Surrounded by some members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, President Trump speaks at a press conference on COVID-19 in March in the Rose Garden. Of the 27 task force members, two are women, standing to Trump's left: Dr. Deborah Birx and Seema Verma (holding the sheaf of papers). Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption
Surrounded by some members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, President Trump speaks at a press conference on COVID-19 in March in the Rose Garden. Of the 27 task force members, two are women, standing to Trump's left: Dr. Deborah Birx and Seema Verma (holding the sheaf of papers).
There are 27 members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force.
Only two are women: Dr. Deborah Birx and Seema Verma, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
It's a gender breakdown that's echoed around the world. For example, 10 of the 31 members and advisers of the World Health Organization's Emergency Committee on COVID-19 are women, and of the 25 members of the WHO-China joint mission on COVID-19, 20% are women.
Although research has shown that men appear more likely to suffer more severely or die from COVID-19 than women, the pandemic is, by some measures, taking a greater toll on women.
Health care workers are at greater risk of infection than the general population, and 70% of the world's health workforce, according to the WHO, are women.
Countries are reporting higher numbers of reports of domestic violence as stay-at-home orders have confined women to tight quarters with abusive family members. And widespread shutdowns have disrupted women's access to maternal health services. A study in The Lancet estimates, in its worst-case scenario, that nearly 60,000 additional women could die of maternal health complications over a six-month time period as a result of COVID-19.
In response to this lack of voice, women activists around the world have pushed for better representation with mixed results.
In March, Roopa Dhatt, a physician who is the co-founder and executive director of Women in Global Health, held a dozen one-on-one meetings with representatives from U.N. agencies and governments, encouraging them to include more women on their coronavirus task forces.
Dhatt says most of the people she spoke to told her that "now is not the time" for such discussions. In a conversation with a senior member of a "global agency that has been leading" on the COVID-19 response, she says she was told: "We're in a wartime, and we have to prioritize what's the most urgent."
Since then, Dhatt has seen signs of progress in the effort to bring women and women's issues to the table.
But there are still obstacles. "I don't think we've had too many honest conversations as to why women are left out in the first place. It's based on this fundamental lack of confidence in what they can bring to the table," says Loyce Pace, president and the executive director of Global Health Council, a coalition of academic institutions, think tanks and groups in the global health sector. "To exclude someone that's a choice."
Here are some of the issues that women are fighting for:
Data based on gender
Problem: Some countries are not reporting the gender of confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths. According to Global Health 50/50, a research project of the University College London's Centre for Gender and Global Health, out of 106 countries surveyed, 23 do not have sex-disaggregated data. This includes countries with some of the largest COVID-19 case counts in the world: Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
The lack of gender-specific data matters, experts say. Dhatt says she believes that women face more situations that put them at risk of the disease. At home, they are more likely to be the ones caring for an ailing family member, exposing themselves to the virus, Dhatt says. And the risks that face all health workers fall disproportionately on women because of their high numbers in that field, she says: long hours, high stress and insufficient or inadequate personal protective equipment. Amina Jama, who leads Somalia's chapter for Women In Global Health, says that in her country, some health care workers have had to use the niqab, the Islamic covering that shields the face, as a face mask.
Women face an additional problem with personal protective equipment: It may not fit correctly, says Anna Purdie, program manager at Global Health 50/50.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is critical for PPE to fit properly to ensure protection, from the gown to gloves to goggles. But women don't always have access to PPE geared for women's frames. In fact, a 2016 survey of 3,086 women in a range of industries, conducted by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers Support Network and other groups, found that just 29% of respondents reported that the PPE they wear is designed for women.
If data establish higher infection rates among female health workers than among male health workers, then "the data can be used to devise policies and strategies that are gender-sensitive," says Jama for example, a government requirement that they be given properly fitting PPE.
The solution (in progress): Somalia is a partial success story. The initial COVID-19 data were not categorized by gender and age, but after four weeks of advocating for this breakdown, Jama and the Somalia chapter of Women in Global Health, along with other local nonprofits and advocates, say the government has begun releasing this information.
