WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump will try to put his bout with COVID-19 behind him when he returns to the campaign trail on Monday, beginning a three-week sprint to the Nov. 3 election with a rally in the vital battleground state of Florida.
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump, with bandages seen on his hand, takes off his face mask as he comes out on a White House balcony to speak to supporters gathered on the South Lawn for a campaign rally that the White House is calling a "peaceful protest" in Washington, U.S., October 10, 2020. REUTERS/Tom Brenner
The event at an airport in Sanford, Florida, will be Trumps first campaign rally since he disclosed on Oct. 2 that he tested positive for COVID-19. Trump, who spent three days in the hospital for treatment, said on Sunday he was fully recovered and no longer infectious, but did not say directly whether he had tested negative for the virus.
The Republican president is seeking to change the dynamics of a race that opinion polls show he is losing to Democratic rival Joe Biden just 21 days before Election Day.
For months, Trump had worked furiously to shift public attention away from the virus and his handling of the pandemic, which has infected nearly 7.7 million people in the United States, killed more than 214,000 and put millions out of work.
But his own illness has put the spotlight squarely on his coronavirus response during the closing stretch of the race.
Biden, in a sign of fresh optimism as he leads Trump in national and many key state polls, heads on Monday to Ohio, a state Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2016. It is Bidens second campaign trip in as many weeks to Ohio, which was once thought out of reach but where polls now show a tight race.
Trumps rally in Florida, and planned rallies in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Iowa on Wednesday and North Carolina on Thursday, will be watched closely to see whether the president has changed his approach to campaigning since contracting the virus.
He has been criticized for failing to encourage supporters at campaign events, and even White House staff, to wear protective masks and abide by social-distancing guidelines. At least 11 close Trump aides have tested positive for the coronavirus.
Trump, speaking from a White House balcony on Saturday, urged hundreds of largely Black and Latino supporters to help get out the vote. Standing alone, Trump was not wearing a mask as he spoke. Most in the crowd were wearing masks but not following social-distancing guidelines.
Asked on Saturday if Trump should be resuming rallies, Biden said it was important that he makes it clear to all those in attendance the importance of staying socially distanced and wearing masks.
Thats the only responsible thing to do, Biden told reporters.
Trump told Fox News in an interview on Sunday that he felt good and pointed to his physicians memo from Saturday saying he had taken a test showing he was no longer infectious.
I passed the highest test, the highest standards, and Im in great shape, Trump told Sunday Morning Futures.
Trump also said, without producing evidence, that he was now immune, an assertion that drew a flag from Twitter for violating the social media platforms rules about misleading information related to COVID-19.
The scientific research has been inconclusive on how long people who have recovered from COVID-19 have antibodies and are protected from a second infection.
Most recent polls in Florida, where a Trump loss would dramatically narrow his path to re-election, show Biden with a small lead. Trump won Florida over Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by just 1.2 percentage points, which helped propel him to the White House.
On his visit to Ohio, Biden will deliver a speech in Toledo meant to undermine what polls show is Trumps last greatest strength, the view among some voters that the former real estate entrepreneur is better on handling the economy.
Biden also will attend a get-out-the-vote event in Cincinnati, his campaign said.
Trump has pulled back his advertising in Ohio in recent days, while Biden has increased his, another sign of the opportunity the former vice president and his fellow Democrats see to make more states competitive than they initially imagined.
Reporting by John Whitesides; Additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Soyoung Kim and Peter Cooney
The Bioshield Act, along with the laws that later modified it, was not intended as a carte blanche. For instance, an E.U.A. can only be granted during a declared public health or national security emergency, and is supposed to be used only for products that have no adequate, approved or available alternatives. But the F.D.A. was granted wide discretion to decide whether a product ought to be made available to the public. By law, the agency can grant E.U.A.s to products that may be effective, whose known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks. It is up to the agency, however, to determine what those criteria mean.
It was deliberately a quite flexible kind of standard, said Dr. Jesse Goodman, the director of the Center on Medical Product Access, Safety and Stewardship at Georgetown, and the F.D.A.s chief scientist from 2009 to 2014. E.U.A.s are intended to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis; the F.D.A. might tolerate more risk for a drug designed to treat a disease with a high mortality rate, such as Ebola, than for a vaccine that would be given to healthy people to stop a disease like Covid-19, Mr. Goodman said.
But, he added, E.U.A.s were not meant as a substitute for traditional approvals: The intent originally was that ultimately you should be collecting data and moving these products toward approval, even after the emergency authorization was granted.
However, it can be difficult to fully enroll a product in clinical trials after it has received an E.U.A., Dr. Goodman said, because clinical trials typically impose more stringent requirements on patients than an E.U.A. would. Now we have tens of thousands of people getting convalescent plasma a Covid-19 treatment that was granted an E.U.A. in August and we still dont know whether it works, he said.
Another potential hazard of emergency authorization became apparent not long after the Bioshield Act was signed into law, when the F.D.A. granted its first E.U.A., at the request of the Defense Department, for the use of an anthrax vaccine, in 2005. That authorization suggested to some people, including Chris Shays, then a Republican congressman from Connecticut, that the E.U.A. process provided an avenue for political interference. The apparent urgency appears to be the product of preventable legal and regulatory failures, Mr. Shays wrote in a letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, rather than any validated external threat.
The actions of the Trump administration during the Covid pandemic have renewed these concerns. In May, Rick Bright, the former head of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, alleged in a whistle-blower complaint that he had arranged an E.U.A. request for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine as a compromise position to head off pressure by administration officials to make the drugs available under a less-restrictive protocol known as expanded access.
In late September, Mr. Trump said that he was considering blocking the F.D.A.s vaccine E.U.A. guidelines, which made it unlikely that a vaccine would be authorized before the presidential election, because he saw them as a political move more than anything else. And Mr. Trumps insistence, in the video he posted on Wednesday, that weve got to get an E.U.A. for the Regeneron antibodies signed now was an extraordinary intervention into a process that is usually left to career scientists at the F.D.A. (A few hours after Mr. Trump tweeted the video, Regeneron announced that it had officially applied for an E.U.A., although the company had previously suggested its intention to seek one.)
