Category: Corona Virus

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Coronavirus Omicron variant, vaccine, and case numbers in the United States: April 1, 2022 – Medical Economics

April 2, 2022

Total vaccine doses distributed: 702,957,265

Patients whove received the first dose: 255,534,750

Patients whove received the second dose: 217,639,435

% of population fully vaccinated: 65.6%

% of infections tied to the Omicron Variant: 100%

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Coronavirus Omicron variant, vaccine, and case numbers in the United States: April 1, 2022 - Medical Economics

Most Americans no longer wear masks in public; vaccinated pregnant women have less protection from the virus – cleveland.com

April 2, 2022

CLEVELAND, Ohio Most Americans have stopped wearing masks in public; and pregnant women vaccinated against COVID-19 are more likely to get breakthrough infection, a new study suggests.

Cleveland.com is rounding up some of the most notable coronavirus news making headlines online. Heres what you need to know for Friday, April 1.

Most Americans have dropped mask wearing, new poll finds

A majority of Americans are not wearing masks in public, according to a new national poll.

The Associated Press and the National Opinion Research Center poll found just 44% of adult respondents still wear a mask often or always when in public. Thats down from 65% of adults who said they wore masks in a January AP-NORC poll.

The pollsters surveyed 1,082 U.S. adults between March 17-21.

In February 2021, about 82% of those polled said they were always or often wearing a mask in public, and more than 75% were staying away from large groups.

Vaccinated pregnant women have less protection from the virus than other patients, study suggests

Vaccinated pregnant women are nearly twice as likely to get a breakthrough COVID-19 infection as those who are not pregnant, suggests a new study.

The new study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that even pregnant women who are fully vaccinated tend to have less protection from the virus than many other patients with significant medical problems.

The analysis, based on medical records of nearly 14 million American patients since COVID-19 vaccines became available, found that pregnant women who are vaccinated have the greatest risk of developing COVID-19 among a dozen medical conditions, including being an organ transplant recipient and having cancer.

COVID-19 increases the risk of pregnancy complications, such as premature births.

Patients with COVID-19, flu risk severe illness and death, study suggests

Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and influenza have much higher risk of severe illness and death than those who have COVID-19 alone, a new United Kingdom study suggests.

We found that the combination of COVID-19 and flu viruses is particularly dangerous. This will be important as many countries decrease the use of social distancing and containment measures, said study co-author Kenneth Baillie, a professor of experimental medicine at the University of Edinburgh, in a university news release.

The U.K. study looked at data from nearly 7,000 adults in the U.K. who were hospitalized with COVID-19 between February 2020 and December 2021. These patients were also tested for other respiratory viruses.

The 227 patients who had both COVID-19 and the flu were over four times more likely to require breathing support and 2.4 times more likely to die than those with COVID-19 alone, according to the study.

The Lancet recently published the findings. The CDC website explains the similarities and differences between COVID-19 and the flu.

J&J shot plus Pfizer or Moderna is less protective, study suggests

Americans who received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine have less protection against serious illness and hospitalizations than those who got the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna shots, suggests a recent CDC study.

Even combining a J&J vaccine with a booster of either J& J, or one of either Pfizer or Moderna both messenger RNA vaccines wasnt as strong as three shots of Pfizer or Moderna in preventing emergency room visits or hospitalizations, according to a CDC report.

About 17 million Americans got the J&J shot, according to federal statistics.

The latest data suggest J& J vaccine recipients should get a booster with one of the messenger RNA vaccines, and consider a second messenger RNA booster for the greatest protection.

The CDC analyzed the results of mix-and-match vaccine-and-booster combinations during four months when the highly transmissible omicron variant was dominant. The study is important because vaccine effectiveness data on the mix-and-match booster strategies in the real world has been limited.

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Most Americans no longer wear masks in public; vaccinated pregnant women have less protection from the virus - cleveland.com