One initial finding is that the average age of women infected is younger than men. But the data have not yet been conclusive because the information is too preliminary, Jama says. As a result, the government has not made any changes to its policies, but Jama is continuing to monitor the data.
Women at the table
The problem: Women, because of their vast presence in health care, have crucial knowledge that can help shape COVID-19 prevention but decision-makers are not consistently tapping into their expertise, Jama says.
She shares the story of a nurse she met at a weekly Facebook chat for Somalian women health care workers, who make up an estimated 80% of the health workforce, according to the Ministry of Health.
The nurse said she was told to encourage people in the low-income community where she worked to wash hands frequently. "And she felt guilty telling [that to] people who do not have water to drink," Jama says.
After health authorities set up hand-washing stations in the area, people came not to wash up but to fetch water for household use.
If the nurse had been invited to share her insights with members of the country's COVID-19 task force, Jama says, "she would have told them that they need to provide water to drink first and then bring the hand-washing campaign."
The solution (in progress): Global health advocates are pressing for female representation in COVID-19 task forces. Dhatt and her group finally got their breakthrough in May at the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization. Some of the policies that Dhatt had been negotiating with member states to include in their own COVID-19 strategies made it into the World Health Assembly resolution: language calling for more involvement of women in pandemic decision-making as well as for COVID-19 plans to respond to the needs of all genders.
Getting words into a document may not sound like a big deal but is an important first step, Dhatt says. "These resolutions ensure from a global perspective that governments are prioritizing gender. Second thing is, these documents become useful for how funding is allocated. Without that language in the resolution, it's hard to hold governments to account."
Policies that consider women
The problem: As some governments develop policies to address the pandemic, services to women are severely affected. In May, the U.S. sent a letter to the United Nations, requesting that the agency remove references to "sexual and reproductive health" including abortion services in its COVID-19 plan, saying that the "U.N. should not intimidate or coerce Member States that are committed to the right to life." Women's health groups expressed concern, saying these services are an essential part of health care in an emergency such as the pandemic.
"From the very beginning," says Lyric Thompson, senior director of policy and advocacy for the International Center for Research on Women, "there should have been an analytical and intentional process [among U.S. foreign policy makers] that asked, 'How do we make sure the policy choices that we make are not exacerbating issues for women?' "
The solution (in progress): Create foreign policies that take women's well-being into account, Thompson says. In May, she and representatives from a coalition of more than 50 humanitarian and women's rights groups rolled out a vision for a U.S. "feminist foreign policy." They're calling for the creation of a "feminist inspector general" at the White House, among other actions, to ensure that international programs from trade initiatives to humanitarian aid are designed for women and protect women from the get-go in any future crisis.
Feminist foreign policies have been put in place in countries such as Sweden, France, Canada and Mexico.
Karina Gould, head of Canada's international development ministry and its Feminist International Assistance Policy, says she hasn't had any trouble convincing Canadian leaders to put gender on the global COVID-19 agenda. "I'm leading that. I can push that. That's my decision."
Since the pandemic began, "a large part of what I've been trying to do with Canada's international assistance is to stay the course on sexual and reproductive rights work," she says.
On Monday, the agency announced it would give $93.7 million to six global sexual health and reproductive rights projects to ensure access to safe abortion and contraception during the pandemic. The funding will benefit organizations such as Ipas, which provides contraception to Rohingya refugee women, and the U.N's family planning agency, the U.N. Population Fund, in countries such as Indonesia, South Africa and Tanzania.
Thompson says she hopes that the U.S. can adopt a similar gender-focused approach to foreign policy. "The key points we are advocating for transcend partisan politics and would benefit any administration," she says.
But Pace of the Global Health Council warns that the challenge with any new effort to bring women into all levels of COVID-19 planning or any policy for that matter is that "it doesn't solve all problems. Where the rubber meets the road is how that policy is executed."
