It comes as no surprise to its ardent followers that the Ultimate Fighting Championship, known as U.F.C., will be the first organization to stage a major professional sports event in the United States since the spread of Covid-19 induced a monthslong live sports hiatus. Its brash president, Dana White, never wanted to cease operations in the first place.
I wanted to keep right on going; well figure this thing out, Mr. White told Sports Illustrated. If this thing is that deadly, its gonna get us no matter where we hide or what we do.
In April, through U.F.C., Mr. White rented a private island where he is planning to put on fights by late June, involving international mixed martial arts fighters who may have difficulty securing visas. The territory which Mr. White has crowned Fight Island could stage bouts for the duration of the pandemic, or perhaps beyond, he says.
The mixed martial arts, or MMA, fighters he oversees who are of various cultural and political leanings have a similar attitude. And so, the athletes will be back in action even sooner: Theres a fight Saturday night. Not on Fight Island, where the venue is still under construction, but in Florida at the Jacksonville Arena, where lightweights Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje will square off in the headline bout. Neither man seems concerned. I hope he breaks my nose, Ive been waiting to get it fixed. Mr. Gaethje said tauntingly. Maybe hell plant an elbow on there.
The road to this return, which will be without fans in the stands, was rocky. The first attempt resulted in a false start, as a planned April 18 card on Native American tribal land in California was scuttled amid objections from top state officials and television partners. But the efforts never stalled, nor did they lack for outlandish ingenuity.
While most in official quarters have excoriated these moves, many grass-roots sports fans on Twitter, Reddit, Instagram and other forums have cheered on the U.F.C.s gung-ho determination to fight on in the face of a tsk-tsk from the powers that be. That scorn for politesse, the embrace of gritty, defiant independence and the nihilism toward the consequences are all a microcosm of what makes the combat sport excite so many people.
Its what took U.F.C. from a ragtag competition held in tents in the 1990s (a sport that the late Senator John McCain once famously dismissed as human cockfighting) to the signature franchise for mixed martial arts, airing on ESPN in prime-time cable ever since the network agreed to a $1.5 billion megadeal to gain its television rights.
There are, of course, countless people who would be happy to watch any live sport right now. Still, the U.F.C. has a unique and enduring appeal to a coarsened America that was there before this pandemic and that will thrive in its aftermath.
Back in November, when Covid-19 was on the verge of spreading in China, President Trump, flanked by two of his sons, Eric and Donald Jr., entered the arena at Madison Square Garden, prompting a raucous reaction from the crowd. Watching the viral videos of it, posted right away from the smartphones in attendance, you could have understandably mistaken the scene for one of the presidents own clamorous political rallies, but for the low hum of boos mixed in with the ecstatic cheers and gravelly rock music. Not everyone was a fan.
Mr. Trump was, instead, in the role of star guest as he attended a big U.F.C. event. It was a remarkable sight, given that competitions of mixed martial arts were not even legal in New York until 2016.
For the wide group of people on the outside looking in at this cultural phenomenon with furrowed brows, the question of its specific appeal beyond the age-old attraction humans have to combat is common. Five action-packed minutes this past August, before a prime time face-off between Anthony Pettis and the welterweight superstar Nate Diaz (on his hyped return from a three-year hiatus) may provide something like an answer.
Hours before that top card fight, nearly every seat was filled to watch little-known lightweights Khana Worthy and Devonte Smith battle. Both men in the octagon immediately began parrying each others blows, prepared to defend against a combo of Brazilian jiu-jitsu and American wrestling moves, or of karate kicks and boxer-like jabs (or maybe just an improvised knee to the face.)
Just four minutes into the first round, Mr. Worthy landed a punishing left hook beneath Mr. Smiths right ear, who crashed, back-first, onto the canvas. The crowd exploded 17,000-odd people giving a big schoolyard Ooo! at the same time. Mr. Worthy charged at his wounded opponent, who was still on the deck and landed several more punches. Mr. Smith curled up. The referee rushed in to stop the fight and Mr. Worthy, a massive 6-1 underdog according to the gambling bookies, climbed atop the octagon, threw himself over it and toward the rapt crowd in celebration.
