More than seven months later, it's been revealed that the legendary performer's donation helped fund Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine, which this week became the second coronavirus vaccine with a stunningly high success rate.Parton's name appears in the preliminary report on the vaccine among sponsors like the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which Dr. Anthony Fauci heads, and Emory University. She originally donated to Vanderbilt University Medical Center in honor of her friend and Vanderbilt professor of surgery Dr. Naji Abumrad. The Moderna vaccine is 94.5% effective against coronavirus, according to early data released this week by the company. Vaccinations could begin as soon as late December, Fauci said, though they'll be made available first to high-risk groups like health care workers, the elderly and people with underlying medical conditions. Covid-19 has surged since Parton first made her donation. Then, there were just over 200,000 reported Covid-19 cases in the US. Now, there are over 11.2 million cases and nearly 250,000 Americans have died. Parton recognized then the severity of the virus and urged her fans to donate to Vanderbilt Health's Covid-19 research fund, which has raised more than $98,000 of its $250,000 goal. Her gift was first used toward research for interim Covid-19 treatments while the vaccine was being developed, she said in an April appearance on NBC's "Today."
"I felt like this was the time for me to open my heart and my hand and try to help," she said in her "Today" appearance.
CNN has reached out to Moderna and representatives for Parton and is waiting to hear back.
CNN's Elizabeth Cohen contributed to this report.
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White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx speaks during a news conference with the coronavirus task force at the White House in Washington on Thursday, November 19. Birx became the first White House coronavirus task force official to speak at a briefing from the podium while wearing a face mask on Thursday.
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Medical workers and patients are seen at a temporary hospital for coronavirus patients in the Krylatskoye Ice Palace in Moscow, Russia, on Wednesday, November 18. Russia says as of November 16, more than 33,000 people have died of Covid-19. But that number is disputed by critics who say the Kremlin is underreporting the numbers.
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Medical staff transport a patient to a waiting medical flight, to be evacuated to another hospital, at the Lyon-Bron Airport in France on Monday, November 16.
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Spc. Demetrie Barnett of the Nevada National Guard administers a Covid-19 test to North Las Vegas City Councilwoman Pamela Goynes-Brown during a preview of a free drive-through testing site in the parking garage of the Texas Station Gambling Hall & Hotel in Las Vegas on November 12.
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A resident of the Domenico Sartor nursing home in Castelfranco Veneto, near Venice, Italy, hugs her daughter, right, during a visit on November 11, through a plastic screen in a so-called hug room.
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A soldier wearing full PPE waits at a window for a colleague's swab as they practice for the arrival of members of the public inside a rapid testing center at a tennis center in Liverpool on November 6.
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A medical worker looks away as she provides care to a Covid-19 patient in the Private Hospital de la Loire in Saint-Etienne, France, November 6.
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Commuters ride a bus in Beijing during rush hour on Monday, October 26.
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A boy watches as a health worker tests someone for Covid-19 in Hyderabad, India, on Tuesday, October 27.
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People shop at an outside market in Berlin on October 27.
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A medic sits in an ambulance in Kommunarka, Russia, on October 27.
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Volunteers at a cemetery in Yangon, Myanmar, bury someone believed to have died from Covid-19.
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People wait in a line to vote early in New York City on Saturday, October 24. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the state of New York is allowing early voting for the first time.
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An oversized surgical mask is displayed on the front of a house in San Francisco. The homeowner put it there ahead of Halloween.
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A cyclist takes pictures of a public art project set up on the DC Armory Parade Ground in Washington, DC. An estimated 240,000 flags were planted to represent lives lost to Covid-19. The display, created by local artist Susanne Brennan Firstenberg, will be on display for two weeks.
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Medical staff use a biocontainment stretcher to transfer a Covid-19 patient to a hospital in Varese, Italy, on October 19.
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A dog is trained to sniff out Covid-19 at a national veterinary school in Paris on October 15.
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A health worker in Manila, Philippines, sits behind a booth October 6 during mass testing for public transportation drivers.
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A security guard gives hand sanitizer to students as they arrive at the Prabhat secondary school on the outskirts of Kathmandu, Nepal, on October 6.
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A man from the Mouride Brotherhood reads a book with poems written by Cheikh Amadou Bamba as he stands in line to enter the Grand Mosque of Touba in Touba, Senegal, on October 5.
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Tourists crowd together in Beijing as they move slowly on a section of the Great Wall of China on October 4. The scene would have been unthinkable just months ago.
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A paramedic adjusts a patient's face mask outside an Athens, Greece, nursing home where dozens of people tested positive for Covid-19.
