Machine learning helps doctors stay ahead of the flu Derek Smith, University of Cambridge & Jessica Stockdale, Simon Fraser University
In the northern hemisphere, flu season is once again upon us. Each year, as the virus circulates, millions are infected and hundreds of thousands of people die from the infection, especially the more vulnerable. Thankfully there is an international vaccine programme which uses samples collected from the opposite side of the world during their flu season to try to stay one step ahead of how the virus will evolve and change. Cambridge Universitys Professor Derek Smith, an expert on the evolution of diseases like the flu, sits on the panel that designs those vaccines
Derek - Flu is a respiratory virus. It kills, worldwide, about half a million people a year. It infects about 10% of the world's population each year.
Chris - Why do we have a flu season? What drives the fact that it always comes at a certain time of the year, give or take?
Derek - Well, we don't know. In places like the UK in the northern hemisphere where there's clear winters, it happens in the wintertime. But flu happens in Bangkok where it's 37 degrees year round, pretty much. In tropical regions like that, it usually happens during the rainy season. Now whether or not it's the amount of moisture in the air, whether it's the fact that during the rain and during the winter we're all in closed rooms together and we can transmit more easily, whether we don't see as much sunlight, it's really unclear and it's been an outstanding question for many, many years. Nobody knows yet.
Chris - And why do we keep catching it? Because if I catch measles, which I luckily haven't, I'd be immune for life. Why is that not the case with flu?
Derek - It's not the case with flu because the flu virus has adopted a lifestyle where it can change over time to evolve, to get mutations that can escape the immunity that we get. And typically we all get flu once every five or 10 years.
Chris - When it changes, what does it change about itself to mean that I can keep catching it?
Derek - It changes in a way that escapes the antibodies that we've built up against earlier strains in a very similar way to the antibodies that we all had against the early Covid strains, either from being infected or vaccinated. Those new variants as well, they've escaped that prior immunity, and flu does the same thing. There are critical amino acid substitutions on its surface in the area where the antibodies care about that can make it so those antibodies we have can't bind there anymore and neutralise the virus. So these new variants can reinfect us because our old antibodies don't work anymore
Chris - And that's why we need a vaccine every year.
Derek - That's exactly why we need a vaccine every year. And in many years, the variance of flu that we put in the vaccine, means they have to be changed to track the evolution of the virus.
Chris - You are one of the people who sits on the panel helping to decide what goes into those vaccines. How do you make that decision?
Derek - There's a fantastic worldwide network. I think it's about 150 countries worldwide now, taking throat swabs from people who look like they might have flu and, if it is, checking to see how different it is from earlier variants. This happens in those countries and it also happens by these viruses being sent to one of five laboratories around the world that do very careful analysis. One in Melbourne, Australia, Beijing, China, Tokyo, Japan, Atlanta in the US, and in London here in the UK. Those viruses are tested - as well as seeing how different they are from each other - to test how well our immunity will work against those viruses. And if our current immunity won't work well against the new viruses that are evolving, then we have to update the strain of flu that is in the vaccine.
Chris - What arrives in our winter is going to be six months out of phase with what was doing the rounds in the southern hemisphere. How do you know that what turns up here six months later from Australia is going to be what you think it is?
Derek - Yeah, so this is really the million dollar question because when we make the choice of which strain to put in the vaccine... for example, the strains that people are getting vaccinated with now to protect them against the flu, that will probably come in the next few months. We chose that strain in February this year because enough vaccines had to be made to vaccinate everybody. Currently I think there are about 700 million doses of vaccine made each year. We do the best job that can be done in February to figure out what's going to happen the next year. But it's not a perfect science yet.
... and they expect to be right about 40-70% of the time. But how can we improve on that? Well Simon Fraser University's Jessica Stockdale thinks we might be able to use machine learning to spot patterns in the evolving genetic code of flu that predict the next move the virus will make. As she shows in a paper this week in the journal Science Advances, she's used genetic data from epidemics in previous years to train her system, and then tested it using what we know the virus did more recently to gauge its accuracy. She was hitting the bullseye up to 95% of the time; used alongside existing approaches like those Derek mentioned, it could dramatically reinforce our present vaccination initiative...
