Forecast projects U.S. COVID-19 deaths to reach double by end of year KOMO News
The governments top infectious disease doctor on Wednesday accused Sen. Rand Paul of repeatedly misconstruing information about the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic, including making misleading claims about herd immunity and the effects of mitigation measures.
Testifying before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Anthony Fauci rejected Pauls assertion that the United States' mitigation and lockdown efforts were misguided. Paul cited the experiences of countries like Sweden that did not take aggressive measures to control the virus, arguing that our death rate is essentially worse than Sweden's.
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If you look at the data, the countries that did very little have a lower death rate than the U.S., Paul, a doctor, said. "It's important that we the people not simply acquiesce to authoritarian mandates on our behavior without first making the nanny state prove their hypothesis."
New research suggests that the impact of natural and vaccine-induced immunity will be key factors in shaping the future trajectory of the global coronavirus pandemic, known as COVID-19. In particular, a vaccine capable of eliciting a strong immune response could substantially reduce the future burden of infection, according to a study by Princeton researchers published in the journal Science Sept. 21.
A new study led by Princeton researchers suggests that the impact of natural and vaccine-induced immunity will be key factors in shaping the future trajectory of the global coronavirus pandemic, known as COVID-19. In particular, a vaccine capable of eliciting a strong immune response could substantially reduce the future burden of infection.
Image by Tumisu from Pixabay
Much of the discussion so far related to the future trajectory of COVID-19 has rightly been focused on the effects of seasonality and non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs], such as mask-wearing and physical distancing,said co-first author Chadi Saad-Roy, a Ph.D. candidate in Princetons Lewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics. In the short term, and during the pandemic phase, NPIs are the key determinant of case burdens. However, the role of immunity will become increasingly important as we look into the future.
Ultimately, we dont know what the strength or duration of natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 or a potential vaccine will look like, explained co-first author Caroline Wagner, an assistant professor of bioengineering at McGill University who worked on the study as a postdoctoral research associate in the Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI).
For instance, if reinfection is possible, what does a persons immune response to their previous infection do? Wagner asked. Is that immune response capable of stopping you from transmitting the infection to others? These will all impact the dynamics of future outbreaks.
The current study builds on Princeton research published in Science May 18 that reported that local variations in climate are not likely to dominate the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and included many of the same authors, who are all affiliated with theClimate Change and Infectious Disease initiative funded by PEI and the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies (PIIRS).
In the most recent paper, the researchers used a simple model to project the future incidence of COVID-19 cases and the degree of immunity in the human population under a range of assumptions related to how likely individuals are to transmit the virus in different contexts. For example, the model allows for different durations of immunity after infection, as well as different extents of protection from reinfection.The researchers posted online an interactive version of models predictions under these different sets of assumptions.
As expected, the model found that theinitial pandemic peak is largely independent of immunity because most people are susceptible. However, a substantial range of epidemic patterns are possible as SARS-CoV-2 infection and thus immunity increases in the population.
If immune responses are only weak, or transiently protective against reinfection, for example, then larger and more frequent outbreaks can be expected in the medium term, said co-author Andrea Graham, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton and an associated faculty member in PEI.
The nature of the immune responses also can affect clinical outcomes and the burden of severe cases requiring hospitalization, the researchers found. The key question is the severity of subsequent infections in comparison to primary ones.
Importantly, the study found that in all scenarios a vaccine capable of eliciting a strong immune response could substantially reduce future caseloads. Even a vaccine that only offers partial protection against secondary transmission could generate major benefits if widely deployed, the researchers reported.
Factors such as age and superspreading events are known to influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by causing individuals within a population to experience different immune responses or transmit the virus at different rates. Our models show that these factors do not affect our qualitative projections about future epidemic dynamics, said Bryan Grenfell, the Kathryn Briger and Sarah Fenton Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs and an associated faculty member in PEI. Grenfell is a co-senior author on the paper with C. Jessica Metcalf, associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and public affairs and also a PEI associated faculty member.
As vaccine candidates emerge, and more detailed predictions of future caseloads with vaccination are needed, these additional details will need to be incorporated into more complex models,Grenfell said.
