CREVE COEUR, Mo. It's estimated that roughly 10% of people who contract COVID-19 will experience long-term symptoms.
A new study at Washington University in St. Louis is aiming to give long COVID-19 patients hope.
For 49 years, Rev. Philip Douglass has dedicated his life to preaching the gospel.
I was the kind of guy who would memorize my sermons, Rev. Philip Douglass said.
After battling COVID in March 2020, Douglass was struggling to remember the scripture.
It was quite an adjustment for me, Douglass said. All of my symptoms are normal for long COVID.
Struggling for answers Douglass turned to Washington University.
Its been known now for some time that COVID infection can have manifestations in the brain, said Dr. Eric Lenze.
Lenze says many long COVID patients have similar symptoms.
Depletion of serotonin, which is an important chemical of the brain involved in mood, thinking and energy, Lenze said.
Lenze is studying 300 patients using a drug known as Fluvoxamine, an antidepressant, to see if they show any improvement over a 12-week trial.
Weve had people who have completed this study already who have found some benefits, she said.
The trial hasnt worked out for me, Douglass said. I think Im one of the placebo.
Though the trial is random Lenze is still offering people like Douglass, who may have received the placebo, a reason to hope.
As long as you stick in the study, well make sure that you eventually definitely get the medication, so you can see if its helpful for you individually, Lenze said.
I am hopeful, Douglass said. I tend to be a pretty optimistic guy.
If you would like to enroll in Washington University's long COVID trial call 314-747-8906.
November 2, 2023
PROVIDENCE, RI On Monday, November 6, the City will request the Board of Contract and Supply to approve entering into contract with United Way of Rhode Island to fulfill an expanded scope of work outlined in the COVID-19 Equities Program, an ARPA ordinance drafted by the previous Administration outlining how the city will invest federal dollars to improve local racial equity.
Upon entering office, the Smiley Administration began conducting a line-by-line review of all ARPA ordinances. Through the review, lines were analyzed by their original intent, total funding allocated and whether the benefits of a current program or initiative could be maximized through additional funding. It was determined many of the funding totals were not enough to deliver what was outlined in the ordinance. In an effort to meet the intent of the proposal and increase the impact of the limited dollars, United Way was identified as a partner that has existing programs, established infrastructure, and afocus on equity. The remaining programming and allocated funds in the COVID-19 Equities Program will be administered by the City over the next few years.
I am incredibly excited to partner with United Way of Rhode Island to advance the many programs included in the COVID-19 Equities Program, said Mayor Brett P. Smiley. United Way is a trusted community partner taking meaningful steps to close local equity gaps. Over the coming months and years, we look forward to working with them to ensure each of these programs have the positive impact the Providence Municipal Reparations Commission intended them to have within our community.
United Way was included as a programming partner in the COVID-19 Equities Program when the ordinance was originally drafted. This new proposal would expand United Ways scope of work to focus on three main areas: 1) creation of a policy and research center at United Way; 2) developing nonprofit capacity; and, 3) issuing requests for proposals for grant funding. The City would increase United Ways funding from $1.75 million to $3.35 million to include the following select programs:
Grants for eligible and qualified nonprofit organizationsare intended to help close the racial wealth gap, address the impacts of urban renewal, and advance education-related deliverables.
We are honored to be chosen by the City of Providence as its partner for this important work, which is in perfect alignment of our mission at United Way and the commitment to building racial equity we bring to our state each and every day, said Cortney Nicolato, President and CEO of United Way of Rhode Island. As we have done for nearly a century, we understand the great responsibility of administering public funds and being good stewards of those dollars. We look forward to engaging the community to facilitate investments with the potential to create real, positive impacts for families across our capital city.
Under this contract, United Way would be the fiscal agent and program managers for the above listed programs, offering technical support and opportunities for community engagement. The City would be responsible for ensuring United Way meets contractual obligations and spending is compliant with federal law.