Jessica - We take an approach which we can describe as building something like a family tree of our influenza viruses. So we collected about 30,000 public influenza sequences from between 1980 to 2020, and we built this phylogenetic tree, this family tree of those influenza viruses, and used the the structure of that tree, which tracks the mutations that are accruing in flu over time, to look at how the different flu viruses are related to one another to try and predict what was going to grow moving forwards. So our machine learning model looks at which flu viruses are around right now, it calculates various statistics on that tree; how fast are a small family of flu viruses growing? How large is this family? What's the shape to try and classify? Yes or no - will that group of flu viruses be a big problem for us in the next year?
Chris - I guess it's a bit like watching the flu dance floor and seeing what moves it makes, and if you know the dance, you can say, well, when it does that move, it tends to follow it with that move. And so you are doing that for the structure of the virus and therefore you've got some chance of making a guesstimate as to what it is likely to do next.
Jessica - Yes, exactly. It's a great analogy. And it's difficult because flu viruses don't always do the dance moves that we expect that they're going to do. But if we look over the whole globe of all of the different patterns that they're making, there are general patterns that emerge, we might hope, and that's what we're trying to predict.
Chris - Does it work though, Jessica? When you've taught your model using the past, is there not a risk that you end up answering the question that you wanted it to answer rather than what's genuinely going to happen? Can you test it going forward to make sure it's robust?
Jessica - Yes, it's difficult, but that's what we've been trying to do. We did five different experiments on the last five years of our data from 2016 to 2020. We tried to make a prediction, assuming that we did not know what happened. In the end, we masked from ourselves the truth and used that as a method to test our approach. And we found our model to be around 75 to 95% accurate at predicting what was going to be successful the next year.
Chris - The WHO reckon they get it right about 70% of the time, so that would put you at least as good as the current endeavour and possibly better.
Jessica - Yeah. So there's a couple of different ways of measuring success, but we found our approach to be pretty similar to that found by the WHO, despite the fact that we have some more limited data. We're limited to public data only, so that's why we hope that our approach would be a useful addition to the toolbox, I would say, in trying to do this vaccine strain selection.
Chris - So what's the computer doing that we can't with our current WHO panels and so on achieve, or we can but we can't do it as well as your computer system. What's the missing link that you are plugging into?
Jessica - I would say that a human or a person could do what the machine learning model is doing. It's just able to do these calculations a lot faster than us, and there are certainly things that the WHO are taking into account when they pick vaccine strains that we would still want to do, such as, 'is the strain we're selecting even viable for vaccine selection?' But this computer is able to be a helper for us to have this really fast thinking that can add into our own human intelligence that we're using to pick these strengths.
The weekly retrospective gives a summary of trends in acute respiratory infections, including COVID-19 and influenza (influenza virus) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
COVID-19: Stabilisation or even a slight increase after a fall in recent weeks.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): Slight acceleration in the circulation of the RSV virus, but still at a low level.
Influenza: Very few cases of flu have been detected, with circulation at a low level.
From 23 to 29 October 2023 (week 43), the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased to 282 cases, compared to 259 cases the previous week (+9%).
The positivity rate rose to 23% compared with 20% the previous week. The viral concentration detected in wastewater confirms the increase in circulation of the virus [1].
These 3 indicators suggest that the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 is starting to increase again following several weeks of decline. Recent sequencing data showed a preponderance of the EG.5.1 variant (38.7%) [2].
For the week of 23 to 29 October 2023 (week 43), the number of influenza cases reported by laboratories rose to 7, compared with 3 case the previous week.
This data largely overlaps with LNS sentinel surveillance, which indicates increased circulation of rhinoviruses and SARS-CoV-2, but little circulation of influenza viruses [2].
For week 43 (23-29 October 2023), the number of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-positive individuals detected by laboratories rose to 18 cases, compared with 9 cases the previous week.
The circulation of the RSV virus is beginning to accelerate.