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A student has her temperature checked before entering classes at a school in Thankot, Nepal, on September 30.
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A health worker tests a student for Covid-19 after classes started at a college in the Indian village of Jhargaon on September 30.
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Medical staff hold swabs for rapid Covid-19 tests at a high school in Rome on September 28.
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Medical residents sit in the middle of a street as they protest their working conditions in Barcelona, Spain, on September 28.
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Members of the LSU marching band sit apart from one another before a college football game in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on September 26.
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A grave digger in Jakarta, Indonesia, plants a cross in a public cemetery, part of which is reserved for suspected Covid-19 victims, on September 26.
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A cemetery worker in La Paz, Bolivia, pushes a cart with a plastic-wrapped coffin on September 23.
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An adviser waits for people behind a plastic glass screen during a job fair in Barcelona, Spain, on September 21.
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A woman watches the band Jikustik during a drive-in concert in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, on September 20.
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Ultra-Orthodox Jews are separated by plastic shields as they pray in a synagogue in Bnei Brak, Israel, on September 18.
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A health worker in Hyderabad, India, takes a break in front of a fan on September 17.
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Brides and grooms wait for the Pope's arrival at the San Damaso courtyard in the Vatican on September 16.
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Maria Hernandez, top, embraces her aunt through a transparent curtain at a nursing home in San Salvador, El Salvador, on September 11.
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A coronavirus victim is buried at a cemetery in Jakarta, Indonesia, on September 8.
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Young students make sure they are spread out from one another as they stand in a line before entering a classroom in Pamplona, Spain, on September 7.
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A girl cries as she is tested for Covid-19 at a drive-thru testing station in East Jerusalem on September 6.
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People wear face masks and sit spread apart at the opening ceremony of the Venice Film Festival in Italy on September 2.
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Nuns of the Missionaries of Charity, the order founded by Mother Teresa, wear masks and face shields as they distribute food to the poor and homeless in Kolkata, India, on August 26.
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Cemetery workers carry Wilson Gil's remains on the outskirts of Lima, Peru, on August 26. Gil died of complications related to Covid-19, according to family members.
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Workers in New Delhi prepare to cremate the body of a coronavirus victim on August 22.
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A health worker administers a Covid-19 test in the Indian village of Kusumpur on August 17.
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People gather in Little Venice on the Aegean Sea island of Mykonos, Greece, on August 16.
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Thousands of people gather for an electronic music festival at a water park in Wuhan, China, on August 15. The novel coronavirus was first reported in Wuhan late last year.
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Funeral workers in Peru's Uchumayo District bury a coffin in a massive burial ground for low-income people and unidentified victims of Covid-19.
PAXTON (CBS) Not a lot of 82-year-olds are willing to volunteer for a vaccine trial, but Mary Jo Moynihan is not your average 82-year-old. She has a great attitude. If I died, that was one of the side effects listed was death, but Im not afraid, Moynihan said.
She volunteered for the Pfizer Covid Vaccine trial in September. She got two doses and goes back weekly to Boston Medical Center to give blood. I think one of two things. I got the placebo or its one heck of a great vaccine because I had no side effects whatsoever, Moynihan said.
Mary Jo was driven to volunteer because of what happened 49 years ago. Her daughter became ill with diabetes and a medical trial in Canada produced a treatment.
Its the right thing to do, Moynihan said. Somebody has to do it.
A final analysis of the Phase 3 trial of Pfizers coronavirus vaccine shows it was 95% effective in preventing infections.
Every day and everyweek, state and local health departments post new caches of coronavirus case numbers and metrics online. This data is used by state officials to determine whether its safe to loosen COVID-19 restrictions andlet businesses, entertainment venues and restaurants remain open,or if they need more interventions to clamp down on the virus spread. The numbers are public, presumably so everyone else can make the same decisions about their personal lives.
We share the data with you so that you can be armed with the knowledge to keep yourself safe, your families and your community safe, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said at a press briefing this week.
The data that health officials generate can provide a general sense of the epidemic,but how residents should apply that information isnt always straightforward, saysDr. Benjamin Linas, an epidemiologist at Boston Medical Center. The numbers alone dont tell you when its time to start booting people from your coronavirus bubble, for example.
I understand how to interpret the data, but what you do with that knowledge is a much more difficult discussion, Linas says. Theres no threshold for when youre supposed to not see your friends.
To get the same overview of COVID-19 your state and area officials use to guide policies, Linas says you should first look at three main numbers.
