Media Advisory
Tuesday, June 23, 2020
NIH workshop attendees review capabilities, limits of SARS-CoV-2 serology testing.
More than 300 scientists and clinicians from the federal government, industry and academia published a report of their conclusions and recommendations on COVID-19 serology studies online in Immunity. The group gathered for an online workshop in May to discuss the role of serology testing in understanding and responding to the COVID-19 public health crisis and to explore strategies to address key scientific knowledge opportunities and gaps in the emerging field. Serology tests for COVID-19 are designed to detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. While such tests do not diagnose active infection, they can indicate prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 that may have been missed because a person did not experience significant symptoms or access testing while infected.
The COVID-19 Serology Studies workshop was convened by an interagency working group comprised of experts from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services including scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI), parts of the National Institutes of Health, as well as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the Department of Defense. Attendees assessed efforts to better understand the implications of serology test results, to produce and validate test kits, and to quantify undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Attendees recommended that additional research is needed to determine if and to what extent a positive antibody test means a person may be protected from reinfection with SARS-CoV-2. Attendees emphasized that until such data is available, serology tests should not be used as a stand-alone tool to make decisions about personal safety related to SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Researchers are now pursuing studies in humans and in animal models to better understand SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Attendees noted that such understanding could help identify optimal donors of convalescent plasma that potentially could be used to help treat those with severe COVID-19.
Researchers from NCI reviewed progress in their effort to independently validate SARS-CoV-2 serology tests on behalf of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Attendees also proposed strategies to expand the accuracy and capacity of these tests to distinguish between naturally acquired and vaccine-induced antibodies, which will be critical to evaluating COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
Both community-based and large-scale serology surveillance efforts such as the RESPONSE study sponsored by NIAID and NHLBI are collecting critical data to improve epidemiological models and inform public health decision-making. Ideally, attendees noted, federal partners will expand this activity to establish an interactive serological database that will help public health officials monitor and quickly respond to changes in SARS-CoV-2 infection patterns.
A Lerner et al. COVID-19 Serology Studies Workshop: Meeting Report. Immunity DOI: 10.1016/j.immuni.2020.06.012 (2020).
Cristina Cassetti, Ph.D., deputy director of NIAIDs Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, is available for comment.
NIAID conducts and supports research at NIH, throughout the United States, and worldwide to study the causes of infectious
About the National Institutes of Health (NIH):NIH, the nation's medical research agency, includes 27 Institutes and Centers and is a component of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. NIH is the primary federal agency conducting and supporting basic, clinical, and translational medical research, and is investigating the causes, treatments, and cures for both common and rare diseases. For more information about NIH and its programs, visit www.nih.gov.
NIHTurning Discovery Into Health
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Marking more than five years since conflict escalated in the country between Government forces and their allies, against Houthi rebel militias, the new UNICEF report warns the number of malnourished children could reach 2.4 million by end of year, almost half of all under-fives.
An additional 30,000 children could develop life-threatening severe acute malnutrition over the next six months.
Yemen five years on: Children, conflict and COVID-19 warns that as Yemens devastated health system and infrastructure overall struggles to cope with the coronavirus pandemic, the already dire situation for children is likely to deteriorate considerably.
UNICEF reported that an additional 6,600 children under five could die from preventable causes by the end of the year. With a health system teetering closer to collapse, only half of health facilities are operational, with huge shortages in medicine, equipment and staff.
More than eight million people, nearly half of them children, depend directly on the agency for water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), amid ongoing conflict, cholera outbreaks and the COVID-19 pandemic.
We cannot overstate the scale of this emergency as children, in what is already the worlds worst humanitarian crisis, battle for survival as COVID-19 takes hold, said Sara Beysolow Nyanti, UNICEF Representative to Yemen.
As the worlds attention focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic I fear the children of Yemen will be all but forgotten. Despite our own preoccupations right now, we all have a responsibility to act and help the children of Yemen. They have the same rights of any child, anywhere, Ms. Nyanti added.