It all happened in roughly 10 seconds. An instant jolt and turn of events few other sports can rival. The knockout took place at 9:42 p.m. By 9:43 the U.F.C.s official account had posted a clip to Twitter: WORTHY PULLS OFF THE HUGE UPSET! Other trending posts quickly went up from fans and sponsors as well as peers of the fighters, who often have as many millions of followers as professional football players.
I began following M.M.A. out of professional necessity. I was a boxing writer by trade until editors at outlets, including The Times, began inquiring a few years ago about my interest in covering U.F.C. as it ascended into mainstream acceptability.
Dr. Bhrett McCabe, a sports psychologist, who has worked with mixed martial artists, explained to me the vicarious rush that people of all stripes feel watching U.F.C. matches by recalling one of the first times he took his young teenage daughter, who was not already a hard-core fan, to a fight.
We were three rows back from the cage, and you could hear the fists hitting the chest, and the air leaving the lungs, Dr. McCabe said. And youre sitting there, and its this moment between I dont want to see a broken leg, but I also want to see a victory. Its this weird psychological moment. I look over at my daughter shes 14 at the time and shes over there yelling and screaming.
For fans, theres this idea of there being just enough distance between them and the fighters to provide a guilt-free viewing experience. We watch them through a cage. But theyre also packaged by the franchise on television as well as by themselves on social media as Tekken-esque arcade game characters. The audience gets close, but not too close, to the blood.
Despite the vague conventional wisdom that those who watch U.F.C. are mostly working-class MAGA guys, a fairly diverse group of young men make up the majority of the actual fan base.
You go to a U.F.C. event, you see men, you see women, you see children, said Dr. Jennifer McClearen, a feminism and media scholar at the University of Texas Austin, whose book on women in U.F.C. will debut in spring 2021. You see people who are doctors, and lawyers, and construction workers.
Its a shift that was years in the making. When the Ultimate Fightng Championship was getting its start in the 1990s, it wasnt inaccurate to describe some of its fights as glorified cage matches. There were always rules, Joe Silva, a U.F.C. technical adviser from 1994 to 2000, said in a U.F.C. documentary released this summer. Obviously, in the beginning, there was a lot less.
As active bans on mixed martial arts fighting spread from state to state, some fights were forced to be held in tents. Dana White took over as president of the U.F.C. in the early 2000s under new ownership who understood, as Mr. White put it in the same documentary, that you cant beat the government. You have to work with them and run toward regulation and try to figure out how to make it safer, in order to turn it into a real sport.
The New Jersey Athletic Commission approved the competition soon after renegotiations and U.F.C. 30 (the 30th match in the promotions series) was held on Feb. 23, 2001, at the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. Dana White still credits that tentpole event which Mr. Trump facilitated as the first domino that led a slew of states to accede to popular demand and legalize regulated mixed martial arts competition over the past two decades.
Im never going to say anything bad about Donald Trump, ever, Mr. White told Fox News last year. That guy gave us our start when nobody would talk to us.
M.M.A. is gory, without question. But clinical research is showing the dangers of M.M.A. arent quite as pronounced as once feared, specifically in relation to boxing. A groundbreaking study first published in 2015 by researchers at the Sather Sports Medicine Clinic at the University of Alberta which examined 1,181 mixed martial artists and 550 boxers over the course of a decade found that boxers are far more susceptible to major harm from concussions and other head trauma and more likely to experience loss of consciousness than M.M.A. fighters, who are instead at greater risk of more minor injuries.
Most of the blood you see in mixed martial arts is from bloody noses or facial cuts, the lead author Dr. Shelby Karpman explained. It doesnt tend to be as severe, but looks a lot worse than it actually is.
In addition to its tactful rule changes, the U.F.C.s reputation of being raw, unlike boxing, and real, unlike W.W.E.-style entertainment wrestling, has allowed it to take full advantage of its openings and competitors vulnerabilities like any good fighter.
For a generation, as premium cable and pay per view became boxings main broadcasters, its popular exposure decreased: A rare canonical fight, between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, in 2015 had a pay per view price tag just shy of $100. Big-name boxers have also shied away from even fights, to preserve their precious undefeated records, whereas there is a widespread duel mentality in M.M.A that publicly shames fighters on top whom repeatedly decline challenges.