Corona Virus Updates | District Pune ,Government of …

March 31, 2022

SubjectDateSubjectDateBreak The Chain Order Railway Local Pass Order 17/08/2021Break The Chain Order dated 15.08.2021 15/08/2021Levels of restriction for breaking the chain 08/08/2021Levels of restrictions for breaking the chain 05/06/2021Break The Chain order dated 31/05/2021 31/05/2021Break The chain order dated 28/05/2021 28/05/2021Break the chain order dated 13/05/2021 13/05/2021Break The Chain order dated 29/04/2021 29/04/2021Break the chain order dated 22-04-2021 22/04/2021Regarding Ram Navami, Hanuman Jayanti and Mahavir Jayanti Celebrations 20/04/2021Break the Chain order dated 20.04.2021 20/04/2021Break the Chain order dated 14/04/2021 14/04/2021Break The Chain Order dated 13/04/2021 13/04/2021Medical oxygen supply control order 12/04/2021Medical oxygen supply control committee 12/04/2021Remedisivor Controlling Officer appointment 11/04/2021PMC bed management control order 09/04/2021Break The Chain Revised Order. 9.04.2021 09/04/2021Break The Chain order dated 05/04/2021 05/04/2021Break the Chain Order no. 2 dated 05/04/2021 05/04/2021Break The Chain Order 04/04/2021Order by District Collector 02/04/2021Emergency outage proposed on 132kv Chinchwad-Chakan Line 06/04/2021Order dated 02-04-2021 02/04/2021Control Room Order 01/04/2021Committee for oxygen supply 30/03/2021COVID-19 SOP 12/03/2021COVID-19 SOP Implementation 18/02/2021COVID-19 SOP Implementation 21/02/2021Regarding transport of oxygen supplying vehicles in Pune district (607 KB) 12/09/2020District Level Committee to monitor supply of oxygen in hospitals (943 KB) 11/09/2020Fine for spitting and not wearing masks (5 MB) 28/08/2020COVID-19 management Nodal Officer Orders (4 MB) 08/07/2020Complete Lock down from 14 July 2020 to 23 July 2020 (9 MB) 13/07/2020Mission Begin Again Phase wise releasing lockdown (3 MB) 30/06/2020 Permission to open Restaurants, hotels, guest houses ,lodges etc. (911 KB) 07/07/2020Fine for spitting and not wearing masks (535KB) 25/06/2020Permission for Hair Salons, Beauty Parlors and Spa (576 KB) 26/06/2020Opening the Setu centers, Maha e-seva Centers and Aadhar centers in Pune district (834 KB) 16/06/2020Permission for company staff (526 KB) 25/06/2020Regarding cooperative housing societies and other housing societies (679 KB) 10/06/2020Containment zone in industrial area (288 KB) 09/06/2020No entry for the tourists at Bhushi Dam (Maval) and other Dams (831 KB) 07/06/2020Facilities to be provided at various courts w.r.t. COVID-19 (1 MB) 07/06/2020Restriction under 144(1)(3) in rural area of Pune district (1 MB) 01/06/2020Damage due to Nisarg Cyclone(464 KB) 07/06/2020Notification regarding Mission Begin Again (9 MB) 31/05/2020Mission Begin Again- Guidelines (638 KB) 31/05/2020Revised notification on Restriction on Charges by Private Hospital (6 MB) 21/05/2020Revised containment zone in Pune District (4 MB) 21/05/2020Opening the Joint Registrar and Sub Registrar offices in Pune district (988KB) 15/05/2020COVID-19 Grievance Redressal Committee for grievances of bills of private hospitals (1 MB) 16/05/2020Providing petrol to the permitted agencies (552 KB) 06/05/2020Regarding home quarantine of migrants from other states and districts 11/05/2020Limited permission for repair works before rainy season (1 MB) 02/05/2020Containment zone in Muncipal Corprations/Nagar Parishads/Zilla Parishad (7.5 MB) 04/05/2020Containment Zone in Pune District (2 MB) 20/04/2020SOP related to Aquaculture farmers and fish workers (1 MB) 24/04/2020Regarding permissions and passes for industries (441 KB) 13/04/2020 Extension to all the previous orders (286 KB) 14/04/2020Payments to the beneficiaries of Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (499 KB) 10/04/2020Regarding disobeying any regulation or order (609 KB) 10/04/2020Wearing masks to avoid COVID-19 infections (783 KB) 08/04/2020Extension to previous orders until next order (649 KB) 31/03/2020Preventive measures against COVID-19 (540 KB) 30/03/2020Restrictions as per 144(1)(3) in rural area (2.4 MB) 30/03/2020Regarding services of private clinics, OPDS and Hospitals (577 KB) 27/03/2020Essential Bus Services (2 MB) 27/03/2020Guidelines for various Govt. Ministries, Departments and other institutions (3 MB) 24/03/2020Essential Services (226 KB) Order regarding religious places of worship (516 KB) 24/03/2020Procedure for CSR help (6 MB) 24/03/2020Lockdown orders- Maharashtra State (772 KB) 23/03/2020Amendment to Lockdown order (6 MB) 24/03/2020Pune District Curfew extends till 22.03.2020- 5.00 AM 22/03/2020Closure Of/Restrictions On Industries in Pune District (1 MB) 22/03/2020Preventive measures to be taken by controlling officers for home quarantined travelers (3 MB) 21/03/2020Pune city- Curfew extends till 23.03.2020- 5.00 AM (856 KB)

PCMC- Curfew extends till 23.03.2020- 5.00 AM (487 KB)

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Corona Virus Updates | District Pune ,Government of ...