In 2021, the City of Providence received $166 million in American Rescue Plan Act funding. Per federal law, these funds must be allocated by the end of 2024 and spent by the end of 2026. Of the $166 million, $10 million was allocated to the COVID-19 Equities Program, which was created following the guidance of the Providence Municipal Reparations Commission. To date, $275,000 of the original $10 million has been spent, $1.75 million previously allocated to United Way and an additional $1.6 million is being proposed for reallocation to United Way. The City will directly administer the remaining $6.3 millionin the COVID-19 Equities Program. Overall, none of the initiatives outlines in the COVID-19 Equities Program have changed and their respective funding amounts have not changed.
The Board of Contract and Supply agenda is now available online.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, people 50 years and older in a UK cohort experienced significant cognitive declineeven if they were never infected, reveals a study published in The Lancet Healthy Longevity.
University of Exeter researchers analyzed neuropsychologic data from 3,142 participants aged 50 and older before the pandemic (March 2019 to February 2020) and during the pandemic's first (March 2020 to February 2021) and second (March 2021 to February 2022) years. The average participant age was 67.5 years.
In the first pandemic year, executive function and working memory were significantly worse across the cohort (effect size, 0.15 for executive function and 0.51 for working memory) and in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI; effect size, 0.13 and 0.40) or a history of COVID-19 (effect size, 0.24 and 0.46). In the second year, impaired working memory persisted across the cohort (effect size, 0.47).
Risk factors included less exercise (P = 0.0049; executive function) and increased alcohol use (P = 0.049; working memory) across the whole cohort, as well as depression (P = 0.011; working memory) in those who tested positive for COVID-19 and loneliness (P = 0.0038; working memory) in those with MCI.
In the second year, less exercise continued to affect executive function across the cohort, and associations persisted between worsened working memory and increased alcohol use (P = 0.0040), loneliness (P = 0.042), and depression (P = 0.014) in those with MCI and reduced exercise (P = 0.0029), loneliness (P = 0.031) and depression (P = 0.036) in those who had COVID-19.
Risk factors included less exercise and increased alcohol useacross the whole cohort, as well as depression in those who tested positive for COVID-19 and lonelinessin those with mild cognitive impairment.
"It is now more important than ever to make sure we are supporting people with early cognitive decline, especially because there are things they can do to reduce their risk of dementia later on," lead author Anne Corbett, PhD, said in a University of Exeter press release.
In a related commentary, Dorina Cadar, PhD, of University College London, said, "Looking back, COVID-19 has revealed the astonishing vulnerability of our societies, but also the lack of strategy and organisation from so many governments worldwide, and our shared fragility when confronted with infections."
Company Logo
Dublin, Nov. 03, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Cleanroom Consumables Market: Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2023-2028" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
The global cleanroom consumables market has experienced robust growth, with the market size reaching US$ 4.1 Billion in 2022. Looking ahead, analysts anticipate the market to achieve a valuation of US$ 5.6 Billion by 2028, reflecting a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% during the period from 2023 to 2028.
Cleanroom consumables are essential components crafted from top-quality raw materials designed to be worn in controlled environments with low impurities, such as dust, microorganisms, and chemical vapors. These consumables play a critical role in safeguarding products and processes from contamination stemming from individuals and their garments working within cleanrooms. Characterized by their washability, reusability, lightweight nature, skin-friendliness, and resistance to shrinkage, cleanroom consumables are available in a wide range of sizes, fabrics, and colors to cater to diverse client requirements. They find extensive applications in hospitals, medical colleges, research laboratories, as well as pharmaceutical and chemical industries worldwide.
Cleanroom Consumables Market Trends:
The burgeoning demand for enhanced quality and safety in healthcare products has emerged as a driving force behind the global demand for cleanroom consumables. Governments in numerous countries are introducing favorable regulations that promote the utilization of cleanroom consumables in the healthcare sector. This, coupled with the increasing demand for sterilized pharmaceutical formulations and advancements in medical equipment, is propelling market growth.
The sudden onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated the demand for cleanroom consumables, including goggles, gloves, and gowns, presenting lucrative opportunities for industry leaders. Key players in the sector are actively involved in regulatory approvals, training and development, as well as strategic acquisitions and collaborations with other companies. They are also intensifying research and development (R&D) efforts to introduce innovative products, which are expected to drive market expansion.