The embodiment of this mentality may be Conor McGregor, U.F.C.s most controversial and bankable star, who went as far as fighting boxier Floyd Mayweather in 2017 under strict boxing rules. Mr. McGregor lost that $100 million dollar fight, but his boldness and scintillating style only brought him and U.F.C. more fans. Those fans were out in full force on Jan. 18 in Las Vegas, when Mr. McGregor made a victorious return to the octagon for a prime time bout with Donald Cowboy Cerrone, whom he knocked out in just 40 seconds.
Within hours of the TKO, Mr. Mayweather and several M. M. A fighters issued fresh challenges to Mr. Mcgregor his response? Every one of these little mouth fools can get it!
Not too long ago, the W.W.E. quenched the thirst of those who wanted to watch combat, unleashed from boxings formalities including President Trump, who has starred in some of its story lines. But Mr. Trumps embrace of U.F.C. over both W.W.E. and boxing, which he also patronized, is a signal of whos on top.
Its popularity also appears tied to the very things that made Donald Trump, a bombastic real estate guy who hosted fights, presidential material. The internet has made us all skeptical cynics. And American society coarsened as the economy for working people stagnated. Cheering along to a scripted, predestined contest like W.W.E. might have started to make too many people feel like suckers.
In an era defined by trolling, economic insecurity, social isolation, shortened attention spans and memes like LOL, nothing matters, the U.F.C. has come to the fore, giving its fans the ability to feel and see something real if only for 10 seconds, one knockout at a time.
Joe DePaolo (@joe_depaolo) is a sports journalist and senior editor at Mediaite. His biography of the late boxing champion Arturo Gatti is forthcoming.
Boris Johnson has announced a five-tier alert system to rank the threat from coronavirus although experts said it was not immediately clear how independent or effective the scheme would be.
The current threat level of the pandemic will be categorised on a scale of one to five in different parts of the country, based on assessments by a new joint biosecurity centre.
The system is designed to mirror the independent terror alert system, which ranks the threat to the public from low to critical and helps decide what protective measures are required.
The prime minister said in his broadcast to the nation that the alert system would help the country avoid going back to square one. Alert levels, he added, would be determined by the number of cases and the R number, or transmission rate, of the virus.
R, or the 'effective reproduction number', is a way of rating a diseases ability to spread. Its the average number of people on to whom one infected person will pass the virus. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially. Anything below 1 and an outbreak will fizzle out eventually.
At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the estimated R for coronavirus was between 2 and 3 higher than the value for seasonal flu, but lower than for measles. That means each person would pass it on to between two and three people on average, before either recovering or dying, and each of those people would pass it on to a further two to three others, causing the total number of cases to snowball over time.
The reproduction number is not fixed, though. It depends on the biology of the virus; people's behaviour, such as social distancing;and a populations immunity.
Hannah DevlinScience correspondent
In turn, that Covid alert level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures. The lower the level, the fewer the measures. The higher the level, the tougher and stricter we will have to be, Johnson said.
Terror threat levels are agreed by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, which is independent of ministers but includes representatives of 16 government departments plus police and intelligence agencies.
Further details are expected to be announced when the full lockdown easing plan is presented in detail to parliament on Monday.
No detailed information has yet been released on the specific criteria for setting a level of alert.
A former senior Whitehall security source said the existing terror threat level system was useful because it helped set a reference point to shape behaviour across Britains wider national security system.
They questioned, however, whether a biosecurity centre would be able to make its assessments independently. Technocratic measures are being politicised, and blamestorming and political manoeuvring seem to be the order of the day at the moment, they said.
Johnson said the UK was currently under the second highest level of threat, but the situation was improving. Over the period of the lockdown, we have been in level four, and thanks to your sacrifice we are now in a position to begin to move in steps to level three.
The new system will apply only to England at first. Scotland has led criticism from the three devolved administrations of Downing Streets decision to drop the stay at home slogan in favour of stay alert. No 10, however, said it would seek to work with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to create an integrated approach across the UK.
New Zealand adopted a four-tier coronavirus alert system in late March, in the early stages of the outbreak, so that people can see and plan for the kinds of restrictions we may be required to put in place, according to its government.