Corona Virus Tracker COVID-19 WorldOfMeters.com

March 31, 2022

The coronavirus family has significant human and animal pathogens. At the end of December 2019, a novel coronavirus was recognized as the reason for a group of pneumonia cases of unidentified etiology in Wuhan, a city in the Hubei Province of China.

The novel coronavirus has rapidly become widespread, resulting in an epidemic throughout China, followed by a pandemia, an increasing number of cases in various countries throughout the world. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spread through large droplets produced during coughing and sneezing by symptomatic patients, as well as asymptomatic individuals before starting of their symptoms.

The incubation period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2) infection is assumed to be 14 days succeeding exposure, mostly around four to five days. Individuals of all ages may acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection, although middle age and older individuals are the majority. The usual clinical characteristics involve fever, dry cough, fatigue, sore throat, rhinorrhea, conjunctivitis headache, myalgia, dyspnea, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. Hence,there are no unique clinical features that yet dependably differentiate COVID-19 disease from other upper/lower airway viral infections. In a subgroup of cases, by the end of the first week, COVID-19 disease may develop to pneumonia, pulmonary failure and death. The aim is here to discuss the COVID-19 disease beginning from virology, epidemiology and continuing with clinical manifestations, diagnosis, its complications and to finish with available therapeutic options and conclusion

Clinical symptoms:

1. fever (certain cases may have a low-grade fever or normal temperature), dry cough, fatigue;2. with lung imaging findings;3. with normal or decreased leukocyte count, or decreased lymphocyte number during the early phase of the COVID-19 infection;4.no other infectious agents are found, entirely explaining the symptoms

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Corona Virus Tracker COVID-19 WorldOfMeters.com

Dallas County Reports a Total of 516 New Positive 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases and 20 Deaths, Including 225 Probable Cases and 90 New Cases…

March 31, 2022

As of 3/25/2022, a total of 350 confirmed and probable cases were reported in CDC week 11 (week ending 3/19/22), which is a weekly rate of 13.3 new cases per 100,000 residents.

As of the week ending 3/19/2022, about 81% of Dallas County residents age 12 years and older have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, including 98% of residents age 65 years and older; 86% of residents between 40-64 years of age; 78% of residents 25-39 years of age; 67% of residents 18-24 years of age; and 62% of residents 12-17 years of age. In the cities of Addison, Coppell, Highland Park, Irving, and Sunnyvale, greater than 92% of residents 18 years of age and older have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. In the cities of Cedar Hill, Desoto, Farmers Branch, Garland, Lancaster, and University Park, greater than 80% of residents 18 years of age and older have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

About 51.8% of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Week 10 were Dallas County residents who were not fully vaccinated. In Dallas County, 41,310 cases of COVID-19 breakthrough COVID-19 infections in fully vaccinated individuals have been confirmed to date, of which 3,734 (9.0%) were hospitalized and 630 have died due to COVID-19.

Of all Dallas County residents tested for COVID-19 by PCR during the week ending 3/19/2022 (CDC week 11), 2.3% of respiratory specimens tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. For week 11, area hospital labs have continued to report elevated numbers and proportions of respiratory specimens that are positive for other respiratory viruses by molecular tests: parainfluenza (3.73 %), rhinovirus/enterovirus (32.46%), and RSV (2.18%).

There are currently 19 active long-term care facility outbreaks. A cumulative total of 6,443 residents and 4,362 healthcare workers in long-term facilities in Dallas have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Of these, 1,326 have been hospitalized and 898 have died. About 16% of all deaths reported to date have been associated with long-term care facilities.

There have been 3 outbreaks of COVID-19 in a congregate-living facility (e.g. homeless shelters, group homes, and halfway homes) reported within the past 30 days. A cumulative total of 840 residents and 295 staff members in congregate-living facilities in Dallas have been diagnosed with COVID-19.

New cases are being reported as a daily aggregate, with more detailed data dashboards and summary reports updated on Friday evenings, available at: https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus/daily-updates.php

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Dallas County Reports a Total of 516 New Positive 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases and 20 Deaths, Including 225 Probable Cases and 90 New Cases...