In the report, the agency alerts for almost 10 million children without proper access to water and sanitation, as well as for 7.8 million children without access to education, following school closures.
Widespread absence from class and a worsening economy could put children at greater risk of child labour, recruitment into armed groups and child marriage, the report highlights.
UNICEF
Volunteers teach people living in settlements, in Sana'a, Yemen, instructing them on social distancing and other preventative measure against COVID-19.
If we do not receive urgent funding, children will be pushed to the brink of starvation and many will die. The international community will be sending a message that the lives of children in a nation devastated by conflict, disease and economic collapse, simply do not matter, Ms. Nyanti pointed.
Yemen five years on: Children, conflict and COVID-19 warns that unless US$54.5 million is received for health and nutrition services by the end of August, more than 23,000 children with severe acute malnutrition will be at increased risk of dying; there will be shortages on the childrens immunization, and 19 million people will lose access to healthcare, including one million pregnant and breastfeeding mothers and their children.
The report also highlights that crucial water and sanitation services for three million children and their communities will begin to shut down from the end of July, unless US$45 million is secured.
UNICEF is working around the clock in incredibly difficult situations to get aid to children in desperate need, but we only have a fraction of the funding required to do this, conlcluded Ms. Nyanti.
On Wednesday, the UN humanitarian chief warned that Yemen will fall off the cliff without massive financial support.
Speaking to a closed virtual Security Council meeting on Wednesday, Mark Lowcock said that coronavirus was spreading rapidly across Yemen, and about 25 percent of the countrys confirmed cases, have died.
At a minimum, we can expect many more people to starve to death and to succumb to COVID-19 and to die of cholera and to watch their children die because they are not immunized for killer diseases, he said.
The UN relief chief warned that the coronavirus pandemic is adding one more layer of misery upon many others. Caling for funding, he told members that the choice was between supporting the humanitarian response in Yemen and help to create the space for a sustainable political situation, or watch Yemen fall off the cliff.
Late last week, a group of researchers posted a letter that they had sent to the Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) requesting the retraction of a study published the week before that purportedly showed mask use was the most effective intervention in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.
Though PNAS editors have yet to respond to the request, scientists have roundly criticized the study's methodology, and the entire kerfuffle has highlighted the difficulty of "doing science" amid a full-blown pandemic.
The paper in question, "Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19" states, "After April 3, the only difference in the regulatory measures between NYC and the United States lies in face covering on April 17 in NYC."
The group of scientists, many from Stanford and Johns Hopkins universities, took umbrage with that conclusion and said it is verifiably false on several accounts: Other parts of the country had mandated mask use, and different parts of the United States had different degrees of "lockdown."
"While masks are almost certainly an effective public health measure for preventing and slowing the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the claims presented in this study are dangerously misleading and lack any basis in evidence," they wrote in a letter to the PNAS editorial board, requesting retraction. "Unfortunately, since its publication on June 11th, this article has been distributed and shared widely in traditional and social media, where its claims are being interpreted as rigorous science."
Noah Haber, ScD, a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University, said he has heard from PNAS editors that they have received the letter. Haber was the first co-signer of the letter requesting retraction.
"The policy implications of this paper is immediate, so we hope response is commensurate with the decisions that need to be made," he told CIDRAP News.
Haber said he and his colleagues are not arguing the usefulness of masks, but instead pointing out that the study in question could not evaluate how effective masking policies are relative to other policies.
"There are an enormous number of severe errors with the paper," Haber said. "Unfortunately, this is not a new problem in science, but the stakes are much higher than before."
Haber said the paper also highlights the problems of doing science in the midst of a pandemic caused by a novel virus: An enormous, unprecedented volume of studies have been published on COVID-19. But unfortunately, many don't hold up and are methodologically flawed.
"Under normal circumstances, years-long debate would filter wheat from the chaff, but everything is happening so immediately now," he said.
