Then Governor Charlie Baker announced the start of Phase 2 in reopening the states economy on June 8, allowing hotels and short-term rentals to host leisure travelers after being closed to most business for much of the spring. And in a heartbeat, Ashe had the Edgartown home booked right back up.
The pandemic has brought a boom for short-term rentals on Cape Cod and the Islands as vacationers rush to book a cure for their cabin fever. In an unexpected twist for homeowners and agents who had braced for a bust, summer 2020 is turning out to be even stronger than previous years that did not have public health concerns or a recession hanging over the rental market.
According to WeNeedAVacation.com, a local website that markets short-term rentals on the Cape and Islands, total bookings so far are 24 percent above last year. Vacancy rates are at or below 5 percent for most of the summer, well below levels of last summer.
Julie Jason, co-owner of Waterfront Rentals in West Yarmouth, said half of the 160 rental contracts her agency lined up earlier this year were canceled at one point; now, nearly every single week is booked again.
The market right now, it just exploded, Jason said. Ive been doing this for over 20 years, and Ive never experienced the volume of inquiries and bookings for such a short period of time.
Hotels on the Cape are also enjoying a modest boost after a tough spring, though nothing like short-term rentals. Wendy Northcross, chief executive of the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce, said the occupancy rate for Cape Cod hotels peaked at 91 percent on Saturday, July 4. However, hotel room prices are much lower than last summer, while rates for short-term rentals have remained relatively steady.
Northcross said many business owners feel the numbers are better than they feared, especially with fireworks and other big events canceled. Beaches are open, and many restaurants offer outdoor dining.
Other parts of the country were not as fortunate as weve been, Northcross said. Knock on wood, our business is still OK. But its very uncertain.
Homeowners and real estate agents say rental homes give vacationers more flexibility for social distancing than hotels and motels. Michele Noonan said that was a definite selling point for her three-house compound in Dennis Port that she rents for $12,000 a week. She initially faced a slew of cancellations, but those weeks were quickly filled after Baker reopened short-term rentals.
Im still getting e-mails more than one a day sometimes from would-be vacationers in New England, Noonan said. I think everybody is afraid to fly. Two people who booked with me had international trips but they shifted their funds to stay local.
Some renters arent even technically on vacation and instead are using a Cape rental as a satellite work-from-home base. A consistent question I get is, How good is your WiFi? said Margie Nilson, a partner at Marietta Realty in Harwich.
David Southworth, co-owner of the Willowbend development in Mashpee, said remote-work urbanites from metro Boston and New York are looking for a change of scenery. The ownership rules at Willowbend require stays of at least one month for renters. But this is a high-end market: Rents are running as high as $50,000 a month, and that doesnt include the extra fee for access to the golf course and other country club amenities.
If a house has four bedrooms and a pool, you can pretty much get whatever you ask, Southworth said.
Kiersten Kaye and her husband rented a three-bedroom house near Craigville Beach in Barnstable for two weeks in August. They are working both weeks, though will take some time off during the day to relax.
Going into this, we did not have the point of view of vacationing, said Kaye, a Waltham resident who works at engineering software firm Dassault Systemes. We absolutely had the point of view of [needing] a change of scenery.
Kaye is staying at a house owned by Anne Mayo, who said she first started advertising the place for $2,500 a week at the beginning of June. Its now booked through Labor Day, and Mayo is still getting inquiries.
I was shocked at the surge, Mayo said. People are scrambling.
But the summer of 2020 has not been without its complications. Homeowners have had to adopt more stringent cleaning regimens, for example, as well as new protocols for bed linens. And face masks are now as common as beach chairs.
There are definitely twists on it, but its still your Cape Cod vacation, Nilson said. People were just so stir crazy, being at home during the quarantine. They really needed a beach on Cape Cod.
Jon Chesto can be reached at jon.chesto@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jonchesto.
For the 14th straight week, the state Department of Public Health released a breakdown of the total number of coronavirus cases in each Massachusetts city and town.
Until this week, the state provided data on the communities with the highest rates of cases per 100,000 people. This data was no longer included, but some new information offers a snapshot of cases in recent weeks.
Among cities and towns with at least 15 new cases in the last two weeks, these 25 communities have the highest percentages of positive cases in the last two weeks:
Data from between July 1, 2020, and July 15, 2020, omitting communities with under 15 new cases in that span. The state notes that previous reports were based on the number of people who tested positive, but this percentage is instead based on the total number of positive tests. Both tallies are listed in the chart above.