Press release by the Ministry of Health
[1] https://www.list.lu/en/covid-19/coronastep/
[2] https://lns.lu/publications/
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Contact a qualified medical professional before engaging in any physical activity, or making any changes to your diet, medication or lifestyle.
It's officially fall, and that means cold and flu season are in full force.
Finding yourself bedridden from the flu is uncomfortable at any age, but for kids five and younger, influenza season can be especially dangerous and even deadly.
New data from the Public Health Agency of Canada's (PHAC) FluWatch reported unprecedented numbers of influenza-related pediatric (patients 16 or younger) hospitalizations and deaths during the latest flu season. The 2022/2023 season saw 1,792 pediatric influenza associated hospitalizations, finding children between the ages of two and nine accounted for 56 per cent of these hospitalizations and 48 per cent of pediatric ICU admissions.
On top of this, there were 10 influenza-associated pediatric deaths in the same year. This was a drastic increase from the 2021/2022 flu season, which reported only 303 pediatric influenza-associated hospitalizations and no deaths.
"The flu is not just a cold," Dr. Paul Roumeliotis, a pediatrician, health communication officer and CEO of Eastern Ontario Health Unit, tells Yahoo Canada.
"The flu is caused by an influenza virus, A or B usually it's A that starts like a cold, but has fever, chills, body aches, difficulty breathing, and [can require] hospitalization. Unfortunately, it can be deadly even in young children."
According to the doctor, there are a few reasons for these seemingly drastic numbers.
With everyone inside during the COVID-19 pandemic and masking, rates of respiratory infections like the flu and RSV dropped. "And then all of a sudden [these restrictions] were removed," Roumeliotis said. With many young children having not been vaccinated against the flu during the pandemic, "we saw a big onslaught of flu in the community that was looking at people who were vulnerable and were not vaccinated or immune."
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Another reason may be lower vaccination rates overall. In Roumeliotis's own community, less than five per cent of eligible children received the flu shot last year. This is, in large part, due to people making the assumption that unlike other vulnerable populations like senior citizens children aren't as heavily affected by the flu.
"That's not true," Roumeliotis claimed. "What we do see is that, particularly children less than five years of age are at higher risk of complications [due to] the flu."
Read on for everything you need to know about getting your child vaccinated this fall.
Research has shown getting the influenza vaccine can mitigate the response to the flu and in many cases, be life-saving.
A 2022 study from Clinical Infectious Diseases found children who received the influenza vaccine were 75 per cent less-likely to experience severe, life-threatening influenza.
Another study, looking at influenza seasons between 2010 and 2014, showed that the risk of death due to influenza was reduced by 51 per cent in children with higher-risk chronic health problems, and by 65 per cent in healthy children.
Currently, the influenza vaccine (also known as the flu shot) is available free of charge to anyone in Canada and can be found in many pharmacies, including ones in drug stores like Shoppers.
A list of vaccines used for influenza in Canada is available here.
FluMist is a nasal spray option approved for people between the ages of two and 59, but it's not publicly funded in some provinces.
According to Roumeliotis and other experts, the flu shot is safe, available, and effective for children who are six months of age and older.
The earlier the better.
The Canadian Pediatric Society recommends the influenza vaccine be given as soon as it's available at the start of flu season, between October and December.
According to PHAC, children may experience mild side effects after the flu shot.
Some of these effects may include:
"Severe reactions are very, very rare," Roumeliotis emphasized. These rare reactions may include: breathing problems, hoarseness or wheezing, hives, and dizziness.
Most importantly, "I want to tell people that [the vaccine] will not give you the flu. It will not cause a cold or anything like that," Roumeliotis said.
In short: yes.
Because the flu virus changes every year, a previous year's flu shot may not be able to protect against the new, circulating virus.
"What we do see is that it's better than not getting vaccinated," Roumeliotis claimed. "So it might make the difference between: you'll get the flu, but you won't end up in hospital."
As for concerns that getting the flu shot every year will lower its effectiveness? Data from the Canadian Pediatric Society supports annual vaccination.
