[Heres what you need to know about Pfizers Covid-19 Vaccine.]
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The pandemic is still raging, but it would be hard to tell from the ecstatic stock market, which flirted with record highs thanks to promising clinical trial data on a coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech. Futures today suggest that yesterdays rally could be extended.
Hopes that the pandemic will come under control scrambled the usual pattern, with shares soaring for the sectors most linked to growth in the broad economy, like energy and banks, and the companies most affected by lockdowns, like AMC (up 51 percent), United Airlines (up 19 percent) and Macys (up 17 percent). Tech-heavy stars of the pandemic were the days biggest losers, like Peloton (down 20 percent), Zoom (down 17 percent) and Netflix (down 9 percent).
The probability of an L-shaped recovery has been significantly reduced, said Johanna Kyrklund, Schroders chief investment officer. We may finally have found the catalyst to spark a move away from the stay-at-home stocks that have benefited from lockdown, towards recovery stocks.
There are reasons to be wary. Experts cautioned that even if Pfizer wins approval for its vaccine and itll need much more data doses will be initially available to only a small sliver of the population. As our colleagues at The Morning newsletter note, there are two very different coronavirus stories happening now: While the markets are rejoicing, records for coronavirus infections are being set daily.
The key question: Are investors getting ahead of themselves? These are the types of moves that tend to run out of gas if the underlying data doesnt quickly confirm the enthusiasm, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, told The Times. The sharp turns call into question the efficiency of supposedly all-knowing markets, as the Deal Professor notes below.
Europe charges Amazon with antitrust violations. The E.U.s competition chief, Margrethe Vestager, accused the e-commerce giant of exploiting data it collects from third-party merchants to boost its own sales. We must ensure that dual-role platforms with market power, such as Amazon, do not distort competition, she said.
Most Republicans back President Trumps refusal to concede. Officials like Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, declined to rebut Mr. Trumps false claims of illegal votes and a stolen election. Separately, lawyers at Jones Day and Porter Wright, two big law firms working on Mr. Trumps legal challenges, have voiced concerns about their work.
Top SoftBank executives resign as directors. Three senior managers including Rajeev Misra, the head of the Vision Fund, and Marcelo Claure, the companys C.O.O. are stepping down from the board, amid pressure to improve SoftBanks corporate governance. (Theyll stay as executives.)
The E.U. imposes new tariffs on American goods. The $4 billion in levies, on products like aircraft and chocolate, follow a W.T.O. ruling allowing the bloc to retaliate against the U.S. over illegal subsidies to Boeing. The U.S. imposed tariffs on European goods last year after a similar ruling about Airbus.
Bill Grosss property fight with his neighbor heads to court. A trial over competing harassment claims by the famed bond investor and the entrepreneur Mark Towfiq began yesterday. Mr. Gross reportedly said he would stop blaring the Gilligans Island theme song if the neighbor dropped his complaint; a lawyer for Mr. Gross accused Mr. Towfiq of being a peeping Tom.
Steven Davidoff Solomon, a.k.a. the Deal Professor, is a professor at the U.C. Berkeley School of Law and the faculty co-director at the Berkeley Center for Law, Business and the Economy.
Recent weeks havent been good for the efficient markets hypothesis. First, the pollsters got the election wrong, failing to forecast the results for many of last weeks contests. Then, yesterday, investors got the markets wrong.
The burst upward in stocks was aided by the thesis that the calmness of a post-Trump era and divided government would be a boon to business. But make no mistake: Most of the rise was related to Pfizers vaccine news.
Whats so surprising about the rise is that it shouldnt have happened. This vaccine announcement was completely expected. Pfizer and other companies developing vaccines have been signaling a November announcement for weeks. And, in fact, some market observers have been factoring this into their advice on positioning.
Marko Kolanovic, the head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy at JPMorgan Chase, has been right all year. He called the market bottom, then called the Nasdaq high as well as the turn to consumer cyclicals. He also put out a series of reports leading up to the election noting that evidence beyond the polls suggested President Trump would do better than expected.