The numbers in Lawrence are particularly noteworthy. As part of the "Stop the Spread" initiative, it is one of eight communities that began offering free testing last week. In the last 14 days, only Boston, Worcester and Springfield saw more tests administered, but 6.32% of the tests in Lawrence came back positive the highest rate in the state among communities with at least 15 new cases. Fall River, also part of the initiative, followed with a rate of 6.25%.
Take a closer look at last week's list.
Schools out for summer. And maybe longer, as scientists race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. But why is it taking so long?
The first of four episodes of Today, Explained to Kids: Summer Camp, Voxs explainer podcast for kids, answers that question by taking kids back to the Island of Explained to talk to scientist Maria Elena Bottazzi, a microbiologist who co-leads vaccine development at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, about the development of a vaccine. We also take a curious kid, Mikah, to meet the Experimoth and learn more about why designing an experiment isnt always as easy as it seems.
Listen to the episode with the young people in your life or just because and then come back here to download our episode discussion guide and a fun (and kinda gross) experiment you can do with kids (or, again, by yourself) that builds on what we learned in the episode.
Grown-ups: The discussion guide riffs on what we learned in the episode and the experiment to help start a conversation about social issues. Just like science experiments, its all about open-minded observation, asking questions, making predictions, and challenging conclusions.
Thanks to early childhood education specialists Rachel Giannini and Saleem Hue Penny for developing our learning materials!
Listen to more Today, Explained to Kids episodes:
Support Voxs explanatory journalism Every day at Vox, we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you, and our audience around the world, with information that has the power to save lives. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower you through understanding. Voxs work is reaching more people than ever, but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn. Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation, but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles, videos, and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires. Please consider making a contribution to Vox today.
TheWest Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR) reports as of 10:00 a.m., on July 17,2020, there have been 219,947 total confirmatory laboratory results receivedfor COVID-19, with 4,710 total cases and 100 deaths.
DHHR has confirmed the death of an 84-yearold male from Cabell County. We are deeply saddened by this news, a loss toboth the family and our state, said Bill J. Crouch, DHHR Cabinet Secretary.
In alignment with updated definitions fromthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the dashboard includes probablecases which are individuals that have symptoms and either serologic (antibody)or epidemiologic (e.g., a link to a confirmed case) evidence of disease, but noconfirmatory test.
CASESPER COUNTY (Case confirmed by lab test/Probable case):Barbour (24/0), Berkeley (537/19), Boone(52/0), Braxton (5/0), Brooke (31/1), Cabell (205/7), Calhoun (4/0), Clay(15/0), Fayette (96/0), Gilmer (13/0), Grant (21/1), Greenbrier (74/0),Hampshire (44/0), Hancock (50/3), Hardy (48/1), Harrison (134/1), Jackson(149/0), Jefferson (261/5), Kanawha (464/12), Lewis (24/1), Lincoln (15/0),Logan (41/0), Marion (122/3), Marshall (74/1), Mason (26/0), McDowell (12/0),Mercer (67/0), Mineral (69/2), Mingo (39/2), Monongalia (643/15), Monroe(14/1), Morgan (19/1), Nicholas (19/1), Ohio (174/0), Pendleton (18/1),Pleasants (4/1), Pocahontas (37/1), Preston (88/21), Putnam (96/1), Raleigh(89/3), Randolph (194/2), Ritchie (3/0), Roane (12/0), Summers (2/0), Taylor(26/1), Tucker (7/0), Tyler (10/0), Upshur (31/2), Wayne (141/2), Webster(2/0), Wetzel (39/0), Wirt (6/0), Wood (190/11), Wyoming (7/0).
As case surveillance continues at thelocal health department level, it may reveal that those tested in a certaincounty may not be a resident of that county, or even the state as an individualin question may have crossed the state border to be tested.
Pleasenote that delays may be experienced with the reporting of information from thelocal health department to DHHR.
Please visit thedashboard at www.coronavirus.wv.gov for more detailed information.
Pregnancy is a time of hope and dreams for most women and their families even during a pandemic. Still, their extra need to avoid catching the coronavirus has meant more isolation and sacrifices, too. Leo Patrizi/Getty Images hide caption
Pregnancy is a time of hope and dreams for most women and their families even during a pandemic. Still, their extra need to avoid catching the coronavirus has meant more isolation and sacrifices, too.
Carissa Helmer and her husband had been trying to get pregnant for five or six months by early April, when COVID-19 started to spike in the Washington, D.C., area where they live. Maybe, they mused, they should stop trying to conceive for a few months.