Coronavirus has accelerated the shift to virtual reality shopping, drone deliveries, and human-free stores like Amazon Go, according to one top banker.
Investors looking for companies that are ahead of the curve in terms of the future of grocery shopping should focus on Walmart WMT, -0.18%, Amazon AMZN, -0.79% and Kroger KR, +0.30% partner Ocado OCDO, +2.86%, Paul Cuatrecasas, founder and chief executive of investment bank Aquaa Partners, told MarketWatch in a recent briefing.
The coronavirus outbreak has seen demand for online grocery shopping surge as customers stay at home to avoid coming into contact with others.
A recent report by grocery fulfillment service Fabric forecasts online sales could make up one-tenth of all grocery sales by the end of 2020, four years sooner than previously expected.
This pandemic has just turbocharged really everything ahead by five years and food and grocery is one of those areas, Cuatrecasas said.
Walmart has filed patents for virtual reality shopping technology, said Cuatrecasas, which will let shoppers browse supermarket shelves, filling up baskets from the comfort of their living rooms.
I think convenience stores, store shops will always be around in the same way that the fax machine is still around, in the same way that people still do use horses and carts in some parts of the world, he said.
Read:Walmart surpasses eBay in U.S. e-commerce for the first time, Amazon still tops: eMarketer
But when 5G and virtual reality technologies are more advanced, with the ability to project holograms and simulate touch, why would we ever want to go to store again? he said.
U.K. stock Ocado is known for its customer fulfillment centers, which complete orders from online grocery shoppers almost entirely using robots.
Ocado announced in June it expected the shift to online shopping to stick and it raised 1.07 billion ($1.2 billion) to take advantage of the opportunity.
In five to 10 years, Cuatrecasas said, people will browse supermarket shelves from home wearing widely available VR headsets. And well have programmed into that experience, a friend stopping by or, someone that we find attractive, saying, Hi, how are you?
And our orders will be picked and delivered by a mix of robots, drones, and self-driving cars.
The technology exists now, though it is bulky and expensive, Cuatrecasas said, but shopping with holograms is four or five years away.
Also:Amazon could redesign Whole Foods stores to accommodate online grocery delivery orders: KeyBanc
Coronavirus, particularly if there is a second wave, will speed up the adoption of delivery drones too, he said.
Parcel drones, I think, will be approved more quickly than they otherwise would have been without this pandemic, especially if we get a real, you know, a second wave coming here in the fall, he said.
With all the sci-fi sounding technology being developed, though, there has to be a purpose. So while Cuatrecasas said groceries could arrive on the moon in 10-15 years, it is more likely it will be needed on Mars or asteroids.
It will rely massively on 3-D printing technology and lab-grown foods like Impossible Food and Beyond Meat BYND, -2.72%.
We dont have many cows or plants growing on Mars, nor will we. Were going to need vertical farms and, you know, lab meat, all of that is going to be necessary, he said.
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Vaxart Inc. VXRT, +71.88% said Friday its oral COVID-19 vaccine has been selected to take part in a non-human primate challenge study funded by the U.S. government's 'Operation Warp Speed' program, that aims to accelerate development of a vaccine. The study is designed to evaluate the efficacy of the candidate. Chief Executive Andrei Floroiu said it's the only oral candidate in the program. "SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is primarily transmitted by viral particles that enter through the mucosa - nose, mouth or eyes - strongly suggesting that mucosal immunity could serve as the first line of defense," he said in a statement. "In addition, our vaccine is a room temperature-stable tablet, an enormous logistical advantage in large vaccination campaigns." Vaxart shares soared 75% premarket on the news. The stock has skyrocketed since the start of the year and is up more than 1,600%.
ST. LOUIS You and your home computer could help discover a medicine, vaccine, or even a cure for COVID-19. Its is an amazing story and happening right here in St. Louis.
The more people we get the faster we can go, said Dr. Greg Bowman, a researcher at Washington University School of Medicine.
Bowman and his team are tying together home and work computers from around the world and using all that computing power to help cure COVID-19.