Ukraine, Oscars slap, coronavirus & more: Whats trending today – cleveland.com

March 31, 2022

A look at some of the top headlines trending online today including the latest updates on Russias invasion of Ukraine, Will Smith and Chris Rock fallout, the coronavirus and much more.

Ukrainian president says defense is at a turning point (AP)

Russia keeps pounding Ukraine, fueling skepticism over Putins intentions as his war creates 4 million refugees (CBS)

Britain: Russian units suffering losses, forced to leave Ukraine to resupply (The Hill)

Biden could announce major release of oil reserves (NBC)

Federal probe into Hunter Bidens taxes intensifies, sources say (ABC)

COVID deaths up 40 percent worldwide as cases drop: WHO (The Hill)

Many people eligible for second booster shot dont need to race, experts say (NBC)

As FDA clears second COVID booster for adults 50 and over, questions remain over who will pay (CBS)

End of COVID may bring major turbulence for US health care (AP)

Will Smith refused to leave Oscars after slapping Chris Rock: Academy (AP)

Chris Rock publicly addresses Oscars incident for the first time (CNN)

Bruce Willis, diagnosed with aphasia, steps away from acting (AP)

Sopranos and Goodfellas Actor Paul Herman Dies on His 76th Birthday (People)

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Ukraine, Oscars slap, coronavirus & more: Whats trending today - cleveland.com

COVID cases drop everywhere. Where are the outbreaks? – Deseret News

March 31, 2022

Cases of the novel coronavirus are dropping everywhere across the globe even in regions where there have been recent outbreaks.

Driving the news: A World Health Organization report released Wednesday said that cases of the coronavirus have dropped across the world, including the Western Pacific region, where cases have been rising since winter, according to CBS News.

Yes, but: Deaths caused by the coronavirus have surged by 40% in the last week which is likely due to changes in how COVID-19 deaths were reported across the Americas and by newly adjusted figures from India, according to CBS News.

What they said: Data are becoming progressively less representative, less timely and less robust, WHO said, per ABC News. This inhibits our collective ability to track where the virus is, how it is spreading and how it is evolving: information and analyses that remain critical to effectively end the acute phase of the pandemic.

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COVID cases drop everywhere. Where are the outbreaks? - Deseret News

WHO urges countries to keep up COVID-19 testing and surveillance as the viral outbreak remains a global pandemic – MarketWatch

March 31, 2022

The World Health Organization said Wednesday its increasingly concerned at the reduction in COVID-19 testing, surveillance and overall monitoring among its member countries, reminding the public that the coronavirus is still circulating at high levels.

COVID-19 remains a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, and it is too early to reduce the quality of surveillance, the agency said in its weekly epidemiological update.

Data are becoming progressively less representative, less timely and less robust, as many countries start to behave as if the pandemic has reached an endemic phase, where the virus is still present but is no longer infecting so many people that its overwhelming healthcare systems.

Until we reach the end of the acute phase of the pandemic, countries must maintain sufficient epidemiologic surveillance to inform evidence-based operational decision-making on crucial parameters, including vaccination strategies, vaccine composition, use of therapeutics, and tailored and appropriate public health and social measures, said the update.

The global tally of new cases fell in the week through March 27, a welcome trend after it rose in the two preceding weeks. But global deaths climbed to more than 45,000, up 43% from a week earlier, although that might be due to changes in how they are defined in some countries in the Americas and Asia.

The WHO also offered another update on some of the recombinant variants of the virus, includingone that has been unofficially named deltacronbecause it combines features of the delta and omicron variants.

Just last week, the agency assigned that variant Pango lineage designation XD under the system used to name and track variants as they emerge. It reiterated that, for now, there is no new evidence to suggest XD is associated with higher transmissibility or more severe outcomes but said it would continue to keep close tabs on that and other variants.

See: U.S. average daily deaths from COVID fall below 800 to lowest level since mid-August, and FDA allows second booster shot for people 50 and older

The news comes a day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the BA.2 subvariant of omicron accounted for 55% of new U.S. cases in the week through Saturday. The subvariant is more infectious than the original omicron but appears to be no more lethal.

The average number of deaths in the U.S. fell again after dipping below 800 on Tuesday for the first time since omicron took hold,according to a New York Times tracker.

The seven-day average death tally stands at 716, down 42% from two weeks ago.

New cases are averaging 29,253, down 9% from two weeks ago, and hospitalizations are down 34% at an average of 17,464.