Mr. Kolanovics forecasts show what were missing, despite being able to access more information than ever. People are driven by fear, live in the moment and get distracted by a deluge of extreme views on social media. This has been compounded by political bias which infects everything, including assessments of the markets. Trading is consumed by momentum plays and the Robinhood crowd. People have too much information and take longer to process meaningful signals.
All of this is to say that markets may still be efficient in the long term, but these days it takes even longer for this to become clear.
Rich Handler, the C.E.O. of Jefferies, in 20 Things I Wish Someone Told Me The Day I Started My Career As An Analyst On Wall Street
The Affordable Care Act is up for debate at the Supreme Court today. If the law is invalidated, some investors have prepared for refunds on past investment income. Indeed, the litigation has generated a flurry of queries and I.R.S. protective refund claims, tax experts say.
Todays arguments are about Obamacares individual mandate, a penalty for not taking out health insurance. Challengers say that when Congress set the penalty at zero in 2017, they broke the justification given for the entire law in a previous Supreme Court ruling, which depended on treating the mandate as a tax. Theoretically, if Texas and other Republican-leaning states backed by the federal government succeed in striking down the law, refunds could be available on other taxes associated with the A.C.A.
The I.R.S. cited the case in guidance on protective refund claims earlier this year. These claims are placeholders, reserving the right to file after deadline, depending on a future event like litigation. Some filers hope that other taxes will be invalidated if the A.C.A. is struck down, including a 3.8 percent hike on net income investment passed in a 2010 companion law.
Its a long shot. Even if the individual mandate falls, the court may preserve the health care law, and even the whole law falling wouldnt guarantee some of these refunds. Because arguments for unconstitutionality of the mandate depend on a change in law that was enacted in 2017 and did not take effect until 2019, it seems very unlikely that the court will hold that the A.C.A. was invalid as far back as 2016, Jonathan Gifford, a tax attorney at Cleary Gottlieb, told DealBook. But people filing protective refund claims presumably are thinking that anything can happen, and in 2020 that certainly seems truer than ever.
The Timess Brooks Barnes writes from Los Angeles: Months after his blink-and-you-missed it tenure as TikToks C.E.O., Kevin Mayer has taken on a new role: senior adviser to Len Blavatniks Access Industries.
He will bring invaluable knowledge and insight to Access, which owns media businesses like Warner Music and the sports streaming service DAZN, Mr. Blavatnik said. Before joining TikTok, Mr. Mayer led Disney+ and had been a contender to succeed Bob Iger as Disneys C.E.O. President Trumps pressure on TikToks Chinese owners curtailed the networks global ambitions, prompting Mr. Mayer to leave after just three months.
Mr. Mayer called the Access role a key component of my future endeavors. He has also held talks to join Redbird Capital, the sports and entertainment investment firm that recently launched a SPAC.
Travel is down, but when it returns it will be a little easier to get to the airport, a meeting or anywhere else at a set time. Later today, Uber will announce a feature that the business community has long wanted: reservations.
How it works. Through Uber Reserve, riders can schedule trips up to 30 days in advance in more than 20 U.S. cities. The program, which launches next week, will present its fare upfront, as usual. If a pickup doesnt arrive on time, riders get a $50 credit.
Its a swipe at legacy car services. The new program challenges the biggest advantage that car and limo services had over on-demand ride-hailing. But it may take some time to see any impact, given how little people are moving around these days.