These calculations could easily take 10 million years on a single computer. When you get 10 million computers working together, we can now do them in a year, he said.
So far, they have 4 million computers connected. The computers have created a model created by all those machines which shows the coronavirus attaching to a human cell and infecting it.
The virus is made up of proteins or tiny like machines. Researchers are creating a map of what the proteins can do.
Trying to understand how they work and, in this case, how we can break them to prevent the virus from infecting us and taking over our cells and replicating itself, Bowman said.
Those millions of computers do all the work. Your computer can too. You download a program and, while you sleep, your computer goes to work and youve become a citizen scientist.
Bowman said theres lots of security built into the program to keep your computer from becoming infected. Researchers have promising results they hope to publish in the soon.
Our estimate we are 5 to 10 times more powerful than the worlds fastest super computer, he said.
After COVID-19 is solved, researchers will return to working on Alzheimers and Ebola.(web editors please include the following after my story thanks roche)
To download the Folding@home software and start contributing to COVID-19 research, visit https://foldingathome.org/start-folding/.
Dr. Fauci is cautiously optimistic there will be a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2020 or early 2021 MarketWatch
June 26 (Reuters) - Vaxart Inc:
* VAXARTS COVID-19 VACCINE SELECTED FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENTS OPERATION WARP SPEED
* VAXART - COS ORAL COVID-19 VACCINE SELECTED TO PARTICIPATE IN A NON-HUMAN PRIMATE CHALLENGE STUDY ORGANIZED & FUNDED BY OPERATION WARP SPEED Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:
Dr. Anthony Fauci testifies before Congress on coronavirus testing, treatment and vaccine development. FOX Business Edward Lawrence with more.
Companies based in the U.S. and abroad are competing for funds to develop a coronavirus vaccine as soon as possible.
MELINDA GATES: THESE PEOPLE DESERVE TO GET CORONAVIRUS VACCINE FIRST
Experts say developing such a vaccine can take years and billions of dollars, but already vaccine testing is underwayin countries includingthe United States andSouth Korea.
Billionaire Bill Gates, who has contributed millions to the fights against the virus,saidin Junethat he's most encouraged by the three vaccine candidates made by Moderna, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson. Gates believes it is possible to scale up to 10 billion doses of a successful vaccine in two years in order to achieve global herd immunity, he said according to Forbes.
A researcher at Protein Sciences moves a vial in a lab, Thursday, March 12, 2020, in Meriden, Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)
There are 172 COVID-19 vaccines in development and 13 in clinical testing, according to tracking by the Milken Institute.
Here are some of the companies furthest ahead inpursuing coronavirus prevention:
Massachusetts-basedModerna Therapeuticswas the first U.S. company to get acoronavirusvaccine ready for human testing. Its CEO said the company would put the vaccine at thesame price pointas similar existing vaccines.
Moderna is set to test its vaccine on 30,000 volunteers starting in July.
United Kingdom-based AstraZeneca is partnering with Oxford University to deliver a coronavirus vaccine to European countries including France and Germany should the vaccine be proven effective.
Testing began in April.
WHY IS BILL GATES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST CORONAVIRUS?
Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceutical company Janssen worked with Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, part of Harvard Medical School, to test and select its lead coronavirus vaccine candidate in March.
Johnson & Johnson plans to start human clinical studies in July.
The company has partnered with the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, which is part of theDepartment of Health and Human Services, to commit to investing more than $1 billion infighting the coronavirus.
Jennifer Haller, left, receives the first shot in the first-stage safety study for a potential COVID-19 vaccine for at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Inovio Pharmaceuticals is a Pennsylvania-based biotech company that received a$71 million grantfrom the Department of Defense on June 23to scale up its Cellectra intradermal DNA vaccine delivery device.
Inovio already received $10 million from billionaire Bill Gates'Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovationsto accelerate testing of the device.
Inoviosaidit created a coronavirus vaccinehours after getting access to thegenetic sequence in mid-January.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ON FOX BUSINESS
China-based CanSino received the go-ahead to begin human clinical testing inChina.CanSino is known for creating the first Ebola vaccine to gain approval anywhere in the world.