David Kriebel, ScD, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, has followed the controversy. While he agrees that the PNAS study is flawed, he does not agree with a retraction at this time. The paper wasn't a failure of the peer review process, he said, but rather a failure of understanding the limits of science during a pandemic.
"The kind of science we are talking aboutand the public has become so remarkably informed aboutis applied science being used to inform decision-making on a mass scale," Kriebel said. "That kind of science is really quite different in important ways from the work of geologists, chemists, or astronomers. It has an urgency; it has to be translated to millions of people, and quickly."
Kriebel said that usually science is self-correcting, given enough time. But currently there is not enough time for science to self-correct when it's being used to craft public health policy. He said that's a problem for policy makers over-relying on "capital S" science to justify decisions.
"It's actually not helpful for scientists to hide behind a curtain of certainty. There is uncertainty about masks. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be wearing them," Kriebel said. Instead of clamoring for scientific studies to back up mandates on mask use, Kriebel argues for more transparency in public health messaging.
"I would say, 'Mask use is our best judgment right now, and we will tell you if we get more evidence," he said.
Both Kriebel and Haber agree that masks probably do offer a level of protection, but right now there is no way to tease out how much protection masks offer versus physical distancing of 6 feet or more, or hand washing.
"The world is much messier than we would like to admit," said Kreibel. "We do our best and admit our uncertainty."
Covid-19 is similar in important ways to the diseases caused by other recent coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS. Like Covid-19, SARS and MERS exhibited male-female differences in fatalities. As with Covid-19, this difference was initially claimed as a sex difference. But careful analysis showed that gendered behaviors, pre-existing conditions, and gender-segregated occupational exposures explained these sex differences. All signs point to Covid-19 following a comparable pattern.
SARS emerged in early 2003 and quickly reached pandemic levels. Men overall indeed died at a higher rate than women. But a closer inspection of the data soon showed that sex differences varied considerably by age group. At older ages, there was no significant difference between the female and male fatality rates, but younger men died at markedly higher rates than younger women. For instance, in Hong Kong, only 5.9 percent of women ages 35 to 44 died, compared with 15.3 percent of men. Between the ages of 35 and 64, men who developed SARS were 10 percent more likely to die than women.
Taking a cue from these patterns, researchers ran analyses accounting for age, occupation and pre-existing conditions. The results showed that after accounting for these factors, women and men actually had similar fatality rates for SARS for all age groups. The lower fatality rate among women was driven by particularly high infection rates among health care workers, who were predominantly young, healthy and female. So women were both disproportionately likely to be infected and disproportionately likely to survive, compared with men in that age group. Among older women and men, and those with comorbidities such as heart disease, cancer, asthma and liver disease, there was little difference in SARS outcomes. The apparent sex difference was caused by gender-related occupational differences and diseases with complex, often socially rooted causes.
MERS offers an even more clear-cut example. The disease overwhelmingly affected, and continues to affect, older men. Primary transmission from camels remains a key source of infections, and camel handling and slaughtering are predominantly male occupations in Saudi Arabia. As with SARS, a comprehensive study published in 2017 found that fatalities did not differ by sex after accounting for age and pre-existing health status. The sex difference here, in other words, is produced by who is getting infected, not who dies once theyre infected.
A key factor most likely related to male-female differences in Covid-19 fatalities is that men overall are in a poorer state of health than women. In a study examining sex differences in outcomes among Covid-19 patients in China, men were more likely than women to have any comorbidity or two or more of them. Of people with Covid-19 and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 83.3 percent were male. Of people with diabetes and cardiovascular disease, 58.9 percent and 62.1 percent, respectively, were male. To be sure, sex-linked biology may play a role in the development of some chronic diseases, but always in complex interaction with class, race or ethnicity, and gender-related variables. Several analyses have already demonstrated that in places where men have higher Covid-19 fatality rates than women, men also, on average, have far higher rates of behaviors such as smoking and comorbidities related to smoking, such as heart disease.
