COVID-19 Dashboard Q&A UT Business Intelligence

What is NOWCast?

It is difficult to reliably estimate COVID-19 trends for most of the 95 counties in Tennessee. Most counties are small and changes of only a few cases a day can mean dramatic changes in disease rates. Additionally, overworked labs and public health staff mean that data may not be updated every day. NOWcast uses modern statistical methods to estimate the trends that describe all these noisy data. The NOWcast groups together similar counties, then estimates recent changes in disease rates, and projects those changes forward. In nation-wide validation, the NOWcast accurately describes county-level trends one week into the future.

When the TN Department of Health needs to make corrections to a previous days data, they do it by putting a correcting entry in a later days numbers. For instance, if they overcount tests by 6,000 on Tuesday, then on Wednesday theyll put in -6,000 tests to correct the total. That can make it appears as though there were -6,000 tests administered on Wednesday, which obviously isnt possible. Its like correcting entries in financial accounts.

This indicates that data is not available or to mask divide by zero errors. This should only occur in counties with very few cases.

Per capita figures are derived by dividing a metrics value by the US Census Bureaus 2019 estimate of population in the area. Percent change per capita figures are an expression of the difference between today and last weeks values divided by last weeks value. This metric gives you a sense of how much a metric is changing in a way that controls for population.

Aggregate of students, faculty, and staff. Students counts are from the official Fall 2019 census based on home addresses and only include in-state students. Faculty and staff are any active employees that worked during the 2019 fiscal year (July 2018 June 2019) based on home addresses.

UT pop. residing in county last fall is also known as the UT Home Population (see question above). UT pop. in county at campus last fall is the aggregate count of students, faculty, and staff that were learning or working at the respective campus in the selected county (including out-of-state and international).

UT pop. residing in county last fall includes only students, faculty, and staff who have a permanent address in Tennessee. UT pop. in county at campus last fall includes students, faculty, and staff that were learning or working at the respective campus in the selected county (including out-of-state and international).

The Tennessee Department of Health does not provide testing and outcome metrics at a county level.

Hospitalizations are included in the active case counts as provided to the Tennessee Department of Health (recoveries, active, hospitalizations, and death cases are not exclusive categories).

Total case positivity rate is calculated over the past seven (7) days and therefore excludes any tests prior. Hovering over the total case positivity rate visual will give you a rolling trend of the positivity rate.

Total case positivity rate is calculated over the past seven (7) days and therefore excludes any tests prior. Tested per 100K and percent of population metrics include all data since data collection began for that county.

Cases of COVID-19 are reported to the Tennessee Department of Health (TDH) by clinicians and laboratories across the state. Initially, public health has fairly limited information about each person that has tested positive, such as their name, date of birth, and address. Public health professionals contact every case of COVID-19 statewide to interview them and learn more about their illness, exposures and contacts.

The information that TDH receives from clinicians and laboratories is sometimes incomplete or occasionally incorrect. As we work to publish updated case counts and basic information on our website as quickly as possible, sometimes this information changes as it is updated, and correct information is learned during the investigation. This may mean that a case can move from one county to another once the patients county of residence is confirmed during their interview.

If someone had COVID-19 when they died, they will be counted as a COVID-19 death. An exception to this is when a case died of something completely independent to COVID-19, like due to a car wreck.

Hospitalization data reflect the cumulative (total) number of cases that were ever hospitalized from COVID-19. It does not reflect the number of people currently hospitalized. Cases among Tennessee residents are counted by their county of residence. Residents of other states who were tested at Tennessee healthcare facilities or laboratories are counted as Out of TN.

Laboratory reports of positive cases are reported to metro and local health departments as soon as results are available. State numbers are updated at 2 p.m. CDT daily. There may be a lag in the reporting of cumulative numbers at the state level. Metro Health Departments may also include individuals from out of Tennessee in their localized counts if the case is remaining in that county throughout the course of their illness.

COVID-19 is a reportable condition in Tennessee. This means that clinicians and laboratories are required to report known cases to the Department of Health within 24 hours.

The Department of Health receives lab results (both positive and negative) from laboratories daily, and data from healthcare providers within 24 hours of identifying a case of COVID-19.

All Tennessee population figures used as comparisons in this dashboard are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureaus 2019 Vintage Housing and Population Estimates.

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COVID-19 Dashboard Q&A UT Business Intelligence