Story continues
Key Market Segmentation:
The comprehensive market report offers insights into various market segments:
Breakup by Product:
Breakup by Application:
Breakup by End User:
Breakup by Region:
North America (United States, Canada)
Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Others)
Europe (Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, Others)
Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Others)
Middle East and Africa
Competitive Landscape:
The report includes an analysis of the competitive landscape, featuring profiles of key market players, including Ansell Ltd., Berkshire Corporation, Contec Inc., Dupont De Nemours Inc., EcoLab Inc., ITW Texwipe (Illinois Tool Works Inc.), Kimberly-Clark Corporation, Km Act Corp., Micronclean Ltd., Micronova Manufacturing Inc., Steris Corporation, and Valutek Inc.
Key Questions Answered in This Report:
How has the global cleanroom consumables market performed to date, and what are the future growth prospects?
What is the impact of COVID-19 on the global cleanroom consumables market?
Which regions are the key markets for cleanroom consumables?
What are the major product segments driving market growth?
What applications are driving the demand for cleanroom consumables?
Who are the key players in the global cleanroom consumables market?
What factors drive and challenge the industry?
What is the competitive landscape and the degree of competition in the market?
Key Attributes:
Report Attribute
Details
No. of Pages
148
Forecast Period
2022 - 2028
Estimated Market Value (USD) in 2022
$4.1 Billion
Forecasted Market Value (USD) by 2028
$5.6 Billion
Compound Annual Growth Rate
5.1%
Regions Covered
Global
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/dgavpd
About ResearchAndMarkets.com ResearchAndMarkets.com is the world's leading source for international market research reports and market data. We provide you with the latest data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top companies, new products and the latest trends.
COVID-19 hospitalizations in Lancaster County remain significantly higher than mid-summer, but are nowhere near the tally during the height of the pandemic.
During the week ending Oct. 28, 20 new people were hospitalized in the county with COVID-19, a bit lower than Septembers peak of 34 and also down from Octobers peak of 27. That compares with two new people hospitalized during the second week of July, and 14 during the first full week of September. These numbers are from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Though new weekly hospitalizations were in the single digits during much of the summer, they sharply increased in August, jumping from six hospitalizations in the week ending Aug. 5 to 19 in the week ending Aug. 26.
The CDC and the state of Pennsylvania no longer track COVID-19 cases, so deaths and new weekly hospitalizations are some of the best indicators of virus levels in a community.
None of this years weekly numbers compare to the pandemics peak when new weekly hospitalizations in the county reached 233 during January 2022.
Since Sept. 9, Lancaster County has seen 12 deaths from COVID-19, bringing this years total to 94. These numbers, from the Pennsylvania Department of Health, are released on the last Wednesday of every month. The most recent data ends with Oct. 25.
Lancaster General Hospital has seen an increase in the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, according to Lancaster General Health chief physician executive Dr. Michael Ripchinski.
While there were around five COVID patients per day at that hospital back in July, mid-to-late October saw around 15 to 20, Ripchinski said by email. These numbers show the total number of COVID-19 patients in that hospital on one day, a different metric than new weekly hospitalizations.
And of these patients, few require oxygen support, Ripchinski said.
Recent COVID-19 tests administered to the community by LGH have been around 13 to 16% positive, but the number of people taking these tests is low, Ripchinski said.
As LNP | LancasterOnlinereported in October, Ripchinski said the virus will likely become more prevalent during late fall and winter. At an Oct. 19 press conference, he urged people to get the updated COVID-19 vaccine.
Vaccine induced immunity is more effective and safer than developing immunity from infection, Ripchinski said.
Success! An email has been sent to with a link to confirm list signup.
Error! There was an error processing your request.
Forty percent of US parents who worked from home during the COVID-19 pandemic report experiencing more parenting stress, compared with 27% of those who worked onsite, according to a research letter published today in JAMA Network Open.
Northwestern University researchers surveyed 825 employed parents from all 77 neighborhoods in Chicago from May to July 2022 about their work situation in the first 2 years of the pandemic. Respondents were adult parents of at least one child living at home. Of the parents, 62.5% worked from home, and 52.5% were women.