Good morning. The number of known US cases of coronavirus is nearing 2.4 million, but the Centers for Disease Control has estimated 10 times that number have caught the disease. The US is among 10 countries where cases have risen since lockdown measures were relaxed, with infections surging in its three most populous states:
In an exclusive interview, Ed Pilkington spoke to the progressive Democratic congresswoman Rashida Tlaib about her efforts to free vulnerable inmates from a prison system where the virus is rife: Close to a million people right now are incarcerated who are legally innocent, waiting for trial because they cant afford bail when the courts are closed because of the pandemic, Tlaib said. Its crazy.
Meanwhile, the EU is considering blocking American travellers when it reopens its borders at the beginning of July. The US has become a pariah nation of super-spreaders, writes Francine Prose:
America has done such a poor job of controlling the Covid-19 outbreak that our infection rate is increasing dramatically while that of most European nations is either remaining stable or decreasing. Were simply too dangerous too likely to bring the deadly virus along with the more welcome (and needed) tourist dollars.
Unlike most EU countries, Sweden did not impose tough lockdown rules on its citizens in response to the pandemic, instead relying on their innate sense of civic responsibility to slow the spread of Covid-19. Now, with the countrys relative death toll far outstripping its near neighbours, polling has shown that Swedes are rapidly losing faith in their governments handling of the crisis. It is a dent to the nations morally superior self-image, writes Erik Augustin Palm:
Covid-19 has toppled Swedish exceptionalism. How are we so open-minded with such limited room for divergence? How are we so rational when our Covid-19 strategy is an outlier compared to that of countries with more successful responses based on the same data?
The governor of Colorado has appointed a special prosecutor to investigate the killing of a 23-year-old black man who died in police custody in 2019, amid the national reckoning over racism and police brutality. Elijah McClain died of cardiac arrest shortly after he was put in a neck-hold by a police officer, and given a dose of a sedative by a paramedic, in suburban Colorado last August.
After three months away from the pitch amid the coronavirus lockdown, Liverpool FC at last won the English league title on Thursday night after their closest rivals, Manchester City, were beaten 2-1 at Chelsea. It is the historic clubs 19th championship victory, but their first of the Premier League era and their first since the Merseyside side dominated the league during the 1980s.
The teams coach, Jrgen Klopp, said it was an incredible moment for his team. Barney Ronay pays tribute to the footballing machine Klopp built, which is still operating at the peak of its power. Make no mistake, Ronay writes, this was an annihilation.
Nascar has released an image of the noose found in Bubba Wallaces garage at a racetrack in Alabama. The FBI found that the garage door pull had been in place since last year and so was not a threat directed at Wallace, who is black, but as Nascar notes: the image makes clear that the noose was real.
Donald Trumps brother failed to block his nieces book. A New York judge told Robert Trump several improprieties in the lawsuit he filed to block Mary Trumps family memoir made his attempt to prevent its publication fatally defective.
More than 100 people have been killed by lightning strikes in India at the start of the annual monsoon season. At least 83 died in Bihar state, one of the regions highest daily tolls in recent years.
A New Zealand supermarket chain will use the word period to label menstrual products previously given euphemistic names such as sanitary or feminine hygiene, claiming it is the first retailer in the world to do so.
Why the election is a matter of life and death for immigrants
Marielena Hincapi, the chief of one of the USs most high-profile immigrant advocacy groups, tells Amanda Holpuch defeating Trump in 2020 is an existential issue for immigrants: We have been experiencing war, nothing short of what feels like an all-out war by the Trump administration, frankly, since he started running for office.
The secretive agency planting cyanide bombs across the US
In 2017, a teenage boy playing near his Idaho home came across a strange device that sprayed him with cyanide, killing his dog and leaving him with lasting health issues. The device, known as an M-44, had been planted by an obscure government agency, Wildlife Services, and was intended to kill predators. Jimmy Tobias reports.
