November 11-17 the average was 1,134 new cases.
Hancock told host Shepard Smith that despite the infections of its health-care workers, that the Cleveland Clinic is still able to uphold its standard of care for patients.
"Right now we have adequate staffing, we're able to mobilize our caregivers to the areas they're needed most, but we continue to meet frequently throughout the day to continue to assess the situation for both our caregivers, as well as the bed capacity," Hancock said.
The United States recorded more than 3 million new coronavirus cases this month alone. That's a quarter of all the country's cases to date, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. The U.S. has averaged 1,500 deaths per day over the past week, which is an average of more than one death every minute for the past week.
Hospitalizations have been up for 29 straight days, and over that time, the number of people hospitalized for the virus doubled, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Hancock urged that America's health-care workers need all the help they can get right now. She advised people to avoid large gatherings during the holidays, to wear masks appropriately, and frequent hand washing.
"All of this is really concerning for all of us and we need to do all of this to ensure that we can keep our caregivers at work," said Hancock.
The coronavirus casino closure is ending, with cards to be dealt, dice to roll and slot jackpots to win starting Thursday in Las Vegas and throughout Nevada. (June 4) AP Domestic
LAS VEGAS The surgeof COVID-19 in Nevadais now at "wildfire levels," and new statewide restrictions that start Tuesdaywillimpact travelers visitingthis gambling and entertainmentdestination.
"We are on a rapid trajectory that threatens to overwhelm our health care system, our frontline health workers, and your access to care," Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak announced Sunday. "So its time to act."
What does the new "statewide pause" mean forvacationers visiting The Strip?Here's whatyou need to know about the new restrictions.
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They start at 12:01 a.m.Tuesday.
The will bein place for three weeks, according to Sisolak.
They could. The biggest change tourists will experience inside resorts is a limit on the number of people allowed inside.The following places must reduce their capacity to 25 percent:
The state is in constant contact with the Nevada Gaming Control Board, Sisolak said.
"I had conversations with most of our gaming operators in the past 24 hours," Sisolak said. "I can assure you that the full force of the Nevada Gaming Control Board will be behind the implementation and the enforcement of these 25 percent requirements, and if they don't follow them, they will suffer the consequences as delineated but the gaming control board."
Those capacityrestrictionsalso apply to restaurants and bars.
The 165-foot Mega Bar inside Circa Resort & Casino.(Photo: Ed Komenda / Reno Gazette Journal)
Not without a reservation.
The statewide pause will affect all restaurants and bars that serve food in the following ways:
"I know the majority of our bars and restaurants are doing their best, but these settings are proven to be high risk because they allow the opportunity for people to remove their face coverings in indoor settings around people outside of their household," Sisolak said."Thats how the virus spreads."
Starting Tuesday the following will apply to private gatherings likely cutting into many Thanksgiving dinner party plans:
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The following limits will be in place for public gatherings:
Yes, the mandate has been expanded.
Masks are required at any time you are around someone not part of your immediatehousehold, including duringprivate gatherings inside andoutside.
The three-week restrictions do not apply or change Nevada's current health and safety protocols, such as capacity limitations for:
Editor's note: Although the governor's office said Sunday that fast food restaurants would be required to take reservations for in-person dining, the printed directives released on Monday exempt fast food restaurants and food courts from the reservation requirement. This story has been edited to reflect that change.
Contributing:Joe Jacquez, Reno Gazette Journal.
Ed Komenda writes about Las Vegas for the Reno Gazette Journal and USA Today Network. Do you care about democracy?Then support local journalism by subscribing to the Reno Gazette Journal right here.
Read or Share this story: https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2020/11/23/nevadas-covid-19-restrictions-and-las-vegas-what-you-need-know/6391161002/
Slater, 71, was first diagnosed with Covid-19 on July 13 along with his wife, his family said. After two weeks of quarantine, she recovered but he did not.
Slater's daughter, Kim Cochran, told CNN that the family became concerned when her sister went to mow their parents' lawn and noticed that Slater wasn't acting like himself.
The family called their physician and he suggested they call the paramedics because Slater also suffers from Parkinson's disease and Rheumatoid arthritis. The arrived paramedics and checked on Slater, but they chose not to take him to the hospital.
The next day, on July 26, his oxygen levels dropped, so Cochran said the family decided to take him to the emergency room in St. Luke's east in Lee's Summit, Kansas, where he was diagnosed with double pneumonia caused by Covid-19.
"About a week later, after putting him on the ventilator, they told us that he was the sickest patient in the hospital ... and there was nothing else they could do for him there," Cochran said.
It was then recommended that he go to another hospital in Kansas City, St. Luke's Hospital - Plaza, but the doctors told the family that there was a chance he wouldn't make it through the transport.