If your child is under the age of six months and is unable to be vaccinated for the flu, COVID-19 or RSV, the best option is to limit exposure to large crowds, Roumeliotis advised.
This means not toting your newborn to a 20,000 person hockey game something the pediatrician has seen.
"Particularly during flu season and respiratory season, try to keep them home as much as possible, not to be mixed with a lot of people," the doctor said. "The more viruses that are out there, the babies are more susceptible."
Other routine things include staying at home when you're sick, coughing into your sleeve, washing your hands, disinfecting surfaces, and ensuring the family around the child is vaccinated.
It's important for parents to get their children six months and older the flu shot, not only for their children's health and safety, but for those in the community as well.
"Parents underestimate the flu," Roumeliotis claimed, "and we're trying to reverse that. We're trying to improve that knowledge and foster increased uptake among young children, particularly less than five years of age."
In addition to the flu this season, kids are also at risk of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a virus that starts like a cold but goes into the small [bronchial] tubes and causes bronchiolitis.
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Young children and older people are the most vulnerable to serious complications from the infections
Read more...
Published: Fri 3 Nov 2023, 7:00 AM
Last updated: Fri 3 Nov 2023, 11:34 PM
Did you know stomach flu could be contagious?
Doctors in the UAE highlight cases of stomach flu or viral gastroenteritis are increasing as these typically occur during the winter months and could be contagious.
Young children and older people are the most vulnerable to serious complications from the infections, sometimes even leading to hospitalisation.
They also explain there are different variants of the stomach bug, with the virus being contagious and spreading quickly among infected people.
This can happen via close contact, touching infected surfaces, and sharing food and utensils.
Dr Osama Elsayed Rezk Elassy, clinical assistant professor, consultant and head of the division, Centre for Paediatrics and Neonatology, Thumbay University Hospital said, There is an approximately 30-35 per cent increase in stomach flu cases among children as compared to the last few months.
Medics explain this extremely contagious virus produces diarrhoea, vomiting, and nausea associated with gastroenteritis. There seems to be an increase in the number of patients who come in complaining of having the winter stomach flu, which is an often-used term for a number of gastrointestinal disorders that are more prevalent in the winter, Elassy added.
Dr Moaz Naser, General Practitioner, NMC Royal Hospital, DIP warned of a surge in patient numbers in the coming months. He said, There may be an increase in numbers during the coming period, during December and January.
They highlight its crucial to understand that the stomach flu is not the same as influenza, a virus-induced respiratory condition. Elassy continued, Rather, the term stomach flu typically describes an infection of the intestines and stomach caused by a virus called viral gastroenteritis.
The fecal-oral route is the mode of transmission, meaning that contaminated food, water, or bowel movements can all result in infection. It can remain on surfaces as well. Inadequate maintenance of hand hygiene may raise the risk of infection transmission.
During the flu season, which typically occurs in the colder months, people are more likely to be indoors near others, especially in colder countries.
This close contact can facilitate the spread of both respiratory and gastrointestinal viruses.
This is indeed common in conjunction with the flu, and the pattern tends to occur, especially around this time of the year, said Dr Mariam Esamy, General Practitioner, Burjeel Farha, Al Ain.
Healthcare professionals point out the winter flu causes symptoms like vomiting, stomach cramps, nausea, unable to eat properly, bloating, farting, reflux issues, and diarrhoea.
It is typically transmitted by coming into contact with an infected person, eating or drinking tainted food or water, or touching surfaces contaminated with the virus.
Dr Gorika Bansal, Specialist Peadiatrician with Prime Medical Center Barsha Heights said, The flu season is undoubtedly here, and we are seeing a surge in the number of cases since the beginning of October and there is a clear increase in the patient footfall. The number of cases in the OPD has gone up significantlymore than 35 per cent. A lot of people are testing positive for influenza A.
She adds, These viruses like influenza, norovirus, and adenovirus, among others, are highly contagious.
These infections can easily spread in densely populated areas, such as restaurants, schools, and daycares, where people come into contact with contaminated surfaces.
According to doctors, as children often touch various surfaces and then touch their faces or consume food without washing their hands, it leads to rapid transmission of these infections among them.