Deals
NextEra Energy reportedly offered to buy a rival power utility, Evergy, for $15 billion in stock, months after being rebuffed by Duke Energy. (Reuters)
VF Corporation, which owns Vans and Timberland, will buy the buzzy streetwear brand Supreme for $2.1 billion. (NYT)
Politics and policy
Renewing the Feds emergency loan programs, which are set to expire at the end of the year, has become a bitter political fight. (NYT)
Britain will require big companies to report on climate risks. (Guardian)
Tech
President-elect Joe Biden is expected to continue the Justice Departments antitrust lawsuit against Google and may file competition cases against Facebook, Amazon and Apple. (NYT)
Zoom agreed to third-party audits of its security protocols as part of a proposed settlement with the Federal Trade Commission. (Protocol)
Best of the rest
Since President Trump took office, corporate America has been thrust into the culture wars like never before. (NYT)
Four Seasons the landscaping company, not the hotel is capitalizing on its unexpected role in the Trump campaigns legal challenges, selling shirts with slogans like Lawn and Order! (NYT)
Wed like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) A COVID-19 vaccine could be distributed in Tennessee in just 24 to 48 hours after approval from FDA, a top Tennessee Department of Health official said.
At a media briefing Monday morning, Dr. Lisa Piercey, Commissioner of TDH, said Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine trial was promising for the state. Piercey was hopeful a vaccine could be ready for distribution this year.
"We know that the only effective way to achieve herd immunity is through an effective vaccine. We got some really good news this morning from Pfizer that their vaccine is shortly to come and that it's highly effective. Even more so than they have initially anticipated," said Dr. Piercey.
She also said there could be statewide distribution within days following the FDA's approval of the vaccine.
"We have been working diligently on a distribution plan," said Piercey. "As soon as we get the word that it's coming we're ready to deploy it."
News of the vaccine comes at a time when COVID-19 cases are reaching peak levels in the state. Dr. Piercey said she believes the spike will eclipse previous increases the state has seen since March.
She suggests caution when going into the holidays gathering with friends and family.
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is ready to roll out tens of millions of COVID-19 vaccines to the public with care-home residents and the elderly first in line for a jab that medics hope will allow the world to return to some semblance of normality.
News that a vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech was more than 90% effective raised hopes that there may soon be an end to the lockdowns that have cast gloom across the world by shedding millions of jobs and upending normal life.
England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam said the country was ready to roll out a vaccine once regulators approved it as safe, quipping that he had told his 78-year-old mother to be ready for a jab.
"Do I think we will then move at pace to keep up with the volumes that are supplied to us? Yes I absolutely do," Van-Tam told reporters, adding that he would love to be at the front of the queue for a vaccine but that high risk individuals should come first.
Van-Tam added that the government would not use any vaccine until the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had approved it.
"There is absolutely no chance that we will compromise on standards of safety or effectiveness," MHRA CEO June Raine said.
Asked if people should be able to jump the queue by buying a vaccine, Van-Tam said that wealth should not be a determinant for getting a vaccine.
"I think these vaccines, need to be prioritised to those who need them, and not those who can afford to pay for them privately," he said.
Britain has ordered a total of 350 million doses of the vaccines in development, including 40 million shots of Pfizer's jab. Trial data from a competing vaccine developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca is expected in the coming weeks.
"At the very top of our priority list is care home residents and people who work in care homes," said Professor Wei Shen Lim, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation which advises the government on immunisation.
Story continues
Lim said that next in line would be those above 60 and then adults with underlying health conditions.
(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge and Paul Sandle; editing by Sarah Young)
News Release
Monday, November 9, 2020
A National Institutes of Health clinical trial evaluating the safety and effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has formally concluded that the drug provides no clinical benefit to hospitalized patients. Though found not to cause harm, early findings in June when the trial was stopped indicated that the drug was not improving outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Final data and analyses of the trial, which was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), part of NIH, will appear online Nov. 9 in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
The trial, called Outcomes Related to COVID-19 treated with Hydroxychloroquine among Inpatients with symptomatic Disease (ORCHID), began after lab studies and preliminary reports suggested that hydroxychloroquine commonly used to treat malaria and rheumatic conditions like arthritis might have promise in treating SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
The Prevention and Early Treatment of Acute Lung Injury (PETAL) Clinical Trials Network of NHLBI started the trial in April at 34 hospitals across the United States and enrolled 479 of the expected 510 patients. By June, preliminary evidence indicated hydroxychloroquine was unlikely to offer any benefit.