But then a pregnancy test came back positive.
"We were, like, 'Oh well I guess it's too late for that!' " Helmer says, laughing.
In some ways, she says, there are a few convenient aspects to being pregnant now starting with being able to work from home. Before the pandemic, she and her husband both commuted 90 minutes each way to their jobs in the city driving to the subway, then taking the train downtown. Because she's now working from home in her job in the subscriptions department at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, Helmer is able to get more sleep and has been able to combat morning sickness with ginger ale and crackers. "On the Metro, you're not allowed to eat or drink at all," she says.
But other aspects of the pregnancy have been tougher than she expected. For one thing, she's had to go to all of her doctor's appointments by herself.
"It's completely understandable," Helmer says, "but I think that that's something ... we hadn't anticipated in a first pregnancy that my husband wouldn't be able to be in the room."
Carissa Helmer and her husband, Timothy, had been trying to get pregnant for months when COVID-19 first spiked in the Washington, D.C., area where they live. Helmer says she's found a few things convenient about being pregnant now: being able to work from home, getting more sleep, and not having to deal with morning sickness on the subway. Deborah Helmer hide caption
Then there's the delicacy required in making rules about visits from relatives.
"We've been trying to be really strict with them," Helmer says, advising extended family: " 'You know, it's really important that you're quarantining for 14 days before you come and visit us.' I think that's been a little hard to explain to some folks, just to tell them that I'm more at risk, and it's not anything against them."
Though she sounds relaxed, Helmer tells me that she's worried about getting the coronavirus.
"I'm terrified," she says. "My husband's still going to the grocery store, and that's pretty much the only place that he goes. And the only place that I go is the doctor's office."
Digging into the data about COVID-19 and pregnancy
How worried should expecting parents be about any extra risks the coronavirus might pose to the mom or developing fetus?
The answer and advice may continue to change, public health officials say, as the evidence rolls in. In June, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a study showing pregnant women may be more likely to develop a severe case of COVID-19 than other women their age when they become infected with the virus. And just this week, physicians in France published a case study that strongly suggests a newborn caught the coronavirus before birth from his mother via the placenta.
"Where you can, you need to decrease your exposures. But that has to be practical," says Dr. Laura Riley, an OB-GYN at New York-Presbyterian Hospital who chairs the department of obstetrics and gynecology at Weill Cornell Medicine, and has been involved in devising pandemic guidelines for practitioners and patients on behalf of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.
Because this coronavirus is relatively new to humans, the evidence about the added risks it imposes on a pregnancy is scant. The June CDC analysis was partly reassuring, suggesting that women who get COVID-19 when pregnant are at no greater risk of dying from the virus than nonpregnant women their age, though they do seem to be at somewhat greater risk of developing a severe case of the illness.
The study reviewed more than 91,000 U.S. women of reproductive age who had a lab-confirmed coronavirus infection; of those, roughly 8,200 were pregnant at the time. Compared with other women of reproductive age who tested positive for the virus, pregnant women more often went into the intensive care unit and were more likely to need mechanical ventilation.
The data also showed that pregnant women who are Hispanic or Black may be at higher risk of infection than white pregnant women. (Black and Hispanic people in the U.S. have been found to be at greater risk of contracting the coronavirus and at higher risk of death from COVID-19.)
But there were limits to the CDC study that are worth noting, Riley says limits that may have made the added COVID-19 risk to pregnant women look bigger than it is.
First, pregnancy status was only known for 28% of the women of reproductive age who tested positive in the study. That means some infected women who went on to deliver perfectly healthy babies were likely not counted. And for those whose pregnancy status was known, data on race and ethnicity, symptoms, underlying conditions and outcomes were missing for a large proportion of cases. That, too, may have skewed their findings, the researchers who did the analysis say.
Then there's the matter of hospitalization rates for pregnant women. Many hospitals have implemented universal coronavirus screening for anyone admitted to a hospital's labor and delivery unit. What the evidence analyzed by the CDC doesn't reveal, Riley points out, is whether a pregnant woman was being hospitalized because of symptoms of COVID-19, or because she was going into labor.
"You can't tell from this data who came in because they were sick with COVID, and who came in because they were just going to deliver and were oh, by the way, COVID-positive," Riley says.
Plus, she says, it's hard to tell from the CDC data whether a pregnant woman was admitted to the ICU because her case of COVID-19 was severe, or because that particular hospital was only equipped to handle a pregnancy involving COVID-19 in an ICU.