The company releaseddata from its first round of testing, which it said warranted "further investigation,"in late May, BioSpace reported.
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Republican Florida governor Ron DeSantiss faltering response to soaring new coronavirus numbers in his state is descending into acrimony, after an accusation his administration is cooking the books in an effort to hide the true impact of the devastating pandemic.
The claim from the states former leading Covid-19 data scientist comes as Florida records a second successive day of new cases of the disease above 5,000 the highest figures since the pandemic began.
The situation in Florida is part of a widespread surge of infections across broad swathes of the US, especially in states often run by Republicans which have rushed to reopen their economies.
So far this month, Florida has seen confirmed cases more than double from 56,000 to above 114,000, and set daily records on seven of the last 13 days. Meanwhile, the number of deaths among Florida residents has climbed to almost 3,400.
Rebekah Jones, who says she was fired from her job in charge of the states official Covid-19 database in May for refusing to manipulate its figures, claimed on social media to have evidence that employees at Floridas department of health have been instructed this week to change the numbers and begin slowly deleting deaths and cases so it looks like Florida is improving next week in the lead-up to July 4, like theyve made it over the hump.
Theyre only reporting all these cases now so they can restrict reporting next week to make everyone think its over, she said.
DeSantis, a Donald Trump loyalist who has refused to slow Floridas reopening or implement a statewide mask mandate, angrily dismissed the claim, calling a reporter from the Miami Herald who asked him about it embarrassing.
You guys have been on the conspiracy bandwagon for months, he snapped at a press conference on Thursday, without addressing the specifics of Joness assertion. You need to move on.
By any standards, it has been a rough week for DeSantis, who is standing firm against mounting pressure from public health officials and even some political allies for tighter measures to counter the viruss steep resurgence in his state, with its large population of vulnerable elderly retirees.
A month after berating reporters whom he said waxed poetically for weeks and weeks about how Florida was going to be just like New York, that scenario has been realized, with New York joining New Jersey and Connecticut this week in ordering visitors from Florida among other badly affected states to quarantine.
Hospital systems around Florida are reporting steep drops in the availability in intensive care and other beds, even as the department of health changes how it records such figures.
Perhaps more wounding is veiled criticism from fellow elected Republicans.
While DeSantis resists calls for a statewide mandate on masks, municipalities including Miami have enacted the requirement; Miamis mayor Francis Suarez is proposing $250 fines for those who refuse.
Suarez has also debunked DeSantiss often-repeated claim that increased testing accounts for Floridas coronavirus surge. It has really nothing to do with an increased amount of testing. It has to do with more people that are getting tested coming out positive, he said.
In Miami-Dade county this week, the rate of positivity of those tested reached 27 percent, almost three times greater than the countys average 14-day target of 10 percent.
The masks issue has become a political battle in Florida, with Palm Beach county passing a mandate in the face of furious resistance from some residents, one of whom declared at an extraordinary commission meeting this week that the move would throw Gods wonderful breathing system out the door.
Even Marco Rubio, Floridas senior Republican US senator, weighed in. Everyone should just wear a damn mask, he said.
But DeSantis, like the president, has refused to advocate for the wearing of masks, despite incontrovertible scientific evidence they help curtail the spread of the disease.
Ron DeSantis has followed Donald Trumps erratic leadership for three and a half months, and it clearly has not worked out for Floridians, said Terrie Rizzo, chair of the Florida Democratic party. Their eagerness to declare victory before the job was done has led us to this moment.
Data scientist Jones, meanwhile, continues to be one of the biggest thorns in the governors side. After her dismissal, for insubordination according to DeSantiss staff, the geospatial science graduate created her own privately-funded rival Covid-19 database for Florida.
Based on official state figures, Joness platform expands them in several key areas, notably increased numbers of cases and deaths. Those figures are higher, she says, because Florida reports only statistics for residents, and does not include out-of-state visitors.
