Will COVID surge this summer with new variants? Deseret News – Deseret News

COVID-19 levels have been lower than usual, but a new set of variants could make summer unpredictable when it comes to the novel coronavirus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that KP.2 has overtaken JN.1 and is now the dominant variant circulating in the U.S. As of the most recent update, which is the two weeks ending May 11, KP.2 accounts for 28.2% of the COVID-19 cases circulating.

KP.2 is one of the variants in a group called FLiRT, which Johns Hopkins University explains are named after the technical names for their mutations. FLiRT refers to a whole group of variants, including any that start with KP or JN, which appear to have independently picked up the same set of mutations, called convergent evolution. They are the children and grandchildren of the JN.1 variant that has been dominant recently.

The prevalence of these variants comes at a critical time, when experts are deciding how to formulate the fall COVID vaccine, the university notes. The article adds that the COVID-19 virus mutates often to keep the bodys antibodies from recognizing it, but that makes it harder for the virus to infect cells. Then it mutates again to improve its ability to bind in a cycle that happens over and over. The fact that these different variants are picking up the same mutations tells virologists that this combination of mutations is helping the virus accomplish these goals most efficiently.

Johns Hopkins reports that a recent JN.1 infection should provide pretty strong protection against all the FLiRT variants. Infection from a variant older than JN.1 probably isnt very protective, it added.

Will the virus surge in summer? Guesses are varied. Johns Hopkins deems it certainly possible. According to virologist Andy Pekosz, a professor in molecular biology and immunology at Johns Hopkins, The FLiRT variants would be high on my list of viruses that could cause another wave of infection in the U.S. That said, our definition of a wave has changed. While we still see case rates rise and fall throughout the year, we see much lower numbers of cases of hospitalization or deaths than we saw in the first couple years of the pandemic, he said.

In the good news category, he added that Paxlovid is as effective against FLiRT variants as against previous variants of COVID-19.

The New York Times, though, offers some bad news. Dr. David Ho, a virologist at Columbia University, told the Times that his early lab tests suggest that slight differences in KP.2s spike protein might make it better at evading our immune defenses and slightly more infectious that JN.1.

However, Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, the chief of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Healthcare System, told the Times that at this time, Im not seeing any major indications of anything ominous.

As virus experts try to predict surges, Today notes that the seasonality of COVID-19 is something scientists are still trying to understand. But one thing is obvious: This virus is now integrating itself into our population and our way of life, as Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious disease at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, put it in the article.

The proportion of cases caused by KP.2 is increasing while the proportion caused by other variants is decreasing, which suggests KP.2 has features that give it an advantage, the experts note, Today reported. The article added that low vaccination rates and immunity that is lagging over time could make the population vulnerable and allow the variant to surge.

COVID-19 infection itself is no longer the terror that it was early on. Now, the threat of long COVID-19 is what looms large. Dr. Grace McComsey, who is the main investigator of the Long COVID RECOVER study at University Hospitals Health System in Cleveland, told WebMD that long COVID is the bigger issue. Per the article, Research released from The Lancet Infectious Diseases recently showed that many of those who end up with long COVID a chronic illness marked by fatigue, brain fog, and heart and lung problems didnt necessarily have a severe bout with the infection.

The Global Center for Health Security at the University of Nebraska Medical Center has four predictions for COVID-19 this summer and beyond:

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Will COVID surge this summer with new variants? Deseret News - Deseret News