There are continued concerns that California could see a resurgence of COVID-19 over the coming weeks and months.
What that might look like, and how severe it may ultimately turn out to be, remains an open question.
Officials and experts largely agree that California is unlikely to see a surge that reaches the grim heights of last winters which overloaded hospitals with COVID-19 patients and killed tens of thousands statewide largely because many residents are already vaccinated.
But a spike in cases during the winter months, when temperatures fall and a packed holiday calendar might tempt residents to travel and mingle without taking appropriate precautions, is still a real possibility.
With cases ticking up in most parts of the state, we cannot let our guard down, and we cannot underestimate this deadly virus, Dr. Toms Aragn, director of the California Department of Public Health and the states public health officer, said in a statement Monday.
Heres a breakdown of where we are.
Health officials have been warning about a potential new rise in COVID-19 cases in California as seniors who got their shots last winter and havent received a booster shot may start to see their immunity wane, leaving them exposed to greater risk for infection and hospitalization, and as people gather indoors more with cooling weather and approaching holidays.
Demand for booster shots has fallen below expectations in California. And each infected Californian is increasingly spreading the coronavirus to more people.
As of Saturday, computer models estimated that every infected Californian was spreading the virus on average to 0.96 other people. If that number rises above 1, that will set the stage for further growth of the pandemic.
Officials are hopeful that strict vaccination requirements in some of Californias most populated areas will help slow the spread of cases in the winter. In Los Angeles, a new city rule generally requiring patrons to show proof of full vaccination to enter venues such as indoor restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, and hair and nail salons went into effect Monday but wont be enforced until after Thanksgiving.
Statewide, infections and COVID-19 hospitalizations have plateaued following months of decline.
But in some areas with lower vaccination rates, hospitalizations for COVID-19 have risen significantly since mid-October: by 35% in San Bernardino County and 27% in Fresno County. Even in Orange County, where vaccination rates are relatively high, COVID-19 hospitalizations are up by 29% over the same time period.
The San Joaquin Valley is reporting the states highest rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations; for every 100,000 residents, the region has 25 people hospitalized with COVID-19, compared with 15 per 100,000 in rural Northern California, 14 in the greater Sacramento area, eight in Southern California and four in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Some experts say a rate of five or greater is concerning.
In Southern California, San Bernardino and Riverside counties are reporting the worst hospitalization rates per 100,000 residents: 15 and 10, respectively. San Diego County is at eight, Orange County seven, L.A. County six and Ventura County four.
On Nov. 8, 2020, California reported a seven-day average of 6,200 new coronavirus cases a day. One month later, the state was reporting 26,000 new cases a day. In early January, the number jumped to more than 45,000. Daily reported caseloads didnt consistently fall back below 10,000 until mid-February.
Current case rates are roughly the same as last year at this time. For the seven-day period that ended Monday, California was reporting 5,720 new coronavirus cases a day, according to data compiled by The Times.
Roughly 69% of Californians have received at least one dose, and nearly 63% are fully vaccinated.
However, there are millions of residents statewide who have less protection against the coronavirus. Given the evidence that vaccine immunity can wane over time, officials stress that its important for everyone eligible particularly those who are at high risk of severe COVID-19 symptoms to get a booster shot.
Unvaccinated Californians continue to be disproportionately affected by the pandemic, state data show. Unvaccinated individuals are roughly seven times more likely to get COVID-19, nearly 10 times more likely to require hospitalization and 18 times more likely to die than those who are vaccinated.
The biggest concentration of coronavirus cases has expanded from Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming and is spreading farther south, through Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona.
States with low vaccination rates, such as Wyoming, where only 44.5% of residents are fully vaccinated, are seeing among the nations highest case rates, as are several states with vaccination rates similar to Californias 61.9%, such as Colorado at 62.1%, New Mexico at 62.6% and Minnesota at 61.6%, Rutherford said.
Even in highly vaccinated places like New Hampshire and Vermont, you can see how these northernmost tiers of counties are starting to develop outbreaks and more transmission, as is Alaska, Dr. George Rutherford, a UC San Francisco epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert, said recently at a campus forum.
Thats why Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota could be warning signs of Californias future, Rutherford said. Those three states have weekly coronavirus case rates that are triple what California is reporting now. Wyomings is more than 3 times worse than Californias.
Rutherford said that relatively speaking, L.A., Orange and Ventura counties are doing well. But he warned that San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties have a fairly high level of cases.
These factors all suggest that unvaccinated people should get their shots, including children ages 5 to 11 who just became eligible last week, Rutherford said.
People who have recovered from COVID-19 still need to get immunized, too. A study published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said COVID-19 survivors who remained unvaccinated were five times more likely to get a new coronavirus infection compared with fully vaccinated people who had never been infected.