The researchers used a simple model to project the future incidence of COVID-19 cases and the degree of immunity in the human population under a range of assumptions on host immune responses following natural infection or vaccination. The middle flowchart (above) corresponds to the simplest model used by the researchers and allows for the incorporation of these different immune assumptions. The model found that, after the pandemic peak, a substantial range of epidemic patterns are possible as SARS-CoV-2 infection and thus immunity increases in the population. In all scenarios, a vaccine capable of eliciting a strong immune response could substantially reduce future caseloads.
Image courtesy of Science/AAAS
The study authors also explored the effect of vaccine hesitancy on future infection dynamics. Their model found that people who decline to partake in pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures to contain the coronavirus could nonetheless slow containment of the virus even if a vaccine is available.
Our model indicates that if vaccine refusal is high and correlated with increased transmission and riskier behavior such as refusing to wear a mask, then the necessary vaccination rate needed to reach herd immunity could be much higher, said co-author Simon Levin, the James S. McDonnell Distinguished University Professor in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and an associated faculty member in PEI. In this case, the nature of the immune response after infection or vaccination would be very important factors in determining how effective a vaccine would be.
When so much uncertainty in the underlying processes exists, it can be challenging to make accurate projections about the future, Grenfell said. We argue in this study that ultimately, a family of both simple and more complex models is the best way to proceed under these circumstances. Comparing the predictions of these models carefully and then coming up with a carefully averaged picture of the future as with weather prediction can be very helpful.
One of the main takeaways of the study is that monitoring population-level immunity to SARS-CoV-2, in addition to active infections, will be critical for accurately predicting future incidence.
This is not an easy thing to do accurately, particularly when the nature of this immune response is not well understood, said co-author Michael Mina, an assistant professor at the Harvard School of Public Health and Harvard Medical School. Even if we can measure a clinical quantity like an antibody titer against this virus, we dont necessarily know what that means in terms of protection.
Studying the effects of T-cell immunity and cross-protection from other coronaviruses are important avenues for future work, Metcalf said.
Additional authors on the paper include Rachel Baker, a PEI postdoctoral research associate; Sinead Morris, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University who received her Ph.D. in ecology and evolutionary biology from Princeton; and Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust.
The paper, Immune life-history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next five years, was published online by Science Sept. 21. This work was supported by funds from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Life Sciences Research Foundation, the Cooperative Institute for Modelling the Earth System (CIMES) at Princeton University, the James S. McDonnell Foundation, the C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute, the National Science Foundation, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Flu Lab.
Life wont return to normal until theres a COVID-19 vaccine, and that poses a big challenge, especially for Texas.
Many people are already skeptical, with a majority saying they wouldnt get a vaccine if it were available by Election Day. In that Kaiser Family Foundation poll, taken about a month ago, 62% worried that political pressure from the Trump administration would rush the process without ensuring a safe, effective vaccine.
About a decade ago, many believed the H1N1 vaccine was rushed, too, and experts said that limited its adoption.
In Texas, where millions dont have health insurance or a primary doctor, vaccine uptake already lags badly. According to a recent health scorecard by the Commonwealth Fund, just a quarter of adult Texans got their recommended flu and pneumonia vaccines in 2018. That put the state at No. 50, tied for last with Louisiana.
Just as troubling, Texas' vaccination rate on that metric fell by 11 percentage points over four years. If the state could just match the U.S. average, another 1.3 million adults would be protected.
Its always the challenge in Texas: access to care, said Dr. Trish Perl, chief of the infectious diseases division at UT Southwestern Medical Center and an infectious disease specialist at Parkland Health & Hospital System.
Texas has over 5 million uninsured residents, nearly twice as many as the next-closest state. And 1 in 3 adults, including those with insurance, dont have a primary doctor a trusted voice to help with vaccine decisions.
Were going to have to build trust and be creative about how we do it, Perl said, adding that its up to health experts like her to critically review the vaccine data and be vocal about what it shows.
She expects the vaccine rollout to start with front-line health workers who face a high risk of COVID-19 exposure. That will lead to higher adoption rates and additional data on the efficacy of the vaccine, and will also buy time to build up supplies for the larger population. If doctors and nurses are satisfied, they can become powerful influencers.
We can be role models in all of this and really help in the education process, Perl said. People do trust their health providers.
Last year, almost 97% of physicians got a flu shot, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Over 90% of nurses, pharmacists and nurse practitioners got it, too.
By comparison, just under half the total population ages 6 months and older got the flu vaccine in 2018-19.