There was one finding in the CDC data that does stand out to Riley as potentially worrisome: "It seemed pregnant women were more likely to need the mechanical ventilation, which suggests more severe disease."
Still, even there, she says, the number of coronavirus-positive pregnant women in the study who were sick enough to need a ventilator was quite small: 42 women out of 8,207 that's half of 1%.
Riley says her own OB-GYN practice includes many high-risk pregnancies including some older women, some who are pregnant with twins or triplets, and some who have underlying health conditions such as chronic hypertension or diabetes. So does this new data change what she tells her patients about pregnancy in the age of COVID-19?
Not really, she says.
"What it underscores, and what I tell my patients," Riley says, "is you just need to remain diligent in terms of all those things that we know work [to prevent infection with the virus]. We know social distancing works. We know that wearing a mask works. We know that washing your hands frequently works." Guidelines from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists also advise "limiting contact with other individuals as much as practicable" and urge patients to "maintain an adequate supply of preparedness resources including medications."
Where it can get harder for her patients, she says, is that, to keep the mother-to-be protected, partners and other members of the household need to take those same precautions. "That may not be so easy," Riley says, "but it's absolutely critical."
If pregnant women do have symptoms of COVID-19 or have been exposed to the coronavirus, they need to let their doctors know so they can be tested and receive appropriate care, Riley advises.
''Am I just going to be housebound the whole of pregnancy?''
Taking every precaution can mean staying close to home.
Kate Bernard lives in Austin, Texas, where she works at a music nonprofit and sings with her band KP and the Boom Boom. Originally from Yorkshire, England, she met her husband 10 years ago on a trip to Austin, and they married 2 1/2 months later.
Kate Bernard met her husband, David, a decade ago on a trip to Austin, Texas, and became pregnant in March. These days, she says, she's grateful to be able to do her work for a music nonprofit from home. Kate Bernard hide caption
Their world changed suddenly in mid-March: "The coronavirus lockdowns were just being announced that week that we got pregnant," she says.
The pandemic led to canceling the gigs the band had scheduled, and Bernard says she's not sure how she would have fared if she'd had to perform, considering her pregnancy-induced nausea and the Texas heat. These days, Bernard says, just 20 minutes outside in the heat makes her queasy, "and some of those gigs were outdoor gigs where you're playing for an hour, two hours."
To try to steer clear of the coronavirus, she's doing her nonprofit job from home. Bernard says she's grateful that's an option she has been able to work in bed whenever the sciatic pain in her back flares.
"I just can't imagine having to get dressed and get myself together" to go to the office, she says she figures she would have felt compelled to keep her pregnancy under wraps at work until the end of the first trimester.
Not that concealing it would have been easy in her small, open-plan office. "We've just got one bathroom, and they'd have heard the puking," she says, laughing. "They'd have known."
Bernard says her life has been a roller coaster since March, and the current surge of coronavirus cases in Texas only adds to her concern.
"We don't know when this is going to end, and it doesn't give you hope when the numbers are going up in the state that you live in," she says. "Am I just going to be housebound the whole of the pregnancy?"
Before the new CDC data came out last month, Bernard had been encouraging her husband to go places such as a downtown park or swimming at Austin's aquifer-fed Barton Springs Pool. And she had been hoping to swim in the pool at their apartment complex and engage in other activities that bring her joy. But now she feels like they'll both need to be more cautious, and the pools have closed in light of the pandemic. In addition to being pregnant, Bernard has asthma another risk factor that can make COVID-19 more severe.
"I like to make my own mind up about things," she says, adding that she and her husband both "try and think outside the box and live our life alternatively. But I just think it's just better to be safe than sorry at the moment."
Undeterred by COVID-19
So, do pregnant women really need to be housebound for nine months? Riley, the New York OB-GYN, says that would not be realistic.
For one thing, they need prenatal care. "Yes, we can do some prenatal care by telehealth, but we can't do it all that way. We can't assess your baby with you at home."
Plus, there are many other reasons to get out and move your body, she says: "Your mental well-being is not to be ignored." The need for fresh air or to take a walk are part of staying healthy, and going to work may be necessary financially, Riley says.
Dr. Carroll Medeiros is a professor at Brown University's Alpert Medical School and an OB-GYN at Southern New England Women's Health. She says many of her patients in Providence, R.I., don't have the luxury of working from home during the pandemic. Many are also Hispanic or African American.