NIH officials said the careful design, implementation, and oversight of the study was key to its results, as well as the recommendation by a data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) to stop the trial early.
Having a rigorously designed clinical trial that captured patient-centered, clinically meaningful outcomes was critical to reaching the unequivocal conclusions about the use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19. ORCHID shows that hydroxychloroquine does not improve clinical outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, said James P. Kiley, Ph.D., director, Division of Lung Diseases at NHLBI. We hope this clear result will help practitioners make informed treatment decisions and researchers continue their efforts pursuing other possible safe and effective treatments for patients suffering with this disease.
The ORCHID trial enrolled participants between April 2 and June 19 who were a median age of 57. They included 290 Hispanic and Black participants and 212 female participants. All participants received clinical care as indicated for their condition. Participants were randomly assigned to a treatment group and received 10 doses of either hydroxychloroquine or a placebo over five days. Researchers then assessed each patients clinical status 14 days after being assigned to a treatment group. They used a seven-category scale ranging from one (death) to seven (discharged from the hospital and able to perform normal activities). Researchers also measured 12 additional outcomes, including death that occurred 28 days after the participants assignment to a treatment group.
At day 14, those who received hydroxychloroquine and those who received a placebo had a similar health status, with most participants in both groups discharged from the hospital and able to perform a range of activities. The number of participants in both treatment groups who died at day 14 was also similar. At day 28, 25 of 241 patients in the hydroxychloroquine group and 25 of 236 patients in the placebo group had died.
The finding that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for the treatment of COVID-19 was consistent across patient subgroups and for all evaluated outcomes, including clinical status, mortality, organ failures, duration of oxygen use, and hospital length of stay, said Wesley Self, M.D., M.P.H., emergency medicine physician at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and PETAL Clinical Trials Network investigator who led the ORCHID trial. He also noted that the finding was consistent with similar trials in the United Kingdom and Brazil.
Our diverse teams of clinicians and research staff worked nimbly, under extremely difficult circumstances to accomplish what NIH and the PETAL Network do best: gold standard studies of important questions for patients suffering from life-threatening conditions, said Samuel M. Brown, M.D., M.S., a critical care physician at Intermountain Healthcare and PETAL Network investigator who helped lead the trial. While we hoped that hydroxychloroquine would help, even this is an important result as we work together to find effective treatments for COVID-19.
As of Nov. 2, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported more than 9.1 million cases of COVID-19 and more than 230,000 deaths in the United States. Many other randomized clinical trials are currently evaluating the effectiveness and safety of other agents versus a placebo in the urgent race for effective therapies to treat COVID-19.
The ORCHID trial was funded by NIH/NHLBI grants 3 U01 HL123009-06S1, U01HL123009, U01HL122998, U01HL123018, U01HL123023, U01HL123008, U01HL123031, U01HL123004, U01HL123027, U01HL123010, U01HL123033, U01HL122989, U01HL123022, and U01HL123020. Additionally, the research was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Awards UL1TR001102 and UL1TR002541.
About the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI):NHLBI is the global leader in conducting and supporting research in heart, lung, and blood diseases and sleep disorders that advances scientific knowledge, improves public health, and saves lives. For more information, visit https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/.
About the National Institutes of Health (NIH):NIH, the nation's medical research agency, includes 27 Institutes and Centers and is a component of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. NIH is the primary federal agency conducting and supporting basic, clinical, and translational medical research, and is investigating the causes, treatments, and cures for both common and rare diseases. For more information about NIH and its programs, visit www.nih.gov.
NIHTurning Discovery Into Health
Effect of Hydroxychloroquine on Clinical Status at 14 Days in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19. DOI:10.1001/jama.2020.22240.
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This week, a 23-year-old man who'd returned from traveling to the US tested positive while he was quarantining. The man, who'd flown back to Vanuatu on November 4, was asymptomatic, Vanuatu's health ministry said Tuesday.