Total Number Of Tests Performed
Here's why this matters.If the number of tests being performed is high and growing, you can have a little more confidence in the other numbers youre seeing because the sample size is larger. If the number of tests is trending up or down, that may also influence trends in other metrics.
Cases Per 100,000 People
Massachusettspublishes the average number of cases per 100,000 peopleover the last two weeks for every city and town in its weekly public health report. You can check to see if this number is rising over time by looking at past reports. Linas has also worked on a more sophisticated metric that uses average number of cases, total testingand other pieces of data to calculate how quickly the coronavirus seems to be spreading.
Just remember, if cases per 100,000 people are going up, but the number of tests is also trending up, COVID may not actually be spreading more rapidly. A greater number of tests casts a wider net and thus will find more cases, even if COVID isn't accelerating.
In isolation, it can be a little bit deceiving. Because youre testing more and more people, thats how youre finding more cases, Linas says. If you combine this with the next metric though, the test positivity percentage, those two things integrate and work nicely together.
Test Positivity Percentage
This figure is the percentage of positive tests in the entire pool of coronavirus tests each day. If cases per 100,000 are going down and the test positivity percentage is also going down, thats a good sign. If cases per 100,000 are going up, but test positivity percentage is going down, then you shouldnt panic just yet.It could reflect an increase in testing.
If [test positivity percentage and cases per 100,000] are going in opposite directions, that might be a good sign that you actually dont have more COVID, Linas says. Those three metrics together are really helpful to get a better sense of the true epidemic, and its what I look at to give my hundred-thousand-foot view of like how its going.
General Weaknesses In The Data
The official numbers are still limited, points out Caroline Buckee, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. While the state is doing far more daily testing now than last spring, for example, the overwhelming majority of people are not being tested regularly. Without regular, widespread testing and more extensive contact tracing, it's nearly impossible to pinpoint specific settings where transmission is most common.
Some of thatdata is becoming available, but Buckee says there isnt enough to say definitively which types of places, businesses and industries people ought to avoid.
We know there are certain high-risk settings like indoor dining and so on. Trying to get a handle on where clusters of cases are occurring is really important, Buckee says. "It would be nice to see more detailed data broken down demographically and geographically [as well]. That will help us live life more normally through this winter because we'll be able to hone in on the riskiest places and protect the most vulnerable communities and people."
So far, state data shows the vast majority of coronavirus clusters have been identified among people who live in the same household. But contact tracers have also identified clusters at schools and daycare facilities, sports activities and industrial settings.
So, What Should You Do?
It may seem like avoiding the question, but there are no perfect answers.
At the moment, there isnt any specific guidance from the state that says if cases per 100,000 hit a certain point and test positivity reaches a certain point, its time to restrict your social circle or avoid friends backyards. This means everyone is looking at the data and evaluating how much risk theyre willing to take with activities like socializing or restaurant dining.
That's tough to do even if you understand all the numbers coming from health officials, Linas says.
Our Thanksgiving plan was what we usually do thats a gathering of 11. But then I was involved with the school Thanksgiving policy and realized, Im making this policy. At the same time, our plan would be in violation of this policy. So, I canceled all of our plans, Linas says. Theres no secret cabal of health professionals with exactly the right answer. All of us are casting around because its confusing, and the guidance is not crystal clear.
Linas says it might help if the state did issue specific thresholds for behavior. He says with everyone making their own decisions, having different holiday plans or socializing, we aren't fighting the virus as effectively as we could.
I dont know if theres an objectively true threshold or number that makes us step back. But even if ultimately a threshold is somewhat arbitrary, having that clear is important so that we can all be pulling the oars at the same time, he says.
And, he adds, no matter what you decide to do wearing a mask, keeping physical distance and hand-washing are still paramount.
Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., and Gov. Kristi Noem greet President Trump and first lady Melania Trump upon arrival in Rapid City, S.D, in July. Trump was en route to Mount Rushmore National Memorial. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption
Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., and Gov. Kristi Noem greet President Trump and first lady Melania Trump upon arrival in Rapid City, S.D, in July. Trump was en route to Mount Rushmore National Memorial.
One of America's governors most skeptical about COVID-19 has been South Dakota's Kristi Noem. She's loudly refused to impose any shutdowns or a statewide mask mandate.
Noem's devotion to keeping her state open has made her a celebrity in the Republican Party.
She campaigned for President Trump in 17 states, and touted her own record along the way.
"What I did in South Dakota is what we say Republicans always believe," Noem says. "We just did it. We just did it, and look at what is happening in our state."