Classified as essential workers, a number of her patients are still going in to do their jobs often at hospitals or nursing homes, she says or they live with an essential worker, and that, too, increases their risk of exposure to the virus.
Some of Medeiros' patients work in a factory where roughly 70 employees became infected with COVID-19.
"These people are mostly Black and brown," Medeiros says, "and it just shows the inequality. You have less of a chance of having a really good job in this country if you are Black and brown."
Many of her pregnant patients are worried about catching the virus, Medeiros says, but "it's hard for them to take off time when they feel like they are most at risk. You take off time you might lose your job."
Despite all the anxieties and the unknowns, Medeiros says she hasn't seen indications in her practice that people are avoiding pregnancy out of fear of the pandemic.
"They are very few and far between people who have told me, 'Oh, you know, we've changed our mind. We're not going to do it right now,' " Medeiros says. "People have come to have their intrauterine devices removed and to start trying. I don't think it's deterred anybody. But they have a lot of concerns about it."
''That hopefulness of having a child''
In Austin, Bernard anticipates that when her baby is due in December, the U.S. will still be grappling with the risks and effects of COVID-19.
And the current unrest over racial injustice and policing has added extra stress, Bernard says.
"I've just got to have hope for the new life," she says, "that bringing a baby in, we're going to teach it right from wrong. I think that's what I'll be holding on to that hopefulness of having a child. And rather than it being doom and gloom in the current times, having hope that the next generations will do a better job."
The wagon on Jennifer Oiss front porch is a symbol of the coronaviruss silver lining. Its red and wooden, with black rubber wheels that once fell off, when Ms. Ois was towing her first child and a frozen turkey home from a store many years ago.
These days, the wagon is crowded with homemade things like fermented turmeric soda, ginger-berry kefir water, lemongrass ice cream and fresh lettuce from the garden, all waiting to be picked up by a neighbor.
Now its got a whole other purpose, says Ms. Ois. Its carrying kindness down her street.
Since visiting her neighborhood on Hiawatha Road a few weeks ago, Ive returned to it many times in my mind. I find it comforting. It reminds me that despite the viruss darkness, it has offered some illumination a slowing of time and a return to lifes essentials. The people on this street have used that time to learn old-fashioned skills like fermentation and growing vegetables, and in the process theyve become a community.
Theyve been lucky, too while some on the street have lost employment to the virus, this part of the city has been relatively unscathed by Covid-19 infections and deaths.
The street is classic east-end Toronto three long blocks of houses huddled together, as if for warmth. It was once part of a 600-acre farm owned by the Ashbridges, an English Quaker family from Pennsylvania who fled to Canada as Loyalists after the American Revolution. It remained a farm outside the city limits for more than a century, until the land was parceled and sold off for shacks for the immigrating poor and for planned subdivisions.
Walking down the street, you can see the signs of that history in the architecture old working-class bungalows wedged beside gentrified two-story brick homes. You can also see locals homesteading in ways that Sarah Ashbridge, the matriarch of the Quaker settlers, would likely recognize.
Ms. Ois is known locally as the fer-mentor. On her stove, a pot of water, grated ginger and molasses cools next to her ginger bug the makings for ginger ale. Her slow cooker is warming milk for yogurt. She pulls colorful jars out of her fermenting cupboard homemade vinegars, kombuchas and pickles.
For many years, she bugged her neighbors to try her hobby, but they were too busy, rushing from work to childrens hockey practices. When the country went into lockdown in March, she found a captive audience with long days to fill and anxiety to expend.
When this all happened, everyone else came into my world, said Ms. Ois, 43, a stay-at-home parent. Many said, I dont know what to do. Well, I know what to do. Im an expert at it.
She offered kombucha scobies, sourdough starter, and seeds for her neighbors nascent vegetable patches. She left them all in the wagon on her front porch, and texted pictures of her handwritten recipes.
Just down the street, Guillermo del Aguila had set up a hydroponics nursery in his basement for the first time, to supply the seedlings for his familys backyard greenhouse. He was better at it than he expected. He joined in the exchange, issuing his own community offerings: eggplant, sweet pepper, tomato and leek seedlings.
Jon Harris lives a few doors down. Both he and his wife had been deemed essential workers, so time had not stopped still for them. But he found making bread soothing. The baking section of grocery store shelves was bare, but he knew of a commercial mill and put out a call to the street. His first order was for 300 kilograms of flour and 25 pounds of yeast.
Theres something magical happening, said Mr. Harris, 44, an electrician.