A COVID-19 vaccine is much different, involving new technology and an unprecedented accelerated timeline. But if trials follow the science and evidence shows the vaccines are safe and effective, health workers will be at the front of the line.
Its something I will take personally, and I will advocate for my patients to take, said Dr. Stewart Coffman, an emergency room physician for over 20 years in Dallas-Fort Worth and senior vice president at the Envision Healthcare medical group.
Coffman and his wife came down with COVID-19 in March, and he said they had fairly mild cases. Hes 55 and doesnt have underlying conditions, so hes not in a high-risk group. But he wants to protect his family, patients and community and worries hed be vulnerable to COVID-19 again.
Having it doesnt necessarily confirm immunity for a long time, Coffman said.
Envision has over 1,000 clinicians in Texas, and many are focused on increasing the uptake of this seasons flu vaccine, which is starting to become available. In primary care clinics, assisted living centers and nursing homes, theyll promote flu shots for fall and follow the same playbook when coronavirus vaccines arrive.
Many patients with higher risk from flu have higher risk from COVID-19. Those with diabetes, high blood pressure and respiratory illnesses are among the most vulnerable, he said, and when theyre sick, it can be difficult to tell whether its flu or COVID-19.
Another reason to reduce flu cases is so hospitals can preserve capacity and equipment if theres a big COVID-19 outbreak.
What would be a successful uptake of COVID-19 vaccine? About 50% to 60% of the population is what Perl expects.
Id like to see 80% of people getting it because we need a lot of immunity to protect the most vulnerable, she said.
In 2009, the H1N1 vaccine covered about 27% of the nation and 40% of children, the CDC estimated. Uptake was lower than expected, and tens of millions of doses went unused.
A significant reason for this was perceptions that the H1N1 vaccine was risky, rushed through production and/or untested, according to a report from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
People have similar concerns about the coronavirus vaccine, in part because of mixed messaging. President Donald Trump has repeatedly talked of an Election Day breakthrough while his top health expert said a COVID-19 vaccine would not be widely available until the middle of next year.
I see why there would be some hesitancy, but if the approval process works the way its supposed to, that should offer some reassurance, said Dr. Seth Kaplan, a Frisco pediatrician and president-elect of the Texas Pediatric Society. The communication and information campaign is going to have to be huge because we have to reach people where theyre at.
About 60% to 70% of patients in his Frisco practice got the H1N1 vaccine, he said. And pediatricians play an important role in boosting uptake because parents and grandparents are often in the room with their patients.
Were very used to educating people about the importance of vaccines, Kaplan said.
But skepticism of science has been growing, fueled in part by anti-vaccination movements. That skepticism undermines confidence in medicine and poses an insidious threat to public health efforts.
You may have a whole mound of evidence, but if people believe differently, that seems to trump everything else, said Dr. Jason Terk, a Keller pediatrician who chairs the Texas Public Health Coalition and is active with the Texas Medical Association.
Texas has failed to expand health coverage and hasnt invested enough in public health, he said.
According to Commonwealths scorecard, Texas ranked 41st on state-based public health spending in 2018. Texas' spending per capita was less than half the U.S. average and 39% lower than Texas spent four years earlier, the report shows.
Since 2004, the medical association has vaccinated Texas children at risk through its Be Wise Immunize program. Over 360,000 shots have been delivered to kids and adults through the years.
Were trying to fill some gaps here and there, Terk said. But its not the same thing as having a real population-wide plan.
"We're rounding the corner," he told "Fox & Friends" of the coronavirus during an interview Monday morning. "With or without a vaccine. They hate when I say that but that's the way it is. ... We've done a phenomenal job. Not just a good job, a phenomenal job. Other than public relations, but that's because I have fake news. On public relations, I give myself a D. On the job itself, we take an A+."
How, you might ask yourself, could this President give himself top marks in handling the pandemic when he had admitted to downplaying the threat it posed to the public, driven skepticism about mask-wearing, pushed unproven (and even dangerous) remedies to deal with the virus and repeatedly underestimated the death toll?
Simple! Trump lives in a fantasy world of his own creation. He always has. In that world, he is the smartest, the savviest, the coolest, the best-looking and the winningest person in the world. Objective facts fall by the wayside in that world. And Trump has always -- whether in the business world or the political one -- surrounded himself with people who affirm that his world is the real one and the actual real one is some sort of conspiracy narrative driven by his "elite" enemies in the Democratic Party and the media.