Additionally, the Jones database features statistics that the state site does not, including the number of ICU beds available across Florida, and whether any of its 67 counties meets current state criteria for reopening. As of Thursday, only three did.
The Florida department of health did not respond to a request from the Guardian for comment about Joness allegations of data deletion, or the discrepancies between her database and the state figures.
Public health experts say that accurate data is essential for responding to the pandemic.
That data is clearly indicating we have a problem. Testing data, symptom data, hospitalisation data, its all been clearly going up, said Dr Mary Jo Trepka, professor and chair of the department of epidemiology at Florida International Universitys Robert Stempel College of public health.
To prevent a dangerous new virus from having its way with humankind, you might take a page from the Chinese warrior king Sun Tzu, and think like the enemy.
Imagine you are a coronavirus, in a form never before seen by humans. Your goal is simple but wildly ambitious: invade and hijack the cells of a new host and multiply for as long it takes to establish your spawn in at least one other new host.
Repeat until there are no humans left to infect.
Since its emergence in Sun Tzus homeland, the coronavirus known to scientists as SARS-CoV-2 has gone about its task with vigor and success. It has jumped national borders with ease, infecting more than 9 million people around the world and killing at least 470,000 in about seven months. The roughly 7.7 billion people who have evaded infection so far seem to be squarely in its sights.
But humankind has a few tricks of its own.
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In fits and starts, public health officials have mustered their citizens to shun the kinds of gatherings that provide a virus rich opportunities to spread. Scientists have peered into the coronavirus genome to unlock secrets about where it came from, how it has evolved and what it will take to thwart it.
Now its a race to see which side gains the upper hand.
Viruses are not as smart as humans, but they are much more patient, said Harvard University epidemiologist William Hanage. And this virus track record does not bode well for a strategy of ignoring it in hopes it will burn itself out, he added.
That would be waiting for the virus to help us, Hanage said. Thats not a good idea.
Bernie Erwig, 84, is wheeled out of a nursing home in Riverside after a test showed he had COVID-19.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
The imperatives of survival make a successful virus an unpredictable guest cruel to some, kinder to others, and capable of evolving new strategies as its pool of potential targets thins.
Theres no reward for a virus lineage to be easy on its host, said Frederick M. Cohan, an evolutionary biologist at Wesleyan University.
It must not kill him immediately, as many early forms of the Ebola virus did to their victims. Such outbreaks are destined to fizzle.
But a successful virus is fine with leaving its victim a depleted shell, Cohan said: As long as it has succeeded in making him sick enough to draw others to his bedside where theyre exposed to his bodily fluids or respiratory droplets, it will live to infect another victim.
It need not be choosy about its victims, at least initially. It can spare the young and healthy and go after the weak and infirm first, as the coronavirus appears to be doing.
But experts believe that a virus that stands the test of time will ease up as its potential hosts dwindle and public health precautions take hold.
To continue to spread under such circumstances, a virus must leave many of its victims in good enough shape to move around. It could attack younger hosts, who may not get as sick but will be better spreaders. It could be transmitted by people who dont even realize theyre infected. The coronavirus has done all of these, to great effect.
Many viruses have an inherently uphill battle to climb: As they make their way through a population, the victims they infect will either die or recover. And those who recover will typically emerge with some immunity.
So after its initial romp through a target-rich environment, a novel virus finds its potential victims have dwindled. People vulnerable to infection are not so close together anymore. Thats a problem for a respiratory virus like SARS-CoV-2 that can only spread if potential hosts are clustered together. (Many other viruses spread in water, or in the bellies of mosquitoes, fleas and birds, so social distancing doesnt counter those as well.)
An overly aggressive virus may become a victim of its own success, infecting so many people so fast that it creates what epidemiologists call herd immunity. In that scenario, the uninfected targets that remain are just too far apart for the pathogen to keep spreading.