Opinion: The FBI is still targeting black civil rights leaders
The FBI has always viewed black activism as a threat to national security, monitoring Black Lives Matter leaders much as it did Martin Luther King. Its time would be better spent holding accountable the police officers whose brutality fuelled the movement, says Mike German.
In 2018 and 2019, the FBI conducted nationwide assessments of Black identity extremists under an intelligence collection operation it called Iron Fist, prioritizing these cases over investigations of far more prevalent violence from white supremacists and far right militants.
If you thought the coronavirus was messing with your plans, spare a thought for the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, who has postponed her wedding to her cinematographer fiance Bo Tengberg for a third time, because it clashes with a European Council meeting.
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Jessica Brewer, LMH Health
The Fourth of July is upon us and with that comes fireworks, crowds and injuries, oh my! There is no doubt that this 4thmay look a bit different from previous years. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused many counties and cities to cancel their fireworks displays to keep large crowds from gathering in one place. Though some shows are still on, it is important to be very careful when it comes to social distancing.
Allison Koonce, LMH Health community outreach and engagement supervisor, said that when it comes to fireworks, they are dangerous for both kids and adults when not handled properly.
In 2018, there were 207 reported firework related injuries in Kansas, Koonce said. Nearly half involved children under the age of 18. We typically see firework related injuries reported mostly to the hands, eyes, face and head.
It is very important to not let little hands handle fireworks and yes, even sparklers. For those who are too young, Koonce recommends that parents and guardians provide their little ones with glow sticks, a much safer yet still very fun alternative.
Did you know that sparklers burn at a temperature hot enough to melt glass? Koonce said. Even what may seem like the most harmless of fireworks still burn very hot.
COVID-19 has altered many plans from travel, to family gatherings and of course, firework shows. Many local shows have been cancelled to avoid large group gatherings, but search your area to see if there is an alternative.
Some cities are continuing with their fireworks shows, but are encouraging community members to watch from their homes or online where its being streamed, Koonce said. Look to see if there are virtual shows located near you. You should also look to see what your local and state fireworks laws are. Since shows have been cancelled and at home fireworks are on the rise, it is important to stay extra safe and to know the laws.
Dr. Jennifer Schrimsher, an infectious diseasesphysician with LMH Health, shared her own concerns on the potential for mass gatherings around the holiday. As guidelines continue to relax, our efforts to keep ourselves, our families and the community safe should not.
Regardless of where were at in our county or states reopening, my recommendations arent going to change much, Dr. Schrimsher said. The basic tenets are the same: keep your distance, wear a mask, continue frequent hand hygiene and stay home if youre sick. People should still avoid large gatherings and non-essential trips and visits. Everything we do should be viewed through this lens. These simple rules will remain important in keeping ourselves, our families and our community as safe as possible.
Not only should Douglas County residents be mindful of traveling, but any residents who have family members traveling in should be aware as well.
In addition to my regular firework concerns, I am concerned about the great potential for large gatherings and travel, she said. Im hopeful that people are mindful of where theyre traveling as well as their out of town visitors. If your visitors are from a hot spot, they need to quarantine here and avoid contact with others. If you travel to a hot spot, you should quarantine at home for 14 days when you return.
Dr. Schrimsher said with the stay-at-home orders, she could see how much people care about the well-being of our community. Her hope is that we can carry the same safe practices like hand hygiene, face covering and social distancing - into our day-to-day lives as we return to our new normal.
The virus hasnt left. Its quite the opposite actually, Dr. Schrimsher said. Were finding most people that are currently testing positive dont have any symptoms and are going about life normally. If these people are wearing masks, especially in public places or around others, the virus is more likely to get trapped in their mask, preventing spread.
Masks are a critical part of keeping our community healthy, I cant emphasize this enough! I encourage you to mask up, educate your friends and family and set a positive example for those around you Lets make masks the new norm together.
July 4thwill still be an exciting time in 2020 - it just may look different. Dr. Schrimsher empathizes with community members wanting to feel normal again. Many of us have the itch to get back to work, fully enjoy summer and times with friends. We can still enjoy these activities, but as Dr. Schrimsher says, we have to do it responsibly.