As COVID-19 spread this spring, speeding tickets dropped in Champaign-Urbana and across the state.
According to data requested by The News-Gazette, the Champaign, Urbana and University of Illinois police departments issued 161 speeding tickets in February. Two months later, they handed out just two.
Similar drops were seen by Rantoul and Illinois State Police and it wasnt because drivers suddenly stopped speeding altogether.
Instead, police officials attributed the downward trend to fewer vehicles being on the road, particularly during the statewide stay-at-home order and on campus when students left.
Another factor: temporary policies to reduce the spread of COVID- 19 by stopping fewer people for minor infractions. Thats what happened with Champaign polices Strategic Traffic Enforcement Program, department spokesman Tom Yelich acknowledged.
While we were in the early stages of understanding COVID-19 and its impact, we did reduce enforcement for minor traffic violations in the interest of public health and for the well-being of our own officers while proper protocol adjustments were being made in response to the pandemic, he said.
Minor traffic accidents also werent investigated unless there was an injury or a tow truck was needed, he said.
Urbana police Chief Bryant Seraphin also attributed the decline in speeding tickets to the pandemic.
In March, we really restricted traffic stops, he said. Any way to minimize the amount of contact we were having with citizens and we made a variety of other changes, as well, whether its taking reports over the phone or referring people to the website for some low-level issues.
In Rantoul, 188 speeding tickets were issued from March 1 to Oct. 1. Thats down from 293 during the same period last year, Chief Tony Brown said.
Initially, we had really asked the officers to look at limiting exposure and contact with people, and that included traffic stops, Brown said.
He said speeding tickets are not a significant part of Rantouls budget.
At the UI, police spokesman Pat Wade said there werent any policy changes responsible for the reduction in speeding tickets, but they still decreased once students left town.
UI police typically hand out about 20 speeding tickets a month. Their early pandemic totals: nine in March, one in April, two in May, four in June, 14 in July and five in August.
With students and staff going remote, we were basically in summer mode, as far as the campus population, beginning in March, Wade said. Even now, were not fully back to the traffic we would normally see.
Officers are still out there doing the same traffic enforcement, but there just are not as many cars on the road speeding. Not on campus, anyway.
Illinois State Police saw a similar drop in tickets, both in local District 10 and statewide.
From March 16 to May 6 last year, 13,885 speeding tickets were issued across the state, 451 of them in District 10. During the same period this year, 1,396 were issued statewide, including 60 in District 10.
During the governors shelter-in-place order, there are far fewer cars on the road, Trooper Mindy Carroll said in May. When there is less traffic, there may be a temptation to exceed the posted speed limit. The Illinois State Police is asking the motoring public to fight this temptation. Slow down and pay attention to the road so first responders do not have to respond to a traffic crash or stop you for speeding.
Lest anyone be tempted to drive fast, police say theyre no longer limiting enforcement of speeding.
From March 16 to Oct. 8, state police issued 2,218 tickets in District 10, just two fewer than a year ago.
As weve learned about the virus and have officers with masks, we have started to re-initiate some of these efforts, Seraphin said. He said the city regularly gets complaints about speeding, so we started pushing out some of our selective traffic control.
Source: Champaign Police Department, Urbana Police Department, University of Illinois Police Department
TORONTO -- A new study looking at how long the novel coronavirus can survive on surfaces found that it can remain infectious on some surfaces -- including bank notes -- for at least 28 days, provided the temperature is right.
Published this week in the Virology Journal, the new paper describes how researchers tested the virus on several surfaces, including cotton and bank notes, at numerous temperatures in order to measure the lifespan of the virus under these different circumstances.
They found that the virus dies significantly faster on surfaces in hotter temperatures, and can survive on several non-porous surfaces for up to four weeks -- much longer than previous studies have indicated.
Overwhelmingly, evidence has shown that the primary way COVID-19 is spread is through droplets and through sharing air with others, but that hasnt stopped the fear of surface transmission. Hand washing is still one of the most important prevention methods that health officials tout.
Previous studies have looked at how long SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, remains infectious on different surfaces, with some studies finding it to be a matter of hours, and others saying it could be days.
In this study, the surfaces researchers tested the virus on included Australian bank notes -- which, like Canadian bank notes, are polymer -- paper bank notes, glass, vinyl, stainless steel and cotton.
Researchers noted that they wanted to include money because it is an object that travels frequently between different people. Stainless steel, vinyl and glass are materials found in most public spaces, and cotton is often found in clothing and bedding.
When a virus gets onto a surface, it is often through a sneeze or through droplets expelled from the mouth. Researchers diluted SARS-CoV-2 in a defined organic matrix [] designed to mimic the composition of body secretions before placing it onto the materials to measure the longevity.
They noted in the paper that the concentration of the virus in each sample was high, it still represents a plausible amount of virus that may be deposited on a surface.
Samples of each material with the virus on it were placed into a humidified climate chamber so a set humidity of 50 per cent relative humidity could be maintained while the samples were tested at different temperatures and timeframes.
Samples were tested at 20, 30 and 40 degrees Celsius, and were inspected 1 hour, 3 days, 7 days, 14 days, 21 days and 28 days after the virus had first been introduced to the material.
Researchers found that at 20 degrees Celsius, the virus could survive for at least 28 days on every material except for cotton, the most porous of the materials tested.
SARS-CoV-2 couldnt be detected on cotton after 14 days had passed.
The majority of virus reduction on cotton occurred very soon after application of virus, suggesting an immediate absorption effect, the report said.
Does this mean every bank note in our wallets could infect us? According to Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, we shouldnt jump straight to alarm.
What we're seeing empirically, clinically, with contact tracing, is that COVID is not spreading heavily through touch, he said.
It is possible to contract the virus through surfaces, he said, but its not happening very often.