Of the seven coronaviruses known to make humans sick, at least four have found a way to circumvent herd immunity and sustain themselves for the long haul. These viruses, all which cause variations on the common cold, leave most of their victims with immunity that wanes in little more than a year. The pool of people who are susceptible to becoming hosts is continuously renewed as infected peoples immune defenses forget the virus that has made them ill before.
No one knows if the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 shares that trait. But a welter of studies suggests that, in many who were infected, immunity is either weak or transient.
As a matter of evolutionary biology, theres another way to maintain an inexhaustible supply of potential hosts: If a virus can mutate fast enough, and in specific ways, it can elude recognition by an immune system it has encountered it before.
The new coronavirus mutates steadily because its genetic instructions are encoded in RNA. Compared to a DNA virus like the one that causes measles, an RNA virus is simpler, and less likely to correct the mistakes that accrue each time it replicates.
Most of the mutations are tiny substitutions of nucleotides that have no effect on the virus behavior. But over time, those accumulated errors can change the way it looks to an immune system, or how it interacts with its environment or its hosts. And every once in a while, a mutation (or series of them) hands the virus a sudden advantage.
Red Cross members remove patients from a house during the 1918 influenza pandemic. By the time the third and final wave was over, an estimated one-third of the worlds population had been infected.
(St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
The 1918 influenza pandemic took off after a chance mutation turbocharged its reproductive machinery. Patients got sicker more quickly, and with their immune systems fully mobilized, they expelled more virus when they coughed and sneezed infecting more of the people around them.
Scientists have watched the new coronavirus genetic makeup change, prompting some to assert that more virulent and transmissible strains are circulating. Those claims have been fiercely debated. But SARS-CoV-2s knack for shape-shifting is what transformed it from a virus that thrived in bats and possibly pangolins into one capable of infecting humans.
Additional mutations could bring new challenges for humans or new opportunities. If were lucky, a mutation could make the virus less infectious, or less lethal.
But humans, too, have appropriated some tricks to counter viral strategies like these.
Long before our ancestors understood that germs spread disease, they realized that creating distance between people resulted in fewer of them getting sick. During an outbreak, those with means fled cities for their homes in the country. Those who stayed avoided the marketplace. Public spectacles were canceled. It was the beginning of the public health strategy we now call social distancing.
The coronavirus needs people to jostle close to each other and touch common surfaces in order to spread from person to person. Social distancing alters the environment to mimic the effects of herd immunity.
The other way to deny a virus new hosts is to put more people in the recovered category a status that more than 4.6 million people now have.
You do that by letting the pandemic run its course, assuming that immunity will last. Or you can make a vaccine.
Allowing the coronavirus to have its way with humanity would be a disaster on a scale somewhere between disastrous and unimaginable: Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch has estimated that with minimal human intervention, SARS-CoV-2 would plausibly infect 20% to 60% of all adults between 1.5 billion and 4.5 billion people. Even if it ends up being no more deadly than the seasonal flu a highly optimistic assumption between 1.5 million and 4.5 million would die.
A widely deployed vaccine could provide herd immunity, stopping the virus in its tracks and resulting in far fewer deaths. But that will take time. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that parallel efforts to design, test and produce many vaccines will probably yield at least one by years end.
Until then, this wily foe has time on its side and some proven tricks to sustain itself.
While the coronavirus may not touch every person on the planet, it appears to have gained the foothold it needs to keep trying, said Columbia University virologist Angela Rasmussen. Like many flu viruses, it could mutate just enough from year to year to seem new to our immune systems each time it comes around. It could also change in ways that make it more like the four other coronaviruses that have infected humans for eons: killing few while making most people just sick enough to pass it on.
From a virus point of view, the definition of success is to become the common cold, Cohan said. Along with many microbiologists, he suspects this virus has what it takes to go the distance. Humans could outsmart it with a good vaccine, though the immunity it offers may be only temporary. And many who do not fear catching the virus would probably skip it anyway.
He hopes his suspicions are wrong. But a career of studying disease-causing microbes has been chastening, he said.
Were not smart enough to know what theyre going to do, Cohan said. And if we think we know, theyll just surprise us.