"Physical distancing and personal protection measures were applied and maintained during the flight, throughout the arrival process, during transport to and during registration at the quarantine facility," the ministry said in a news release.
The man will remain in isolation until health clearance is given, the ministry said.
Vanuatu, a country of nearly 300,000, had avoided recording any Covid-19 cases. It likely avoided the virus because of its remote location -- it's over 1,000 miles from Australia, its largest neighbor -- and because it's made up of several smaller, unconnected islands.
The country's next stage, if a cluster of cases are recorded, will include travel restrictions between islands and the use of masks for people with Covid-19 symptoms.
Cleveland Clinic Weston Chief Medical Officer Dr. Fabio Potenti weighs in on the COVID-19 vaccine, arguing its premature for health care professionals to make vaccine recommendations.
Russia's Sputnik V vaccine is 92% effective at protecting people from COVID-19 according to interim trial results, the country's sovereign wealth fund said on Wednesday, as Moscow rushes to keep pace with Western drugmakers in the race for a shot.
The initial results are only the second to be published from a late-stage human trial in the global effort to produce vaccines that could halt a pandemic that has killed more than 1.2 million people and ravaged the world economy.
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Russia registered its COVID-19 vaccine for public use in August, the first country to do so, though the approval came before the start of the large-scale trial in September.
"We are showing, based on the data, that we have a very effective vaccine," said RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev, adding that it was the sort of news that the vaccine's developers would talk about one day with their grandchildren.
The interim results are based on data from the first 16,000 trial participants to receive both shots of the two-dose vaccine, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), which has been backing the vaccine and marketing it globally, said.
The interim analysis was conducted after 20 participants in the trial developed COVID-19 and examined how many had received the vaccine versus a placebo.
That is significantly lower than the 94 infections in the trial of a vaccine being developed by Pfizer Inc and BioNTech. To confirm the efficacy rate, Pfizer said it would continue its trial until there were 164 COVID-19 cases.
PFIZER COVID-19 VACCINES NEXT BIG CHALLENGE: GIVING IT TO ENOUGH PEOPLE
The Russian trial will continue for six more months, RDIF said in a statement, and data from the trial will also be published in a leading international medical journal following a peer review.
SPUTNIK V
The so-called Phase III trial of the shot developed by the Gamaleya Institute is taking place in 29 clinics across Moscow and will involve 40,000 volunteers in total, with a quarter receiving a placebo shot.
The chances of contracting COVID-19 were 92% lower among people vaccinated with Sputnik V than those who received the placebo, the RDIF said.
That's well above the 50% effectiveness threshold for COVID-19 vaccines set by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Russia's announcement follows swiftly on from results posted on Monday by Pfizer and BioNTech
The Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine uses messenger RNA (mRNA) technology and is designed to trigger an immune response without using pathogens, such as actual virus particles.
The Sputnik V vaccine is designed to trigger a response from two shots administered 21 days apart each based on different viral vectors that normally cause the common cold: human adenoviruses Ad5 and Ad26.
The drug is named Sputnik V after the Soviet-era satellite that triggered the space race, a nod to the project's geopolitical importance for Putin.
PFIZER CEO SAYS CORONAVIRUS VACCINE COULD BE DISTRIBUTED TO AMERICANS BEFORE YEAR'S END
Russia is also testing a different vaccine, produced by the Vector Institute in Siberia, and is on the cusp of registering a third, Putin said on Tuesday, adding that all of the country's vaccines were effective.
"Studies have already shown and confirmed that, firstly, these vaccines are safe and have no serious side effects after use, and secondly, they are all effective," the RIA news agency quoted Putin as saying.
RDIF said no serious side effects had been reported during the Sputnik V Phase III trial so far.
MASS VACCINATIONS
Successful vaccines are seen as a crucial to restoring daily life around the world by helping end the health crisis that shuttered businesses and put millions out of work.