He said that earlier in the pandemic, when we had a looser understanding of the virus, there was a bigger fear of things like groceries or the mail in terms of surface transmission. But at this point, we have a greater understanding of how COVID-19 predominantly spreads.
It's shared airspace, Furness said. It's droplet and aerosols and shared air with poor ventilation and prolonged contact. That's how you get sick. That's the thing to be scared of, which is why I've been very, very worried about indoor dining. And it's not because you might touch contaminated cutlery. It's because you're in this room with a lot of other people and not wearing a mask and sharing air.
This study carried out its experiments at a lab at the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, with the samples in complete darkness to negate any effects of UV light just one way that the conditions of the experiments differed from real life.
[This study] tells you what can happen under laboratory conditions, Furness said.
A bank note in your pocket or your wallet is rubbing up against other things, he explained, not sitting undisturbed to measure the longevity of a virus. If surfaces are exposed to sunlight as well, that can aid with a faster decay of any virus on the surface.
These studies are the first step, he said, and then researchers need to test in the real world. What is the real significance of this?
And those numbers are usually quite different.
The raw numbers of the study also dont paint the full picture. Although the virus was still detectable on most surfaces at the 28 day mark, it reduced in concentration much faster than that.
Viruses aren't alive, Furness said. They can't regenerate, they can't metabolize or protect themselves as soon as they leave your body. As soon as you exhale some virus, the virus starts to die.
The half-life of the virus (the time it takes for it to reduce by 50 per cent) on a paper bank note at 20 degrees Celsius was 2.74 days, showing the viral load decreases in concentration far faster than the 28 days would suggest. After 9.13 days, 90 per cent of the virus was gone.
On cotton, at 20 degrees Celsius, the half-life was 1.68 days, and it took 5.57 days for a 90 per cent reduction in the virus.
Five to nine days is still a long time for a virus to remain infectious on a surface, although its still unknown at what point the viral load would be too small to actually make a person ill.
Researchers said in the paper that the extended half-life in this study compared to others could be down to the controlled conditions that they created for the experiment.
While this study does not mean we should panic about surface transmission, which remains one of the rarer ways to transmit the virus, it does provide insight into how temperature interacts with the virus survivability.
Researchers did not measure any of the virus samples at less than 20 degrees Celsius, but they observed how much the rate of virus decline sped up when the temperature increased from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius. Extrapolating backwards from that, they posit that if the temperature dropped significantly from 20 degrees Celsius, the lifespan of the virus on various surfaces could increase.
This data could therefore provide a reasonable explanation for the outbreaks of COVID-19 surrounding meat processing and cold storage facilities, they theorize.
Furness said the temperature is a huge factor when it comes to a virus survivability.
In the winter, in freezing temperatures, COVID will last [longer] on surfaces, he said.
So if you're going to a playground in the winter, it can be quite worrisome. I wonder whether we're going to see that COVID does spread more by touch in the winter. I can't say that it does, but it's entirely possible that it will.
He said the concept of temperature is something that hasnt been emphasized enough as Canada begins to tackle its second wave.
It's not just the numbers are going up, he said. Numbers are going up, while temperatures are going down.
The best thing to do?
We should continue to wash our hands and be vigilant, Furness said. In fact, during COVID, I would say the best outcome of washing your hands is actually so you dont get any other colds that would make you afraid that maybe you have COVID.
There were 44,614 new cases of COVID-19 identified in the United States on Sunday, according to a real-time count kept by Johns Hopkins University.
The latest daily tally is down by more than 10,000 from the previous day and falls well under the countrys record set on July 16, when there were 77,255 new cases in a 24-hour-reporting period.
An additional 400 coronavirus-related fatalities were also recorded Sunday, down from a peak of 2,666 new fatalities reported on April 17.
A banner offering free COVID-19 testing is seen at a testing station at Black Lives Matter Plaza near the White House in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 9, 2020.
A total of 7,762,809 people in the United States have been diagnosed with COVID-19 since the pandemic began, and at least 214,771 of them have died, according to Johns Hopkins. The cases include people from all 50 U.S. states, Washington, D.C. and other U.S. territories as well as repatriated citizens.
By May 20, all U.S. states had begun lifting stay-at-home orders and other restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus. The day-to-day increase in the country's cases then hovered around 20,000 for a couple of weeks before shooting back up and crossing 70,000 for the first time in mid-July. The daily tally of new cases has gradually come down since then but has started to climb again in recent weeks.
Week-over-week comparisons show the number of new cases reported across the nation continues to go up, as does the usage of intensive care units, but the number of new deaths are down, according to an internal memo from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that was obtained by ABC News last week.
Another 31 coronavirus cases have been reported in Maine, health officials said Sunday.
Sundays report brings the total number of coronavirus cases in Maine to 5,723. Of those, 5,128 have been confirmed positive, while 595 were classified as probable cases, according to the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The agency revised Saturdays cumulative total to 5,692, down from 5,696, meaning there was an increase of 31 over the previous days report, state data show. As the Maine CDC continues to investigate previously reported cases, some are determined to have not been the coronavirus, or coronavirus cases not involving Mainers. Those are removed from the states cumulative total.
New cases were reported in Cumberland (3), Androscoggin (8), York (6), Franklin (2), Oxford (1), Sagadahoc (7), Penobscot (1) and Somerset (4) counties, state data show.
The seven-day average for new coronavirus cases is 34.3, up from 33.4 a week ago and up from 22.6 a month ago.
No new deaths were reported Sunday, leaving the statewide death toll at 143. Nearly all deaths have been in Mainers over age 60.
So far, 463 Mainers have been hospitalized at some point with COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Information about those currently hospitalized wasnt immediately available.
Meanwhile, nine more people have recovered from the coronavirus, bringing total recoveries to 4,970. That means there are 610 active confirmed and probable cases in the state, which is up from 602 on Saturday.
A majority of the cases 3,318 have been in Mainers under age 50, while more cases have been reported in women than men, according to the Maine CDC.