All of which allows Trump to live in a sort-of bubble. Prior to being elected president, his wealth allowed him to exist in that bubble. Now the security of the White House does the same.
The problem for Trump is that in politics what grade you give yourself matters a whole lot less than the grade the people you need to vote for you give to your performance. And, on that front, Trump is failing.
The disconnect between how Trump sees his handling of the coronavirus and how the public sees it is vast. But again, objective facts play a role here.
Put plainly: There is simply no evidence the country is "rounding the corner" on the virus as Trump suggested Monday. And while Trump is free to give himself whatever grade he wants in how he has dealt with the virus, his constituents disagree. Profoundly.
CHICAGO Another seven people were reported to have died from coronavirus in the past day in Illinois.
Among the victims were five people in Cook County. At least 8,457 people have died from coronavirus in Illinois.
Another 1,477 cases were reported, as well, bringing the total up to 275,735. The states positivity rate was at 3.5 percent.
As of Sunday night, 1,436 people were hospitalized with coronavirus in Illinois, including 364 people in the ICU and 153 people using ventilators.
In Chicago, an average of 295 cases are being reported and three people dying per day, increases from last week. The citys positivity rate did fall slightly from last week, though, hitting 4.6 percent Monday.
At least 2,932 people have died from coronavirus in Chicago, and there have been 77,272 confirmed cases.
Block Club Chicagos coronavirus coverage is free for all readers. Block Club is an independent, 501(c)(3), journalist-run newsroom.
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The product was added to the agency's list of products expected to kill the virus after meeting the criteria for use against SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, an EPA spokeswoman told CNN via email on Sunday. Pine-Sol was tested by a third-party laboratory that showed the disinfectant can kill the virus within 10 minutes of being used on hard, nonporous surfaces, The Clorox Company said in a press release.
"With a long-standing history of being a powerful cleaner and disinfectant, and the trusted brand choice within the Black community, Pine-Sol Original Multi-Surface Cleaner now offers the clean families have trusted through generations with the protection they need right now against the spread of SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19," said Chris Hyder, vice president and general manager of The Clorox Company's cleaning division.
To disinfect against coronavirus, the company said customers should apply full-strength Pine-Sol with a clean sponge or cloth on a surface, wait 10 minutes, then rinse. For heavily soiled surfaces, the company said precleaning to remove excess dirt first is required.
Clorox, the world's largest manufacturer of disinfectant cleaning materials, has 36 other products on the EPA's list of disinfectants for use against Covid-19, including Clorox bleach, disinfecting bathroom cleaner and disinfecting wipes.
CNN's Christina Zdanowicz contributed to this report.
Two small studies conducted in the early stages of the pandemic found a direct link between traveling on a long flight where masks werent required and testing positive for COVID-19.
But one significant caveat is that the studies didnt measure the effects of wearing masks on planes, because they were conducted before major airlines introduced mask mandates.
Additionally, since the studies were conducted in March, many airlines including JetBlue JBLU, -8.77%, Delta DAL, -9.19% and Southwest LUV, -5.80% have blocked off middle seats on flights to create space between passengers. Many major airlines have also introduced other health safety protocols including contactless check-ins and more rigorous pre-flight screenings of passengers for coronavirus symptoms or contact with people who may have the virus.
Related: If airlines keep the middle seat empty due to fears of coronavirus transmission, will air travel become more expensive?
Is coronavirus airborne?
Initially, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that the main way coronavirus spreads is via respiratory droplets that can infect someone who is within six feet of a person who has contracted the virus.
But the CDC recently altered its guidance to indicate that the virus can spread through the air and therefore could be contracted by inhaling virus-containing air particles. Those are formed when a person who has COVID-19 coughs, sneezes, sings, talks, or breathes, the agency stated.
The agency abruptly removed that language from its site on Monday, stating that it had been posted in error to the agencys official website.
CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), the CDC website stated as of Monday afternoon.
(The agency did not directly respond to MarketWatchs request for comment.)
That wouldnt be the first time the agency reversed course in a noteworthy manner during the pandemic.
In March, CDC officials said the general public shouldnt wear masks; it later reversed course. And just weeks ago, the agency walked back its recommendation that asymptomatic individuals who have come in contact with someone who has tested positive for the virus dont need to get tested.