He added, I wonder if there is something about watching the world spin around you and thinking about your mortality. We have a little more space to grab onto the things we want to be important.
The trading and pioneer hobbies have continued, even as the city has begun slowly to open up. Ms. Ois set up a swap page on Facebook, and offers went up from neighbors for homemade granola, freezer strawberry jam, lavender, eggs, espresso syrup, bitters for cocktails. Deborah MacDonald ventured to the red wagon to pick up champagne yeast to make raspberry mead, with Ms. Oiss handwritten recipe. She left fresh-baked bread.
I used to joke I didnt know anybody on the street, said Ms. MacDonald, a film producer who often clocked 11-hour days at the office. While there was a sense of community before, many of her neighbors barely knew each other before the virus stitched their friendships.
Weve all helped each other get through this crazy time, said Ms. MacDonald. In some respects its allowed us to forget a little about all the terrible.
Ms. Oiss husband hammered together a greenhouse in their backyard that she called the house Covid built. She and the del Aguila family plan to grow seedlings for their neighbors bursting gardens next spring.
Theres no going back, said Kara del Aguila, Guillermos wife, who considers the street her precious lifeline.
We dont order flowers for delivery anymore, she said. We go to our neighbors homes and knock on the front door and give them something we made.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau apologized again this week this time for taking part in a decision to award a no-bid government contract to a charity deeply connected to his family. The countrys ethics commissioner is digging into the affair, marking the third time Mr. Trudeau has been investigated for breaking conflict-of-interest rules since coming to power in 2015.
Since a New Jersey hedge fund quietly assumed ownership of Postmedia, Canadas largest newspaper chain, the company has cut its work force, shuttered papers across Canada, reduced salaries and benefits, and centralized editorial operations in a way that has made parts of its 106 newspapers into clones of one another, my colleague Edmund Lee reports.
Catherine Porter is the Canada bureau chief, based in Toronto. Before she joined the Times in 2017, she was a columnist and feature writer for The Toronto Star, Canadas largest-circulation newspaper. Follow her on Twitter at @porterthereport
Were eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to nytcanada@nytimes.com.
Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up here.
The study found that the "accuracy of surface meteorology forecast in March-May 2020 decreases remarkably" as flight density drops due to Covid-19.
The research examined weather forecasts from March 2020 and compared them to actual observed weather in the same time frame.
"It is the temperature forecast where accuracy went down," says Chen. Patterns of hot and cold air are critical in hurricane formation and prediction. If temperatures cannot be tracked accurately, it could be more challenging to identify hotspots early on.
The forecasts that meteorologists create for hurricanes rely in part on computer models. These models are only as good as the data that is put into them.
This data comes from a variety of tools, including aircraft, cruise ships, satellites, buoys, weather balloons, ground stations, and radar. The Covid-19 outbreak has significantly reduced the amount of data we get from two of those tools -- aircraft and cruises.
More importantly, meteorologists find themselves at a greater disadvantage, especially over water, where these observation tools are already limited. Over land, they can just launch extra weather balloons or add additional ground stations to help make up the loss of flight data.
But they can't do that over water. Buoys are unevenly distributed and are notorious for data errors. These floating devices alone can't provide a complete and accurate picture of a particular region of the ocean. Meteorologists need the combination of all available tools to accurately understand the state of the atmosphere across the globe at a given point in time.
How it affects forecasts
One way to make up for some of that data loss is having other observation tools gather additional data.
"When the National Weather Service is anticipating high impact weather events, such as a possible tornado outbreak or a potential landfalling hurricane, (it) will usually conduct 'special' weather balloon launches to take additional weather measurements in the upper levels of the atmosphere," explains Kyle Theim, a meteorologist with the NWS in Atlanta. "The accuracy and precision of our weather models are paramount, and these additional observations can then help weather models and forecasters predict how extreme weather events will unfold."
"We find that the reconnaissance soundings have significant beneficial impact." Data collected by hurricane hunter reconnaissance flights is especially effective and can help make up the loss caused by the drop in commercial flights and cruises.
This is especially important for tropical systems where temperature and wind observations are fundamental in getting a more accurate forecast.
Forecasts were better and worse in different areas
The study found that the differences vary by location. Remote areas like Greenland and Siberia saw the greatest issues with lower flight numbers.
"This is because assimilation of aircraft observations provides a much larger improvement in forecasts over regions where very limited conventional observations are available," says the study. It is already difficult to forecast for these remote regions, so the loss of flight data has a greater impact.