See the rest here:
Should California worry about another winter COVID-19 surge? - Los Angeles Times
- New York Reports Five Omicron Cases - The New York Times - December 3rd, 2021
- Pfizer COVID pill benefited from research on SARS : Shots - Health News - NPR - December 3rd, 2021
- San Francisco Followed Covid Rules. Will Omicron Change the Playbook? - The New York Times - December 3rd, 2021
- COVID-19 survivors have higher risk of death 12 months after infection - Medical News Today - December 3rd, 2021
- Omicron could be tougher against the COVID-19 vaccine than other variants, Rice research shows - Houston Public Media - December 3rd, 2021
- CDC director says recommendations for protection the same, 'regardless of the variant': COVID updates - USA TODAY - December 3rd, 2021
- COVID-19 in South Dakota: 512 total new cases; Death toll rises to 2,357; Active cases at 7,572 - KELOLAND.com - December 3rd, 2021
- Coronavirus in Ohio Thursday update: Over 9,000 new cases - NBC4 WCMH-TV - December 3rd, 2021
- Northeast Ohio sees highest COVID hospitalization levels in the state - fox8.com - December 3rd, 2021
- Omicron and other coronavirus variants: What you need to know - Wink News - December 3rd, 2021
- Patriots again experience the disruptive power of Covid-19 - Pats Pulpit - December 3rd, 2021
- First Omicron case reported in the US: Live updates - CNN - December 2nd, 2021
- COVID-19: Top news stories about the coronavirus pandemic on 1 December | World Economic Forum - World Economic Forum - December 2nd, 2021
- How worried should we be about Omicron, the new coronavirus variant? - CNN - December 2nd, 2021
- Greece imposes monthly fines of 100 euros on the over-60s who refuse a Covid vaccine - CNBC - December 2nd, 2021
- UC San Diego hustling to find Omicron variant of coronavirus to help assess threat to public health - The San Diego Union-Tribune - November 29th, 2021
- Coronavirus variants: Here's what we know - CNN - November 29th, 2021
- OMICRON: Cases of new coronavirus variant are confirmed around the world - News 12 Bronx - November 29th, 2021
- South Africa informed the world of omicron. Then it was hit with travel bans : Coronavirus Updates - NPR - November 29th, 2021
- Will the Covid Vaccines Stop Omicron? Scientists Are Racing to Find Out. - The New York Times - November 29th, 2021
- Gov. Murphy got his COVID booster shot and says you should too - nj.com - November 29th, 2021
- Stocks and oil prices drop as the world reacts to new coronavirus variant omicron - NPR - November 27th, 2021
- World is put on high alert over the Omicron coronavirus variant - CNN - November 27th, 2021
- Active coronavirus cases surge in Ulster; Dutchess reports one new death - The Daily Freeman - November 27th, 2021
- The highest COVID death rate in the world is in Peru. How did that happen? : Goats and Soda - NPR - November 27th, 2021
- Daily coronavirus data for Colorado, BVSD and the University of Colorado Boulder, reported Nov. 26, 2021 - The Daily Camera - November 27th, 2021
- COVID-19 skeptic barely survives 102 days in hospital: Oregon man thought it was all a lie - oregonlive.com - November 27th, 2021
- CPW keeping eye on research documenting coronavirus in deer - The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel - November 25th, 2021
- Why are coronavirus cases and hospitalizations on the rise in the US? - ABC News - November 25th, 2021
- Serious concern as South Africa detects new coronavirus variant - Aljazeera.com - November 25th, 2021
- 548 more coronavirus cases have been reported across Maine - Bangor Daily News - November 25th, 2021
- Coronavirus: NYC families will get paid time off to have kids vaccinated - silive.com - November 25th, 2021
- These 7 N.J. ZIP codes have been hit hardest by COVID - nj.com - November 25th, 2021
- Coronavirus researcher Cameron Myhrvold is using 'spectacular' new technologies to seek and destroy viral pathogens - Princeton University - November 25th, 2021
- Coronavirus in Ohio Wednesday update: Another day of more than 6,000 new cases reported - NBC4 WCMH-TV - November 25th, 2021
- How Is COVID Testing Still This Confusing? - The Atlantic - November 25th, 2021
- COVID-19: Unvaccinated mother, 27, dies with coronavirus as her father calls for fines for people who refuse jab - Sky News - November 25th, 2021
- U.S. has already seen more COVID deaths in 2021 than 2020 before vaccines were available, as experts again warn pandemic is not over - MarketWatch - November 25th, 2021
- Active coronavirus cases in Wyoming up by 202 | Coronavirus | wyomingnews.com - Wyoming Tribune - November 25th, 2021
- City of Fresno | Corona Virus (COVID-19) - November 23rd, 2021