Russia registered the vaccine for domestic use in August, prior to the start of the large-scale trial, and has also inoculated 10,000 people considered at high risk of COVID-19 outside of the trial
Putin has said that Russia expects to start mass vaccinations by the end of the year.
"The publication of the interim results of the post-registration clinical trials that convincingly demonstrate Sputnik V vaccines efficacy gives way to mass vaccination in Russia against COVID-19 in the coming weeks," Alexander Gintsburg, director of the Gamaleya Institute, said.
BIDEN CORONAVIRUS ADVISER WARNS US FACING DARKEST DAYS OF ENTIRE PANDEMIC
Moscow is rolling out a large network of vaccination rooms and residents who want the shot may be able to get it as early as next month if large volumes of doses are supplied by then, Deputy Mayor Anastasia Rakova said on Oct. 30.
However, production challenges remain. Earlier estimates that Russia could produce 30 million doses of the vaccine this year have since been scaled down.
Moscow aims to produce 800,000 doses this month, industry minister Denis Manturov has said, followed by 1.5 million in December. But significantly higher volumes of output per month are expected from early 2021.
Manturov cited issues with scaling up production from small to large-volume bioreactors, while Putin last month cited issues with the availability of equipment.
Officials have said that domestic production of the vaccine will be used first to meet Russia's needs.
RDIF, however, has also struck several international supply deals, amounting to 270 million doses in total.
It is expected that these will in large part be produced in other countries and RDIF has previously announced a deal to manufacture 300 million doses in India and an undisclosed amount of doses in Brazil, China and South Korea.
Trials of the vaccine have also begun in Belarus, and are on track to begin soon in the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and India.
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Russia reported 19,851 new coronavirus infections in the past 24 hours and a record high of 432 deaths. At 1,836,960, its overall case tally is the fifth largest in the world, behind the United States, India, Brazil and France.
Authorities, however, have been adamant that severe lockdown restrictions, like those seen in the spring, will not be reintroduced.
(Reporting by Polina Ivanova; Editing by David Clarke)
That means about one tenth of the country's more than 10 million positive tests were reported in the Lone Star state.
If Texas -- home to about 29 million people -- were its own country, it would be ranked among the world's Top 10 countries in terms of total cases, according to Johns Hopkins data.
"It may be as much as 20 per day the next two to three weeks. There might be more and more an incline of deaths," the judge told CNN affiliate KFOX.
The county is among the hardest hit in the country. Hundreds of personnel have been sent by the state to assist local hospitals and an alternate care site at the El Paso convention center is also up and running.
And while officials haven't pinpointed a single cause that led to the surge, the El Paso mayor previously said "37% of our positives were from visiting large big-box stores," while others were from restaurants, travel to Mexico, parties, gyms and a small percentage were due to large gatherings.
Inside Texas jails and prisons, another crisis
The report, from the University of Texas at Austin, found that more people in Texas prisons have contracted the virus than in any other prison system in the country.
There have been at least 231 deaths from Covid-19 in Texas correctional facilities -- and that includes both staff and incarcerated people, the report said.
"The data in this report fills a significant gap in our knowledge base, and shows the urgency of taking steps to reduce the risks of additional COVID deaths in Texas prisons and jails."
Among some of the most staggering findings -- 80% of people who died in jail from the virus were not convicted of a crime. And about 58% of people who died in prison from Covid-19 were eligible for parole.
The number of deaths reported is likely an undercount, the researchers said.
"Because of high levels of 'churn' in the jail population, it is possible that individuals contracted the virus in jail, were released, and then died on the outside," the report noted. "Also, some jails may have intentionally released people at risk of dying so that the death would not be recorded as a jail death," they added.
"Moreover, in both prisons and jails, some people died without ever having been tested for COVID, and some died from a pre-existing medical condition worsened by COVID. Those deaths are not counted as COVID deaths."
CNN's Joe Sutton and Maggie Fox contributed to this report.