A similar effect hurts forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere.
"Degradation of the weather forecast is more substantially in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere," says Chen. The Northern Hemisphere has more population and significantly more flights than the Southern Hemisphere. A drop in flights over the Northern Hemisphere is consequently more impactful on the ability to accurately forecast the weather.
Forecasts could get worse
The results of the study actually go against normal predictions of accuracy improvement over time.
"A similar analysis for February 2020 suggests that the forecast accuracy of surface meteorology could have been expected to improve in 2020 compared with 2017-2019, if aircraft observations were carried out as usual," the study says. This hit to accuracy comes at a time when Covid-19 is exacerbating the effects of severe weather on vulnerable populations.
The research warns that the issue of accuracy will only get worse as the Covid-19 pandemic continues.
"Further worsening of weather forecasts may be expected and that the error could become larger for longer-term forecasts," says Chen. "This could handicap early warning of extreme weather and cause additional hardship for daily life in the near future."
TheWest Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR)reports as of 5:00 p.m., on July 16, 2020, there have been 219,052total confirmatorylaboratory results received for COVID-19, with 4,657 totalcases and 99 deaths.
In alignment with updated definitions fromthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the dashboard includes probablecases which are individuals that have symptoms and either serologic (antibody)or epidemiologic (e.g., a link to a confirmed case) evidence of disease, but noconfirmatory test.
CASESPER COUNTY (Case confirmed by lab test/Probable case):Barbour (24/0), Berkeley (536/19), Boone(50/0), Braxton (5/0), Brooke (31/1), Cabell (202/7), Calhoun (4/0), Clay(14/0), Fayette (95/0), Gilmer (13/0), Grant (21/1), Greenbrier (74/0),Hampshire (44/0), Hancock (47/3), Hardy (48/1), Harrison (133/1), Jackson(148/0), Jefferson (257/5), Kanawha (463/12), Lewis (23/1), Lincoln (15/0),Logan (40/0), Marion (120/3), Marshall (74/1), Mason (26/0), McDowell (12/0),Mercer (67/0), Mineral (68/2), Mingo (39/2), Monongalia (633/15), Monroe(14/1), Morgan (19/1), Nicholas (19/1), Ohio (162/0), Pendleton (17/1),Pleasants (4/1), Pocahontas (37/1), Preston (88/21), Putnam (96/1), Raleigh(85/3), Randolph (193/2), Ritchie (3/0), Roane (12/0), Summers (2/0), Taylor(26/1), Tucker (7/0), Tyler (10/0), Upshur (31/2), Wayne (141/2), Webster(1/0), Wetzel (38/0), Wirt (6/0), Wood (191/10), Wyoming (7/0).
As case surveillance continues at thelocal health department level, it may reveal that those tested in a certaincounty may not be a resident of that county, or even the state as an individualin question may have crossed the state border to be tested.Such is the case of Logan County in this report.
Pleasenote that delays may be experienced with the reporting of information from thelocal health department to DHHR.
Please visit thedashboard at www.coronavirus.wv.gov for more detailed information.
Theres a lot of information out there about how governments, health professionals and the general public should respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO has published guidance and advice every step of the way.
During health emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic, one of WHOs most vital roles is to gather data and research from around the world, evaluate it, and then advise countries on how to respond.
WHO teams work with experts from around the world to develop this guidance. Together, the experts review reports, studies, presentations by countries, they analyse trends, consult further expert groups and then agree on the best approach. The guidance is meant for health decision makers who adapt the information for their country and context. As new scientific knowledge emerges, the documents are updated.
Since January 2020, WHO has published more than 100 documents about COVID-19. Of these, more than half are detailed technical guidance, on how to find and test cases, how to provide safe and appropriate care for people depending on the severity of their illness, how to trace and quarantine contacts, how to prevent transmission from one person to another, how to protect health care workers, and how to help communities to respond appropriately.
WHO uses many platforms to reach people with the guidance, beyond publishing it online and sharing it directly through networks. It provides resources and regular updates for those working in professional sectors. WHO teams monitor social media and work with technology companies to get ahead of potential waves of misinformation.
WHO holds regular virtual press conferences from its headquarters in Geneva and its 6 regional offices around the world.
As of July 2020, more than 3.7 million people had enrolled in the OpenWHO platform, which has more than 100 free online courses about COVID-19 in 31 languages, including courses for health workers and other frontline responders.
Below is a summary of some of the documents WHO has developed for COVID-19 and how they can be used.