"So we said no, leave him where he is at, but our family physician said, 'If they give you a glimmer of hope, you take it. If he dies in transport, that's God's calling,' so we decided to let him be transported," Cochran said.
His family prayed for him to pull through
Slater survived the transport and a day later, on August 6, he was put on ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, a therapy that adds oxygen to the blood and pumps it through the body.
"They said Covid just went in like a bomb and destroyed his lungs," Cochran said. "Two weeks later, every time they tried to remove him from ECMO he would crash immediately."
Then one day the family spoke with Slater via video conference and encouraged him to be strong. They told him how many people were praying for him to pull through.
The nurse called the family an hour later to tell them they had turned the ECMO off and Slater was breathing and doing everything on his own.
"Every day we would call and just get stable, stable," Cochran said.
Then, Cochran said the hospital called and told her mother that she would need to have a conversation with the doctor at the end of the week.
"It totally blew us away. Because at this point they never led us one direction or another," Cochran said. "We always knew he was still critical... she said they had never had anyone as sick as him make it passed this point."
Slater tested negative in September
A few days later Cochran, her sisters and her mother went to dinner to discuss Slater's health.
"We had all decided we weren't giving up," Cohran said. "We didn't feel like it was time. And then our waitress came to the table and her name tag was Hope, and we knew from that point on that he was going to be okay."
The next week, Cochran's mother called the doctor. The family found out that they originally intended to discuss turning off Slater's life support, but in a number of days he had turned the corner.
The doctors were still cautious because of how sick he was, but they knew he could be okay.
On September 18, Slater finally tested negative for Covid-19, and he started to be slowly removed from all of the machines. He was moved to a medical rehab facility, where he would remain for the next seven weeks.
Slater: 'Just don't give up hope'
After 96 days, Slater finally came off of the ventilator.
"It's just a medical miracle," Cochran said. "He was moved to another facility for two weeks and they told us there was no way he would be home before Christmas."
Slater was wheeled out of the hospital on Friday, where his waiting family was waiting for him.
"When they said no one had ever made it passed that point, someone has to set the bar, and he set the bar," Cochran said.
Slater helped to tell his story alongside his daughter and had one thing to say about the experience.
"Just don't give up hope," Slater told CNN.
The family said they are thankful to all of the hospital staff that helped take care of their dad.
"We just want to tell the story because we don't want anyone to give up," Cochran said. "You just can't give up."
NORTON SHORES, MI Mona Shores Public Schools will shift all students to fully remote learning next week as coronavirus cases surge in Muskegon County, where the COVID-19 test positivity rate is currently 22%.
While students in grades 9-12 are already taking classes virtually due to a statewide mandate closing all high schools and colleges, Mona Shores students in grades PreK-8 will shift to online-only learning beginning Monday, Nov. 30, according to an email from Superintendent Bill OBrien.
OBrien cited Muskegon Countys positivity rate, as well as the upcoming holiday season, as the reason for switching to virtual learning for all students.
With the upcoming holidays we have a proactive plan to do our part to try to slow the spread in our community, county, and state, OBrien said in the message to district families.
This decision has been one of the hardest yet as we have worked around the clock, seven days a week to keep our students in school. We are at that point where it is now much bigger than just us.
All students will be in fully remote learning from Nov. 30 until Dec. 14. For the week of Dec. 14-18, all students, including grades 9-12, will return for a week of in-person learning before leaving for winter break.
The week of face-to-face instruction will give students an opportunity to replenish their at-home learning materials and check in with teachers on any areas they may be struggling with, OBrien said.
After holiday break, which is scheduled for Dec. 21-Jan. 1, students will continue remote learning for two weeks beginning Jan. 4. In-person learning will resume for all students on Tuesday, Jan. 19.
The schedule was built with a two-week remote learning period following each major holiday, OBrien said. This is a proactive mitigation effort to avoid COVID-19 spread after the holidays.
With families gathering, college students returning home, and people traveling there is likely to be more opportunity for COVID-19 to spread, he wrote. The two week shift to remote learning following the holidays allows for a district-wide quarantine period and allows the possibility of spread in our schools and community to decrease dramatically.
There are currently three elementary students, two elementary staff, one middle school student and two high school students who have recently tested positive for COVID-19 across the district, according to the Mona Shores data dashboard.
Daily cases of the novel coronavirus have skyrocketed in Muskegon County over the past month. There have been 2,137 new cases over the past seven days, out of the total 6,195 cases reported in Muskegon County since the start of the pandemic.
A total of 7,889 students and staff have been infected by coronavirus in school-related outbreaks, a 9% increase over last week, according to data released Monday by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The state health department ordered all Michigan high schools and colleges to move to online classes for three weeks in response to surging coronavirus cases. Most West Michigan K-8 schools also moved online, although elementary and middle schools can still conduct in-person learning if the local district allows it.