Here is my working definition of a public health expert: someone who is constantly frustrated that people will not act on clear health advice in the interests of their own health.
From smoking to diabetes, from eating responsibly and exercising to practicing safe sex, from getting an annual flu shot to wearing face coverings in the time of coronavirus, the literature on public health is awash with tricks, nudges, and sometimes outright bribes to try and get people to take care of themselves. Some progress has been made, but the feeling is often one of disappointment that so many people arent following the advice.
Paradoxically, Covid-19 the biggest public health and economic calamity in several generations is showing that people can and will listen and act. We, the people, have done remarkably well around the world when it comes to following public health advice. This is in spite of the fact that several governments, including those of the U.S. and many states, have not supported the clear public health message that people need to make enormous changes to their behaviors to protect themselves and others.
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The evidence on this is actually very clear. While the pandemic has its ebbs and flows, a month or so after the first significant outbreak in a region (say, a city like New York or a state like Illinois) things stabilize. The virus doesnt go away. Instead, the number of new infections is about the same from day to day. Epidemiologists refer to this situation as the reproduction rate of the virus going to 1, with every person who is infected spreading it to just one other person on average. (Getting the reproduction rate under 1 is the beginning of the road to stopping the pandemic.)
This stands in contrast to earlier predictions of a large outbreak as the virus spread quickly at much higher reproduction rates based on how easily the virus could jump from person to person. In the absence of behavioral change, an international team of researchers predicted that an infected person would infect two to three other people. That happened right at the beginning of the pandemic, but then it changed. Part of this was due to governments instituting lockdowns but, somewhat amazingly, people locked themselves down faster than governments acted.
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Perhaps the clearest study of this comes from University of Chicago economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson. Using cellphone data to track visits to 2.5 million businesses in the U.S. between March 2020 and May 2020, they examined counties in lockdown states that were next to counties in non-lockdown states. Although government lockdowns did reduce visits to businesses, 60% of the reduction would have happened even without them. In other words, people were acting. The converse happened as governments allowed reopening: People did not follow.
This pattern arose around the world. Very few people saw others falling sick or collapsing in the street, as happened during the 1918 flu pandemic. In fact, we saw nothing. Nothing but the news and information from experts. And that information spread quickly. Within a week or so, people knew what was happening even if they couldnt see it happening. And they knew what the recommendations were even though officials were still not entirely certain about how Covid-19 was spreading.
It is tempting to think of the lockdown protests and mask boycotts and conclude that solid public health messages werent getting through. But the data show that those were the exceptions rather than the truth. Moreover, this information penetrated the far reaches of the planet. Even in places like Sweden and Brazil, which were perceived as not having strong government interventions against Covid-19, people found out about the risks quickly and acted to protect themselves.
Think, for example, of the mask misstep. Because public health officials were initially concerned about mask hoarding, they downplayed the need for masks. That was a mistake because mask use likely was the most effective tool in combating the spread of the novel coronavirus. Even so, more and more people began procuring masks or fashioning them themselves. And they wore them which, as these things go, was a huge behavioral change. They did to protect themselves but also to protect others. The information flowed. Only later did the official advice change and Americans were called upon to wear masks when in public.
The speed and reach of these personal changes in behavior strongly suggest the influence of one thing that we have today that wasnt around in 1918 or even in the 1980s as HIV/AIDS began to spread: the internet. While there are genuine concerns about the internet as a conduit for misinformation, when it comes to public health messaging regarding the coronavirus pandemic, we owe it our gratitude. Covid-19 may go down in history as the internets first truly great informational triumph.
I realize this may be a controversial view. But there was no Walter Cronkite we all watched and trusted for our news. There were no public addresses from the president. There was just the decentralized mess and flow of information from the internet to our devices. When we look at 2020, it is reasonable to say that part of the system finally worked. When we look beyond 2020, we should ask what more it can do.