A lot of children have come in with stomach issues especially repeated episodes of vomiting and the child not being able to eat for the last couple of days, with the child throwing up in the wee hours of the day. Stomach infections are very commonly seen during flu, being a viral infection. This can have multisystem symptoms. Along with respiratory issues there could be gastroenteritis symptoms as well, added Bansal.
Doctors point out that a child needs to be rushed to the hospital in case he/she has a very high fever, is not responding to oral medicines, or is extremely lethargic and irritable.
She added, In case the child does not accept anything orally, has repeated bouts of vomiting, is almost lining up into dehydration with symptoms like dry mouth, reduced platelet count, or demanding water again and again or looks very dull. In addition, if a child has respiratory distress parents must visit the nearest hospital or contact their childs paediatrician at the earliest.
Treatment for viral gastroenteritis consists mostly of supportive care and symptom management with antibiotics being administered in serious cases.
Elassy said, The most important thing is to stay hydrated and use ORS. The typical course of viral gastroenteritis is five to six days; however, it can extend longer. The key factor is to stay hydrated-whether its adults or children.
Indiana has had its first two flu-related deaths of the season.The Indiana Department of Health made the announcement on Thursday, but did not give any information regarding the deaths, including age or location, citing privacy laws.Last flu season, 270 Hoosiers died after contracting influenza."Influenza can quickly become a serious, even life-threatening illness for some Hoosiers," State Health Commissioner Lindsay Weaver said. "While no two flu seasons are exactly alike, we always recommend getting an annual flu shot as soon as possible to provide the best protection against becoming seriously ill."Flu season typically runs from October through May.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends everyone aged 6 months and older get a flu vaccine. For other ways to help prevent the spread of flu, click here.
Indiana has had its first two flu-related deaths of the season.
The Indiana Department of Health made the announcement on Thursday, but did not give any information regarding the deaths, including age or location, citing privacy laws.
Last flu season, 270 Hoosiers died after contracting influenza.
"Influenza can quickly become a serious, even life-threatening illness for some Hoosiers," State Health Commissioner Lindsay Weaver said. "While no two flu seasons are exactly alike, we always recommend getting an annual flu shot as soon as possible to provide the best protection against becoming seriously ill."
Flu season typically runs from October through May.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends everyone aged 6 months and older get a flu vaccine.
For other ways to help prevent the spread of flu, click here.
COVID still remains a public health priority, especially among the older population where the disease has been more serious.
Kathleen Cameron, senior director of The National Council on Agings Center for Healthy Aging, joined the show with COVID and flu vaccine guidance for older adults.
Flu and Covid-19 Vaccine drive happening in Jefferson Parish
Leaders are trying to make it easy for you to roll up your sleeve and get your vaccines.
Updated: 6:09 AM CDT Nov 3, 2023
Jefferson Parish and the Louisiana Department of Health will be hosting a flu and COVID-19 vaccine drive on Saturday, November 4, 2023 from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. at Nicholson Playground (7101 11th St., Marrero, LA 70072).Moderna bivalent COVID-19 vaccines will be administered to anyone over the age of 6 months that does not have insurance or is underinsured. The flu vaccine will be available for anyone over the age of 6 months. There is no cost to receive the flu or COVID-19 vaccines, please bring health insurance card. For more information, please contact the Jefferson Parish Emergency Management Department at (504) 349-5360.
Jefferson Parish and the Louisiana Department of Health will be hosting a flu and COVID-19 vaccine drive on Saturday, November 4, 2023 from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. at Nicholson Playground (7101 11th St., Marrero, LA 70072).
Moderna bivalent COVID-19 vaccines will be administered to anyone over the age of 6 months that does not have insurance or is underinsured. The flu vaccine will be available for anyone over the age of 6 months. There is no cost to receive the flu or COVID-19 vaccines, please bring health insurance card.
For more information, please contact the Jefferson Parish Emergency Management Department at (504) 349-5360.