The CDC has maintained throughout the pandemic that traveling increases your chances of getting and spreading COVID-19, and that staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19, the CDC states on its site.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for three decades, told MarketWatch in a July interview that he wouldnt be getting on a plane anytime soon, given that, at 79 years old, he is in a risk category
However the CDC says on its website that the novel coronavirus and other viruses do not spread easily on flights because of how air circulates and is filtered on airplanes. But flying remains a concern because social distancing is difficult on crowded flights, and sitting within 6 feet of others, sometimes for hours, may increase your risk of getting COVID-19.
What the new studies showed
One study traced four cases of the coronavirus-borne disease COVID-19 to a 15-hour flight from Boston to Hong Kong on March 9. Two passengers were a married couple who were hospitalized on March 15 after testing positive for the virus. The other two cases were flight attendants, one of whom served the couple during the flight.
Genetic analysis of virus specimens from the four people uncovered a 100% identical genetic sequence, wrote an international group of researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the University of Hong Kong and other institutions, in a peer-reviewed study in Emerging Infectious Diseases, a journal published by the CDC.
Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility that patients C and D were infected before boarding, the unique virus sequence and 100% identity across the whole virus genome from the 4 patients makes this scenario highly unlikely
The researchers concluded that the married couple likely contracted the virus in North America before boarding the plane and transmitted it to the flight attendants (referred to as patient C and D in the study).
Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility that patients C and D were infected before boarding, the unique virus sequence and 100% identity across the whole virus genome from the 4 patients makes this scenario highly unlikely, the researchers wrote. We therefore conclude that these 4 patients belong to the same in-flight transmission chain.
No other cases of coronavirus associated with that specific flight were identified, according to the study. Additionally, the researchers were unable to quantify the virus attack rate on this flight because not all passengers were tested.
A second study, also published in the November edition of Emerging Infectious Diseases, traced 12 cases to one 10-hour flight on March 2 from London to Hanoi, Vietnam. In total 217 people, including passengers and crew, were on the flight.
The 12 people who tested positive for the virus were seated in business class, where the only symptomatic passenger on the flight was also seated, according to researchers from Vietnam and Australia, the majority of whom are affiliated with the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology in Hanoi.
Since all 12 of these passengers were departing directly from the United Kingdom at a time when the country only reported 23 confirmed coronavirus cases, the authors conclude that it is most likely the case that they contracted the virus on the flight
Unlike the prior study, this one did not perform a genetic analysis to confirm identical virus sequences that would verify whether the 12 passengers likely contracted the virus from the symptomatic passenger on the flight.
However, because all 12 of these passengers departed directly from the United Kingdom at a time when the country had only 23 confirmed coronavirus cases, the authors concluded that it is most likely the case that they contracted the virus on the flight.
The risk for on-board transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during long flights is real and has the potential to cause COVID-19 clusters of substantial size, even in business classlike settings with spacious seating arrangements well beyond the established distance used to define close contact on airplanes
Although testing had not been implemented on a large scale nationwide at that time, community transmission in the United Kingdom was not yet widely established, making the presence of multiple persons on board incubating the illness unlikely, the researchers wrote.
Related: Come back, Americans: Calls for urgent U.S.-U.K. air bridge as airlines hit by fresh lockdown fears
The risk for on-board transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during long flights is real and has the potential to cause COVID-19 clusters of substantial size, even in business classlike settings with spacious seating arrangements well beyond the established distance used to define close contact on airplanes, they concluded. As long as COVID-19 presents a global pandemic threat in the absence of a good point-of-care test, better on-board infection prevention measures and arrival screening procedures are needed to make flying safe.
As of Monday, COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, had infected 31.2 million people globally and 6.8 million in the U.S. It had killed nearly 1 million people worldwide and at least 200,000 in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University.
If a wildfire was blazing through the state, threatening the health and lives of thousands of Utahns, what would you do?
Mobilize fire crews? Sound the alarms? Evacuate people? Run air tankers and cut fire lines?
Because nothing is exactly what Gov. Gary Herbert has done for 10 days as COVID-19 has burned through the state.
Really, we could have seen this coming as early as Sept. 1, when the state had four days averaging about 470 new cases, nearly a hundred more each day than our average at that point.
By Sept. 10, it was clear we were in trouble when we registered 656 cases infections that we know were contracted days earlier and testing was actually falling. Sewage monitoring was signaling problems, as well. Provos wastewater system recorded some of the highest levels of the virus to date anywhere in the state on Sept. 8, but the warning was ignored.