The study period included 13 months of remote instruction in Chicago schools,forcing many parents to manage work and schooling at home, the authors noted.
"The COVID-19 pandemic changed work arrangements with more frequent work from home, or telework," they wrote. "Parents are a unique subset of employees, yet little is known about how telework is related to the health of working parents."
A higher percentage of remote-working parents were White (45.0%) than Black (14.6%) or Hispanic (28.5%), and a higher proportion of parents who worked onsite were Black (26.0%) or Hispanic (41.9%) than White (23.8%).
After adjustment, teleworking parents had greater odds of parenting stress than those who worked onsite (adjusted odds ratio [aOR],1.88)especially among fathers (aOR, 2.33 vs 1.53 for mothers), but there was no difference in respondents' general health status (aOR,1.23) or improved mental health (aOR,1.14).
Strategies to support parents who telework, such as promoting work schedule autonomy and employee assistance programs,may have important health implications for parents and children.
"For parents, especially fathers, telework during the COVID-19 pandemic offered a new opportunity to spend time with their children," the researchers wrote. "Our findings suggest teleworking may also add to parenting stress or that parents with more stressful parenting situations preferentially select telework arrangements."
The researchers noted that legislation has been proposed to both expandand limitremote work options. "Therefore, it is crucial that researchers, health professionals, and policymakers continue to assess the associations among telework, parenting stress, and parent health," they said.
"Strategies to support parents who telework, such as promoting work schedule autonomy and employee assistance programs,may have important health implications for parents and children."
The COVID-19 pandemic caused Americans collective trauma, which predisposes to mental illness and chronic illnesses, according to a new online survey from the American Psychological Association (APA).
The Harris Poll surveyed 3,185 US adults nationwide for the Stress in America 2023 report from August 4 to 26.
"While the early pandemic lockdowns may seem like the distant past, the aftermath remains," APA Chief Executive Officer Arthur Evans Jr, PhD, said. "We cannot ignore the fact that we have been significantly changed by the loss of more than one million Americans, as well as the shift in our workplaces, school systems and culture at large."
Respondents aged 35 to 44 years reported the most significant jump in chronic conditions since the pandemic began (58% in 2023, up from 48% in 2019). The same age-group also reported the greatest increase in mental illness (45% vs 31%), most often citing money (77% vs 65%) and the economy (74% vs 51%) as contributing factors.
Respondents aged 18 to 34 had the highest rate of mental illness in 2023, at 50%.
Although 66% of respondents said they were diagnosed as having a chronic illness, 81% rated their physical health as good, very good, or excellent. Similarly, while 37% of adults said they had a mental illness diagnosisan increase of 5 percentage points over 2019's 32%81% said their mental health was good, very good, or excellent. The most common diagnoses were anxiety disorder (24%) and depression (23%).
Women reported a higher average level of stress than men and were more likely than men to rate their stress levels at 8 to 10.
A total of 67% of adults said they didn't think their problems were "bad enough" to cause stress, because others have bigger problems. When asked why they don't seek treatment, adults' top reasons were the belief that therapy isn't effective (40%) and a lack of time (39%) or insurance (37%). Yet 47% said they wish they had help to manage their stress, and 62% said they don't talk about their stress because they dont want to burden others.
A quarter of respondents (24%) rated their average stress level at 8 to 10 on a scale of 1 to 10, in which 1 means little or no stress. In 2019, 19% gave this rating. The rise was noted across all age-groups except for those 65 and older: 34% aged 18 to 34 reported this stress level in 2023 (+8 percentage points from 2019); 31% aged 35 to 44 (+10 percentage points); 22% aged 45 to 64 (+4 percentage points); and 9% aged 65+ (-1 percentage point).
Women reported a higher average level of stress than men (5.3 vs 4.8 out of 10) and were more likely than men to rate their stress levels at 8 to 10 (27% vs 21%).Among respondents who reported experiencing at least one act of discrimination, 36% attributed it to their age, 28% to their race, and 22% to their gender.