One of the things happening in South Dakota is an infection rate that's among the worst in the nation, at about 8,000 cases per 100,000 people.
In Vermont, another small, rural state with a Republican governor, Gov. Phil Scott has embraced safety measures, and the differences are pretty stark. Like South Dakota, Vermont has fewer than 1 million residents, most of whom don't live in cities. It has about 500 cases per 100,000 people. That's the lowest rate in the nation.
Scott has embraced statewide shutdowns and mandated masks. When he reopened the state's economy, he did it slowly.
"My decisions throughout this pandemic, from the closures and other mitigation steps in March and April, to the methodical reopening of our economy, hospitals and schools has been based on the data, the science and the recommendations of our health experts," Scott said.
Vermont has recorded a total of 3,310 confirmed coronavirus infections since the pandemic began. South Dakota has recorded more new coronavirus infections than that so far this week, with 5,559 confirmed cases. And South Dakota has more than 10 times as many total COVID-19 deaths.
Vermont Health Commissioner Mark Levine says his state chose a balanced approach.
"We felt we could reopen the economy and do the appropriate public health measures for the pandemic in parallel, and that you didn't have to sacrifice one for the other," he said.
In September, South Dakota had the nation's second lowest unemployment rate. Vermont's was third.
When the pandemic began, both states had low infection numbers for several months.
Over the summer, things changed in South Dakota. Noem repeatedly questioned the effectiveness of masks.
"I'm opposed to a statewide mask mandate," she's said. "I've been clear about that."
In July, she hosted President Trump for fireworks at Mount Rushmore; 7,000 people attended.
In August, Noem welcomed hundreds of thousands of people to the annual Sturgis motorcycle rally in her state.
Around that same time in Vermont, Scott imposed a statewide mask mandate and gave away 300,000 cloth face coverings.
"I'm asking you to look at the data the real data, not just something you see on Facebook and realize that the science is real," Scott said, "and that wearing a mask will not only protect the gains we've made, but also help your family members and friends stay healthy."
Now South Dakota is suffering an extended COVID-19 surge. The number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals has quadrupled in the past two months. But that hasn't changed Noem's outlook.
"Business lockdowns have not slowed down infection spreads and increases in positive cases," she said, despite evidence to the contrary. "And even mask mandates [have] not slowed down the spread or prevented other states from becoming hot spots."
Noem said that on a day when South Dakota reported almost 1,400 new coronavirus infections.
Vermont recently had its first day with more than 100 new cases. Scott responded with new mitigation measures.
"I know this is incredibly difficult and frustrating, especially with the holidays right around the corner," Scott said. "But it's necessary, and we need Vermonters' help to get this back under control."
Vermont's new measures limit social gatherings. They restrict the operations of bars, social clubs and restaurants. They suspend recreational sports. And they mandate teleworking whenever possible.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) The Tennessee Department of Health hasconfirmed additional cases and deaths related to COVID-19 across the state on Friday, November 20.
The total COVID-19 case count for Tennessee is 331,532 as of November 20, 2020 including 4,202 deaths, 2,035 current hospitalizations and 287,908 are inactive/recovered. [Percent positive for today is 14.76% ] For the full report with additional data: https://t.co/Psc3HfgZ8j. pic.twitter.com/VdbYyT6Q9M
The health department reported 3,444 new cases, bringing the state to 331,532 total cases. Of those cases, 306,892 are confirmed and24,640 are probable.
TDH also confirmed 74 additional deaths, bringing Tennessee up to4,202 total deaths.
With 74 deaths being reported on Friday, this week has now seen the most deaths since the COVID-19 pandemic began with 325 deaths. November is also the second deadliest month for Tennessee with 849 deaths. October remains the deadliest month with 899 deaths.
The 74 deaths reported Friday is also the fifth most deaths ever reported for Tennessee:
Out of the confirmed positive cases, 287,908 are listed as inactive/recovered, an increase of 4,123 in the last 24 hours.
There are 2,035 people currently hospitalized in the state.
Tennessee has processed4,215,908 tests. The latest update added 21,287 tests to the states total.
Tennessee has reported more new COVID-19 cases during November than any other month, surpassing the 64,533 new cases reported in October.
The latest report from theWhite House Coronavirus Task Force says the spread of COVID-19 in Tennessee over the last month has become deeper and unyielding,citing Halloween and related activities as contributors.
The information was included in a document, dated Nov. 15, obtained by ABC News. The report, which is provided to governors across the United States, suggests 47 states and the District of Columbia are in the red zone for coronavirus cases, including Tennessee.