Its guidelines cover how people are expected to behave at each level, how the healthcare system should be set up, and what public facilities and businesses are allowed to remain open.
New Zealand, which has suffered relatively mildly from coronavirus compared with the UK and others in Europe, is poised to decide on Monday whether to reduce the threat level from three to two. Any decision has to be signed off by the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, and her cabinet.
Hi, Poonam. Hi. Nice to meet you. My contractions are about 15 minutes apart. And Im about to get pulled into an O.R. at Cornell to have a C-section. Like any minute now, theyre going to come pull me through that door. And Im gloved-up and masked-up. And my husbands all suited-up. Hes literally in a hazmat suit. Doctor: Dad, do you want to grab those shoes and throw them? Theyre pulling me in. I have to go. Thank you. My name is Poonam Sharma Mathis. My husband is Kris Mathis. We have a 4-year-old, Pierce Mathis. I need some Monday motivation, Pierce. My first birth was pretty uneventful. The baby came out, we made eye contact and then I closed my eyes, and I woke up in the recovery room. Everybody was kissing him and hugging him. And I felt like the community and the village that hes so blessed to be a part of was there. I grew up with a lot of extended family and a lot of love. Wed been wanting a girl in this generation so badly. So when we found out we were having a girl, we were just grateful. I was 37 weeks pregnant when they started to issue stay-at-home orders. OK, so I am officially scared. Im having contractions this morning. I am not a hypochondriac. Im not somebody whos really prone to general mass hysteria. But we are Im breathless. We are dealing with something we dont understand. Kris: Only a couple of days prior to our birth, they had been saying no partners, no spouses. I was probably one of the first spouses that was allowed into the hospital. I was walking, and it was like, do not touch anything. Make sure your mask is on. Put the booties over your shoes. My husband could catch it right now. Right? He could bring it home, and give it to my son whos 4 and a half. And theres a thought about going home with my daughter, and then just immediately quarantining myself and my daughter. Doctor: All right, Mom, are you ready? Do you want to open your eyes for me? No? Her name is Asha: 7 pounds, 11 ounces. They put her skin on my chest. But I had a mask on, so I wasnt breathing on her. Daddy is cuddling with her. Its weird. She opened her eyes right when she was born really wide. And then I havent seen her eyes since. She didnt like what she saw or something. Our expectations were that I probably wasnt going to be there anyway. So just being there for the delivery and seeing the baby, meeting the baby, it was a really exciting thing for me. You realize you have to do a father-daughter dance, and give her away one day? But then immediately after the birth, I had to say goodbye. Say, good night. Sweet dreams. Its 11:30 at night. Im in my room. I just breastfed. [Asha crying] I wore a mask, and I threw up. The only good news is they let her stay in my room because babies are not being kept in the nursery right now. Theyre being kept with the mom. The next step is that we are waiting for news of my coronavirus status. Based on that result, theyll decide how much interaction Ill be having with her, for her own safety. So now we wait. I just want to kiss her. It was really exciting to find out that we tested negative, because that meant I could kiss her head. But its definitely different delivering and recovering in a hospital during coronavirus, and it hit me yesterday. Yesterday was the worst day of physical pain in my life. I genuinely thought I might die. This is one of the most intense surgeries you can have, is a C-section. But if you have any air bubbles that go into your stomach when they cut you open, which is normal, those air bubbles dont come out right away. Then they float around your body, I guess, and they feel like knives stabbing you from the inside until they come out. And they dont want to come out. It is so traumatic being here without somebody to advocate for you when things go wrong, because theres too much going on. They are overwhelmed. Im pushing the call button to get care, and they dont come right away. And last time I gave birth here, four and a half years ago, they did everything right away because they were able to. I was in so much pain for so long, and waiting for my medication for so long, that I was throwing up. I threw up eight times from pain. It feels like I was in a horror movie where they chopped somebody up, but then the person escapes and is running to safety. And thats a ridiculous thing to say. We have the best health care. Were in the best city. But thats how it feels. I just want to get her home as soon as possible. And hopefully then Im able to walk and stand, and do something to help my husband take care of these kids. Thursday at around 1:30, my husband and son came and picked us up. She was so excited to meet you she didnt know what to do. Asha. I havent left the upstairs from Thursday till now. Its Monday morning. Theres so much family thats just waiting, itching to rush in and be with us. And who knows if that will happen before shes 3 months old. One toe is kind of curving. Yeah. Will she wrap her finger around your finger if you put it in there? Poonam: Shes like a little animal, huh? Youre going to be such a good big brother. Poonam: Mm-hmm. Im just grateful that shes healthy. Im grateful that so far, my husband and myself and my son are healthy. I look at her eyes, and I do believe that the eyes show something even from birth. Whenever she does open her eyes, she just looks and shes just laser-focused. And its not a curious focus. Its like like she knows she needs to be calm right now or something. I had a great aunt who always said that if she could come back, shed come back as my daughter. So maybe thats her, I hope. If so, nothings going to keep her down.