The proportion of parents of children younger than 18 who ranked their average stress level at 8 to 10 rose to 33% in 2023 from 24% in 2019. Parents were more likely than other adults to report having more financial problems in 2023 than in 2019 (46% vs 34%), that money caused family arguments (58% vs 30%), and that they are more likely to feel consumed by worry over money (66% vs 39%).
Parents were also more likely to say that their stress is completely overwhelming on most days (48% vs 26%), they are stressed to the point of numbness (42% vs 22%), or are so stressed they can't function (41% vs 20%).
"Stress affects all systems of the body, so it is crucial that Americans know the serious impacts of stress and what they can do to reduce the effect of stressors in their life, as well as receive help from their health care providers, workplace and support systems to prevent further health crises," Evans said.
And the trauma hasn't originated only from COVID-19. Global conflict, racism and racial injustice, inflation, and climate changerelated disasters are also weighing heavy on the American psyche, an APA news release said.
Long-term stress is a risk factor for mental illness, may increase sensitivity to daily hassles, can affect life outlook and goals, and alter the body's physiological response to stressors, the APA said.
"Coping with long-term stress requires a different set of skills than adjusting to temporary stressors," the APA noted. "Ongoing stress can accumulate, causing inflammation, wearing on the immune system, and increasing the risk of a host of ailments, including digestive issues, heart disease, weight gain, and stroke."
Dive Brief:
Medtech companies have benefited from elevated procedure volumes in recent quarters as providers work through a backlog of cases left over from when hospitals postponed non-emergency care to keep beds open for COVID-19 patients.
But it is unclear how long the boost will last.
On Intuitive Surgicals third-quarter earnings call, executives said uncertainty about the duration of pent-up demand is factored into the companys procedure growth forecast range for 2023. The surgical robot makers U.S. procedure growth of 17% in the latest quarter reflected a smaller benefit from patient backlogs than in the first half of the year, the company said.
Heart valve specialist Edwards Lifesciencescontinues to work to get patients off the sidelinesfollowing the rockiness of the COVID period,Larry Wood, group president of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and surgical structural heart, said on the companys third-quarter call.Edwards has posted three straight quarters of double-digit sales growth, Wood noted, after an analyst pointed out that TAVRprocedures were growing faster before the pandemic.
Needhams analysis shows Google searches for 20 U.S. elective procedures have been trending upward since the start of the pandemic, peaking this spring above 115% of pre-COVID levels. After a pullback in the third quarter, the figure climbed to 112% of pre-pandemic levels in the latest week.
Searches in the U.S. for orthopedic procedures in the week ended Oct. 28 were at 114% of pre-COVID levels, general surgery searches were at 103%, and cardiovascular procedure searches were at 107%, Needham found.
Moderna (MRNA) missed Wall Street expectations in the third quarter earnings report released Thursday, as it continues rightsizing the company and putting its COVID-19 vaccine windfall to work. But there's good news ahead: The company expects to finally break even in 2026.
As Moderna moves away from pandemic-level vaccine sales, the company has been busy reducing its manufacturing and infrastructure to match current demand. In addition, it has had to pivot to focus on advancing its pipeline, proving the mRNA platform has potential beyond COVID success.
Moderna now expects its annual sales to be on the lower end of its guidance, at $6 billion, from COVID-19 vaccine sales, which totaled $1.8 billion in the third quarter.
"The volume is not as significant as it once was during the pandemic much of that was to be expected, but it's even probably a little lighter than we thought," said CFO Jamey Mock in an interview with Yahoo Finance Thursday.
The vaccine remains the company's only commercial product to date, as it continues rolling submissions for approval for its RSV vaccine and awaits Phase 3 clinical trial results for its combination COVID and flu vaccine.
In the third quarter, we significantly resized our manufacturing infrastructure to make our COVID-19 franchise profitable for 2024 and beyond. We are preparing to launch multiple products through 2025, including our RSV vaccine. We expect to return to sales growth in 2025 and, through disciplined investment, to break even in 2026," said CEO Stphane Bancel.
For Q3, the company reported a $3.6 billion net loss, including a write-down for unused vaccine doses, and a $9.53 earnings per share loss. Simultaneously, the company reported its market share of COVID doses is 45% year to date in 2023, compared to 36% in 2022.