Several Tennessee schools districts have announced early closures ahead of the Thanksgiving break due to COVID-19 cases and quarantines.
With cases on the rise, and many districts taking action, teachers demanded action from the governor.
Having clear direction from the Governor, and the Commissioner of Health, and the Commissioner of Education to help school superintendents, directors of schools, administrators make the best possible decisions for the health safety and well-being of Tennessee students is paramount. I think were lacking in that area, quite frankly, said Tennessee Education Association President Beth Brown.
In aletter to Governor Bill Lee Tuesday, Brown stated the teachers union needed the state to provide more protections for educators and students.
A group of Tennessee physicians on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic is urging Governor Lee to issue a state-wide mask mandate as many hospitals struggle to deal with the influx of sick patients.
On Monday, COVID-19 vaccine candidate,Moderna, said its vaccine appears to be 94.5% effective, according to preliminary data from the companys still ongoing study. Last week, competitorPfizer Inc. announced its own COVID-19 vaccine appeared similarly effective.
Tennessee is one of thefour states chosen for Pfizers U.S. COVID-19 Immunization Pilot Program.
Pfizer and BioNTech will seek emergency government approval for their coronavirus vaccine, as the U.S. aims to begin administering doses by the end of the year. Moderna is expected to file for emergency approval for its own vaccine candidate in the coming weeks.
COVID-19 in Nashville
Public and private gatherings in Nashville and Davidson County will be limited to a maximum of eight people beginning the week of Thanksgiving to help slow the spread of COVID-19.
During his weekly news briefing Thursday morning,Nashville Mayor John Cooper said the public health orders will be amended to restrict all gatherings to eight people, whether at a restaurant or in a backyard, starting Monday, Nov. 23.
Metro Nashville Public Schools Director Dr. Adrienne Battle issued a warning Monday for parents and staff that ifNashvilles COVID-19 numbers do not improve by Thanksgiving, all Metro Schools will close and return to all-virtual learning on Nov. 30.
According to MNPS, Dr. Battle plans to make a final decision by Tuesday, Nov. 24, the last day of school before Thanksgiving break. The all-virtual learning option would last for three weeks until the start of winter holiday break on Dec. 17.
COVID-19 in Kentucky
On Wednesday, KentuckyGovernor Andy Beshear announced new COVID-19 restrictions to take effect across the state this week.
Beginning November 20 at 5 p.m., restaurants and bars must close indoor dining. Pick-up, delivery, and outdoor service will still be allowed. Indoor venues, including event spaces and theaters, will be limited to 25 people per room. This includes funeral and wedding gatherings.
Indoor social gatherings must be limited to groups from no more than two different households, with a maximum of eight people per gathering.
Stay with News 2 for continuing coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
NYSE
Stocks could continue to struggle with the twin themes of the spreading virus and a potentially robust recovery, once a vaccine is deployed next year.
In the coming week, the restrictions the spreading virus is imposing on the economy will be clear, when many Americans choose to stay at home over the Thanksgiving Day holiday and partake in much smaller celebrations.
"On the Covid side, there will be more lockdowns, but I think the message is loud and clear. 'People: Don't be cavalier around Thanksgiving,'" said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat. Thanksgiving traditionally kicks off the holiday shopping season, an important time of the year for the economy which could be hobbled by Covid. The U.S. reported 182,000 new cases Thursday.
Lee said the market will continue to feel the push pull of the drag from the pandemic against the promise of recovery, seen in the rebound of cyclical stocks. Cyclical sectors industrials and materials were both up about 1% for the week, and financials were up a half percent. But tech and communications, both big tech and growth sectors that benefited from the stay-at-home trade, were lower.
"I think stocks are kind of consolidating and maybe it's going to go on for a couple of days," Lee said. He added that stocks could start to perk up late in the week, and investors are expecting stocks to head higher into year end. "The cyclicals have held up like champs, and the small caps, and value have been really holding up," Lee said.
Stocks were mixed in the past week, with the Dow and S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq up 0.2%. The Russell 2000 was the star performer, with a gain of 2.4% for the week. The Russell is up 16% since the beginning of October.
The S&P shot up sharply on Nov. 9 when Pfizer announced its vaccine as 95% effective, but it never regained that intraday high of 3,645 and has since traded in a sideways pattern. The S&P 500 closed at 3,557 Friday, down 0.8% for the week.
JPMorgan economists warned Friday that the "winter will be grim" and they forecast that the restrictions due to the virus will drag on the economy, resulting in a negative first quarter. They expect a strong rebound in the second and third quarter, once the vaccine is distributed and an anticipated fiscal stimulus program takes hold.