Doctors and police reacted to the governments new stay alert slogan and Boris Johnsons lockdown-easing measures with warnings of growing non-compliance and the impossibility of policing.
The Police Federation, representing 120,000 rank-and-file officers, attacked a week of mixed messages from ministers, fuelled by media speculation, while medical experts said they increasingly expected to see a second rise in infections.
New guidance is hurriedly being drawn up for officers around the country about the new rules set out by the prime minister, and what they should and should not police.
John Apter, national chair of the Police Federation of England and Wales, said: Police officers will continue to do their best, but their work must be based on crystal clear guidance, not loose rules that are left open to interpretation because that will be grossly unfair on officers whose job is already challenging. If the message of what is expected of the public is not clear then it will make the job of policing this legislation almost impossible.
Prof Dame Til Wykes, of the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience at Kings College London, said the new communication strategy would hinder progress against the coronavirus.
She said: The communication plan of stay alert, control the virus and save lives unlike the first step in the plan is very confused. We need clear rules and messages that are concise, clear and accurate. This is just short.
A woolly message will hinder not promote the next phase of this lockdown. The previous message to stay home was at least clear. What does stay alert mean? It will just be confusing, be open to misinterpretation and likely to increase risky behaviour. That means taking risks that will affect everyone and increase infections.
Dr Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at Southampton University, said: For these revisions [to government strategy] to be successful, we need consistent communications from the government, and the new stay alert messaging is ambiguous and lacks clarity.
Prof Sir Simon Wessely, former president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists, said the problem with stay alert was that its hard to be clear what that means, as opposed to stay inside.
Having seen photos and video showing a lack of physical distancing at VE Day street parties on Friday including a conga line and in parks over the weekend, intensive care doctors shared concerns on social media that more people would end up in hospital with coronavirus.
Dr David Hepburn, an intensive care consultant in Wales, tweeted: Just watched the conga lines/street parties on the news. The nation has lost its fucking mind. Were strapping in for the second wave. Im so, so tired, and so pissed off. Weve had a few days of respite and I was starting to feel hopeful. Cant believe I was so naive.
Dr Ami Jones, another intensive care specialist, tweeted a link to a table showing the UK with the highest death rate in the world from the disease. She said: Showing our supremacy in the world stats as we irresponsibly flout lockdown to celebrate VE Day in the worst fashion. Glad Ive had a couple of weeks away from ITU to recuperate as the next wave is going to make this horrific statistic even worse. Things are about to get busy.
Large numbers of people sunbathing and picnicking on Saturday in London Fields in Hackney, east London, led local police to tweet that they were fighting a losing battle with the public over their behaviour.
A senior police officer who survived a spell in intensive care with Covid-19 criticised the publics attitude towards observing the lockdown. Ch Supt Phil Dolby, of West Midlands police, wrote on Twitter: A month ago today, on a ventilator and in a coma, I started to breathe for myself. I am very disturbed by the increasingly blas way [people] are treating the lockdown. With lack of answers around immunity, my family and I are going to remain shielding. I cant go through that again.
One chief constable told the Guardian: There is far less compliance following mixed government messaging. It will be difficult to police anything other than large groups if freedom of movement is increased. What does that mean to people? It will be ignored. 90% ish doing the right thing at present. That will reduce dramatically over the coming weeks.