As of Friday, there had been 493,158 negative test results out of 501,020 overall. About 1.5 percent of all tests have come back positive, the most recently available Maine CDC data show.
The coronavirus has hit hardest in Cumberland County, where 2,386 cases have been reported and where the bulk of virus deaths 70 have been concentrated. It is one of four counties the others are Androscoggin, Penobscot and York, with 807, 269 and 1,275 cases, respectively where community transmission has been confirmed, according to the Maine CDC.
There are two criteria for establishing community transmission: at least 10 confirmed cases and that at least 25 percent of those are not connected to either known cases or travel. That second condition has not yet been satisfied in other counties.
Other cases have been reported in Aroostook (52), Franklin (69), Hancock (55), Kennebec (258), Knox (51), Lincoln (50), Oxford (155), Piscataquis (10), Sagadahoc (72), Somerset (112), Waldo (79) and Washington (20) counties. Information about the location of three other cases was not available on Sunday morning.
As of Sunday morning, the coronavirus had sickened 7,719,600 people in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as caused 214,379 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.
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If youre waiting for the COVID-19 pandemic to subside across the state of Utah, last week was a reminder that its unlikely to happen any time soon.
The Department of Health on Sunday reported 1,200 new cases and seven new deaths statewide. For the seven-day period beginning Oct. 5 and ending Sunday, Utah reported 8,226 cases and 40 deaths. Those figures over that seven-day period account for 9.6% of all cases in Utah and 7.7% of all deaths since the pandemic began in March.
Sundays seven new deaths include:
A Cache County man, age 65 to 84, who lived in a long-term care facility.
A Salt Lake County man, age 65 to 84, who was hospitalized at the time of death.
A Tooele County man, age 65 to 84, who was hospitalized at the time of death.
A Davis County man, older than 85, who lived in a long-term care facility.
A Salt Lake County man, age 65 to 84, who was hospitalized at the time of death.
A Washington County man, age 45 to 64, who was hospitalized at the time of death.
A Salt Lake County man, age 65 to 84, who was hospitalized at the time of death.
Positive COVID-19 cases continue to spike. Six of the past seven days have seen 1,007 or more positive cases, including Thursdays single-day state record of 1,501. Things didnt slow down as the weekend hit, with 1,343 on Friday and 1,354 on Saturday before Sundays 1,200.
The total number of positive cases since the pandemic began eclipsed 85,000 on Sunday. The total now sits at 85,844 as the state is on pace to hit 100,000 total cases well ahead of Halloween.
Furthermore, according to COVID Act Now, Utahs 13.9% positive percentage ranks among the 10 worst when compared to the rest of the 50 states. For what its worth, neighboring Idaho (22.3%), Wyoming (15.5%) and Nevada (14.9%) all have worse positive-percentages currently.
As with positive cases, statewide hospitalizations remain high. Friday marked a single-day high of 243 current hospitalizations. That dropped to 231 on Saturday but shot back up on Sunday as the Department of Health reported 254 current hospitalizations. There have been 4,306 total hospitalizations since the pandemic began.
The state reported Sunday an increase of 5,677 people tested, bringing the statewide total to 918,571. Sundays total was down from Saturdays single-day record of 11,846.
Like the Covid-19 virus itself, the idea of herd immunity has surged back into public life having been suppressed for months. It was initially touted as a way to hold back the pandemic by allowing sufficient numbers of infections to occur and so reduce numbers of non-immune potential hosts for the virus. The disease would then stop spreading, it was argued.
The notion quickly fell out of favour when researchers highlighted the high death toll that would have to occur in the UK before herd immunity was achieved. Nevertheless, the idea has now bubbled back and is again making headlines.
According to signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration which was published last week, it is now time to remove lockdown restrictions for most of society and to allow the population to get on with their lives while still protecting the vulnerable and old. Herd immunity would build up and soon the scourge of Covid-19 would disappear.
It is an enticing argument. But is herd immunity really a panacea whose time has come? Can it lift the curse of Covid from the world? Many UK scientists counsel caution.
As they point out, only 8% or so of the British population has been infected with the Covid-19 virus. To get to herd immunity we would need that to reach around 70%, said Sir Robert Lechler, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences. Not only are we a huge way off this but we now know that immunity to Covid-19 decreases over time, and that people can be re-infected with the virus.
For this reason, scientists argue that it is very unlikely that herd immunity could be sustained without a vaccine or regular reinfection. More to the point, if attempts were made to achieve herd immunity by lifting lockdown restrictions, there would be a vast increase in excess deaths, mainly among the old and the vulnerable. NHS services would be overwhelmed while high numbers of long Covid cases would have long-term consequences even for those who suffer only mild initial symptoms.
Scientists also point to the example of Manaus in Brazil. The city suffered a devastating wave of Covid-19 cases that killed more than 3,000 people earlier this year. Then virus levels subsided and claims were made that the city had achieved herd immunity. However, cases have now started to surge again in Manaus, suggesting the city failed to achieve herd immunity despite its high death toll.
In fact, the concept of herd immunity is simply not palatable, added Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health, Southampton University. He describes the Great Barrington Declaration as little more than an online petition and points to groups of experts from Independent Sage to the Academy of Medical Sciences who have spoken out against the idea.
In the UK, there was a complete national lockdown for around three months, he added. During this time, despite very little UK life running as normal, thousands of vulnerable people who overall make up one in four of the population died of the pandemic coronavirus and yet we still only have 8% of the population with some level of immunity.
To raise that level to 60 to 70% in a bid to achieve herd immunity would therefore have devastating consequences, Head concluded.
The news of President Donald Trump's positive coronavirus test, and his subsequent hospitalisation, has reminded the country that no-one is protected from this virus.
So where is the US right now in dealing with the pandemic?
With about 7.5 million coronavirus cases, the US has the highest number of confirmed infections in the world - about one fifth of the global total despite having only 4% of the population.