But cases have started to climb again in states in the Northeast and South, and the pace of improvement in places where they are falling has slowed.

Other COVID-19 news you should know about:

President Joe Biden was scheduled to deliver remarks later Wednesday on the rollout of a new website to offer Americans help in accessing vaccines, tests, treatments and masks, according to a White House official. Biden will outline the infrastructure and tools and the systems the government has put in place to help the country battle COVID.Biden is also expected to urge Congress to allocate the funding needed for the next part of the program and to highlight the risks if lawmakers fail to act.

See: Biden to receive second COVID vaccine booster shot: White House

A sharp rise in COVID deaths during Hong Kongs fifth wave has led to a shortage of coffins, the South China Morning Post reported. In some instances, coffins are understood to have been stolen or the subject of mix-ups in funeral homes.

Adagio Therapeutics Inc. ADGI, -8.07% said its experimental COVID-19 monoclonal antibody worked as a treatment and for pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis in a Phase 2/3 clinical trial. Adagio said it plans to seek authorization from the Food and Drug Administration in the second quarter of this year. The drug, adintrevimab, was put into clinical trials before the emergence of the omicron variant, the company said; however, Adagio noted that it then conducted a pre-specified exploratory analysis among a group of participants in the pre-exposure cohort, and when compared to placebo, a clinically meaningful reduction in cases of symptomatic COVID-19 was reported.

See now: BioNTech reports soaring earnings, revenue on COVID vaccine, plans $1.5 billion in buybacks

CureVac CVAC, +1.45% said it dosed the first participant in a Phase 1 clinical trial for the new mRNA COVID-19 vaccine its developing with GlaxoSmithKline GSK, +0.27% GSK, -0.49%. The study is being conducted in the U.S. and is set to enroll 210 adults. The company said it expects to have data in the second half of this year. Continued innovation and progress in the development of mRNA-based vaccines is a critical prerequisite to combat the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Klaus Edvardsen, CureVacs chief development officer, said in a news release.

Heres what the numbers say

The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 485.8 million on Tuesday, while the death toll rose above 6.13 million,according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

The U.S. leads the world with 80 million cases and 978,842 fatalities.

TheCenters for Disease Control and Preventions trackershows that 217.5 million people living in the U.S. are fully vaccinated, equal to 65.5% of the population. But just 97.4 million are boosted, equal to 44.8% of the vaccinated population.

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WHO urges countries to keep up COVID-19 testing and surveillance as the viral outbreak remains a global pandemic - MarketWatch

We are so over Covid-19 – CNN

March 31, 2022

1. More than 3 in 4 Americans (77%) support the relaxing of CDC guidelines on masking and social distancing in areas with low Covid rates.

3. Among that last group, more than 4 in 10 want there to be no future Covid regulations or mandates put in place.

What these polls makes clear is that, almost no matter what, most people do not want to go back to where we were three months ago, or a year ago or two years ago.

And it's also why no politician is going to be leaping to put any sort of mandate back in place, even if the Omicron subvariant produces a bump in cases nationwide. (Covid cases are rising in 13 states this week compared to last week, according to Johns Hopkins University.)

There's no question the highly contagious subvariant will continue to spread in the coming weeks.

But it's equally clear that the days of government-mandated mitigations -- primarily through mask mandates -- are over.

The Point: The pandemic feels like it's over for the majority of Americans. Even if the virus isn't quite done with us yet.

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We are so over Covid-19 - CNN

Opinion | We Study Virus Evolution. Here’s Where We Think the Coronavirus Is Going. – The New York Times

March 29, 2022

By Sarah Cobey, Jesse Bloom, Tyler Starr and Nathaniel Lash

Dr. Cobey studies the interaction of immunity, virus evolution and transmission at the University of Chicago. Dr. Bloom and Dr. Starr study virus evolution at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. Mr. Lash is a graphics editor for Opinion.

As scientists who study how viruses evolve, we are often asked about the future of the coronavirus. Will it go away? Get worse? Fade into the background of our lives? Become seasonal like the flu?

Heres what we know: The viruss Omicron variant was significantly more infectious and more resistant to vaccines than the original strain that first emerged in Wuhan, China. Theres no reason, at least biologically, that the virus wont continue to evolve. The coronavirus variants that have emerged thus far sample only a fraction of the genetic space that is most likely available for evolutionary exploration.