"It's hard for some investors to look over that period and see the recovery. I think this is where we are now," said Katie Nixon, Northern Trust Wealth Management CIO. She said the concern is how much damage the restrictions will do as the virus spreads at a record rate. "This is happening and with exponential force right now. It's just shocking to see the numbers and how state and local authorities are trying to deal with it in a variety of ways."
But Nixon said she's very positive on the market longer term, and the economy will heal once the vaccine becomes available. She said fiscal stimulus from Washington would help.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell signaled he would again discuss a package with Democrats, and that funds that were being used for Fed programs could be diverted to a fiscal package.
The Treasury Thursday indicated it would not continue five of the Fed's emergency program from when they expire at year end, surprising some in the markets. The Fed objected, but the markets took the development in stride, as traders expect the programs to be reinstated if financial conditions warrant it.
The Fed releases the minutes of its last meeting Wednesday afternoon, and that could be important as traders are watching to see if the central bank reveals any detail of discussions on potential changes to its asset buying program. There is widespread speculation the Fed could tweak its $80 billion Treasury buying program at the December meeting to include more longer duration notes and bonds, a move that should hold down already low long-term rates.
Also in the week ahead, there is some key data including personal income and spending and durable goods on Wednesday. Consumer confidence is Tuesday and consumer sentiment is released Wednesday. There are also a few Fed speakers, who will be watched closely for any comments on the expiring programs.
Any word on fiscal stimulus talks will get market attention, though there is skepticism anything will before next year. If a package is not passed, the unemployment benefits going to 12 million Americans will end at the end of December, and mortgage forbearance will end. Bank of America economists said if there is no stimulus package to prevent these things, there would be a 1.5 percentage point drag on first quarter growth.
"The biggest thing we need to do is prevent bankruptcies and prevent unemployment from rising," Nixon said. She said the labor market has stalled, and it is important to avoid the deep scarring from bankruptcies.
She said it is not too late for investors to get in on the rotation into growth,and some investors are worried they didn't get in on time. "Value has so much to go to catch up on growth," she said.
Monday
9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
1:00 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
Tuesday
9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices
9:00 a.m. FHFA/home prices
10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence
11:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
12:00 p.m. New York Fed President John William
Wednesday
8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims
8:30 a.m. Durable goods
8:30 a.m. Q3 GDP second reading
8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators
10:00 a.m. Personal income/spending
10:00 a.m. New home sales
10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
2:00 p.m. Fed meeting minutes
Thursday
Thanksgiving Day holiday
Markets closed
Friday
Stock market closes at 1 p.m.
For immediate release: November 20, 2020
Boston, MA Testing half the population weekly with inexpensive, rapid-turnaround COVID-19 tests would drive the virus toward elimination within weekseven if those tests are significantly less sensitive than gold-standard clinical tests, according to a new study published today by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and University of Colorado Boulder researchers.
Such a strategy could lead to personalized stay-at-home orders without shutting down restaurants, bars, retail stores, and schools, the authors said.
Our big picture finding is that, when it comes to public health, its better to have a less sensitive test with results today than a more sensitive one with results tomorrow, said lead author Daniel Larremore, an assistant professor of computer science at CU Boulder. Rather than telling everyone to stay home so you can be sure that one person who is sick doesnt spread it, we could give only the contagious people stay-at-home orders so everyone else can go about their lives.
For the study, which was published online November 20, 2020 in Science Advances, Larremore teamed up with collaborators at CUs BioFrontiers Institute and Harvard Chan School to explore whether test sensitivity, frequency, or turnaround time is most important to curb the spread of COVID-19.
The researchers scoured available literature on how viral load climbs and falls inside the body during an infection, when people tend to experience symptoms, and when they become contagious.
They then used mathematical modeling to forecast the impact of screening with different kinds of tests on three hypothetical scenarios: in 10,000 individuals; in a university-type setting of 20,000 people; and in a city of 8.4 million.
When it came to curbing spread, they found that frequency and turnaround time are much more important than test sensitivity.
For instance, in one scenario in a large city, widespread twice-weekly testing with a rapid but less sensitive test reduced the degree of infectiousness, or R0(R naught), of the virus by 80%. But twice-weekly testing with a more sensitive PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, which takes up to 48 hours to return results, reduced infectiousness by only 58%. In other scenarios, when the amount of testing was the same, the rapid test always reduced infectiousness better than the slower, more sensitive PCR test.
Thats because about two-thirds of infected people have no symptoms and as they await their results, they continue to spread the virus.