Senior police sources believe significant parts of their role in enforcing the lockdown are effectively over, other than policing large groups. Impossible, said one senior source.
The week before Sally Campbell sent her year 1 student back to school was a big worry week. The Sydney mother had been trying to manage home schooling her daughter, caring for her four-year-old son and working four days a week as a safety adviser in charge of the Covid-19 plan at a large manufacturing plant while her husband worked full-time outside the home and found it entirely impossible.
She took on the advice of her GP and closely monitored news about infection rates and the safety of schools. Eventually, Campbell decided to send her daughter back to school in week one of term two. It wasnt an easy decision, she says. I pondered and mulled it over for a good couple of weeks.
And despite being convinced it was the best possible course for her mental health, her daughters schooling and her ability to conduct her job, and that the Covid risks were low, she remained anxious. There was definitely a motherly worry through it all, wondering whether I was doing the wrong or right thing in sending her back.
Emerging from weeks of strict coronavirus lockdown, itself a cause of serious mental health disruption, the lifting of restrictions brings for many a sense of trepidation and unease. While some are bucking at the gate, waiting to return to life in the new normal, others are experiencing a lingering fear of contagion of the virus about which little is still understood. Others yet are experiencing a sadness about the loss of things gained during lockdown. Questions for many remain: what is safe? Where is the line between precaution and paranoia? And what do I not want to leave behind?
Anxiety across Australia has increased around twofold, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Coronavirus has caused a mass emotional event, says Roger Patulny, an associate professor of sociology at Wollongong University. This general climate is likely to continue, he says, but he has found that for some people life in lockdown has brought with it fewer pressures. In particular these are people who live in family situations partner, kids and the quality of their relationship is reasonably good and they are actually quite enjoying the lockdown because they are having some of the pressures of modern life reduced.
For those people, the end of lockdown may bring some reticence about re-entering a more hectic life. However, if youre a single person who lives on your own, you cant wait for it to be over.
Melissa Norberg, associate professor of clinical psychology and deputy director of the Centre for Emotional Health at Macquarie University, agrees that for different people the return to a new normal will have a different emotional implications. She says the return to stricter schedules, alarms, commutes and the need to wear something other than activewear marks a significant change for many people who have been isolating and working from home.
With time and with practice, you start to get used to things. This has been a heightened period of uncertainty for us, but during the past six weeks or so we have started to get used to that new normal, she says. As we go back, the evidence from previous pandemics where there has been a lot of social isolation is that within a month or two, people should start to readjust to that prior normal.
Australians have been warned to expect more coronavirus cases as restrictions are lifted and we socialise more freely. Norberg urges people to reach out with their worries. Its OK to feel uncertain, she says. Its OK to feel a little bit of distress. You will get through this.
Professor Ian Hickie, co-director of the Brain and Mind Centre at the University of Sydney, says that isolation and the unravelling economic situation is a far greater threat to mental health than returning to social groups. However, he says, the pandemic has caused a fundamental shift.
We generally take for granted that we go out in the world and nothing will happen to us, whereas [coronavirus] has been: rush into your homes, dont talk to anyone, dont interact with anyone, you might catch something that might kill you. Theres a sort of loss of security in that. It has challenged peoples fundamental optimism about the world.
But, Hickie says, the treatment for any such anxiety is to return to the world and social interaction as much as guidelines allow. Human beings, he says, are social animals and cope in a crisis by coming together. Our mental health is better when we are at school, work and socially connected. Anxiety leads to avoidance, which in turn heightens the fear, he says.
The treatment, the cure, is to go out there in the world and discuss with others and get back to your normal life.
In time, we will return to not just a new normal, but a close approximation of the old normal, says Patulny. Kisses hello and handshakes will re-emerge, he says. That sort of stuff is a pleasant part of human nature and a longer term part of our culture its just having a rest.
Meanwhile, Campbell is satisfied that the risks associated with going back to school and work are low. I have greater anxiety going to Kmart, to be honest.
In one case, the second positive test occurred within a month of the first, so it might have been the same infection, said Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbias Mailman School of Public Health. But generally, it seemed the immune system couldnt recognize, and fight off, coronaviruses it had encountered just a few months before.