After the initial spike in late March, social distancing restrictions gradually brought infections to heel. By May, case numbers had stabilised. But as states peeled back lockdown measures, cases began to rise, reaching a countrywide high in July.
But as summer hotspots - like Arizona, Florida and California - brought their outbreaks under control, surges have developed elsewhere, with fast-moving outbreaks in North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
In recent weeks, infections have risen steadily, with national cases increasing for three weeks in a row. Though numbers have so far not reached the record-breaking levels of July and August, the country is reporting more than 40,000 new cases each day.
Hospitalisations, too, are on the rise. According to data compiled by the Covid Tracking Project, the average number of people hospitalised for coronavirus in a week rose recently for the first time since July.
It's difficult to explain precisely why.
One contributing factor has been the return to school for US students.
A recent study from the US Centers for Disease Control on the almost 100,000 coronavirus cases reported between 2 August and 5 September - around when college students began their return to school - found that weekly cases among those aged 18-22 increased by 55% nationally.
The greatest increases came from the Northeast (which includes New York, Connecticut and New Jersey) and the Midwest, which is a region located west of the Northeast, including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin.
There have now been more than 130,000 cases identified at more than 1,300 American colleges, according to reporting from the New York Times.
Another compounding factor is the change in seasons. Top US virus expert Dr Anthony Fauci said last month that we should plan to "hunker down" through the autumn and winter. "It's not going to be easy," he said.
Why? A key piece of coronavirus health advice has been to do things outside. This gets more difficult as temperatures slip. Instead, cold weather will drive people indoors to closer quarters with potentially poor ventilation, where the risk of spread is heightened.
What's more, viruses tend to survive more easily in cold conditions.
There are now additional fears that the virus will collide with the US influenza season - which typically begins in October - threatening to overwhelm the health system.
Here's some good news - virus deaths in the US are continuing to fall, albeit gradually.
As of early October, the daily average had reached around 720, a marked drop from the staggering 1,000-plus daily fatalities recorded this summer.
But the bad news? This decline appears to have slowed in recent weeks. And recent daily tallies suggest some ground has been lost since the record lows of early July.
In total, over 210,000 people have died of Covid-19 across the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Case numbers remain high throughout much of the country, with concentrations in the Upper Midwest (that includes Wisconsin and Minnesota) and parts of the West.
Wisconsin is one of the hardest-hit states. Case numbers there have quadrupled in the past month, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Hospitalisations more than doubled throughout the month of September, and the test positivity rate is now at a weekly average of 19.6%,
To put this figure into perspective: the World Health Organization (WHO) in May suggested a positive case rate at or below 5%, for two weeks, before reopening measures were implemented.
North Dakota is also in the throes of a major outbreak. For the fourth week in a row, it led the US in most cases per capita - at 548 cases per one million residents. Neighbouring South Dakota, as well as Montana, Utah and Idaho are also recording severe upticks in new infections.
Sunbelt states Arizona, Florida and California - pummelled by the virus this summer - are now getting some relief, with steep declines.
New York City, once the epicentre of the US outbreak, is once again facing climbing case numbers. In late September, as many public schools began their reopening, Mayor Bill de Blasio reported a daily positive test rate of 3.25% - the highest daily rate since June.
Amid mounting fears of a second wave, Mr de Blasio announced plans to close nonessential businesses in nine hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens - a plan quickly refused by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, a fellow Democrat and political rival.
Mr Cuomo said there "could be" a future rollback of indoor and outdoor dining in hotspot areas, but described the closure of nonessential businesses in certain postal codes as "arbitrary and capricious".
But despite the political tug-of-war, the city will go ahead with plans to shutter public and private school in those nine areas, home to about 500,000 New Yorkers, including large communities of Orthodox Jews, among whom the virus has been spreading rapidly.
"I'm not going to recommend or allow any New York City family to send their child to a school that I wouldn't send my child," Mr Cuomo said of the closures.
It's interesting that these considerations are playing out in New York City even though it still has a lower positivity rate than many other parts of the country.
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EXCLUSIVE: As dawn breaks on October 12, TV executives from around the world should be rising to the lapping shore of the French Riviera. Instead, for most, they will be greeted by the four walls of their bedrooms. This is the reality of 2020, a year in which coronavirus has robbed an intensely sociable industry of its ability to come together.
Mipcom is among the grandest of these calendar fixtures. A truly global gathering, Cannes is the setting for a jamboree of TV trading, a place where people converge to inject some heat into the market. But this year, the heat will be the glow of our collective computer screens, as Mipcom goes online for the first time ever.
Deadline has spoken to 10 distribution chiefs in Europe and America for their view on virtual Mipcom, as well as their reflections on how Covid-19 has reshaped television sales. The conclusions are clear: the pandemic has accelerated change on an unprecedented scale.
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Video call technology has collapsed geographies and granted greater access to buyers. Meetings are being done over weeks, not the four-day Mipcom window. Sales executives are seeing their clients more, not less. Conversations have become more focused but also more personal, as stories are exchanged about the pandemic. Savings are being made on travel and entertaining.
Distributors have invested in technology to spotlight their shows. Sales materials have become increasingly sophisticated in the absence of in-person pitching. Companies like ITV Studios and Sony are going it alone with their own buyer showcases, while wringing value from catalog shows has never been more important as shoots ground to a halt across the world.
The cumulative effect of all this is that the sales chiefs were largely upbeat about their performance in 2020. As Covid-19 has ravaged economies, crippled production, and lit a stick of dynamite under the advertising market, there has still been a huge demand for television. In bald revenue terms, Mipcom is not going to be missed. I think were going to do just fine, is how Jim Packer, Lionsgates president of worldwide TV and digital distribution, breezily puts it.
For many we spoke to, however, its the intangible side of Cannes that will be missed the most. The stuff that greases the wheels of business, but does not immediately translate into revenue. Nearly all mentioned clinking glasses of ros with friends and colleagues. Mipcom is, for many, as much an exercise in team-building and internal strategizing as it is one of hardcore deal-making. Gone too is the serendipity of bumping into clients or old acquaintances and sharing gossip and market intelligence.