When the first vaccines for COVID-19 rolled out in December 2020, some people hoped they would be a silver bullet against the novel virus the way that polio and smallpox shots are nearly 100% effective against those diseases.
Instead, the updated COVID vaccine is being compared to the flu vaccine in the sense that its goal is to prevent severe disease, hospitalization and death rather than to eliminate infection entirely.
That doesnt mean the COVID and flu vaccines are failures, health experts at Northeastern say.
Mansoor Amiji, university distinguished professor of pharmaceutical sciences and chemical engineering, and Neil Maniar, professor of the practice in public health, say vaccines differ according to whether the viruses theyve been designed to quell are mutating or stable.
The measles and polio viruses are stable and dont mutate over time, Amiji says. The same is true for the virus for smallpox, which has been eradicated globally and only exists in the lab.
Making a vaccine with an antigen from a stable virus means a vaccinated persons immune system is primed to recognize and destroy the virus every time it appears, Amiji says.
If you start to see an outbreak of polio, in any part of the world, these vaccines are still incredibly effective. If the virus crops up, it wont evade the immune system or evade the vaccines response, he says.
Such is not the case with influenza, the virus that causes flu, and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
COVID-19 has gone through an alphabet soup of strains, from the Alpha to Beta, Delta, Omicron, Pirola and Eris and is still evolving.
Even though we have so many people either having natural infection or who have been vaccinated, these viruses continue to mutate, Amiji says.
Were making vaccines that are looking for the spike proteins in the virus and are basically teaching our immune cells to look for the spike protein. But if the spike protein is mutating, then the vaccine efficacy starts to wane, he says.
Influenza mutates even faster, which is why there are new flu vaccine formulas every year and why 50% is considered a good efficacy rate, he says.
The combinations of antigenic proteins on the influenza surface, known as hemagglutinin and neuraminidase the H and N in virus nomenclature vary year to year and even within the flu season, Amiji says.
The flu vaccine is made up of a cocktail of these peptides, he says. Its really a guessing game. There is no way of knowing which strain will be prevalent and which vaccines will work, he says.
That rate is making the flu vaccine a harder sell among the public.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says during a year with a good match, vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population.
Consumer research shows that many people believe flu vaccination doesnt work because of first- or second-hand experience where vaccination may not have prevented illness, the CDC says.
Concerned about drops in flu vaccination among high-risk groups such as pregnant women and children during the COVID-19 pandemic, the CDC this fall came up with a new campaign one that spotlights how the flu vaccine can reduce not only the risk of influenza but of potentially serious outcomes.
Called Wild to Mild, the campaign pairs images of powerful and dangerous animals with innocuous counterparts a raging bear with a teddy bear or a lion with a kitten, for instance.
Its definitely a change in messaging, Maniar says.
Its a clarification in what is being messaged, he says. There has been sort of this prevailing idea that, If I get the vaccine, Im not going to get the flu. And we know thats not the case.
Theres a lot of empirical evidence to show what the vaccine really does is it reduces severity. It reduces the likelihood that someone is going to be hospitalized or even die from getting the flu, Maniar says.
The same is true with vaccination for COVID-19, he says.
There are some individuals who after getting vaccinated will not get the flu or get COVID, because their immune systems have a more robust protection against the virus, Maniar says.
But thats not the case for everyone. I think thats where managing expectations comes into play, he says.
The updated COVID vaccine no longer called a booster by the FDA targets the XBB.1.5 Omicron strain prevalent this spring. Pfizer says the monovalent vaccine also addresses currently circulating offshoots of Omicron, known as Eris or EG.5, and Pirola, BA.2.86.
Vaccination remains right now our best strategy to not just ideally prevent but to have a benign type of infection, just basically a few chills and a sore throat, Amiji says.
It would be great if you dont get infected. But even if you do get the infection it will be very mild, and you wont be hospitalized.
The flu virus undergoes both antigenic shifts and drifts, Amiji says.
The former is when hemagglutinin and neuraminidase undergo such huge changes the influenza vaccine is not effective at all. Drift is when slight modification occurs, he says.
There are glimmers of hope that both flu and COVID vaccines will become more effective in the future, Amiji says.