WASHINGTONThe Trump administration is planning to issue a warning that hackers tied to the Chinese government are attempting to pilfer information from U.S. researchers working on the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The alert, from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security, is expected to accuse Beijing of working to steal from American institutions intellectual property and health information related to coronavirus vaccines and treatment...
Scientists have found evidence for mutations in some strains of the coronavirus that suggest the pathogen may be adapting to humans after spilling over from bats.
The analysis of more than 5,300 coronavirus genomes from 62 countries shows that while the virus is fairly stable, some have gained mutations, including two genetic changes that alter the critical spike protein the virus uses to infect human cells.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine stress that it is unclear how the mutations affects the virus, but since the changes arose independently in different countries they may help the virus spread more easily.
The spike mutations are rare at the moment but Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases and a senior author on the study, said their emergence highlights the need for global surveillance of the virus so that more worrying changes are picked up fast.
This is exactly what we need to look out for, Hibberd said. People are making vaccines and other therapies against this spike protein because it seems a very good target. We need to keep an eye on it and make sure that any mutations dont invalidate any of these approaches.
Studies of the virus revealed early on that the shape of its spike protein allowed it to bind to human cells more efficiently than Sars, a related virus that sparked an outbreak in 2002. The difference may have helped the latest coronavirus infect more people and spread rapidly around the world.
Scientists will be concerned if more extensive mutations in the spike protein arise, not only because they may alter how the virus behaves. The spike protein is the main target of leading vaccines around the world, and if it changes too much those vaccines may no longer work. Other potential therapies, such as synthetic antibodies that home in on the spike protein, could be less effective, too.
This is an early warning, Hibberd said. Even if these mutations are not important for vaccines, other mutations might be and we need to maintain our surveillance so we are not caught out by deploying a vaccine that only works against some strains.
The scientists analysed 5,349 coronavirus genomes that have been uploaded to two major genetics databases since the outbreak began. By studying the genetic makeup of the viruses, the scientists worked out how it has diversified into different strains and looked for signs that it was adapting to its human host.
In an unpublished study that has yet to be peer reviewed, the researchers identified two broad groups of coronavirus that have now spread globally. Of the two spike mutations, one was found in 788 viruses around the world, with the other present in only 32.
The study shows that, until January, one group of coronaviruses in China escaped detection because they had a mutation in the genetic region that early tests relied on. More recent tests detect all of the known types of the virus.
Last month, an international team of scientists used genetic analyses to show that the coronavirus likely originated in bats and was not made in a lab as some conspiracy theorists have claimed.
The long-term solution to ending the coronavirus pandemic and returning to normal life is an effective vaccine. Companies and researchers across the globe have accepted the challenge of trying to develop one as quickly as possible. Investors expect the stocks of companies that successfully deliver a vaccine to gain in value.
According to BioCentury, a healthcare industry news publisher, 12 coronavirus vaccines are in human trials. Another 77 vaccine programs are in preclinical development.How can someone hoping to invest in a developer of a potential coronavirus vaccine figure out where to begin?
Image Source: Getty Images.
Look to the big pharmaceutical companies and the companies collaborating with them. This means starting with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK), and Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY). Sure, these may not be sexy biotech names, but these relatively stable firms have all posted stock increases of roughly 25% since lows in March.
Estimates vary wildly, but most do not expect a viable vaccine until 2021. And late in the year at that. Dividend-paying big pharma companies allow investors to get paid while waiting for that day to arrive. Further, the companies provide diversification across an entire portfolio of therapies. Expect the stocks to move on the news of a vaccine's success, not on the actual monetary return.
Any successful developer of a coronavirus vaccine will need to manufacture and distribute the medication across the world. That's assuming the vaccine gets the go-ahead from regulatory authorities in each country. Multinational pharma companies have the necessary experience in getting approvals globally and have manufacturing and distribution capabilities in a variety of geographies.
Many doses of the vaccine will need to be manufactured. Individual companies have announced plans for producing hundreds of millions to billions of vaccine doses. Small companies simply lack the capital to scale up manufacturing and distribution the way a global pharma can. Johnson & Johnson has already started scaling manufacturing efforts around the globe to be ready for a possible vaccine in 2021. This is such a large undertaking even giants Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline opted to work together rather than compete.