All3Media International CEO Louise Pedersen is ruing not being able to create organic buzz around new titles, while Katie Benbow, BBC Studios director of sales planning, virtual Mipcom wont be able to replace the opportunity to peek over each others fences.
All the executives interviewed hope to be able to return to physical markets next year, albeit with the assistance of a vaccine, or at the very least, highly sophisticated testing. As Banijays rest of the world sales chief Matt Creasey points out, Cannes is the ultimate petri dish for coronavirus, with people descending on the city from all corners of the world and socializing in the cramped bars of the Croisette.
People crave to see each other. As soon as its safe to do so, I think we will see movement and big face-to-face reunions, adds Ruth Berry, ITV Studios managing director of global distribution. While this is undoubtedly true, it is also the case that coronavirus has changed the way distributors do business forever. Scroll on to find out how 10 of the biggest studios in the world are coping with the crisis.
Mipcom was set to be the market when Banijay Rights announced itself to the world after inhaling Endemol Shine International. The two distribution companies officially became one on October 1 after some frenzied work behind the scenes merging two teams and two giant catalogs of content. An advertising and events blitz was planned, but coronavirus had other ideas.
The disappointment about Mipcom is we cant unfurl to the outside world as the new, shiny company, says Matt Creasey, EVP of sales, co-productions, and acquisitions, rest of the world. You can relax slightly in thinking its not just us, but its fair to say Mipcom would have been a perfect platform to launch.
And its not just the external play Banijay Rights has lost without a physical market. Mipcom would have been a staging post for Banijays sales and production executives from around the world to come together for the first time. For his part, Creasey has not seen his team in-person for a year, let alone had the chance to meet new colleagues from the Banijay side of the business.
Instead, Banijay has pivoted online by launching a new showroom for buyers, which spotlights 88,000 hours of content and global brands including Big Brother and MasterChef. This would have happened even in a Covid-free world, but Creasey says its taken on increased importance in the absence of industry events. Banijay is also leaning into Mipcom Online+, registering employees for the virtual market and fielding executives for industry panels.
Banijays size and scale meant it was particularly exposed to the pandemic derailing shoots. Big-ticket shows like Peaky Blinders have been delayed and Creasey admits coronavirus has broken the flow of content he can take to market. Having said that, Creasey prefers to cast forward to 2021, which he says will be amazing because a lot of shows are expected to deliver when production gets back on track. Until then, finished product is working hard. With a library like we have, it does sure you up we have weathered it, the sales chief adds.
Hot ones:
The Bridge: The competition series follows strangers as they come together to build a bridge to an island. Channel 4 and HBO Max are co-producing a UK version of the original Banijay Iberia format.
Two Weeks To Live: Game Of Thrones star Maisie Williams headlines this Sky drama, playing a misfit who finds herself on the run from a murderous gangster and the police with a bag of stolen cash.
Sony was one of the first studios out of the blocks with the move online. The company replaced its LA Screenings showcase with a virtual event in March and is doing the same for Mipcom after launching a Virtual October Formats Fest, during which it will present shows including Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?.
The beauty of having a global organization with a lot of people on the ground is, the timing of how we talk to people, can be driven by a business need rather than some other external calendar event, says Keith Le Goy, Sony Pictures Entertainments president of distribution and networks.
Le Goy says taking ownership of buyer interactions like this is essential as the pandemic evolves from being a short-term event to being something the world lives with for a long time. He sums it like this: People change the approach from, How do I get through this period of time? to, How do I now build a new sustainable way to operate my business.'
Sony has seen demand for iconic content, including c, Dawsons Creek, and Breaking Badduring lockdown. Le Goy adds that its been a time of rediscovery. Theres been an enormous amount of production over the past few years and people didnt necessarily have the time to watch all of it. Well, now people have more time and the opportunity to discover some gems, he explains.
There have been industry murmurs that Sony may pull back from Mip all together, but Le Goy says it is currently impossible to rule anything in or anything out. He adds, however, that there remains value in physical markets. You could look at this [the pandemic] and say weve missed that chance to come together as an industry and really take stock, he says.
Hot ones:
District Z: An ambitious zombie-themed adventure-entertainment gameshow created by Sonys French joint-venture partner Satisfaction Group for TF1.
Time Is Money: Previously produced by TBS in Japan as 26 Hours, the format sees celebrities and contestants performing life-hacks that free up time in their days.
Theres never a good time for a global pandemic, but at All3Media International there was some relief that a major tech upgrade was completed before coronavirus swept the globe.
We started a project called Knox and it was a way to store all our master materials in the cloud and move them around virtually. It sounds like a simple thing, but a lot of distributors are stuck in that, Send the tape here or file there way of doing things, says All3Media International CEO Louise Pedersen. It came to fruition just before Christmas and it was totally serendipitous. Im really proud of it.
The innovation has helped keep All3Medias sales conversations ticking over and Pedersen says the productivity of her team and the time spent with buyers has increased during the lockdown. This has had a direct impact on the sales houses bottom line and Pedersen is not expecting a dip in revenue. Weve had a really good year, she says.
Thats a strong statement, particularly when you consider that All3Media International lost more than 30 hours of high-end scripted content to the production shutdown. In the absence of these hours, shows that wrapped before lockdown have been important, not least ITV serial killer drama Des and Channel 5/PBSs All Creatures Great And Small.
All3Media International is supporting Mipcom Online+, but Pedersen says it is no substitute for the real thing. One of the things she is missing most about physical markets is the opportunity to create a buzz around a title. Sometimes shows can really steamroll at a market, she says.
Hot ones:
All Creatures Great And Small: Playground Entertainments reimagining of James Herriots memoirs of a country vet became ViacomCBS-owned Channel 5s highest-rated show in five years.
Gogglebox: Filming people watching TV never seemed so appealing as during lockdown. Producer Studio Lambert has tweaked the show to make it Covid-safe.