A virus like SARS-CoV-2 faces one overriding pressure: to become better at spreading. Viruses that cause more infections will be more successful. The virus can do this by becoming more contagious and by skirting around the immune system. This coronavirus has undergone several adaptations that make it better at spreading in humans.

But although many scientists, including us, expected SARS-CoV-2 would be under evolutionary pressure to transmit better, its been remarkable just how well the virus has responded to that pressure. Recent variants like Omicron and Delta are several times more transmissible than the strain that first spread around the globe in early 2020. Thats a huge increase, and makes SARS-CoV-2 more contagious than many other human respiratory viruses. These big jumps in contagiousness have played a major role in driving the pandemic so far.

Chart showing properties of certain SARS-CoV-2 variants. Along the X axis, reductions in antibody effectiveness for variants is shown. Along the Y axis are figures on how much more contagious the variant is compared to the original SARS-CoV-2.

How the coronavirus has changed

Comparing coronavirus variants to early 2020 strains.

Antibodies are

less effective

Estimated reduction in antibody effectiveness

How the coronavirus has mutated

Comparing coronavirus variants to early 2020 strains.

Antibodies are

less effective

Estimated reduction in antibody effectiveness

How the coronavirus has changed

Comparing coronavirus variants to early 2020 strains.

Antibodies are

less effective

Estimated reduction in antibody effectiveness

How much more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 can become is an open question, but there are limits. Even evolution is constrained: a cheetah cant evolve to be infinitely fast, and SARS-CoV-2 wont become infinitely transmissible.

Other viruses have reached plateaus in their ability to spread. Some respiratory viruses such as measles are more contagious than todays SARS-CoV-2. Others, such as influenza, are generally not as contagious as SARS-CoV-2. We dont know when this coronavirus will hit its transmissibility plateau, but it will happen eventually.

Viruses such as this one can also spread better by escaping immunity to prior variants. Early in the pandemic, few people had immunity to SARS-CoV-2. But now much of the world has antibodies from vaccination or prior infection. Because these antibodies can block infection, variants with mutations that skirt around them have an increasing advantage.

The importance of immune escape has become apparent with Omicron. Prior variants like Delta were only modestly able to sidestep antibodies, but Omicron has many mutations that reduce the ability of antibodies to recognize it. This, coupled with how contagious Omicron is, has enabled it to cause a huge wave of infections.

The fact that the virus developed the ability to infect people who had been vaccinated or previously infected shouldnt have been a surprise, but how it happened with Omicron certainly was. Evolution often proceeds stepwise, with new successful variants descended from recent successful ones. Thats why six months ago many scientists, including us, thought the next variant would descend from Delta, which was dominant at the time. But evolution defied our expectations, and we got Omicron, which has a huge number of mutations and isnt descended from Delta. Its not known exactly how the virus made the big evolutionary jump that led to Omicron, although many scientists (including us) suspect the variant may have emerged from someone who couldnt fight off the virus well, allowing it time to mutate.

Its impossible to say whether future variants will have more big Omicron-like jumps or more typical stepwise changes, but we are confident SARS-CoV-2 will continue to evolve to escape immunity.

While transmissibility of viruses does plateau at a certain point, other human viruses that escape immunity keep doing so. The influenza vaccine has been updated annually for decades to chase viral evolution, and some influenza viruses show no sign of slowing down. Immune escape is an endless evolutionary arms race, because the immune system can always make new antibodies and the virus has a vast set of mutations to explore in response. For instance, Omicron has just a tiny fraction of the many mutations that have been observed in SARS-CoV-2 or related bat viruses, which are in turn just a small fraction of what lab experiments suggest the virus could potentially explore.

Taking all this together, we expect SARS-CoV-2 will continue to cause new epidemics, but they will increasingly be driven by the ability to skirt around the immune system. In this sense, the future may look something like the seasonal flu, where new variants cause waves of cases each year. If this happens, which we expect it will, vaccines may need to be updated regularly similar to the flu vaccines unless we develop broader variant-proof vaccines.

And of course, how much all this matters for public health depends on how sick the virus makes us. That is the hardest prediction to make, because evolution selects for viruses that spread well, and whether that makes disease severity go up or down is mostly a matter of luck. But we do know that immunity reduces disease severity even when it doesnt fully block infections and spread, and immunity gained from vaccination and prior infections has helped blunt the impact of the Omicron wave in many countries. Updated or improved vaccines and other measures that slow transmission remain our best strategies for handling an uncertain evolutionary future.

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Opinion | We Study Virus Evolution. Here's Where We Think the Coronavirus Is Going. - The New York Times

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