For many years, WHO has been working with countries to prepare for a global pandemic, and has published guidance to help all countries prepare and brace for future outbreaks.
For countries where resources are scarce or where theres risk of overwhelming a fragile health system, WHO has published guidance on COVID-19 preparedness and response in low capacity and humanitarian settings.
Building the capacity to find, isolate, test, safely monitor and care for COVID-19 patients is vital, and WHO has published a practical manual and online course detailing how to set up and manage a severe acute respiratory infection treatment centre. The manual covers everything from distancing in waiting areas to ventilation, rational use of personal protective equipment (PPE) and the recommended use of transparent surfaces. WHO has also published detailed guidance to help clinicians care for patients with COVID-19.
WHO has outlined detailed guidance on how to find and test cases during different phases of the pandemic. In addition to case finding, contact tracing is essential in tracking and breaking chains of transmission of COVID-19. WHO provides technical guidance on contact tracing explains what constitutes a contact, how to identify contacts and how best to monitor contacts in quarantine.
When health systems are overwhelmed, both deaths directly from the outbreak and deaths as a result of vaccine-preventable and treatable conditions increase dramatically. Countries will need to make difficult decisions to balance the demands of responding to COVID-19 with the demands of maintaining the delivery of health services for sufferers of other illnesses. WHO has guidance and a list of actions that countries should consider in order to maintain access to high-quality essential health services for all.
Physical health injuries may be more noticeable than mental ones, but a global pandemic can have huge adverse effects on peoples mental health too. The booklet on mental health services during COVID-19 offers background and explanations for why maintaining mental health services is crucial in order to avoid a second global health emergency. It offers suggestions on assisting those who may be suffering, particularly those in vulnerable populations like frontline health workers and the ageing population.
As some countries look to ease restrictions, its important that they have access to all the information needed to ensure changes to behaviour are safe and managed. WHO has provided guidance on when and how to adjust large scale public health and social measures.
WHO has published a list of considerations for decisions about reopening schools. It outlines what questions should be answered before countries determine the status of education facilities. A similar document has been published on health measures in workplaces.
For densely populated urban centres, a comprehensive guide is available, listing the steps to both prepare for and respond to a potential COVID-19 outbreak. The guide includes real examples from cities around the world that have made necessary changes to their infrastructure in anticipation of an outbreak.
Restricting large gatherings has helped in limiting the spread of the virus. As some countries begin to allow gatherings again, it has never been more important to remain vigilant. For organizers of mass gatherings, the key planning recommendations from WHO outline the necessary precautions and safety measures when hosting large crowds of people.
For religious gatherings specifically, where close contact with others is common, guidelines have been published that include recommendations around devotion practices and conducting safe burials.
As restaurants continue to provide people with nourishment, food safety is of utmost importance. WHO has published guidance around food safety, including the use of plastic gloves, social distancing and meal delivery.
The common thread through the technical guidance is the need for governments to make informed decisions and to clearly communicate with their citizens. While some guidelines are universal washing hands, maintaining distance, staying home if unwell with symptoms of COVID others require a response tailored to specific contexts. WHO is committed to providing decision-makers with the information they need to make the best decisions for and with their people.
The technical guidance library is growing every week as scientific knowledge evolves. If the guidance is applied consistently and correctly, countries can not only learn to prevent and respond to current outbreaks, they can arm themselves with the necessary tools to fight health emergencies for generations to come.
The full library of technical documents published by WHO can be found here.
Story
As cases of COVID-19 continue to increase across the state, Gov. Jay Inslee and Sec. of Health John Wiesman today announced a new limit on social gatherings and a ban on live entertainment across the state.
The steps are necessary to slow down the spread of COVID-19. The unfortunate truth is that we cant let our guard down, even as we engage in more activities, Inslee said during a press conference Thursday. As we inch closer to the fall, we are already on an unsustainable path in the spread of this virus. We have to change to save lives and to avoid turning the dial back further on the activities we enjoy.
Under the new Safe Start phase limits, the number of individuals allowed in social gatherings during Phase 3 will be reduced from 50 people to 10 people. Counties in Phase 2 may continue to have social gatherings of up to five people.
Additionally, the governor and secretary announced a prohibition on all live entertainment, indoor or outdoor, statewide. This includes drive-in concerts, comedy clubs and music in restaurants.
The orders go into effect Monday, July 20.
Read the rest of the story on the governor'sMedium page.
Public and constituent inquiries | 360.902.4111Press inquiries | 360.902.4136