Mock reiterated Bancel's confidence, telling Yahoo Finance the company can break even by 2026 based on its pipeline and "disciplined investments." That will be largely achieved internally as opposed to looking to fill the pipeline through mergers and acquisitions.
Story continues
"We understand what investors are concerned about" with regard to breaking even and the pipeline, Mock said, adding that he believes the late-stage pipeline has organic growth promise.
The company traded down about 8% Thursday, and the stock is down more than 60% year to date.
Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. Follow Anjalee on all social media platforms @AnjKhem.
For the latest earnings reports and analysis, earnings whispers and expectations, and company earnings news, click here
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
Relatively speaking, 2023 has been the least dramatic year of COVID living to date. It kicked off with the mildest pandemic winter on record, followed by more than seven months of quietude. Before hospitalizations started to climb toward their September mini-spike, the country was in the longest period weve had without a peak during the entire pandemic, Shaun Truelove, an infectious-disease modeler at Johns Hopkins University, told me. So maybe its no surprise that, after a year of feeling normalish, most American adults simply arent that worried about getting seriously sick this coming winter.
They also are not particularly eager to get this years COVID shot. According to a recent CDC survey, just 7 percent of adults and 2 percent of kids have received the falls updated shot, as of October 14; at least another 25 percent intends to nab a shot for themselves or their children but havent yet. And even those lackluster stats could be an overestimate, because theyre drawn from the National Immunization Surveys, which is done by phone and so reflects the answers of people willing to take federal surveyors calls. Separate data collected by the CDC, current as of October 24, suggest that only 12 million Americansless than 4 percent of the populationhave gotten the new vaccine, according to Dave Daigle, the associate director for communications at the CDCs Center for Global Health.
CDC Director Mandy Cohen still seems optimistic that the country will come close to the uptake rates of last autumn, when 17 percent of Americans received the updated bivalent vaccine. But for that to happen, Americans would have to maintain or exceed their current immunization clipwhich Gregory Poland, a vaccine expert at Mayo Clinic, told me he isnt betting on. (Already, hes worried about the possible dampening effect of new data suggesting that getting flu and COVID shots simultaneously might slightly elevate the risk of stroke for older people.) As things stand, the United States could be heading into the winter with the fewest people recently vaccinated against COVID-19 since the end of 2020, when most people didnt yet have the option to sign up at all.
This winter is highly unlikely to reprise that first one, when most of the population had no immunity, tests and good antivirals were scarce, and hospitals were overrun. Its more likely to be an encore of this most recent winter, with its relative calm. But thats not necessarily a comfort. If that winter was a kind of uncontrolled experiment in the damage COVID could do when unchecked, this one could codify that experiment into a too-complacent routine that cements our tolerance for sufferingand leaves us vulnerable to more.
To be fair, this years COVID vaccines have much been harder to get. With the end of the public-health emergency, the private sector is handling most distributiona transition thats made for a more uneven, chaotic rollout. In the weeks after the updated shot was cleared for use, many pharmacies were forced to cancel vaccination appointments or turn people away because of inadequate supply. At one point, Jacinda Abdul-Mutakabbir, an infectious-disease pharmacist at UC San Diego, whos been running COVID and flu vaccination in her local community, was emailing her countys office three times a week, trying to get vaccine vials. Even when vaccines have been available, many people have been dismayed to find they need to pay out of pocket for the cost. (Most people, regardless of insurance status, are supposed to be able to receive a free COVID-19 vaccine.)
Read: Falls vaccine routine didnt have to be this hard
The vaccine is now easier to find, in many places; insurance companies, too, seem to be fixing the kinks in compensation. But Abdul-Mutakabbir told me she worries that many of the people who were initially turned away may simply never come back. You lose that window of opportunity, she told me. Even people who havent gotten their autumn shot may be hesitating to try if they expect access to be difficult, as the emergency physician Jeremy Faust points out in his Inside Medicine newsletter.