In the ensuing week, as case totals climbed at an unprecedented rate, all we got from the governor was a furrowed-brow lecture and praise for our low unemployment rate. The Utah State Fair went ahead as planned, with 6,000 attendees each night, made possible because the governor loosened restrictions in Salt Lake City a week earlier.
On Wednesday, Utah announced 747 cases. On Thursday, it set a new record with 911, and Herbert said at his weekly news conference that he would meet with his advisers and take the next four days to come up with a plan.
The next day, Utah shattered the day-old record, adding 1,117 cases. On Saturday, it was 1,077. Sunday, it was another 920.
No rush, governor. Take your time. Well just wait over here trying our best not to get sick.
The reality is we have a plan several, in fact.
The White House coronavirus task force recommends red zone states implement universal mask requirements, close bars, restrict indoor dining, and educate vulnerable individuals on how to protect themselves.
The states own phased coronavirus response plan, which has gone through multiple iterations, offers clear direction on what restrictions should be in place, most of them similar to the White Houses guidelines like limiting the size of gatherings and indoor dining in certain scenarios, direction that the state has consistently ignored.
The governor has refused to enact any new restrictions. The plans are there. What is missing is a governor with the courage to lead.
In fairness to Herbert, last week when I saw the surge building and warned people to take it seriously, I wrote that government rules and enforcement cant solve the problem. That was stupid. Government cant solve the problem alone, but it has to do something.
Since the alarms sounded Sept. 10 up through Sunday, we have recorded 7,753 new cases. Utah has the seventh highest infection rate in the United States and the fourth highest rate of transmission. Like Utah, the states ahead of us have refused to take steps to limit the spread.
The best time for action was last week. The second best time for action is now. Here are the steps the state ought to take immediately.
Herbert should implement the White House recommendations close bars, restrict occupancy in restaurants, limit the size of indoor and outdoor gatherings, and yes, finally, impose mask requirements in counties with infection rates above 100 cases per 100,000 people per week. As of Sunday, that included Utah, Cache, Millard, Weber, Sanpete, Juab and Wasatch counties, plus Salt Lake, where masks are already required.
Some in Utah County wont like it. Too bad. If it improves public safety, it needs to be done. The absurd alternative from Utah County leaders, according to a FOX 13 report, is to give coupons for goodies to young people wearing masks.
The Utah County sheriff says he wont enforce a mandate. I guess hes fine with his county being engulfed. But enforcement in Salt Lake County has not been a problem. Most voluntarily comply, and that really is the goal.
The state Board of Education should move high schools in hot spot counties online until the spread is controlled. Colleges and universities should do the same.
Infection rates among elementary school students have been low, but the 15-24 age group is driving the COVID explosion, accounting for about 42% of cases. It wont stay confined to that group and has already started to spread to older Utahns who will have to be hospitalized and some of whom will die.
With the full-blown community spread we have among most of the states population, there is nothing schools can do to keep out the virus. The only sensible option is to move education online in those counties the White House considers hot spots Utah, Cache and Salt Lake counties, and probably Weber and Davis, as well.
If we want schools to stay open (which may already be impossible), Monday should be test day for the teachers. A developing testing tactic is to pool samples from large populations with low rates of infection. That way testing is cheaper and easier, especially with saliva testing now available. If the pooled sample comes back positive, individual samples can then be tested.
Young students may be less vulnerable, but teachers are susceptible, and we need to try to keep the virus out of their ranks.
The same tool could easily be deployed to monitor for the virus in college dorms and anywhere else with concentrated populations.
Brace for what is next.
Weve already started to see cases jump up in older populations, and those older populations will get sick and need to be hospitalized. Despite the lull in COVID cases, our intensive care beds are already above 71% full (most of them not with COVID patients).
We dodged a bullet in July when our hospital capacity was threatened and maybe we will again. But we need to be prepared for the worst and have a plan for the flood of patients that is likely to come right as flu season hits full swing.
Do I think the governor will do most of these? Probably not. He wants buy-in from local communities and is paralyzed by the thought of upsetting legislators.
And thats tragic, because while Utah waits for Herbert to muster the courage to lead, we are losing time and COVID is burning through more and more of the state. This will forever be a stain on his legacy.
Percentage of positive coronavirus tests remains high as overall testing down Fox11online.com