COVID is still here and it isnt going away any time soon, she said. In fact, were seeing a sharper rise in cases now than we have since the beginning. We need people to remain vigilant. We need people to remain diligent. Mask up. Keep your distance. And as always, wash those hands!
Jessica Brewer is the social media and digital communications specialist at LMH Health.
Lauren Mitchell, Austin American-Statesman Published 6:00 a.m. ET June 26, 2020 | Updated 8:05 a.m. ET June 26, 2020
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is pausing the state's aggressive reopening as it deals with a surge in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations. The number of patients admitted with COVID-19 has more than doubled in just two weeks. (June 25) AP Domestic
AUSTIN Eighteen members of a North Texas family tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a surprise birthday party in late May.
Only one member of the family unknowingly had the virus at the time of the party,WFAA reports.
We knew this was going to happen. I mean this whole time this has been going on weve been terrified, Ron Barbosa told WFAA.
Barbosa, who is a volunteer EMT, and his wife, a doctor, chose not to attend the party, which was hosted by his nephew, due to safety reasons. Barbosa said that his family suspects his nephew, who had a slight cough at the time of the party, was the family member who was unknowingly infected after possibly being exposed at work.
Those infected include two young children, Barbosas elderly parents and his sister, who is battling breast cancer.
Barbosas father, Frank, was admitted to the hospital on June 17 and placed in the intensive care unit soon after, where he remains.
Barbosa told WFAA that his father is in need of blood plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients, who have established antibodies. If youve recovered go donate your plasma, Barbosa .
While it appears that most of Barbosas family is on the road to recovery,the experience serves as a warning for what could happen even when proper safety precautions are attempted. Barbosa says all 25 people who attended the party attempted to remain socially distant, and not all of the attendees were there for the entirety of the party.
However, in reference to a photo taken at the party,he also told BuzzFeed, My message is that if youre going to see family and they dont live with you, mask up and keep your distance. I want everyone to be with their loved ones. I just want everybody to be cautious and not try to take pictures and selfies with a group of 20 people.
In Texas the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, with 5,996 new cases reported Thursday, following two days of record highs. The state also broke its record for hospitalizations for the 14th day in a row Thursday, with state health officials reporting 4,738 patients in Texas hospitals.
Follow Lauren Mitchell on Twitter: @renlaux
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Restaurants and retailers have applauded recent changes in the governments $670 billion small business rescue program that make it easier for companies battling the Covid-19 pandemic to qualify for loan forgiveness. But the increased flexibility has come late for scores of small businesses that followed the Paycheck Protection Programs original rulesand quickly used up most or all of their money.
Rising numbers of Covid-19 cases in Florida, Texas and other Sunbelt states have disrupted many reopening plans. The governor...
The U.S. jobs market started recovering relatively soon after tanking in the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, but only modestly, according to two papers to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on June 25.
Some businesses shuttered in March and April are resuming operations, but often with fewer employees than before the pandemic, according to the papers.
One paperThe U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession also found that employers are cutting the wages of about 11 percent of workers (about twice as many as during the 2007-2009 recession) and skipping scheduled pay increases for others. It analyzed weekly payroll data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Inc., covering about 26 million workers.
Its authors are Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz of the Federal Reserve Board; Erik Hurst and John Grigsby of the University of Chicago; and Ahu Yildirmaz of ADP.
Their payroll data show that job losses were concentrated among low-wage workers: 37 percent of workers in the bottom fifth of the wage distribution lost their jobs through late April, compared with 9 percent of workers in the top fifth, and 21 percent of employees overall. The rebound has been modest so far. By late May, employment overall was still 15 percent below pre-pandemic levels and, for low-wage workers, 30 percent.
Women experienced sharper employment declines than menabout 4 percentage points more through late Apriland very little of the decline is because women work disproportionately in businessesrestaurants and retailersthat have been hard hit by the pandemic, according to the paper. The gap widened slightly through May even as some businesses recalled workers, it said.