This paper is one of the first to show we should worry less about test sensitivity and, when it comes to public health, prioritize frequency and turnaround, said senior co-author Roy Parker, director of the BioFrontiers Institute and a Howard Hughes Medical Institute investigator.
The study also demonstrates the power of frequent testing in shortening the pandemic and saving lives.
In one scenario, in which 4% of individuals in a city were already infected, rapid testing three out of four people every three days reduced the number ultimately infected by 88% and was sufficient to drive the epidemic toward extinction within six weeks.
The study comes as companies and academic research centers are developing low-cost, rapid turnaround tests that could be deployed in large public settings or commercialized for do-it-yourself use.
Sensitivity levels vary widely. Antigen tests require a relatively high viral loadabout 1,000 times as much virus compared to the PCR testto detect an infection. Another test, known asRT-lamp(reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification), can detect the virus at around 100 times as much virus compared to the PCR. The benchmark PCR test typically provided by medical professionals requires as little as 5,000 to 10,000 viral RNA copies per milliliter of sample, meaning it can catch the virus very early or very late.
In the past, federal regulators and the public have been reluctant to embrace rapid tests out of concern that they may miss cases early in infection. But, in reality, an infected person can go from 5,000 particles to 1 million viral RNA copies in 18 to 24 hours, said Parker.
There is a very short window, early in infection, in which the PCR will detect the virus but something like an antigen or LAMP test wont, Parker said.
And during that time, the person often isnt contagious, he said. The authors recently used these findings to call for a shift in the way we think about test sensitivity in the New England Journal of Medicine.
These rapid tests are contagiousness tests, said senior co-author Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology and a faculty member in the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard Chan School. They are extremely effective in detecting COVID-19 when people are contagious.
They are also affordable, he added. The rapid tests can cost as little as $1 each and return results in 15 minutes. Some PCR tests can take several days.
Mina envisions a day when the government sends simple, cheap DIY tests to every home in the United States. Even if half of Americans tested themselves weekly and self-isolated if positive, the result would be profound, he said.
Within a few weeks we could see this outbreak going from huge numbers of cases to very manageable levels, Mina said.
Rapid testing could also be the key to breathing life back into former superspreader threats like football stadiums, concert venues, and airports, with patrons testing themselves on the way in and still wearing masks as a precautionary measure, Larremore said.
Less than .1% of the current cost of this virus would enable frequent testing for the whole of the U.S. population for a year, said Mina, referencing arecent economic analysispublished by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The authors say they are heartened to see that several countries have already begun testing all of their citizens, and are hopeful that the new U.S. administration has named rapid testing as a priority. On Tuesday, the Food and Drug Administration approved the first at-home rapid test.
Its time to shift the mentality around testing from thinking of a COVID test as something you get when you think you are sick to thinking of it as a vital tool to break transmission chains and keep the economy open, Larremore said.
The other Harvard Chan School author was James Hay.
This study was supported by the NIH (F32 AI145112, F30 AG063468, MURI W911NF1810208, 1DP5OD028145-01) and Howard Hughes Medical Institute.
Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 screening, Daniel B. Larremore, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M. Burke, James A. Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J. Mina, and Roy Parker, Science Advances, online November 20, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd5393
Photo: Wyss Institute at Harvard University
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FILE In this July 30, 2020 file photo, Kai Hu, a research associate transfers medium to cells, in the laboratory at Imperial College in London. Imperial College is working on the development of a COVID-19 vaccine. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth, File)
The European Union could approve two coronavirus vaccines being tested by Pfizer-BioNTech and by Moderna before the end of next month, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said Thursday.
Von der Leyen said the European Medicines Agency could give conditional marketing authorisation as early as the second half of December if all proceeds now without any problem.
Working together, US giant Pfizer and Germanys BioNTech have developed a vaccine the firms say has had successful clinical trials and have sent data to the EMA.
US biotech company Moderna has said its experimental vaccine is 95 percent effective.
The Amsterdam-based EMA will have to study test results before recommending that Brussels gives its approval, but speaking after talks with EU leaders von der Leyen was cautiously optimistic.
The European Union has contracts to reserve hundreds of millions of doses of future vaccines with BioNTech, Purevac, AstraZeneca and Sanofi if they can be brought to market.
And we continue negotiations with Moderna, and we are in talks with Novavax, von der Leyen said, adding that all 27 EU leaders had voiced support for the EU buying program.
She stressed that in the case of US firms, the EMA was in daily contact with its American equivalent the FDA.