Asked what 2020 will do for eOnes sales, Stuart Baxter, president of international distribution, offers a fairly clear-eyed assessment. On pure income terms, well be much the same. There are some positives on the library and second-cycle sales, but we dont have as much new programming coming through, he explains.
Baxter says the Hasbro-owned company has opened its doors to a lot of new buyers who have been proactive in scouring new sources of programming during the production shutdown. This has led to an increase in demand for uplifting content and some unexpected sales for shows like Upright, Tim Minchins Australian road trip drama, which was originallycommissioned by Foxtel and Sky UK.
On the flip side, eOne does not have a number of shows it would have hoped to have taken to Mipcom in a big way this month. Freeforms Jessica Biel-produced series Cruel Summer has only just gone into production, while the BBC Three/Netflix horror co-production Red Rose has been moved to next year. Covid is moving goalposts for us every day, Baxter says.
eOne looked to capitalize on new and existing relationships through its virtual upfronts, eOne Preview: The Studio Edition, earlier this month. Baxter admits that there are drawbacks to pivoting online, but also some major upsides: The whole idea is to minimize any negative impact of no market In all honesty, there will be benefits if youre in a market, you have very limited branding of your event, its very much a Mipcom event. If were running our own event, theres going to be much more branding opportunities.
Looking ahead to 2020, Baxter is positive the industry will return to Cannes. He is not certain, however, that Mipcom will be as influential as it once was. It still has a role to play. Quite what that role is, we shall see.
Hot ones:
Cruel Summer: The drama takes place over three summers in the 1990s in a small Texas town when a popular teenager, played by Olivia Holt, is abducted.
London Zoo: An Extraordinary Year: Circle Circle Films and October Films offer a behind-the-scenes look at the iconic wildlife park during lockdown.
ITV Studios was one of the first major distributors to announce plans to drop out of Mipcom and go it alone. The company launched a Fall Festival, showcasing its programming lineup to hundreds of buyers over a three-week period from mid-September.
Ruth Berry, managing director of global distribution, says that planning for a physical market became impossible. Once this was acknowledged internally, her team decided fairly swiftly that the only way to deliver the showcase and the content to the market was in a virtual way.
Berry says Mipcom has diminished in its deal-making importance in recent years and is now more of a space for showcasing content, which is exactly what ITV Studios set out to achieve with Fall Festival. It offered buyers a first-look at two dramas that have returned to production in recent weeks: Season 6 of Line Of Duty and another thriller from World Productions, submarine drama Vigil.
ITV Studios was forced to halt 230 shoots at the height of the pandemic but more than 80% are now back on track. This delayed getting sales material to buyers, which could have a knock-on effect on when revenue is booked. But like others, Berry says ITV Studios catalog worked hard during the lockdown.
Its the triage moment [for our clients]. Youre trying to understand which shows are going on hiatus, which ones are going to come good, when might that [show] come back, wheres the hole in my schedule, what do my audience want to watch. Weve been on that journey with our buyers, she says.
Buyers have really leaned into Emmy-blitzing comedy Schitts Creek in recent weeks, while softer garden crime like Agatha Christies Marple have been strong sellers in the pandemic-era. Berry is also proud of selling Hulus Harlots to the BBC (a show that started life on ITV) and highlights 20 secondary window sales for Bodyguard after Netflixs holdback expired in spring.
Hot ones:
Vigil: World Productions BBC One submarine thriller series stars Suranne Jones and Rose Leslie. ITV Studios is hoping it can be the new Bodyguard for international buyers.
Dont Rock The Boat: ITV entertainment format in which two teams of celebrities row the length of Britain. The show is made by South Shore, whose founders created winter sports competition The Jump.
Weve got a really long-standing relationship with [Mipcom organizer] Reed Midem and, even though it didnt feel right to be sending our staff and expecting our customers to meet us physically in Cannes this year, we were really keen to support them, says Katie Benbow, BBC Studios director of sales planning.
The BBCs commercial arm has signed up for Mipcom Online+ and has committed to streaming an exclusive interview with the cast of Lily James series The Pursuit Of Love on the platform. Alongside this, it has launched a new website, BBC Studios Connect, where buyers can access information and interviews on the companys slate. New shows spotlighted include BBC/AMCs Ben Whishaw medical series This Is Going To Hurt, while there are also archive collections targeted at specific audience needs.
BBC Studios Mipcom lineup has been largely unaffected by the production hiatus, Benbow says, though there have been delays in getting some sales materials to buyers. Next year could be more thorny. Its difficult making TV, especially scripted in this environment, she says, adding that there has been a perfect storm of delays and strain on commissioning budgets.
Benbow says BBC Studios sales teams have worked harder to stay connected with clients, and its a trend that will continue into next year after the company moved its annual Liverpool Showcase online. She adds, however, that BBC Studios is very committed to meeting buyers face-to-face and is hopeful of returning to Mipcom next year. The studios China team is back in the office, while there have also been physical meetings in Paris and Cologne.
Hot ones:
Small Axe: Steve McQueens much-anticipated anthology drama tells five stories about Londons West Indian community, whose lives have been shaped by their own force of will despite racism and discrimination.
A Perfect Planet: Sir David Attenborough will fuse science and nature in a new landmark series for the BBC and Discovery exploring the unique systems that allow planet Earth to thrive.
Jim Packer, Lionsgates president of worldwide TV and digital distribution, lists a bunch of reasons why hes going to miss Mipcom. They range from efficient meetings to team-building exercises, but his list does not include lost revenue. Weve done more business in the last 12 months than weve done in the previous year or two as far as our catalog and new first-run licensing with movies and TV globally, he adds.
Packer stressed the need to be opportunistic alongside clients. He points to a deal he did for true-crime anthology series Manhunt: Deadly Games. The Spectrum Originals window expired and Lionsgate initially sold it to ViacomCBSs cable network Pop. But Packers team knew that CBS had holes in its fall schedule and pitched them quickly and carefully to get the show on CBS. Sure enough over the summer, they agreed to put us on Monday nights at 10PM. All of a sudden, I have a CBS network TV show I can sell internationally.