Image Source: Getty Images.
Two of the most advanced vaccines hail from Chinese companies CanSino Biologics and Sinovac Biotech (NASDAQ:SVA). In the U.S., Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) took an early lead in clinical testing of its vaccine. With a $19 billion market cap, Moderna has access to $2.4 billion, including $483 million in government funding, to fuel its ambitious efforts. The company also teamed up with global chemical manufacturer Lonza (OTC:LZAGY) to scale up global production.
Another smaller investment idea is BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), a German biotech that IPO'd last October. Like Moderna, BioNTech is pursuing mRNA-based vaccines. Pfizer saw promise in the company's coronavirus vaccine approach and forged a co-development deal in March. To me, this signals Biontech's approach has a reasonable shot. The first human testing started this month.
Smaller biotechs Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO) and Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) have embarked on the COVID-19 vaccine journey but offer investors added risk. Inovio's track record of trying to capitalize on the 2009 swine flu and 2013 avian flu may raise eyebrows. Efforts were full steam ahead until they seemed to vanish a few years later.
Using its proprietary technology platform, Novavax has announced it plans to start its coronavirus vaccine trial in mid-May. The company simply has too little capital -- $82.2 million as of Dec. 31, 2019 to aggressively compete. Yes, it received $4 million from the government to get the vaccine into a clinical trial and it says additional funding conversations with Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations are ongoing to address costs through phase 1 trials. It's also working with Emergent BioSolutions (NYSE:EBS) on the manufacturing side, butNovavax will likely need to attract a global partner to expedite and expand the scale of its program.
The stocks of many micro-cap companies have popped upon news of entering the COVID-19 fray. Many of these companies use the jump in stock price to raise additional capital to fund operations. Unfortunately, the majority of these will likely never get a program off the ground and into a definitive efficacy trial. The simple reasons: lack of capital, bandwidth, and will. Small companies do not typically have enough money and personnel to quickly add in another program without it impeding prior R&D activities. For those that do, it will likely be at too slow a pace to be meaningful.
Healthcare investors wanting to invest in the COVID-19 vaccine space should seek those companies with the greatest odds of success. For me, that means bigger companies with global testing, regulatory, and manufacturing capabilities. Since no one knows which vaccine will succeed, a portfolio approach of a few pharma alongside the most advanced biotechs Moderna, BioNTech, and Sinovac give ample exposure. Let's keep our fingers crossed that one or more of these companies succeed.
Promising coronavirus vaccine candidate from China in talks to be tested globally | Photo Credit: iStock Images
New Delhi: As the race towards a vaccine against novel coronavirus intensifies, the drugmaker firm behind one of China's most promising vaccine candidates is proposing to conduct late-stage trials of the vaccine globally.
According to a report by Bloomberg, Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is in discussions with regulatory bodies in other countries, and the WHO, to launch phase 3 trials of the vaccine in regions where the virus is spreading rapidly.
To evaluate whether the vaccine can give protection, we need to study the relationbetween disease incidence and vaccination, Yin said. You cant do that when there are no cases., CEO Yin Weidong said in an interview Thursday.
China has largely reduced the growth of new infections in the country and the drugmakers now need to seek international cooperation to test their vaccine candidates. Politically, it may be a struggle given the tensions between China and other countries, like the USA, about the origin of the virus. No specific countries were mentioned by Yin, but he hinted that the US may be an ideal location. The U.S. has the most developed biotech industry, the most sophisticated regulatory framework and its epidemic is now the worst, he said.
Sinovac is of the three Chinese companies that are on top of their game to stop the coronavirus pandemic. More than a hundred vaccines are reportedly under development around the world, but only 10 of them have reached the final stage of human testing.The coronavirus pandemic has infected more than 3.9 million people worldwide, while more than 2,75,000 people have lost their lives due to the virus. A working vaccine is the best hope for the world, especially counties that are the worst affected due to the virus, and are seeing repercussions of the pandemic on their economy and normal life of citizens. However, vaccines take years to develop and still do not exist for various diseases like Malaria and HIV.