And if all proceeds with no problems. EMA tells us that the conditional marketing authorisation for BioNTech and Moderna could happen as early as the second half of December 2020.
Earlier in the day, BioNTech co-founder Ugur Sahin told AFP that the firm was hoping for quick approval.
Shipments delayed?
We are working at full speed, he said, confirming the companies plan to apply for emergency use authorisation of their jab in the US on Friday, while European regulators will receive another batch of data next week.
There is a chance that we can receive approval from the US or Europe or both regions this year still, said Sahin, who is also BioNTechs chief executive.
We may even start delivering the vaccine in December, he added, if everyone works together very closely.
But, earlier this week, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel warned that protracted negotiations with Brussels over a contract to reserve his vaccine could delay shipments.
It is clear that with a delay this is not going to limit the total amount but it is going to slow down delivery, he told AFP, in an interview.
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have taken the lead in the global chase for a vaccine, after large-scale trial data this month showed their jabs were around 95 percent effective against Covid-19.
The twin breakthroughs have lifted hopes for an end to a pandemic that has infected more than 56 million people and caused more than 1.3 million deaths worldwide since the virus first emerged in China late last year.
Queues of cars have been forming outside testing sites run by states, counties, health care systems and pharmacies in numerous cities in recent days, including in the Chicago suburb of Arlington Heights.
"I think it's a combination of holidays coming up, but also just the uptick in the (infection) numbers out there," the hospital's Dr. George Kondylis told WBZ.
"I tried five different places before I got in this line, and none of them had any open spots or appointments," Pun told WBTS.
In the town of Saugus north of Boston, cars snaked around a testing site at a mall Tuesday night, and some people waited more than two hours, WBZ reported.
"I could not believe it when it was zig-zagging five times just to get through," Travis Morrow told WBZ about that line.
Wait times went up to 90 minutes even for those with appointments, he said.
Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said the pre-holiday scramble for tests is laying bare the nation's limited testing capacity and lack of a national testing strategy.
"I think we should just acknowledge: We don't have enough tests, our infrastructure is not working very well. And then get to fixing it, as opposed to denying it or downplaying it." Jha said. "From the beginning of this pandemic the entire administration has not taken testing seriously enough and we are paying the price of that."
Labs warn of slower testing and supply challenges
The average number of new daily cases across a week rose above 165,000 Thursday -- the highest ever recorded, and nearly five times the average seen in mid-September, when it was at a post-summer-surge low, Johns Hopkins University data show.
Clinical labs already are "facing delays or cancellations on orders for critical supplies, such as pipette tips," Khani said. Increases in wait times for test results would result, she said.
The ACLA represents lab companies such as LabCorp and Quest Diagnostics.
Quest's statement included an "appeal to personal responsibility," calling on Americans to follow the CDC's guidance on wearing masks and social distancing.
"We are committed to doing everything in our power" to meet demand, but "we can't do it alone," the company said. By following CDC guidelines, "each of us can help to reduce the spread of Covid-19, improve testing and patient care, and potentially save lives."
In a briefing with reporters this week, Adm. Dr. Brett Giroir, the White House coronavirus testing czar, said labs were generally in good shape, and that the administration was "aggressively helping states in any way that we that we can."
On Friday, he released a statement saying the government is closely monitoring turnaround times at ACLA labs, which he said were averaging just under two days.
"No one, and especially me and my team, is downplaying any aspect of the pandemic response, and anyone making that erroneous assertion is uninformed," Giroir said. "The most significant issue driving the pandemic at the moment is lack of adherence to mitigation basics: mask wearing, washing hands and maintaining distance."
Some city-run sites ask Thanksgiving travelers to stay away
For those who buck recommendations not to travel or gather with other households for Thanksgiving, health officials have offered different shades of advice on whether and how these travelers should get tested.
The city's sites are testing nearly 6,000 people daily, and results on average take 24 to 48 hours, the center said.
"If people need tests for any other reason -- like travel or visiting -- they need to go to their private provider," the email reads.
The city's health director, Dr. Grant Colfax, went further this week, discouraging any Thanksgiving visits and pre-travel testing, regardless of where that testing comes from.
"Please do not use testing to determine whether you can travel or not," Colfax said. "A negative test cannot be an excuse to put yourself or others at risk."
The tone is different in nearby Contra Costa County. Though health officials there want people to avoid Thanksgiving gatherings, they say they suspect people will ignore those warnings.
"Unfortunately, a lot of these tests people are doing for holiday planning may come at the expense of people that need a test because they have symptoms or known exposure," Wallace, the testing coordinator, told KIRO.