Using AI in pharmaceutical technology has led to preclinical studies showing the effectiveness of a universal mRNA flu vaccine that covers more than dozen flu strains in a season, he says.
The same concept is being applied to a universal COVID vaccine, Amiji says.
Theyre not in the clinic yet, he says, but adds he wouldnt be surprised if they were on the market by next fall.
In the meantime, Amiji says he plans to get the updated COVID vaccine and a flu shot this weekend.
I would absolutely recommend that people get their flu and COVID vaccines as soon as possible, he says.
As we get toward the winter season, and people start congregating with Thanksgiving holidays and Christmas holidays, the propensity for infection just increases.
Cynthia McCormick Hibbert is a Northeastern Global News reporter. Email her at c.hibbert@northeastern.edu or contact her on X/Twitter @HibbertCynthia.
What experts expect this flu season
In the Southern Hemisphere, influenza cases picked up a bit earlier than they typically do in some countries, but ultimately didn't result in an especially large number of hospitalizations or deaths, experts said.
Experts also said this year's flu vaccine is a good match to the predominant strain of influenza.
One study found the current flu vaccine reduced the risk for flu-related hospitalizations by 52% in the Southern Hemisphere, which is a strong indicator of how effective the vaccine is, according to Alicia Budd, head of CDC's domestic influenza surveillance team.
Rick Zimmerman, a professor of family medicine and flu epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh, cautioned that while epidemiologists tend to look at the Southern Hemisphere to predict this year's flu season, the United States doesn't always follow the same patterns.
"Sometimes you get a new variant that arises that they did not experience in the Southern Hemisphere," he said. And other times, the main influenza strain circulating in the Southern Hemisphere varies, making it difficult to predict what the U.S. flu season will look like.
Seema Lakdawala, an associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Emory School of Medicine, said flu cases will likely start rising soon now that COVID-19 cases are starting to drop.
Peaks of different types of viruses don't often overlap, Lakdawala said. Once you recover from one respiratory virus, it's unlikely you'll be infected with another one for around a month or two, as your innate immune response increases your protection from another infection.
CDC recommends that everyone ages six months and older get vaccinated for the flu. Ideally, those eligible for the flu vaccine got their shot by the end of October. However, it's still good to get vaccinated as long as influenza is circulating, which can stretch into the spring.
Once you get your shot, it'll take your body around a week or two to develop enough antibodies to protect you, Zimmerman said. Your antibody levels will peak around three to four weeks after you receive the vaccine and then will start to decline, but experts say you're still protected for around four to six months.
Shortly after you're vaccinated, your antibody levels are high enough that you could be protected from a nose infection as well as a chest or lung infection. Months later, when those antibody levels begin to decline, you won't be as protected above the throat but should still be protected in your chest.
"So you likely have protection for your lungs, which will keep you out of the hospital and keep you from getting really sick," Zimmerman said. "The vaccine may not prevent nose colds but it prevents a lot of hospitalizations and deaths due to heart and lung issues."
If you do get sick, especially if you're more at-risk for serious complications, you should see a doctor to determine whether you have the flu or COVID-19. Doing so early can help you get started on antiviral medication, which can help reduce the length and severity of your illness.
"The sooner you take it, the more effective it will be," Budd said. (Reddy, Wall Street Journal, 10/30)
INDIANAPOLIS The Indiana Department of Health announced the first two flu-related deaths of the 2023-24 season Thursday and issued a statement urging Hoosiers to get vaccinated.
No information about those who died was released due to privacy laws, the department said.
According to the IDOH, more than 270 Indiana residents died after contracting the flu during the 2022-23 flu season, which typically runs from October through May.
While no two flu seasons are exactly alike, we always recommend getting an annual flu shot as soon as possible to provide the best protection against becoming seriously ill," Indiana State Health Commissioner Lindsay Weaver said in a statement.
The CDC recommends everyone 6 months and older get a flu vaccine each year.
More information on the flu vaccine, tips to prevent the spread of flu and symptoms to watch out for can be found on the state health department's website.