- As Thanksgiving Approaches, U.S. Virus Cases Tick Upward Once More - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2021
- With coronavirus on the rise again, what will another pandemic winter look like in Oklahoma? - Oklahoman.com - November 23rd, 2021
- State's COVID-19 Positive Rate Remains Above 3% Ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend - NBC Connecticut - November 23rd, 2021
- California has one of lowest coronavirus rates in US heading into holidays, but could surge again - Stockton Record - November 23rd, 2021
- N.J. reports 1,330 COVID cases, 7 deaths. Positive tests rising ahead of Thanksgiving holiday. - nj.com - November 23rd, 2021
- UK employers step up demand for workers vaccinated against Covid - The Guardian - November 23rd, 2021
- Mesa cancer survivor nearly dies from COVID-19 breakthrough infection - Arizona's Family - November 23rd, 2021
- Clashes break out in Brussels in protests over coronavirus restrictions - Reuters - November 23rd, 2021
- Protests have broken out across Europe in response to tightened COVID-19 restrictions - NPR - November 23rd, 2021
- Coronavirus tally: Global cases of COVID-19 top 258.3 million and Germany minister offers stark warning to unvaccinated - MarketWatch - November 23rd, 2021
- Doctor shares what to do so you don't 'bring COVID to your Thanksgiving dinner' - News 5 Cleveland - November 23rd, 2021
- On This Day: COVID-19 patient zero reportedly diagnosed in China in 2019 - The Jerusalem Post - November 23rd, 2021
- Coronavirus in Ohio Monday update: More than 4,300 cases reported - NBC4 WCMH-TV - November 23rd, 2021
- Could coronavirus stay on surfaces and infect you? New study - The Jerusalem Post - November 21st, 2021
- COVID live updates: All the coronavirus news you need to know - ABC News - November 21st, 2021
- Coronavirus in Oregon: 1,090 new cases, 28 deaths as feds recommend boosters for all adults - oregonlive.com - November 21st, 2021
- In South Sudan, Vaccines Are Overshadowed by Pressing Needs - The New York Times - November 21st, 2021
- Kalispell's hospital finds innovative method to fight COVID-19 - KPAX-TV - November 21st, 2021
- Coronavirus FAQ: What is long COVID? And what is my risk of getting it? - NPR - November 18th, 2021
- 'Sadly, this virus will never leave our society': Weekly new infections again surpass 600,000. COVID-19 updates - USA TODAY - November 18th, 2021
- Coronavirus spreads in deer and other animals. Scientists worry about what that means for people - CNN - November 18th, 2021
- COVID-19 Q&A: Should I invite non-vaccinated family to Thanksgiving dinner? - mlive.com - November 18th, 2021
- Netherlands Is Maxing Out Its Covid Testing Capacity - The New York Times - November 18th, 2021
- Hospitals across KELOLAND seeing increase in COVID-19 patients - KELOLAND.com - November 18th, 2021
- COVID cases are rising worldwide, is next variant on its way to Israel? - The Jerusalem Post - November 18th, 2021
- During 2021 NBA Finals, at least 12 people close to Bucks and Suns tested positive for COVID-19, per report - CBSSports.com - November 18th, 2021
- Researchers find way to filter coronavirus particles out of the air - Sky News - November 16th, 2021
- Is the COVID over? Dr. Fauci reveals the end of coronavirus is near - Deseret News - November 16th, 2021
- COVID in Georgia | COVID case, death, and hospitalization data Nov. 16 - 11Alive.com WXIA - November 16th, 2021
- U.S. COVID cases start to rise again as the holidays approach - NPR - November 16th, 2021
- Alaska reports 1,089 new coronavirus infections and two COVID-19 deaths over weekend - Anchorage Daily News - November 16th, 2021
- Why Dont We Have a Covid Vaccine for Pets? - The New York Times - November 16th, 2021
- Some Ways to Have COVID - New York Magazine - November 16th, 2021
- 'We are gravely concerned.' Henry Ford health officials warn of rising COVID hospitalizations - WXYZ - November 16th, 2021
- Treating severe COVID-19: Study assesses risks of dexamethasone - Medical News Today - November 16th, 2021
- 'We really don't know how they got it': Some Oklahoma deer have coronavirus antibodies - Oklahoman.com - November 14th, 2021
- Europe and Russia battle a new wave of COVID-19 - NPR - November 14th, 2021
- Coronavirus Today: Shifting the focus from herd immunity - Los Angeles Times - November 14th, 2021
- Broad Institute researcher wants to fade into obscurity, but first she hopes her COVID book is a bestseller - The Boston Globe - November 14th, 2021
- A farm winery in Colchester thrived during the coronavirus pandemic. But COVID-19 took its toll and the owner is selling. Asking price: $3.2 million... - November 14th, 2021