Lionsgates complex licensing deal with Amazon for Mad Men also came to fruition during the pandemic. Packer classes this as thick IP, which has he says has years of fandom and cultural resonance. He continues: That thick IP resonates even more right now. One of the best films we have in our library is Dirty Dancing. Its selling better than its ever sold because people want to have a little escapism.
Hot ones:
Love Life: Anna Kendricks HBO Max romantic comedy has sold to 20 territories internationally, including the BBC in the UK. The series has been one of HBO Maxs top performers.
Zoeys Extraordinary Playlist: The NBC musical comedy features Jane Levy as Zoe, who can hear the innermost wants, thoughts, and desires of the people around her through music. NBC renewed in June.
Fremantles international CEO Jens Richter says 2020 has been the craziest of years, but he thinks it will ultimately be remembered as a paradoxical time when people traveled less, but saw each other more. Its probably the year where you had the constant necessity of speaking with your clients to understand where they stand. While we werent able to be in touch physically, weve probably spoken more than any other year, he adds.
Richter points out that phone calls have plummetted in their importance for his sales team as video calls have taken over. Fremantle has also flexed its international muscle to maintain physical contact with buyers where possible. The company has sales executives in 10 countries and staff in Germany, Spain and Australia are currently sitting down with clients in-person. But online remains the key communication tool.
Fremantle has launched a virtual screening room for buyers which was built before the pandemic. Its cool, its slick, its efficient, says Richter, who adds that materials around new shows have to be more sophisticated. You have to do it in a more bespoke way. You create a bigger deck explaining more. You put more of your sales arguments in your assets, reels, and brochure because you have less opportunity to explain it in person. Your material has to be absolutely top quality, he explains.
Another interesting observation Richter makes is that executives are turning up to virtual meetings better prepared than they would in person. He continues: Its really interesting what the screen does to you. Sometimes in an on-the-stand conversation at Mip, theres a lot of meet and greet and casual talk. In this environment, youre pretty structured, everyones very prepared and you go straight to the shows, or you talk about the market impact.
Despite his pragmatism, Richter says hes still missing business as usual. He hopes the UK Screenings next February can be a time when distributors stage some physical screenings. Mipcom next year will be the one big one that everyone is looking forward to, he adds.
Hot ones:
Enslaved: The Lost History Of The Transatlantic Slave Trade:Samuel L. Jackson sheds new light on 400 years of human trafficking. Epix has already premiered the show in the U.S.
We Are Who We Are: Luca Guadagninos coming of age story about two American teenagers who, along with their military and civilian parents, are living on amilitary base in Italy.
Its been an unsettled year in more ways than one for Red Arrow Studios, the production arm of German broadcasting giant ProSiebenSat.1. All the way back in March, the pandemic was the official reason ProSieben gave for pulling the plug on the sale of the Love Is Blind production group. Since then a number of executives have walked away, not least CEO James Baker and sales president Bo Stehmeier.
Joel Denton, acting president of Red Arrow Studios International, is a steadying hand at the wheel having co-founded Red Arrow in 2011. He is enjoying being back on the bridge even in the treacherous waters of coronavirus. Asked if intends to stick around for a while, he says: Hopefully. Im loving it I cant quite say its business as usual because its not a usual time Its business as unusual.
RASI launched a formats festival from the end of last month, showcasing the likes of physical game show Block Out and Married At First Sight. The latter has been a big seller during lockdown, with different versions of the show cross-pollinating in different territories, such as Channel 4 picking up the Australian edition for UK audiences.
Over in scripted, Denton says RASI has done pretty well despite the production hiatus. Season 7 of Amazons Bosch is in production, as is the second series of Vienna Blood. Theres quite a variety of shows shooting everywhere from Austria to Canada, and theyre returning seasons, which is great for us because it de-risks it for us sales-wise, he adds.
Denton sums up the Covid challenge as tactical hand-to-hand combat, and says broadcasters are looking for bankable buys rather than placing big strategic bets. The sort of shows that help them through this time are big brands, he adds. Theres been a ton of business in that supersizing of brands, formats space.
Hot ones:
Block Out: A game show in which teams try clinging to a wall of moving blocks. Devised by Thailands Nippon TV, local versions have been made in Spain (RTVE) and the Netherlands (AVROTROS).
Beat The Channel: Two popular TV presenters are given the chance to win a 15-minute live broadcast slot. The show has been a hit for Germanys ProSieben.
Valerie Cabrera, AMC Studios SVP of worldwide content distribution, says attending Mipcom didnt even enter our spectrum of thinking amid the pandemic. Instead, her market started virtually in August with focused meetings around finished tape. All of our personal and business calendars have been structured around our industry. Now it has become blurred, she says of a year without major festivals like the twice-annual gatherings in Cannes and the American Film Market.
AMC Studios has seen an uptick in demand for uplifting programming. Brockmire, Shermans Showcase and Ride With Norman Reedus have been among the companys hot tickets. Though more frustratingly, Cabrera says her team has had to pull back from pitching some shows that wont be ready until 2022 as a result of coronavirus production delays.
Like other distributors, AMC Studios has spent time brushing up its screenings portal and doubling down on existing relationships with buyers. For Cabrera, a personal touch has been key and she says that virtual interactions have actually improved the quality of her conversations. One of the first markets I did was Mip Asia and it takes away from that speed dating mentality. Nobody was late, it was very direct contact and everyone is concerned about each others health, even though we dont know each other. It has really humanized our industry, she explains.
Hot ones:
Shermans Showcase: IFC/AMC variety show featuring sketches, cultural nostalgia, A-list guest stars and songs. The show was renewed for a second season in June.
The Walking Dead: World Beyond: The second stand-alone series in AMCs The Walking Dead franchise premiered this month. It follows the first generation raised in a post-apocalyptic world.