Joshua Gans is a professor of strategic management at the University of Torontos Rotman School of Management and author of The Pandemic Information Gap: The Brutal Economics of Covid-19 (MIT Press, November 2020).
That is the main finding of a joint report published on Tuesday by the UNs Economic Commission for the region, ECLAC, and the International Labour Organization (ILO).
It was presented simultaneously in the capitals of Santiago, Chile, and Lima, Peru, via a joint virtual press conference led by Alicia Brcena. the ECLAC Executive Secretary, and Vincius Pinheiro, ILOs Regional Director.
In terms of employment, the health crisis affected vulnerable groups above all, deepening inequality in the labor market. Women have been most affected by job losses and the decline in labor market participation. A strategic view must link sustainable development with job creation, they said.
COVID-19 has dealt an unprecedented blow to economies and labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean, leading to the biggest contraction in the region in the last 100 years.
The greatest effects were felt in the second quarter of this year, when an estimated 47 million jobs were lost, compared with 2019.
Many people who found themselves without a job were unable to swiftly re-enter the workforce, or withdrew entirely, impeded by mobility restrictions which prevented them from seeking employment.
Women, young people and migrants are among those who have been heavily impacted, and the report also looks at how the crisis has affected employment for people 15 to 24 years old.
The pandemic has had a greater impact on youth, partly because there are fewer entry-level vacancies around, fewer temporary contract renewals and fewer hires following probationary periods, the report reveals.
Furthermore, the lower likelihood of finding a job has discouraged young people from seeking employment, leading to a rising number who are neither looking for work nor studying.
These long periods of inactivity have lasting effects on their career path: more informality and greater labor market exclusion in the future, the report cautions.
The two UN organizations have called for promoting young peoples integration into the labour market by combining classroom training followed by internships.
Monetary subsidies would ensure attendance and participation, and employment services would support their re-entry into the workforce.
Young people who have been made jobless could also benefit from vocational training, which would facilitate re-skilling or re-training. Meanwhile, digital technologies must be harnessed to enhance learning capacity and thereby close the digital gaps between them.
The report warns that based on the average economic growth rate over the past decade, returning to pre-crisis economic activity levels will take several years, which will translate into a protracted jobs recovery.
Any return would require furthering environmental policies that stimulate job growth, the authors said, bolstered by active fiscal policies that foster employment, with labor-intensive investment projects focused on sustainability.
These in turn must be accompanied by industrial and technological policies, they added, geared at building production capacity and increasing competitiveness, along with financing for small business and medium-sized enterprises.
Posted: Nov 11, 2020 / 11:15 AM EST / Updated: Nov 11, 2020 / 11:15 AM EST
(WSYR-TV) Pfizers worldwide trial is giving us some hope and possibly the best weapon in the COVID-19 pandemic, and some of the pivotal players are here in Central New York.
SUNY Upstate Hospitals Chief of Infectious Diseases is leading the charge. NewsChannel 9 spoke with one of the first people anywhere to get the vaccine as part of Upstates vaccine trial program.
Annie Tuttle and her wife Melissa got their first COVID-19 vaccine in August with the second coming 21 days later. Of course, being that its a trial, they dont know if they received the placebo, but they have some ideas.
Were pretty sure that she had the vaccine, said Annie.
Melissa had a days worth of mild symptoms after the second round.
Mild fever, mild fatigue, but after that she was fine, said Annie. Annie only had a little fatigue, which is not enough to check any boxes in their weekly COVID-19 diary.
When asked about why they participated in the trial, Annie said this:
Well, we believe in science and we knew that because of this unprecedented time this would call for an unprecedented vaccine process. So we felt that this wasthe right thing to do. If there was a chance we could help save lives or get our lives back to normal quicker, both of our families live out of state so we havent been able to see them for over a year, we wanted to do our part and help that process along.
This process involves check-ups, blood work, and a bit of unknown for the next two years. But, with doctors they trust, they say its worth it.
They are hoping to be part of the pandemics solution.