Plus, because the rollout started later this year than in 2022, many people ended up infected before they could get vaccinated and may now be holding off on the shotor skipping it entirely. And some Americans have simply decided against getting the shot. The CDC reported that 38 percent dont plan to vaccinate themselves or their children; earlier this fall, more than half of respondents in a Kaiser Family Foundation poll said they probably or definitely wouldnt be signing up themselves or their kids. More than 40 percent of those polled by KFF remain doubtful, too, that COVID shots are safedwarfing the numbers of people worried about flu shots, and even about RSV shots, which are newer than their COVID counterparts.
The consequences of low COVID-vaccine uptake are hard to parse. This year, like last year, most Americans have been vaccinated, infected, or both, many of them quite recently. COVIDs average severity has, for many months, been at a relatively consistent low. The last catastrophic SARS-CoV-2 variantone immune-evasive enough to spark a massive wave of sickness, death, and long COVIDarrived two years ago. Barring another feat of viral evolution, perhaps these dynamics have reached something like a stable state, Justin Lessler, an infectious-disease modeler at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told me. So maybe the most likely scenario is a close repeat of last winter: a rise in hospitalizations and deaths thats ultimately far more muted than any earlier in the outbreak. And the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which Lessler co-leads alongside Truelove and a large cohort of other researchers, projects that next year will look a lot like this year, whatever this year ends up looking like, Lessler said.
But predictability is distinct from peace. COVID has still been producing roughly twice the annual mortality that flu does; roughly 17,000 people are being hospitalized for the disease each week. SARS-CoV-2 infections also still carry a risk, far higher than flus, of debilitating some people for years. And I do think were going to experience a winter increase, Truelove told me. Even if this years COVID-vaccine uptake were to climb above 30 percent, models suggest that January hospitalizations could rival numbers from early 2023. Go much lower than that, and several scenarios point to outcomes being worse.
Based on the limited data available, at least one trend is mildly encouraging: Adults 75 and older, the age demographic most vulnerable to COVID and that stands to benefit most from annual shots, also have the highest vaccine uptake so far, at about 20 percent. At the same time, Katelyn Jetelina, the epidemiologist who writes the popular Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter, points out that CDC data suggest that only 8 percent of nursing-home residents are up to date on their COVID shots. That is what keeps me up at night, Jetelina told me. Early National Immunization Surveys data also suggest that uptake is lagging among other groups that might fare less well against COVIDamong them, rural populations, Hispanic people, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, the uninsured, and people living below the poverty line.
Last winter was widely considered to be a bullet dodged, and the reactions to the coming months may be similar: At least its no longer that bad. Since the winter of Omicron, the country has been living with lower vaccine uptake while experiencing lower COVID peaks. But those lower peaks shouldnt undermine the importance of vaccines. Infection-induced immunity, past vaccinations, improvements in treatments, and other factors have combined to make COVID look like a gentler disease. Add more recent vaccination to that mix, and many of those gains would likely be enhanced, keeping immunity levels up without the risks of illness or passing the virus to someone else.
Read: The one thing everyone should know about fall COVID vaccines
As relatively okay as this past year-plus has been, it could have been better. Missed vaccinations still translate into more days spent suffering, more chronic illnesses, more total lives lostan enormous burden to put on an already stressed health-care system, Jetelina told me. For the flu, more Americans act as if they understand this relationship: This year, as of November 1, nearly 25 percent of American adults, and more than 20 percent of American kids, have gotten their fall flu shot. Most of the experts I spoke with would be surprised to see such rates for COVID vaccines even at the end of this rollout.
If last winter was a preview of future COVID winters, our behaviors, too, could predict the patterns well follow going forward. We may not be slammed with the next terrible variant this year, or the next, or the next. When one does arrive, though, as chances are it will, the precedent were setting now may leave us particularly unprepared. At that point, people may be years out from their most recent COVID shot; whole swaths of babies and toddlers may have yet to receive their first dose. Some of us may still have some immunity from recent infections, surebut it wont be the same as dosing up right before respiratory-virus season with protection thats both reliable and safe. Systems once poised to deliver COVID vaccines en masse may struggle to meet demand. Or maybe the public will be slow to react to the new emergency at all. Our choices now will be self-reinforcing, Poland told me. We still wont be doomed to repeat our first full COVID winter. But we may get closer than anyone cares to endure.