We speculate it could be that the availability of childcare is driving the pattern, Hurst said in an interview with The Brookings Institution.
The ADP data also suggests that roughly one-third of the employment rebound in May can be attributed to the reopening of temporarily shuttered business, especially businesses with fewer than 50 employees. (Many other businesses continued operating through the pandemic but reduced employment.) For the most part, reopening firms are recalling original employees rather than hiring new ones. Thats a positive trend, Hurst said, because long spells of unemployment, by eroding workers skills and attachment to the workforce, can have long-lasting effects.
However, he warned, that at least so far, when firms are coming back, they are coming back at a fraction of their original sizeabout 40 percent of employment relative to February.
A second paperMeasuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis also found that reopening businesses are primarily recalling former employees rather than hiring new onesbut only some of them. It found that older workers, Black and Asian workers, and unmarried workers have been less likely to start work again.
Its authorsAlexander W. Bartik of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Marianne Bertrand and Feng Lin of the University of Chicago; and Jesse Rothstein and Matthew Unrath of the University of California at Berkeleyexamined monthly government labor market reports as well as daily timeclock data on roughly 500,000 workers from Homebase, a firm that provides scheduling software to small businesses, including restaurants, retailers, and personal service providers. They also looked at surveys of employees at firms using Homebase.
The authors found that the pandemic recession has been very different from recent recessions, such as the 2007-2009 recession. In this one, economic activity collapsed and bottomed out in a few weeks, compared with months or years. The downturn was driven by service businesses such as restaurants and retailers rather than the typically more cyclical manufacturing and construction industries. Also, many more laid-off workers in this recession were expecting to get their jobs back, at least initially.
Like the first paper, the second paper found that job losses in the pandemic recession were concentrated among low-wage workers and that women experienced sharper employment declines than men. It also found that workers 65 and older and younger than 25 were more likely to lose work in April than workers in the 25-to-34 age group. It said workers without a high school degree were 10 percentage points more likely to have stopped working than otherwise similar employees with college degrees. Black workers were 4.6 percent more likely than similar white workers to lose work; Asian workers 5.2 percent more likely; and Hispanic workers, 1.6 percent more likely.
These inequities in the distribution of job loss were for the most part not offset by rehiring in May, the authors write. They found, in particular, that older workers, Black and Asian workers, and unmarried workers were more likely to lose their jobs in April and, having done so, less likely to start work again in May.
They also looked at the job market effects of two policy responses to the pandemica temporary $600-a-week supplement to unemployment benefits (which vary by state) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which offered small business loans that are forgivable if recipients meet employee-retention requirements. They found that states that received more PPP loans and states with more generous unemployment insurance benefits had milder declines and faster recoveries. And they found no evidence to support the view that the temporary $600 supplement, which meant many workers received benefits higher than their wages, drove job losses or slowed rehiring substantially.
David Skidmore authored the summary language for this paper. Becca Portman assisted with data visualization.
Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand,Feng Ling,Jesse Rothstein, and MatthewUnrath. 2020. Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis. BPEA Conference Draft, Summer.
Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A Decker, John Grigsby, AdrianHamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, ChristopherKurz, and AhuYildirmaz. 2020. TheU.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession. BPEA Conference Draft, Summer.
Cajner, et al.:
The authors and discussant did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this paper or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this paper. They are currently not officers, directors, or board members of any organization with an interest in this paper. Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) reviewed the paper to ensure privacy protection of its clients and to ensure it did not contain proprietary information. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of ADP, the Federal Reserve Board, or the University of Chicago.
Bartik, et al.:
The authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this paper or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this paper. The authors utilized data provided by Homebase, which was made available to a large number of academics and has not been restricted in its use in any way. They are currently not officers, directors, or board members of any organization with an interest in this paper. No outside party had the right to review this paper before circulation. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the University of California, Berkeley, the University of Chicago, or the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