To help you navigate this complicated fall, were pleased to offer you a simpler way to get all of your education news: Our new Michigan Schools: Education in the COVID Era newsletter delivered right to your inbox. To receive this newsletter, simply click here to sign up.
More on MLive:
In-person classes ending for some K-8 West Michigan students after state closes high schools due to COVID-19 surge
Number infected by coronavirus outbreaks in Michigan schools increased 9% last week
How COVID-19 stopped 4,000 sea gulls from hatching chicks
Captain Robert "Bobby" Rocha and Scott Davidson, a communication specialist and paramedic, had been in the hospital "for a while" before succumbing to the virus, Fire Chief Donna Lake said.
"All of us standing here ... were close personal friends with the people we lost," the chief said Sunday during a news conference. "They're all tenured employees, so we grew up together on this department. We work together, we fight together, we live together, we eat together, we do everything like families do at work."
With first responders interacting daily with people who may be infected, following those measures helps protect professionals on the front lines, Lake said.
"When September 11 happened, first responders were on the front line then," she said. "In this pandemic, we're on the front line."
First responders know their jobs are risky and continue to go out on calls as the pandemic worsens, "not knowing if today's the day that they may come in contact with somebody that is actively Covid positive," Lake said.
The loss of Rocha, 60, and Davidson, 45, is going to make it even more difficult to keep up morale, Lake said. Their coronavirus deaths follow that of EMT Billy Birmingham, who died in April after contracting the virus, city officials said.
Seventy-three members of the Kansas City Fire Department are currently infected with Covid-19, Lake said, with 201 KCFD employees testing positive since the start of the pandemic.
"The biggest way we can honor people and the biggest way we can help prevent the spread of Covid is to do all the things that have been recommended: wearing a mask, washing your hands, social distancing and really shortening and creating a pod of people that you can trust and be around," Lake said.
"Save that for the date we can get out of this pandemic and that we can all come back come together as friends and family," she said.
CNN's Melissa Alonso contributed to this report.
1. How COVID-19 is affecting the globe
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 have now passed 58.6 million globally, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The number of confirmed deaths stands at more than 1.38 million.
The border between Australia's two largest states - New South Wales and Victoria - has reopened after closing for only the second time in 101 years as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
South Korean authorities have tightened restrictions in response to an increase in cases. Bars and nightclubs will be closed, on-site dining at restaurants and cafes restricted and religious gatherings limited in Seoul and nearby regions from tomorrow.
France will ease lockdown rules in three steps over the coming weeks, according to a government spokesman. There will be three steps to [lockdown] easing in view of the health situation and of risks tied to some businesses: a first step around Dec. 1, then before the year-end holidays, and then from January 2021, Gabriel Attal told Le Journal Du Dimanche.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that the post-COVID-19 economy must be more sustainable. There is a will to learn from the pandemic and to make the economy more sustainable, she told journalists on Sunday following the G20 summit.
The COVID-19 vaccine developed by the University of Oxford stops 70% of people developing symptoms, a large-scale trial has shown.
The number of new cases continues to vary significantly around the world.
Image: Our World in Data
2. Confirmed US cases pass 12 million
Confirmed cases of coronavirus have passed 12 million in the United States. Reuters data suggests the growth in new infections has increased, with it taking just six days to go from 11 to 12 million.
Officials and experts have warned that travel and multi-household celebrations for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday could make the situation worse. The US Centers for Disease Control has issued a strong recommendation to Americans to refrain from all kinds of travel over Thanksgiving.
Dr. Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser for the government's vaccine development effort, said yesterday that vaccine shots could reach the first Americans by the middle of December.
I would expect, maybe on day two after approval on the 11th or 12th of December, hopefully the first people will be immunized across the United States, he said on CNN.
3. G20 to strive for fair global access
We will spare no effort to ensure their affordable and equitable access for all people," the final communique said.
In 2000, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance was launched at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, with an initial pledge of $750 million from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
The aim of Gavi is to make vaccines more accessible and affordable for all - wherever people live in the world.
Along with saving an estimated 10 million lives worldwide in less than 20 years,through the vaccination of nearly 700 million children, - Gavi has most recently ensured a life-saving vaccine for Ebola.
At Davos 2016, we announced Gavi's partnership with Merck to make the life-saving Ebola vaccine a reality.
The Ebola vaccine is the result of years of energy and commitment from Merck; the generosity of Canadas federal government; leadership by WHO; strong support to test the vaccine from both NGOs such as MSF and the countries affected by the West Africa outbreak; and the rapid response and dedication of the DRC Minister of Health. Without these efforts, it is unlikely this vaccine would be available for several years, if at all.
Read more about the Vaccine Alliance, and how you can contribute to the improvement of access to vaccines globally - in our Impact Story.
There is a clear recognition from the G20: If we leave any country behind, we will all be behind, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told the closing news conference.
